Bar the Bull
At the Start
PartySeats
FG 62
Lab 35
FF 33
SF 14
Others 16
FG 62
Lab 35
FF 33
SF 14
Others 16
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If they get 81 seats or more, there is no way on earth that they would get into bed with Labour.
Personally I would rather they got 80 at least and go it alone. The conseneus is that they will want a large majority to weather all the storms that are coming and to ensure a 5 year term. If I were voting tomorrow it would be FG 1-2-3 the rest blank.
I think that they will be able to work with:
Shane Ross
Wallace (Wex)
Breen (Clare)
O'Sullivan (Dub C)
McGrath (Dub NC)
Connolly (Galway West)
Murphy (Kildare)
with Grealish as a maybe. Can't see them going with Lowry, Healy Rae and the ULA. Or Ming, but they might.
Don't know anything about Kilcoyne
So they probably have 7. Indeed I reckon McGrath might not be a good fit, so 6. They only need 83 for a majority, as the Ceann Comhairle will vote with the government. But given the reliance on indepenents, they would go for 85 as a minimum.
So they would need 77 seats, which looks within their grasp. Ivan Yates predicts 79.
I'll go for MMOC unless there is a possibily that a vote for Bakic helps keep out both Hanafin and Boyd Barrett.