Irish Election Betting

Eamon Ryan probably deserted the last of his undecided voters last night on TV3. Three times he was asked the same question about the bank guarantees and three times he dodges the question. I'll be disappointed if the greens get more than one seat now.
 
FG need 84 for an overall majority, is that correct ?
Are there 10 independents (based on your guesstimate) they can do business with, I think not personally.
 
I think that they will be able to work with:

Shane Ross
Wallace (Wex)
Breen (Clare)
O'Sullivan (Dub C)
McGrath (Dub NC)
Connolly (Galway West)
Murphy (Kildare)

with Grealish as a maybe. Can't see them going with Lowry, Healy Rae and the ULA. Or Ming, but they might.
Don't know anything about Kilcoyne

So they probably have 7. Indeed I reckon McGrath might not be a good fit, so 6. They only need 83 for a majority, as the Ceann Comhairle will vote with the government. But given the reliance on indepenents, they would go for 85 as a minimum.

So they would need 77 seats, which looks within their grasp. Ivan Yates predicts 79.
 
I'd guess they wouldn't go with independents unless they got at least 80 seats. Personally I think they should set the bar higher, but probably won't. There are still messy decisions to be made. All it takes is some nobody to start crying when a hospital is closed in their constituency, another found messing with brown envelopes and someone else pops their clogs and they end up in shite.
 
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If they get 81 seats or more, there is no way on earth that they would get into bed with Labour.

Personally I would rather they got 80 at least and go it alone. The conseneus is that they will want a large majority to weather all the storms that are coming and to ensure a 5 year term. If I were voting tomorrow it would be FG 1-2-3 the rest blank.
 
Personally I would rather they got 80 at least and go it alone. The conseneus is that they will want a large majority to weather all the storms that are coming and to ensure a 5 year term. If I were voting tomorrow it would be FG 1-2-3 the rest blank.

Are you not voting???
 
Well funny you should ask. You do know if you vote it insinuates you are living in the address you last registered to vote... Need I say any more?
 
I think that they will be able to work with:

Shane Ross
Wallace (Wex)
Breen (Clare)
O'Sullivan (Dub C)
McGrath (Dub NC)
Connolly (Galway West)
Murphy (Kildare)

with Grealish as a maybe. Can't see them going with Lowry, Healy Rae and the ULA. Or Ming, but they might.
Don't know anything about Kilcoyne

So they probably have 7. Indeed I reckon McGrath might not be a good fit, so 6. They only need 83 for a majority, as the Ceann Comhairle will vote with the government. But given the reliance on indepenents, they would go for 85 as a minimum.

So they would need 77 seats, which looks within their grasp. Ivan Yates predicts 79.

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYUiMKKKvho&h=d861b

Mick Wallace says here that he would not support a Fine Gael government. I would also be surprised if Maureen O'Sullivan, Tony Gregory's ideologicla heir in Dublin Central was prepared to support them.
 
It's either a Fine Gael majority of a FG/LAB coalition. Everything else is a non-runner for me.
 
I didn't know that about Mick Wallace. Maybe you are right about Maureen O'Sullivan (my local TD), but I think she would do it.

I think a Fine Gael miniority government is a big chance, but on balance, they would need 81 and 4 solid independent supporters to make it work.
 
I actually have a fair bit of respect for Lenihan. Granted he did ruin the country and he continually lied to the nation, but I think, given what we think we know about the events as they unfolded, he probably made most of the right moves given the information I assume he had at the time. I'm not even sure there were any definitive right moves if he was blessed with full information. As for the lying, most of the time telling the truth would have hastened disaster, a policy of non-comittal-not-in-a-position-to-discuss-this waffling would sit slightly better with me.

In my own area, Gilmore and Barrett are through, leaving a scrap between Hanafin, Bakic, Mary Mitchell-O'Connor and Richard Boyd-Barrett. I've never heard of MMOC and know nothing about her, so she's in prime position to get my vote. I have an, admittedly, unhealthy, hatred of Hanafin so much so that I think I might push her roughly if I actually met her. Boyd Barrett is undoubtedly an accomplished and dedicated local politician which, given he is so wrong about everything important in life, makes him dangerous with any little power. I've no particular dislike of Bakic. I once saw her and thought she wasn't bad looking. I still believe there is some combination of make up artist and camera angle that can recreate this opinion. Her voice can be a little grating, but the content is rarely overly objectionable - ok in small doses. I'll go for MMOC unless there is a possibily that a vote for Bakic helps keep out both Hanafin and Boyd Barrett. I suspect Hanafin is probably safe enough though.

I can't find betting on the National vote topper - surely Enda, in a big Mayo constituency, will pick up a Gaddafi-ish share of the vote.
 
Mel, that's a cracker of a post there.

Bar, Donnelly I would have thought would go close but the County is so divided he could top the poll in the north and flop in the south.
 
I'll go for MMOC unless there is a possibily that a vote for Bakic helps keep out both Hanafin and Boyd Barrett.

The only way to keep out both Ms H and Mr B B is if FG and Lab get two seats each. I would have thought that if FG are going to do as well as the polls suggest they are fairly sure to get their two seats, in which case you would be better off voting No 1 for Ms Bacik (Batchick rather than Backitch) and No 2 for MMOC. That way, if Ms B gets knocked out your vote will transfer to FG if it is needed.
 
Fine Gael majority at 4/1 would be my poke at this stage. the greens are being touted for two seats with Trevor Sargant and Eamon Ryan holding, the Betfair market contradicts this with there back price being 2.82 and 2.2 respectively. That would be an incredible result for them and would bring a FG/GR coalition into play. There is so much analysis and column inches of opinion on it that I'm glad we are nearly there.
 
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