Hennessy

Maruco said:
The Hennessy is a nice stepping stone if you've got your horse at 80% at the end of Nov. You might drop lucky and get a nice bit of place money, or actually get reassessed and lose a couple of pounds.
Click to expand...

I also meant to pick up on this figure, as we hear it alot, and even though it's figure of speech, it still needs challenging now on then (or placing in context). If the trainer puts a horse into an apex race that is only 80% fit it won't complete. It's the same in any sport when your dealing with apex performers and where the margins between success and failure are traded in 1 percents and fractions of.

Take any sport you care to think of and then reduce the participants performance by 20% across any proxy indicators and see what you're left with. If Teaforthree were to be competitive at Newbury whilst not being tuned for the day, he need to be nearer to 98%

Use tennis. If Andy Murray's serves at only 80% of his normal speed (a womans serve). If he increases his unforcred errors by 20%, or if his energy levels drop by the same amount (about 0.3 secs in reaction time), he'll lose in straight sets and do well to win a single game.
 
I can't get over the fact WM is sending a 5 year old to a race that no horse of that age has ever won.

He must think an awful lot of him and he seldom gets it wrong so he will do for me.

Merry King ran a big race in The Tommy Whittle a while back on this type of ground so he could go close of a low weight if taking his chance
 
Tanlic said:
I can't get over the fact WM is sending a 5 year old to a race that no horse of that age has ever won.

He must think an awful lot of him and he seldom gets it wrong so he will do for me.
Click to expand...

That sounds very logical but does it stand up to scrutiny?

2013: Prince De Beauchene 16/1 gubbed out of sight
2013: Terminal 33/1 gubbed out of sight
2009: Snowy Morning 14/1 gubbed out of sight
2007: Snowy Morning 9/2f fell
2006: Bothar Na 25/1 pulled up

In the big scheme of things he doesn't have many runners and arguably only Snowy Morning and maybe Prince De Beauchene (also touted as a Gold Cup/National prospect) had really serious chances (I think I probably backed all of those listed above bar PDB in the belief he wasn't sending them over for a gallop but maybe he was).

He has said he sees Djakadam as a possible Gold Cup type but would anyone seriously fancy it as a 6yo come March? Even if it did win here?

I was on Lord Windermere last year too. Gubbed out of sight but came back and won the Gold Cup.

Turban was awful last week on a 'raid'. Faugheen won but was hardly awesome.

How strong is the market in this? Could they make more money laying it? (Just playing Devil's Advocate :))
 
I really like same place for this. He's tough and jumps. Has a touch of class too.

The favourite might be in at the weights but I can't have such an inexperienced horse at that price. It's doesnt matter weight they carry if the whole experience of such a different race is all too much.
 
The more I look at this race the more I'm drawn to Merry King as my e/way value bet but I'm prepared to wait until the day of the race as I do not see the price changing much.
 
swedish chef said:
The more I look at this race the more I'm drawn to Merry King as my e/way value bet but I'm prepared to wait until the day of the race as I do not see the price changing much.
Click to expand...

I've been looking at the card off and on since the other night. I'm being pulled all over the shop by possibles! Glad I took the 50s about Le Reve, mind.

Probably the only one I just wouldn't consider backing is Djakadam. Forget all the joshing about subterfuge etc, even if I thought it was a good thing I'd struggle to justify backing it at that price. There will be a market on Saturday morning without him. I might end up looking at that.
 
Long Run had achieved vastly more at the same age, Frankel, and had racked-up nine runs over fences before he ran in the Gold Cup. I'm not sure that comparison stands a great deal of scrutiny, to be honest.
 
That is the response I expected, and valid.

I was just answering the 6yr old question. Let's leave it there shall we. Let's lot dampen my hopes eh :D
 
On his Lexus run, a win that saw Bobs Worth installed as favourite for the Gold Cup after beating First Lieutenant (Hennessey's first and third in their own right), Unioniste should be on the paddock from a mark of 151 having got within 11L's of the winner in receipt of a pound. That no one seems to fancy him, nor is there any market move for him does make me think that this isn't his though
 
Warbler said:
On his Lexus run, a win that saw Bobs Worth installed as favourite for the Gold Cup after beating First Lieutenant (Hennessey's first and third in their own right), Unioniste should be on the paddock from a mark of 151 having got within 11L's of the winner in receipt of a pound. That no one seems to fancy him, nor is there any market move for him does make me think that this isn't his though
Click to expand...


I fancy him..he's 5th on my starting figures and at the moment is top because i've ruled the top 4 out...i think
 
I'm wondering if he isn't a horse that doesn't take his racing well, and need to be caught in the first couple of outings. He looked pretty imperious at Aintree at about thsi time last year, and then fizzled away
 
Unioniste is an interesting one for sure. Running off a lower mark than 18 months ago when winning. Has had issues with ulcers like Al Ferof which are sorted now.
Will love the ground too. Nicholls is very good at getting them back. Can see why he would be of interest. Though taking it a bit on trust that he is the same horse.
 
Been cut to 16's today. I suppose some wretched seagull has found it? Gives him chance to load another barrel for Saturday, plus what ever he'd identified longer range
 
Last edited:
Any of the field not yet mentioned as being fancied?

I think it isn't hard to argue a good or better case for just about every one of them.
 
Back
Top