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Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
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Enjoying the Cheltenham discussions but we have a nice few punting days coming up so who is the xmas money on?

I've done Barbers Shop ew @ 24s for the King George.

The Welsh National looks a race with a good punting shape to it as the front two look really short in the market. The Nicholls horse is priced on trainer identity. La Beau Bai on his Chepstow form. I'm gonna go with Halcon and Gone to Lunch. The latter looks too big at 19 on the machine, it makes me think he might not run.

Cooldine looks a bet at around 5s in the Lexus.

I'm most nervous about Sizing Europe. He's my biggest AP bet for Cheltenham and the race he runs in ( I really can't be arsed typing it, what is wrong with them?) looks hot.
 
I am waiting for betting to open on the Desert Orchid Chase, at which point I will be lumping on Fix The Rib.
 
Cooldine is interesting at the price but all the vibes suggest he has been slow to come to hand and will need this quite badly.

I think Sizing Europe is the most exciting novice chaser I have seen this season and I expect an electric performance from him. In saying that I think Fosters Cross could be a decent bet in the race as he looked to be going equally as well at the Nicholls horse last time at Cheltenham and looks to have a fair engine. 12/1 is far far too big particularly as I think Captain Cee Bee is a very fragile third favourite and I am yet to be fully convinced by Osana.
 
SE will handle the conditions whatever they are. I echo Gal's comments on Cooldine. Vibes are not overly positive and it does seem that he will need the run. Imagine the Irish Hennessy will be where we might see the real Cooldine again
 
Euronymous said:
That tempers enthusiasm somewhat. What is the ground likely to be like at Leopardstown?
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Tempers enthusiasm? Maybe it came across wrong - I think Sizing Europe will win and win well but I think Fosters Cross is much better value to come second to him than Osana or Captain Cee Bee.
 
I'm very surprised that Go Native is as big a price as what he is for the Christmas Hurdle. Granted Binocular's form from last year is superior to anything that Go Native has achieved, but I'd need much bigger than 5/4 to contemplate backing him to reproduce on the back of such a lacklustre effort at Newcastle.

Although I suspect they won't crawl like they did at Newcastle, it's very hard to see the race being run at anything but a relatively ordinary gallop, even if Straw Bear takes part.

Starluck has been well supported, but in truth his form really doesn't stack up against the best of these and I think connections would be far better going the valuable handicap route with him. Off 149 he's make lots of appeal in the Totesport Trophy and whilst he's likely to put up a career-best effort, I think his price is too short at 5's as I still think he has something to prove off the bridle. In fact, he's never won a race over obstacles when Murphy has had to get vigorous on him.

I was lukewarm to Go Native after the Fighting Fifth, and still am to his Champion Hurdle hopes, but everytime I watch the Fighting Fifth, I'm more and more impressed and think he should be much more like a 6/4 chance than the 3.4 he's trading at on betfair at present.
 
DK Weld looks to have something of a strangle-hold on the Leopardstown maiden hurdles on Stephens Day, though Gigginstown House look to have quite a formidable team.

Mr. Cracker and Quito De La Roque (will be very tough to beat over 2m6f at Limerick) have both put in eye-catching performances the last day, whilst Gates Of Rome was given a ride that very much suggested that the best was yet to come at Naas.

The ground is all important in the 2m1f handicap chase at Leopardstown. The likes of Port La Chaine, Rock Street (convinced this horse has a decent handicap in him!) and Fantoche all look intriguing propositions, with the proviso of good ground.

Will have a look through the rest of the cards tonight.
 
Don't really like Meade at the Festival for one, considering the horses he has had through his hands his record there is pretty appaling. Also I much prefer the grinders that are likely to find off the bridle, the likes of Celestial Halo and Zaynar who may come under pressure first but will keep pulling out extra. One of the reasons I'm also against Starluck. Think he's a decent enough place lay at 2.8 with only the first 2 up for grabs and Binocular, Go Native and Pepe Simo running for you.
 
I'll be opposing Sizing Europe at anything shorter than 2.20 for reasons already outlined in the novice chasers thread BTW.
 
There's a horse that a friend of mine is involved with called "The Hard Hat" trained by colm murphy. He came 2nd in a maiden hurdle first time out and is due to run in a bumper around 26th/27th in either leopardstown or Downpatrick. They are very sweet on him. His price will probably depend on what Mullins or Meade has in the race!
 
Long Run is an absolute shoe-in in the Feltham. I can't believe he gets 7 pounds from the rest which alleviates any fears about Sam Waley-Cohen. I've backed him quite heavily for the RSA.

I would be a layer of Sizing Europe at current prices. Still to do anything off the bridle in a long, long time. His easy wins do nothing for me knowing what we do about his fading from decent positions the last season or so over hurdles.

Bellvano should be hard to beat in the first at Kempton tomorrow but is quite skinny.

I still haven't decided about the xmas hurdle which makes me think it's not a race to be touched.

Agree about Barber's Shop and will back him each way in the without Kauto market.

One of the most interesting runners for me is Royal and Regal in the first at Leopardstown tomorrow. A favourite of mine on the flat, and I had no idea he was sold to go jumping. Does anyone know much about the trainer, Luke Comer? I can't believe (unless I am missing something everyone else is aware of) he is double figures when Rite of Passage (also unraced over hurdles) is 1/2. Can anyone explain that one?

I'm really sweet on The totherone for the Welsh National, and have had him backed since before his last run at double figures. May also look at La Beau Bai on the day as there could well be a flood of money sending the Nicholls horse off favourite. Halcon a good bet to place only.
 
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Hamm said:
One of the most interesting runners for me is Royal and Regal in the first at Leopardstown tomorrow. A favourite of mine on the flat, and I had no idea he was sold to go jumping. Does anyone know much about the trainer, Luke Comer? I can't believe (unless I am missing something everyone else is aware of) he is double figures when Rite of Passage (also unraced over hurdles) is 1/2. Can anyone explain that one?
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Luke Comer is a nutter - been paying good money for horses with problems for years now with very little success. One of the early examples was Chimes At Midnight who was third in the St Leger for Aidan O'Brien. Comer managed to get him in banded company within a couple of years. Royal And Regal appears to have a serious problem judged on how quickly he emptied in the Lonsdale Stakes at York and I'd be amazed if Comer got a tune out of him.
 
According to the RP Comer trained him in the Leger,can't say I can remember whether that is right or wrong although I'd be surprised if you called it wrong.
I see he used to be ridden by Wayne Smith,presumably the same jockey who is now Lisa Jones' other half.
Comer certainly struggles to get much out of these horses although Bashkirov has done ok since leaving Aidan.
Let's hope Royal and Royale doesn't end up in classified races at the sandpit like Chimes at Midnight did.
 
Alderluck in the kempton handicap hurdle. Ground was against him last time perhaps and the previous run beating Fairyland looks good now. That was over course and distance too. Yet to study race hard, but he stands out at this point

I agree about Go Native being a better prospect than many suggested, but is he showing a bit weak in the market? at 2s? Not market obsessed, but slight concern there

I dont like betting places in races like the KGV. Take the view that a top form KS will burn them off and that can lead to anything running a place. Dont like place betting full stop i suppose

Hamm... how does Long Runs french form stack up though? Ive no idea frankly
 
Sort of aware of that Rory, but how good is the grade one competition at the moment? Without seeing how any of them have run up against british/irish runners, all a bit tricky

Race to watch i think
 
Arkwright said:
According to the RP Comer trained him in the Leger,can't say I can remember whether that is right or wrong although I'd be surprised if you called it wrong.
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Apologies Arkers - he did indeed move to Comer after winning his maiden. The trainer has however gone since January 2001 since winning a race under NH rules, a losing run of 76. What's most worrying is that many of his horses are either very well bred and/or have come from Aidan O'Brien and should be able to win races when given a chance.
 
Long Run has had four starts over fences - his winning debut (in listed company) then a defeat to Rubi Ball in the Ferdinand Dufaure on the undercard of the Grand Steeplechase card (the first three pulled 20 clear of the fourth) when he wasn't beaten far, a victory over Rubi Ball by 6 lengths in receipt of roughly 6lbs in a Grade 3 at 2m 4.5f in October as his prep for the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois (which he won easily). I've seen the horse four times on various trips to France now and have been impressed with him from the very first time (his victory in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres hurdle last November) - only concern's I'd have are with regards to the ground, he's only ever raced on soft thus far in France and the only time Sam Waley-Cohen has ridden him was in defeat to Kadabi and Blue Bresil in a 3yo Hurdle in April this year.


http://www.equidiavideo.fr/public/GrandPrix.aspx you can view Long Run's latest victory above - it's free to register and just select "Maurice Gillois" from the "Main Grand-Prix"'s list.
 
Rory and IS summed it up nicely.

Ground is good to soft tomorrow according to Clifford who i've just seen on TV so shpuld be fine for him.

He would need to regress to not win, and the 7 pounds he receives is not really needed.

Of course there's every chance he wont win, but I make him an odds on shot, with my main doubt being Sam WC.
 
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