Irish Election Betting

I agree with Mel's third and second paragraphs.

I agree with most of Mel's first paragraph, except for the bit "given the information I assume he had at the time." What makes a decent leader in my book is quickly and swiftly realising that who you can and cannot trust around you. Lenihan must have realised fairly swiftly into the crisis that the lads feeding him from within his department and cabinet were morons or vested interests (or both). He continued to hide behind the information he was given, and never reached out to alternative sources, other than a couple of token consultants from (Merrills 2008) and the shower from London in 2010. I know this because I worked in the Regulator for two years during the crisis. Lenihan is obviously capable, most of his lies were excusable (apart from the IMF, when it didn't matter a shite what politicians said because everybody knew what was going on) but I think that he was out of his depth in finance and didn't recognise it soon enough (or ever) and therefore had a proclination to listen to the good news.

And regarding the lying, I think that sometimes Lenihan copped on that lying was the best course of action. But he got so used to doing it, and spread it through the cabinet (not that difficult) that it became farcical around the time of the November Budget and the IMF, when it was lie -> backtrack -> lie -> backtrack. I think this period more than any other has damaged Irish people's faith in politics.

I think you are right about Mary Hanafin being safe. I don't think having Boyd-Barrett in the Dáil would do the country much harm. He's a nutjob, though. Bacik seems to be hated by one and all. Is it because she is a carpet-bagger? A member of the elite?
 
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I don't think having Boyd-Barrett in the Dáil would do the country much harm.
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Unless, God forbid, his vote was required to squeeze a budget through. It's unlikely, I'll grant you, that he'll ever vote with the government, and maybe putting him in the Dail would keep him out of harms way, but if he got a wide-eyed temptation to do a Tony Gregory, he'd try, and fail, to use his position for the betterment of mankind and social morality, rather than small much-needed landmark achievements for the people he represents, in which Mr Gregory succeeded.
 
When I read posts about individual candidates and their motives for getting elected it makes me wonder what would lie ahead for a FG majority or minority. Off the 80 seats they might win there must be a few basket cases who will resign the whip if they dont get the landmark result for their constituency. They could be the hardest back benchers to keep onside in the history of the state.
 
... especially since Fine Gael TDs have had no say in govt since 1997. They have a lot of catching up to do in the helping-out-their-mates stakes. There will be very little funding to spend on local excesses, with an extremely vigilent media watching them spend it.
 
Melendez said:
I've no particular dislike of Bakic. I once saw her and thought she wasn't bad looking. I still believe there is some combination of make up artist and camera angle that can recreate this opinion.
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One of the finest pieces of political insight in this campaign!!!:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
 
Watched Vincent Brown last night. There was this absolute lunatic on called Bill Tormey (FG) I was glued to the box. I've never seen a performance like it. We're screwed.
 
I saw the first few minutes of it. From being in ecstatic high spirits one minute, I thought (well, I hoped) he would punch Declan Ganley as soon as he was allowed a turn speaking, for no particular reason. Ganley was just spouting bog standard stuff. I suspect he won't get to see the cabinet table.

When I was voting, a 100 year oldish woman had gone in to vote and come out of the station with her ballot paper, but minus the pension book she was using as ID, which she'll have to collect in the RDS this morning. You do wonder if maybe people were required to answer a couple of simple questions about the candidates to prove they were taking their democratic right seriously, whether the likes of Tormey would do so well.
 
Re: Ganley Its the first time I had heard anyone elaborate a little on what would happen if we defaulted on Bank Debt.Most just throw it out there and move on. High risk 'yes' but It didn't sound that ridiculous to me but I'm not a money man. At the moment we are allowing 'The Europeans' to dictate the rules of the game.

Why is Ganley such a pariah.He's a wealthy successful man he doesn't need the hassle but still puts himself out there and is the only one offering a reasonably coherrent option to the major parties .
 
Bar the Bull said:
FG 74
Lab 34
FF 25
SF 14
Oth 19
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Not too bad, Bar. The imposter posting predictions in your name earlier in the thread clearly an eejit.

Absolute disaster for Fianna Fail by all accounts, particularly in Dublin it seems. I know comparatively little about Irish politics but I can't help wondering how many capable Fianna Failers have been swept up in this wave. I would have happily given my number one to Fianna Fail purely on the basis that my local TD (Thomas Byrne in Meath East) has proven himself to be more than capable in the last few years and very much deserved it in my eyes.

Seeing the likes of him dumped out on his arse while someone Peter Matthews is hoisted up on shoulders is a bit galling really.
 
Went into Powers on Friday afternoon to have a lumpy bet on FF getting 25 seats or more at even money-the price was cut to 4/6 so I gave it a miss(allowing me to lose the cash at Newcastle).
 
Nope, my own constituency, Wicklow, hasn't even completed the third count. There was a row about something but it wouldn't be wicklow if there wasn't.

It could be this time tomorrow before it's all wound up.
 
I think there are 2 votes between himself and his FF running mate to see who is next to be eliminated, but even given Fitzgerald's transfers, any commentator worthy of an opinion seems to think his chances of being elected are purely theoretical. Even his running mate thinks there is no hope of either of them getting through and he would be fed the same information as Roche through the FF Tallymen.
 
I have waited all my politically aware life for a Fianna Fail destruction, and I am left strangely unsatisfied by the weekend. Even the unexpected bonus of Scary Mary Coughlan losing her seat hasn't satisfied my blood lust. I think I am just worried about them coming back to 50+ in the next election as the country is so fooked, and any government is bound to be unpopular.

On reflection, the only thing that would have satisfied me would have been Fianna Fail getting 0 seats and the party being disbanded, and possibly seeing Mary Hanafin getting only 1 first preference vote. And maybe all of them losing their deposits and maybe seeing the venerable D Roche burst into tears. And a few punchups involving FF TD's angry with 2 candidates being fielded in their constituency.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I have waited all my politically aware life for a Fianna Fail destruction, and I am left strangely unsatisfied by the weekend. Even the unexpected bonus of Scary Mary Coughlan losing her seat hasn't satisfied my blood lust. I think I am just worried about them coming back to 50+ in the next election as the country is so fooked, and any government is bound to be unpopular.

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A strong possibility seeing as this Government will be making unpopular decisions. Martin didn't exactly look distraught. He has landed in a position where what ever he does will be an improvement on the current situation and he gets to mould the new party in whatever fashion he pleases. A politicians dream I'd imagine.

A big cheer went up when Dick was eliminated the other day. Being a Dick however, he couldn't bow out graciously. The idea of his running mate and former FF'er Behan finishing ahead of him was too much to bare. The entire vote is going to be recounted and the place is crawling with legalese.
 
Mary Coughlan losing her seat was the highlight for me-I know someone who worked for her and surprisingly she isn't the sharpest tool in the shed.
 
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