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Irish Derby 2025
- Thread starter edgt
- Start date
Danny
Journeyman
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- Feb 27, 2013
- Messages
- 2,454
He's about the best there is IMO amongst the rest who started with him years ago.
Seems obsessed with figures rather than what actually occurred in the race.
Moe than a hint he looks in here,too.c
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Ian_Davies
Conditional
I'd take issue with this as my old school/college friend Chris Wright went to Timeform after we graduated, become Phil Bull's assistant and later succeeded Bull doing the time figures there.
But Chris never craved fame - I had to gently twist his arm to get him to participate in this feature on him: Man with time on his side - whereas I think Simon is somewhat less averse to the limelight.
Best known doesn't always mean best.
Time analysis is only one piece of the betting jigsaw, though, and that's where a lot of "Time Lords" fall down, as many are often almost religiously one-dimensional about it.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 27,909
Yes, my first approach is to compare how they ran compared to how my and/or official ratings 'expected' them to. If the TS looks low by comparison I tend to ignore the time altogether.
Then I take account of the level of race and look for reasons either to bump them up or down.
But sectional analysis and now race metrics can help get a better handle on it.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
It wasn't directed at you, Maurice.
I just think - and I speak as a time geek myself - that some such geeks just don't get it's a tiny bit of betting profitably and the road to ruin if used to the exclusion of all else.
Hypothetical examples -
Time geek: "This is best in on time figures."
Realist: "This is a Class 6 Handicap - your numbers aren't much use if it's, err, NOT F-ING TRYING."
Time geek: "This 2yo did a good time at Ripon - wins the Coventry."
Realist: "Ripon? What are you comparing the time with? The sheep in the adjoining field? Aidan O'Brien says he's got a strong Coventry contender so, as he's trained a million 2yo Group winners and knows what it takes, I'll go with his judgement, cheers."
That's just two such scenarios - there are loads.
I just think - and I speak as a time geek myself - that some such geeks just don't get it's a tiny bit of betting profitably and the road to ruin if used to the exclusion of all else.
Hypothetical examples -
Time geek: "This is best in on time figures."
Realist: "This is a Class 6 Handicap - your numbers aren't much use if it's, err, NOT F-ING TRYING."
Time geek: "This 2yo did a good time at Ripon - wins the Coventry."
Realist: "Ripon? What are you comparing the time with? The sheep in the adjoining field? Aidan O'Brien says he's got a strong Coventry contender so, as he's trained a million 2yo Group winners and knows what it takes, I'll go with his judgement, cheers."
That's just two such scenarios - there are loads.
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Danny
Journeyman
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When Slim asked about Rowlands he said does anyone rate him. I was talking in terms of speed rating and time analysis only as that's his area and as said there were a bunch of others at the time he started out who aren't in the limelight now, some not even punting these days but certainly on a par knowledge wise. I certainly wasn't suggesting he's the best all round punter and knower of all things.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Fair enough, Danny.
And tbf to Simon what he writes about isn't necessarily the sum total of what he knows, an assumption a lot of people make about others.
And tbf to Simon what he writes about isn't necessarily the sum total of what he knows, an assumption a lot of people make about others.
Danny
Journeyman
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- Feb 27, 2013
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- 2,454
I think a lot can be said for the correlation between horse racing knowledge and being a succesful punter isn't as strong as most people think. I've known some real knowledgeable guys who were just terrible punters and plenty of people with a limited knowledge of horse racing who made more out of the game. In fact one of the best judges I know frequents talking horses but by his own admission he's a terrible punter.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I agree with that.
In the 1980s, I used to work with and became friends with a greyhound journalist and punter.
He was lethal on Open races, but if the race we'd gone to bet on was later on the card he'd often done his dough on the graded races before we reached it.
His discipline was zero.
He got the hump and left me stranded at Wembley one night (I didn't drive at the time) but I stayed and bet the dog he'd gone there to back at 4/1 and it beat the 4/5 fav by eight lengths!
This funded a late dinner at a rather nice restaurant across the road from the stadium before a black cab back to London Docklands where I lived at the time.
And one of the best punters I ever met was just a geek, really.
"Betting on horses is just MATH," he used to say as his data model churned out the profits.
In the 1980s, I used to work with and became friends with a greyhound journalist and punter.
He was lethal on Open races, but if the race we'd gone to bet on was later on the card he'd often done his dough on the graded races before we reached it.
His discipline was zero.
He got the hump and left me stranded at Wembley one night (I didn't drive at the time) but I stayed and bet the dog he'd gone there to back at 4/1 and it beat the 4/5 fav by eight lengths!
This funded a late dinner at a rather nice restaurant across the road from the stadium before a black cab back to London Docklands where I lived at the time.
And one of the best punters I ever met was just a geek, really.
"Betting on horses is just MATH," he used to say as his data model churned out the profits.
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Ian_Davies
Conditional
Yeah, you're right - let's keep it platonic, now where's that ignore button?
Backing a Johnson horse each way for a race that is 2 months away is not good strategy I could see a case for win only but the horse is definitely on the slow side.
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