Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

Ec. Lavelle suggested that softer ground would be better. I'm sticking with merry king. Ticks enough boxes for me

I couldn't look at outsiders in this race. Most of the leading contenders look up well up to speed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He is very well handicapped on his penultimate run. Ignore his National run.

Dismiss him at your peril:
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Stats for the 12yo -

Left handed: (hurdles) 1,4,6,1,7 (chase) 1,1,4,1,1,2(nse,kauto),1,UR,1,2(half a length), PU

The UR and PU are at Aintree.

After a break he is: 190days(1st), 337(1st), 206(2nd,nse), 226(1st), 680(2nd-half a length)

In November he is 4,1,1,2,1 ;)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
And here's a good mugs [each-way] double:

Imperial Leader 16/1
Imperial Commander 20/1

Best prices guaranteed.
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Trainer messaged Paul Jones today that "Imperial Leader will need the run" having previously been quoted in the Paul Jones Horses To Follow book "make sure to catch him first time out"
 
Will "need the run", even though he's being retired after today's race? You just couldn't make it up. :)
Lord Windermere for me.
 
to be fair..IC has always run best fresh..main part of his make up..so the won't be 100% seems like an excuse in waiting tbh

he could win obviously..but he hasn't got a profile that fits this race has he?...horse on downward spiral wins Hennessey??
 
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I see at the moment it's generally 10/1 bar one .

What's the chances there are five trading at 9/1 or less by off time.
 
EC1 said:
to be fair..IC has always run best fresh..main part of his make up..so the won't be 100% seems like an excuse in waiting tbh

he could win obviously..but he hasn't got a profile that fits this race has he?...horse on downward spiral wins Hennessey??
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He could be another "Our Vic" who at 12 won Peter Marsh and a 2nd BSGC at Haydock....
 
That 159 was when he blew up in heavy ground at the end of his prep race for the Gold Cup. Entirely forgivable, especially since they said afterwards they'd left plenty to work on and he'd actually run better than they'd anticipated.

Of course he isn't progressive. No one is arguing that he is but he is incredibly well handicapped if he's still up to running to 170+.

Did anyone pick up on Sam TD's remarks this morning? He didn't say he was hopeful of a big run. He said he was hopeful the horse was still good enough "to smash them up".
 
Desert Orchid said:
So do I but I thought the actual words used were intriguing.
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if its the first time he ever said it..it may be significant..if he says it every time he thinks his horse will win..then no relevance whatsover

at the end of the day..this is just about the hardest handicap of the season to win..the only time someone could say that with confidence is after they pass the lollipop
 
small e/w play on invictus purely because if finding his old form he's tremendously in at the weights

tough race to crack
 
Had a good look at the race this morning, and finding it hard to get away from Rocky Creek. He could be sweetly handicapped off 141, based on strict lines through Dynaste and Harry Topper, and whilst he probably has his limitations, his form generally stands a bit of scrutiny.

Have had a medium-sized dunt at 10/1.
 
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JamesRB said:
small e/w play on invictus purely because if finding his old form he's tremendously in at the weights

tough race to crack
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Alfie Spinner provides a line to Invictus and Highland Lodge..

Invictus beat AS by 6 lengths giving 4lb...if AS is about a 140 horse that makes Invictus 150..so is 5 lb "well in" here.

Standing Ovation easily beat AS by 5 lengths receiving 6..makes SO about the same or better horse than AS...Highland Lodge gave 26lb to SO and lost by 1.5L

which one is best in?
 
I have both on the same adjusted mark. HL's is based on this year's form, Invictus's is on his Feltham form 2 years ago.

The received wisdom is that if Invictus had raced last season he'd have made average second-season improvement (from a mark in the mid-high 150s) to the mid-high 160s (conservatively), so the fact he's been dropped something like 10lbs as compensation for his absence could well be Christmas come early for him and connections. Highland Lodge's much-improved form against Standing Ovation has already been taken into account in the ORs.

Of course, received wisdom doesn't win races...
 
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Highland Lodge is still well in by some way imo DO...SO when running under his conditions is about a 130ish horse..HL is some way better than him..gave 26lbs to him lost by 1.5
 
That's what the race is all about: form in the book against potential.

HL (and several others) have the form in the book. Lord Windermere and several others have the potential.

Last year it was the potential types that emerged victorious. The year before it was form in the book (coinciding with potential not being fulfilled).

You takes your pick and you pay your cash...
 
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