Hennessy

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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As erection inducing as Djakadam's mark looks he is incredibly short for one so inexperienced given how much of a test this race is.

No surprise that I'm on Fingal Bay. This test will suit him and his run behind Dynaste a couple of years back reads well now.

I'll also have a bit of Smad Place at around 10s. He jumped superbly in the RSA, has won at Newbury and doesn't look badly handicapped.
 
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Good man yourself, Euro [for starting the thread].

I haven't seen the entries yet but I've been looking forward to this race for weeks. I even toyed with the idea of making the visit down. The entire first half of my season revolves around this race.
 
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Won't hide in my enthusiasm for Djakadam. Granted he is inexperienced, but one I hope and think he can overcome.
The likes of Fingal Bay, Smad Place and Many Clouds look the obvious dangers. Rocky Creek will surely run a game race too.
 
Buywise is interesting if he turns up. It's amazing how close he got in the PP considering the mistakes he made and you would have to think a flatter track might eliminate some of those errors. His win at Taunton last season over 3 miles on heavy (3 finishers in a 9 runner event) suggests he should stay as well.
 
I've just checked Djakadam's JLT race and video.

I can see me not backing him at this stage but it's early days. I see I have gone some way lower than RPRs for the race itself and Walsh preferred the well-beaten Felix Yonger on the day so it's hard to be sure that Djakadam would have fared any better than him.

I'm going to run off the entries this evening and get started...
 
Euronymous said:
Buywise is interesting if he turns up. It's amazing how close he got in the PP considering the mistakes he made and you would have to think a flatter track might eliminate some of those errors. His win at Taunton last season over 3 miles on heavy (3 finishers in a 9 runner event) suggests he should stay as well.
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I echo that regards Buywise, would be interesting but think I have read trainer say he won't go.
His jumping does clearly need more work but for sure he does have an engine.
 
Smad Place for me too. Tempted by Fingal Bay but not sure there's much reason to suppose he'll fare better than his previous chasing attempts
 
He never had the stamina test he needs during that shortened campaign, they were all small field contests short of three miles
 
I'm interrupting my form study to say I've taken 50/1 ap/ew about one. It might not get in and I might be miles out with my mark for it but if I'm right...

I'll name that horse later in the week :ninja:
 
I've now looked at the rest of the form bar some of the very old stuff.

My immediate impression is that this might be the most competitive renewal for many years. Djakadam requires a bit of a leap of faith. It isn't quite like Ever Blessed or Strong Flow and you have to wonder if Walsh opted for Felix Yonger in the JLT (was it because of the trip?) where does Djakadam stand in relation to him. Then again you need to wonder whether Djakadam would have finished in front of FY that day. Then again, the Irish novice chasers took a bit of a doing at Cheltenham and Aintree so maybe they will need to have improved more than their British counterparts over the summer.

I'm now half-wishing I'd held off for an hour or two with that other bet. I'd still have been interested and would probably still have taken a chance with it but there are far more sitting on higher ratings than I would have expected. Far more, hence my assertion that it looks so competitive. I'm wondering if I've ever had so many you could fancy to win a normal renewal. I'll check back through my files and see.
 
Best price now 40 in only a couple of places, as short as 16/1 with Ladbrokes. At least I can claim to have got a price...
 
If they were to race on good ground I'd weigh in heavy on Djakadam.

As it is, I think he'll find it hard to see off the likes of Fingal Bay and Rocky Creek.

I remember Mullins pulling Djakadam at the tail end of last season because of deep ground. He's on such a low mark they might have to run unless it's bottomless. For me the ground on the day is a massive factor re. Djakadam.
 
Obviously impressive how many good judges on here rate Djakadam but the price is surely the Mullins factor. Walsh has consistently ridden an alternative when he's had the choice and he's as good a judge as there is so it will be interesting to see if he rides on Saturday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not higher than Le Reve, I should clarify. Just higher than I anticipated.
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Just to clarify again, Le Reve is the outsider I was talking about. I thought I'd given its name by the time I'd made that post. I think that race at Sandown was much stronger than RPRs rate it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My immediate impression is that this might be the most competitive renewal for many years.

...

I'm wondering if I've ever had so many you could fancy to win a normal renewal. I'll check back through my files and see.
Click to expand...

I've now checked back through a few things.

Firstly, it does look like a ridiculously competitive renewal. By that, I mean I have a notional idea of what kind of mark it takes to win an average race. Most years, the Hennessy looks like requiring a bit more than that to win, which is usually how it ends up. This year the number of entries with prospects of posting a mark beyond the average is greater than in any of my records so whatever emerges ahead of that lot will have to be incredibly well handicapped in the general scheme of things.

Secondly, this is the lowest class [going into the race] Hennessy for some years. The top weights at this stage this year, Houblon Des Obeaux and Triolo D'Alene, will race off 157 (and not the 155 published). That's the lowest since Cornish Rebel headed the card on 153 in 2006, the year after RSA winner Trabolgan topped the weights on 151. The average rating of the first six in 2006, won by State Of Play, was just 137 which happens to be the rating of the bottom weight this time. In between we've had Denman running off 182!

I'm not a great one for stats in these big races. As I've said before there is only one stat that matters: the winner is always very well handicapped. It doesn't matter what weight it has to carry so long as it is being asked to carry a lot less than its ability merits. Denman won it off 161 in 2007.

Djakadam may well be very leniently weighted but it isn't evident on his public form so I wouldn't be rushing in at the price. I backed Lord Windermere in this last year as an RSA winner likely to turn up in the Gold Cup but off 154 in this. He disappointed.
 
My first look from a handicapping point of view, it looks like this on my calcs. I would hope the winner is in the top 5 or 6 at this point. Will look more in depth later in the week. I hope Djakadam runs though as it will make a lot of difference to any value in this race as he will be very poor value imo.

175Midnight Prayer
169Wychwoods Brook
168Monbeg Dude
168Merry King
165Unioniste
165What A Warrior
164Rocky Creek
163Triolo D´Alene
163Ballynagour
163Hadrian´s Approach
163Annacotty
163Via Sundown
163Edmund Kean
162Victors Serenade
161Djakadam
160Smad Place
159Many Clouds
158Black Thunder
157The Druids Nephew
157Le Reve
154Houblon Des Obeaux
150Vino Griego
149Fingal Bay

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Any speed raters value the Feltham form from last year where Annacotty beat Third Intention 10L on soft ground? He then ran a game race off 11:12 at Cheltenham in another novice event, looking well held before staying on again.

The RSA on GD ground wouldn't have suited, and his seasonal reappearance at Kempton looked a muddling affair over 2M4F without his customary blinkers on.
I think he's a dark horse in this, seems like one who may appreciate the step up in trip and soft ground would be good for him.
 
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