Hennessy

Had there been any cut in the ground, Smad Place would've won last season's RSA and (to all intents and purpose) been unbeaten over fences, and half the 8/1 he is currently.
As an improving 7yo, who goes best fresh and has clearly been kept back for the race, I wouldn't look any further for the winner (barring proper heavy ground, of course).
 
reet hard said:
Had there been any cut in the ground, Smad Place would've won last season's RSA and (to all intents and purpose) been unbeaten over fences, and half the 8/1 he is currently.
As an improving 7yo, who goes best fresh and has clearly been kept back for the race, I wouldn't look any further for the winner (barring proper heavy ground, of course).
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I'm not sure any soft-ground horses were inconvenienced by the ground at Cheltenham. Alan King said after the race: No excuses. Travelled, jumped, did everything right, just met one too good on the day, couldn't have been more pleased.

I make that run a 9lbs improvement on his previous best so assuming he is - but how many aren't? - coming into this on a curve he must have a proper shout. I'm also wondering if I'm a bit conservative with my ratings for the RSA but O'Faolains Boy bombed next time at Aintree (but that's always forgivable) while the others appear to be beating each other in turns, suggesting they are much of a muchness. Then again, Sam Winner came out and won a decent handicap from a big improver, the pair miles clear, at Cheltenham the other week. That represents about 5lbs' improvement on my RSA figure (a career best then) for him. So if Smad Place can find the same improvement he has to have a real chance. There's also the possibility I've under-rated that victory by Sam Winner but if so it would also enhance The Druids Nephew's already bright prospects. I actually thought Geraghty held on to the latter a half-furlong too long that day, mind.

I think Smad Place is a very possible winner, but just one of many!
 
EC1 said:
My first look from a handicapping point of view, it looks like this on my calcs. I would hope the winner is in the top 5 or 6 at this point. Will look more in depth later in the week. I hope Djakadam runs though as it will make a lot of difference to any value in this race as he will be very poor value imo.

175 Midnight Prayer
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You have This one well clear on the handicap EC1.....
Just looking at declarations and there is an apprentice jockey (Tom Bellamy) booked for this one taking a further 5lbs off.
Still 25/1 available with 2 or 3 bookmakers...... The 50's on the exchange though, seems suspiciously over generous..
Anyone any further insight here?
 
But it was the lack of cut that made the RSA an insufficient test of stamina for Smad Place, DO. His whole profile screams 'strong stayer' and, while he was going away from the others he just got done for toe by the winner on the run in. That's unlikely to be repeated in a soft ground Hennessy.
He's also reported to have strengthened up since last season, and worked better than ever recently. Hard to see what's not to like about the horse, imho.
 
Double Handful said:
You have This one well clear on the handicap EC1.....
Just looking at declarations and there is an apprentice jockey (Tom Bellamy) booked for this one taking a further 5lbs off.
Still 25/1 available with 2 or 3 bookmakers...... The 50's on the exchange though, seems suspiciously over generous..
Anyone any further insight here?
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For these big races i make initial ratings as above as a start point...then look..from top of the list down at reasons why they can or can't win. Anything that doesn't get ruled out by key trends..and i mean key ones..or straight form reading..stays. At this point in time..i've looked at the trends and that one gets ruled out.

I'll add another post later in week just to clarify what i'll actually back in it. That will probably win now leaving egg on face:). I might have to have a fiver on now at those prices just to stop me departing from an upstairs window shortly after the race.
 
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I backed Midnight Prayer this morning (55). Wants soft ground and a proper test, and isn't too harshly handicapped off 141.

I confess I was all for place-laying Djakadam, though that's when I though his OR for this was 149 (no idea why I thought this) rather than the actual 142 that it is. Still ruled-out on price-grounds for me.
 
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reet hard said:
But it was the lack of cut that made the RSA an insufficient test of stamina for Smad Place, DO. His whole profile screams 'strong stayer' and, while he was going away from the others he just got done for toe by the winner on the run in. That's unlikely to be repeated in a soft ground Hennessy.
He's also reported to have strengthened up since last season, and worked better than ever recently. Hard to see what's not to like about the horse, imho.
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Is the RSA ever an insufficient test of stamina, reet? Was it maybe the fact he is a strong stayer that got him into second that day? After all, it was his best ever run by some way. I was waiting for this morning's Weekender to see what King was saying about him and you're right. He's reportedly stronger, been aimed at the race and has been to the course for a workout. As you say, what's not to like and he is one of the ones I like but it's the Hennessy and there are many with very likeable chances. It's not the kind of race in which I'd want just one horse on my side!

I also have Midnight Prayer very well handicapped on his form in the 4-miler and in is heavy-ground win at Warwick before that. Whether he has the speed for a race of this nature is maybe another matter but there has to be the chance that there really isn't a Gold Cup prospect in the field this year so he has to be considered, especially at the price.
 
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With what looks like being a test ground wise, it's possible a few of these will fall in a hole up the straight.
With that in mind, looking for a stayer to run in to the money is worthwhile. While I can't see him winning I can see him running in to a place. Merry King 5th last year on better ground, will be running off a 2lbs lower mark. The slower ground could bring him in to play late on.
One maybe for the e/w backers.
 
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an expensive risky prep though ..surely an easier assignment would be order of the day if prepping..a race like the Hennessey is likely to scare a horse to death than prep it
 
So he's using a race with £100K to the winner, as a prep for a race worth £60K to the winner?

Please choose from one of the following two options;

1. What a t*it.
2. My hole he is
 
I don't think it is unusual (but am willing to be corrected) to have a horse run in a more valuable race than its true target. Often they can run better than the bare form of a heavy defeat, allowing them to go under the radar to an extent next time.

Alan King (quoted in the RP site):
His main target is the Welsh National and he'd have one run before that, towards the end of next month. (Oct)
We're taking our time with him this season and his main target is the Welsh National, probably with a prep run towards the end of this month. (Nov)
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The Hennessy is towards the end of this month.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think it is unusual (but am willing to be corrected) to have a horse run in a more valuable race than its true target. Often they can run better than the bare form of a heavy defeat, allowing them to go under the radar to an extent next time.

Alan King (quoted in the RP site):


The Hennessy is towards the end of this month.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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i would imagine if you wanted to go under the radar..then the last race i'd personally pick is the hennessey..probably the most scrutinized handicap of the year once its been run.
 
Teaforthree, anyone? Season 2012-13... had won the four-miler... 14/1 for the Hennessy... gubbed out of sight... 11/4f at Chepstow next time... beaten half-a-length...
 
I'm with DO here.

If the target is the Welsh National The Hennessy is a nice stepping stone if you've got your horse at 80% at the end of Nov. You might drop lucky and get a nice bit of place money, or actually get reassessed and lose a couple of pounds.

Either way The Hennessy is a good test of stamina and jumping and a perfect prep.

He just beat me to the Teaforthree comparison as well.
 
teaforthree doesn't prove owt imo....firstly it didn't win

:)

just running in two races doesn't mean you are plotting for the second race..you just ran in both races..lots of horses run in both would have thought
 
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I'll concede the point re Teaforthree, however, I'm with EC1 - if he loses at Newbury and wins at Chepstow, it doesn't mean that they go to Newbury with no intention/expectation of winning.

To be fair, the trip may indeed be too sharp for him, and he may indeed be nothing more than a dour stayer, and this may indeed be considered nothing more than a gallop round. But that doesn't mean that they won't try to win it, if he's in contention four-out. At the price, I'll take my chances that they're not just going to get a blow into him.
 
and if they did win the first..then it may not run in the second..thats not a plot..its trying to win one or tother

a plot is like that one of Ramsdens that they plotted at Newmarket..one of the best plots you'll see...then next time wins Chester Cup
 
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Yes, obviously there are plots and there are plots.

Teaforthree's connections were, iirc, making very similar noises about targeting the Welsh National prior to the Hennessy but saying they thought he could run well at Newbury. Obviously they would have taken the win in the first race, which might even have prompted them to bypass the second, but plenty of readers were saying he had run a perfectly good trial.

I think the fact T43 didn't win is entirely irrelevant. He was off for his life. If the 11/4 sp was his true chance then he was genuinely 4/11 not to win.

Doesn't Aidan O'Brien run the odd one in the Derby in preparation for the Irish version?

I admit the 'under the radar' comment was probably inappropriate in this context. I would ask the jury to disregard it.
 
AO'B runs droves of horses out of their class to prepare them for later targets. Happens often enough in both spheres of racing.
 
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