Irish Champion Stakes Day

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Possibly unusual, but easily explainable. She's a hold-up filly, usually ridden for a turn of foot. Therefore in races that she wins, she's ridden to beat the opposition rather than run to high ratings. Her defeats have usually been against males in stronger races, where there is a greater likelihood of her full ability being showed.
 
Euronymous said:
Couple of pounds maybe. And that was an extended mile and a quarter with a long straight. Leapardstown won't suit him as much. With her sex allowance SF has the beating of the colts quite comfortably if she runs to form.
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Absolute tosh, Euro.
Leopardstown is much more 'against the collar' than York, which is why Nathaniel is running here, and SNA suffered (as many others have) from taking on Frankel from some way out.
Nathaniel just has to set a strong gallop, which will suit SNA down to the ground. It's probably too close to call between SNA and Snow Fairy, but looks a cast-iron dual forecast.
 
At the prices this morning 4/1 St Nicholas Abbey looks the bet given there won't be much between the front three.
 
I ended up taking 9/1 Alanza last night. I just don't trust fillies to take 5/2 in a Group 1 at the backend of a season even if it would have been her main aim.
 
The left field e/w choice, and a decent one at that has to be Daddy Long Legs for me. This field could hardly be described as a much of a muchness, but with St Nic and Nathaniel being 12F group one winners I don't think mine will need to be ridden at a suicidal pace solely for pacemaking purposes (hope not anyway).

There's a possibility he is just a pacemaker for St Nic, but I still think St Nic and Nathaniel will have to be ridden much more handily which should counteract any perceived pacemaking duties, hence I think I'll get a run for my money on Daddy Long Legs. He's put bad runs behind him in the past and bounced back including when winning at Meydan this year, he's hardly been overraced and 10F at Leopardstown might be ideal.

The most interesting thing would be if there was money for it in the betting market and the early signs are there might be as several firms have shortened him and he's showing as a positive on betfair.
 
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He's 100% a pacemaker. I couldn't think of a better horse in the stable for the job. He did a serious job for Power on the Irish 2000 Guineas.
 
The opening maiden looks to giving too much respect up the front two. Granted Big Break did anything but break at Galway when 3rd behind the equally well fancied Magical Dream but is he a 7/4 shot in a 15 runner maiden even from the plum draw? I doubt it.

Sheilna is drawn wide in 12 but her form behind Snow Queen looks a good run FTO and it's significant that Oxx prefers McDonogh when he is available on horses from his stable.

With runners FTO for Deegan, Wachman, O'Brien, Oxx and Kevin Prendergast this is far from straight forward for the front two in the betting. Of them Monaco Mist should never be 20/1 on breeding. It's not a easy race first time out but she's a very promising filly at the price you can't go wrong.
 
davidjohnson said:
Possibly unusual, but easily explainable. She's a hold-up filly, usually ridden for a turn of foot. Therefore in races that she wins, she's ridden to beat the opposition rather than run to high ratings. Her defeats have usually been against males in stronger races, where there is a greater likelihood of her full ability being showed.
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Yes this is the explanation. While I agree that she has been ridden to beat the opposition rather than clock up a high rating my point is it is also the case that we have seen her run to her extent in her three best performances without winning. Consequently she is likely to have to run better than she has in the past to win today. Love her as I do I can't quite see her doing that.
 
SlimChance said:
At the prices this morning 4/1 St Nicholas Abbey looks the bet given there won't be much between the front three.
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The price is a fair one. Although I agree with Euro that SNA typically finds at least one too good at this trip, if there is a strong pace it will undoubtedly help SNA. However, I get the impression that Nathaniel is even better than we have seen this season. Perhaps wasn’t quite there on his reappearance and then ran too quickly in the KG. There is a big performance to come from him this backend and today is a good as any to shine.
 
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Euronymous said:
The only reason Nathaniel didn't run at York was Frankel.
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More tosh!
Prize money apart, Nathaniel had absolutely nothing to lose by being 2nd to Frankel.
John Gosden said (after the KG) that the horse was to be rested, and was never seriously intended as a runner in the International. He was left in in case the ground became a bog at York and in such circumstances would probably have run, Frankel or not.
 
If that's the case and he's not fully wound up today I think connections have made a mistake. He's not an Arc horse.
 
Euronymous said:
When it comes down to horses who are closely matched on ratings/form you have to go with the one who will be most suited to the conditions on the day.
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she just loves the short straights...long ones don't play to her at all with her pouncing game....her form here last year against SYT was a good pointer alone to today
 
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