A bit of work gone into this one
William Hill Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+):
A traditional handicap over hurdles at Sandown run on the Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival. A bonus of £100,000 is available to the winner who goes on to win any race at Cheltenham; it was last achieved by David Pipe’s Gaspara in 2007. Since then six of the seven winners have attempted the double and only Ashkazar, again from the Pipe stable, has come close when he finished second in the Fred Winter handicap in 2008. A maximum field of 24 normally means a generous gallop ensues over the eight hurdles and extended two miles, the winner having their attitude and resolution severely tested on the climb to the line. Only six of this year’s field don’t hold a Cheltenham entry so there will be plenty of connections dreaming of the bonus in addition to the near £40,000 first prize.
Trends:
Being a big field Handicap the Imperial Cup lends itself quite well to statistical trends.
Age: Horses aged from 4 to 6 years old have performed better in recent seasons. Well supported four year olds are always worth noting and winning horses aged seven and over are usually very useful performers from the flat.
Weight: Every winner in the last decade has carried less than eleven stone, Top weights have been unplaced in eight of those races although they have made the frame in two of the last three renewals.
Official Rating: Recent seasons has seen horses rated from 124 to 130 doing best but that could change this year with just five horses falling within that band.
Trainers: The Pipe stable (both David and Martin) target this race and they have been the most successful in recent years winning four times in the past decade. Their four year old representatives have a particularly good record with two wins and a place from just three entries. There have been single wins for Laura Mongan, Charlie Longsdon, Lucy Wadham, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson and Adrian McGuiness. His winner aside, Nicky Henderson has seen a dozen other entries all finish unplaced. Of his twelve entries over the past decade, Paul Nicholls has seen three placed.
Price: Surprisingly for such a competitive race, the market leader has fared quite well with four of the last ten renewals going to the favourite.
Breeding: Just over half the runners over the past decade have been French or Irish bred but they have been responsible for 90% of the winners; they were all aged from 4 to 7.
Form: The majority of winners over the past decade had been placed on their most recent start and recorded their highest RPR which was 21 to 55 days prior to the Imperial Cup. Lightly raced horses fare best and Novice Hurdlers have a decent record; both point to a horse who has yet to fully show his hand. Lightly campaigned horses do well, as do good quality ex flat horses. Good previous Course form is an asset but not essential.
The runners:
Camping Ground (5 yr 11-12): French import from the Robert Walford stable who ran out an easy winner over fences at Warwick on his debut for current connections. A winner of five of his eight hurdle/chases in France, the last three easily. The horse he beat on his final start in his native country has won all four completed starts since. Camping Ground falls into the ‘could be anything’ category but does have to give the rest of this field seven pounds and upwards. Stays further so a well run race at this trip on a stiff track should suit. Won on G/S ground on his debut but only raced on softer since.
Calipto (5 yr 11-5): One of the leading Juveniles last season and finished placed in both his starts in this campaign. Made his handicap debut in the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time out. Beaten 13 lengths into fourth of the sixteen runners in a race where the three to finish in front of him were favoured by racing prominently. Sported the first time hood there but that is dispensed with for this race. Versatile regarding ground conditions but probably needs to improve to win from his current mark. That’s not impossible and, despite his relatively poor record in this race, anything Paul Nicholls runs in a big Saturday race cannot be dismissed lightly.
Hint Of Mint (6 yr 11-4): Yet to win in five starts this season but has been amongst some of the top hurdlers on these shores. Eleven starts over hurdles to date but this is just his second in a handicap. His first resulted in a narrow victory over Purple Bay on his final start last season at Taunton. Finds himself 14 pounds higher in the handicap now and that sets him a very tough task. Has the assistance of a good seven pound claimer, and drying ground will suit, but his looks beyond him. Would be an over-achievement if he were to place.
Desert Cry: (9 yr 11-3): Exposed nine year old who ran over hurdles at Haydock last time out for the first time in almost three years. Still six pounds higher than for his only win in a handicap hurdle race and that came back in November 2011. Probably doesn’t have the pace for a race of this nature nowadays and has too many questions to answer to be given even a place chance.
Arzal (5 yr 11-1): First season as a hurdler under rules and his four starts have yielded a progress profile. Performed well in three Maiden/Novice races before making his handicap debut from a mark of 139 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He finished sixth of the sixteen runners, beaten 15 lengths, but he ran better than that final position suggests. Unable to adopt his customary front running role, he was badly hampered by a faller at the fifth but did very well to get back in the race. He was only two lengths behind Calipto at the line and, on the same terms here, connections will be confident they can reverse that form. Whether by luck or design that run proved he is tactically versatile and, with a few hard front runners present in this field, his jockey may be wise to adopt patient tactics again. The seven pound claimer who rode him at Newbury takes his weight down below the statistically preferable 11 stone and the small stable he represents have enjoyed a good season so far. Six of their ten NH horses to run have recorded a victory (one of them twice).
Wicklow Brave (6 yr 11-0): Sixth in the Supreme Novices at the Cheltenham Festival last season but that now seems a distant memory after four subsequent heavy defeats and a fall. There was slightly more encouragement last time out when finishing in midfield in the Betfair Hurdle after being hampered but he will still have to fare a lot better to win this. His current mark of 138 wouldn’t be a barrier if he were to return to his best, and drying conditions are probably in his favour, but even Willie Mullins doesn’t seem to be able to get him to run with much conviction at the moment. His current price looks big for a horse of his proven class but you would need the heart to rule the head and take a lot on trust to get involved.
Heath Hunter (8 yr 11-0): A winner of three of his eight starts over hurdles, he was back on track last time out after two down the field finishes on his first two starts of the season. That victory in heavy ground over two at Ffos Las was due to mainly to his staying ability and there is a worry that, even at a generous pace, this race will not provide a sufficient test of stamina. He is normally seen over further and drying conditions won’t help his cause. His handicap mark has shot up eleven pounds since Ffos Las and that looks beyond him. He represents the David pipe yard so it would be folly to completely write him off but they also run Bidourey and his chances are much more obvious.
Thistlecrack (7 yr 10-11): Didn’t make his hurdling debut until January of this year and has won two of his three Novice starts. He easily beat inferior rivals at Wincanton on his first start but was then well beaten by some very decent Novices at Cheltenham over an extended 20 furlongs. The drop back in trip and class saw him get his head back in front at Ascot last time out where he was very strong in the finish under a good Ruby Walsh ride. The second had won his previous race and the third his previous two but neither hold a Cheltenham entry and the form is not easy to evaluate in the context of a race like this. A mark of 135 looks reasonable on the balance of his two victories and, although his hurdle races have been on soft/heavy ground, he did win a Bumper on good ground so drying conditions will not inconvenience him. Represents a yard who were second in this race in 2012.
Fascino Rustico (7 yr 10-11): A winner of two of his eight starts over hurdles, Fascino Rustico is a progressive but accident prone hurdler. He has fallen in three of his last six starts including when looking likely to place in the Betfair Hurdle last time out. Had easily won his two starts this season prior to that fall and it’s not hard to imagine that he could be involved from his current mark if he avoids any errors. Both hurdle victories have come in soft ground but he won a Bumper in good ground. It’s difficult to say whether he would’ve finished in front of Arzal or Calipto had he not fallen in the Betfair but a tenuous line through Zip Top suggests he has something to find with Arzal.
Some Buckle (6 yr 10-11): Made his debut with a facile win at Southwell in December and followed that up with a close second to Glingerburn at Doncaster. That form has been handsomely franked by the progressive winner who has won twice again since. Some Buckle was well in front of Thistlecrack when finshing fifth of the nine runners in a hot Novice race at Cheltenham last time out. That came over the extended 20 furlongs and he only faded up the hill. He has Chaser written all over him and is very stoutly bred but a fast run two miles could suit him well at this stage. Probably needs to improve a few pounds to win this but that looks more of a likelihood than a probability in the first time tongue tie.
Chieftain’s Choice (6 yr 10-11): A close second on his hurdling debut in November was followed by two easy victories from the front at Hexham and Catterick. He was leading the Betfair hurdle field at Newbury last time out when coming down at the fifth so he hasn’t had the ideal preparation. He was very keen out in front with Violet’s Dancer and, if similar tactics are adopted here, he may find himself with a tough task in the presence of other front runners. Versatile regarding ground conditions, progressive and on a fair looking mark but just a nagging doubt that he will not be left alone up front with the consequence that this may be set up for the closers.
Gassin Golf (6 yr 10-8): Still a maiden after 13 starts over hurdles but he does have a progressive profile and has been placed in nine of those races. Chucked in a howler in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot when last seen in December but he finished distressed and his absence since suggests something may have been amiss. That has meant he hasn’t been seen for longer than statistically ideal and he will need to return at his peak if he is to get involved at the business end of this race. He would ideally like conditions to continue to dry. His mark is slowly creeping up without him winning and this a very tough race in which to shed your maiden status. Came within a length of winning this race last year but now finds himself eleven pounds higher in the handicap.
Bidourey (4 yr 10-8): Won all five starts, four of them in this country and three over hurdles. He has improved significantly from race to race and it’s very doubtful that we have seen the best of him yet. The Assessor has taken no chances in allocating him a mark of 140 and he has yet to race on better ground than soft but he could be anything. A prominent racer, he represents the Pipe yard who have won this race twice from just three four year olds they have entered, the other was placed. Bidourey gets the eight pound weight for age allowance and has to go on any short-list on connections alone. Whether he deserves his place as market leader when he has a few questions to answer, only time will tell, but he satisfies many of the strong trends for this race and won his only start on this track.
West Wizard (6 yr 10-8): Winner of a Bumper but beaten into second in all three starts over hurdles, every time at short prices. A year between his second and third starts suggests he hasn’t been easy to train and he hasn’t produced the improvement from race to race that you would expect from a horse out of the Henderson yard. It’s still very early days and a mark of 132 looks fair on the balance of his form but he was seven lengths behind Arzal on his penultimate start in November and it’s unlikely he would have beaten him with the seven pounds he gets today. Gives the impression he is a bit one paced and would be a bigger price if he came from another stable. Could have a say in the outcome now he moves into handicaps, and is still highly regarded, but is hard to warm to as much as some others at similar or bigger prices.
Meadowcroft Boy (6 yr 10-8): A winner of two Bumpers and a Novice hurdle on his first three starts but hasn’t got his head in front in four races over hurdles since. He can be a bit too keen for his own good and he certainly won’t want to display that trait in this race. He produced his best performance so far when beaten a respectable distance by the progressive Glingerbank and Hawk High last time out but that was a five runner affair and he had the run of the race. To his credit he has improved from race to race in his three starts of this campaign, and he seems tactically versatile, but he probably would ideally like further. Represents a small yard who travel a long way with just the one runner on the card and the booking of Jamie Moore catches the eye.
First Avenue (10 yo 10-8): The winner of this race two years ago from a mark of 130 but well beaten in last season’s renewal from a mark of 137. Now finds himself on 132 after winning two Summer races at Worcester. Likely to give it his best shot but hard to make a case for now he has reached veteran status.
Ascendant (9 yr 10-7): A three time winner this season but more exposed than many he takes on in this race and now looks weighted to the hilt. Off the track for two and a half years prior to reappearing in September he has found improvement after being bought out of a Seller by current connections in November. He has risen 16 pounds in the handicap under his new Trainer but nearly all his winning has been done on sharp and/or flat tracks. Has plenty to find with Some Buckle on a line through Mad Jack Mytton in receipt of just four pounds. Fails plenty of the strong trends for this and it would be a surprise were he to be on the premises in the latter stages of the race. Well beaten in this race back in 2012 and is now three pounds higher in the handicap.
Ebony Express (6 yr 10-7): Bought out of Alan Swinbank’s yard at the Tattersall Sales in October and won his first two starts over hurdles in Novice events at Carlisle. He was well beaten under the welter burden of 12-4 on his third start but was beginning to struggle when brought down two from home in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time out. Rated 82 on the flat, he has the inherent class to be effective from a mark of 131 but some of these would’ve beaten him at Newbury and they will probably do so again. Tendency to jump out to his left won’t do him any favours if he repeats the habit in this race. Trainer commands plenty of respect but his charge will need to perform better than he has on his last two starts to win this, although the return to a stiffer track will help.
Rayvin Black (6 yr 10-7): Only finished out of the frame in three of his ten starts over hurdles, winning three times, but two of them came in Listed/Graded Handicaps. He made all to win on his only previous visit to this track, a decent looking handicap on his penultimate start over this trip. He rather stole the race on a day when it was difficult to come from off the pace but he galloped all the way to the line and showed that soft ground and a stiff track doesn’t faze him. Likes to front run and can be a bit keen at times. He set a good pace when beaten nine lengths over the extended 19 furlongs at Ascot last time out but he probably didn’t see out the longer trip. The presence of other front runners makes his task tricky here and he is now 12 pounds higher in the weights than he was when winning here. That rise has got him into the race and his rider’s five pound claim takes him down to a light weight of 10-2, but it’s unlikely he will be allowed to slip a field of this size and stay there so he looks opposable.
Royal Guardsman (8 yr 10-6): A winner at Newbury just last Saturday and connections rightly though it was worth him taking his chance here. A day later and he would’ve incurred a four pound penalty for this so his Trainer may have played a cute card in qualifying for this. An aborted stint Chasing has seen him returned to hurdles and, after needing his reappearance on his penultimate start in January, he ran out a convincing winner. His six starts over hurdles have spanned just over two years but they produce a progressive profile and he is still lightly raced for one of his age. Drying conditions will suit him and, although running here within a week of his last run is not ideal, there are plenty of horses at his price or shorter that make less appeal. Represents a small yard who have a very profitable 17% strike rate with their hurdlers in handicaps in the four seasons they have been training.
Midnight Game (8 yr 10-6): Bought by his Trainer from Gigginstown Stud last September and ran well to finish second to an ‘all the way’ winner on just his second start for current connections. He runs from the same mark here and this formerly useful Hurdler/Chaser could be well handicapped if he can be coaxed back to somewhere near the best of his old form. He wouldn’t be anywhere near your typical winner of this race, being much more exposed than many in opposition, but he comes here after just two starts in this campaign with enough good form in the recent past to make a mark of 130 look attractive. A good run wouldn’t be the biggest surprise but it could be dependent on just what level of ability remains and if that leaves him with enough in hand of the handicapper’s assessment.
Zaidiyn (5 yr 10-6): Stablemate of Midnight Game who produced his best performance of four starts over hurdles when finishing midfield in a Listed Handicap at Musselburgh last time out and caught the eye staying on. Pulled up in blinkers at Cattetick prior to that and they have since been dispensed with. Has the potential to improve significanly on just his fifth start over hurdles but needs to on the same mark from which he ran at Musselburgh. Rated 89 on the flat so he has the class and you couldn’t discount anything from this yard showing sudden improvement.
Zip Top (6 yr 10-5): Represents a stable who have the advantage of access to some very classy horses from the flat. Zip Top is rated 110 on the level and runs from just a 19 pound higher mark over hurdles. That leaves him potentially chucked in here but he hasn’t so far produced the kind of performances in four starts over hurdles that one may expect from an ex flat horse of his ability. He was a lucky winner at Southwell last time out after the five length leader came down two out and he was well beaten by both Fascino Rustico and Arzal in two previous Novice hurdles. Some of the Sheik Mohammed recruits have transferred their ability from the flat to hurdles but some have proved disappointing. It will be interesting to see which way Zip Top goes but, in the meantime, he doesn’t strike you as being worthy of fourth favouritism for this, even with Tony McCoy up. The type who could leave you with egg on your face but looks too short on what he has so far achieved and, for that reason alone, opposable.
Raven’s Tower (5 yr 10-5): Only one pound above his last winning mark but hasn’t produced anything in four starts this season which would suggest he is capable of getting competitive in this race. Hopes dependent on the first time blinkers bringing about a significant revival but that is probably more in hope than expectation. Easily opposed, even though his Trainer is having a good season.
Summary:
Bidourey and
Arzal are two that fit most of the trends and they have the form to back up their chances. There are plenty of other lightly raced unexposed types who have the potential to improve significantly including
Camping Ground, Calipto, West Wizard, Fascino Rustico, Thistlecrack, Some Buckle, Chieftain’s Choice, Meadowcroft Bay, Ebony Express, Royal Guardsman, Zip Top and Zaidiyn. Of the more established handicappers,
Midnight Game is the one who could be on a good mark if he returns to his best.
Wicklow Brave hasn’t recaptured last season’s form but he is slowly working his way back there and a he would laugh at a mark of 138 if Willie Mullins produces his magic.
Selections: (Total outlay 5 pts)
Don't usually have more than a couple of selections in any one race and
Bidourey and
Arzal are the main two here, but can’t let
Some Buckle and
Royal Guardsman go unbacked at such big prices. They look overpriced and can be supported to small stakes.
Bidourey - 2 pts win @ 7/1 (Coral)
Arzal – 1.5 pts win @ 12/1 (Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betway)
Some Buckle – 1 pt win @ 16/1 (Skybet, Betvictor, Winner, Betway, Titanbet)
Royal Guardsman - 0.5 pts win @ 33/1 (Coral)
