Irish General Election

Grey

Grey

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It was about an 8/1 chance last time around. The reason it's so short is purely on the numbers. Labour won't get 10 seats. This leaves Fine Gael the choice of Sinn Fein or Finna Fail. FG and FF are essentially the same part anyway so it's a definite fit on policies.

To think that in 2011 Fine Gael were voted in with the thinking that things would be different.
 
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SlimChance said:
It was about an 8/1 chance last time around. The reason it's so short is purely on the numbers. Labour won't get 10 seats. This leaves Fine Gael the choice of Sinn Fein or Finna Fail. FG and FF are aessebtially the same part anyway so it's a definite fit on policies.

To think that in 2011 Fine Gael were voted in with the thinking that things would be different.
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I know that supporters of other parties would like to see FF and FG merge (and I am one of those people), but I can't see them agreeing to it yet. Even with the collapse of the FF vote the old civil war divide is still there. The main beneficiaries have been SF and the independents with only a small number of voters moving over to the other tribe.

If there is even a hint of a chance of an FG/FF coalition FF will surely lose votes from hard core supporters who couldn't stomach partnership with the blueshirts. Even worse from their point of view, they'd lose those votes to SF, who would probably overtake them. Going into such a government would mean the beginning of the end for them.

I therefore think there's a bit of value in this market. My own guess is that Labour will do better than you think and that FG/Lab could be re-elected.
 
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I couldn't disagree with any of that bar the Labour vote. I have them getting 9 seats max and I'm calling Joan Bruton as a casualty. As you've alluded too the main perogative for Fianna Fáil is getting more seats that Sinn Fein and not getting into the new government. @KeithM on Twitter (worth a follow) has suggested the possibility of a minority FG government propped up by the Independent Alliance. It's possible 9/2 is a bet.
 
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SlimChance said:
I couldn't disagree with any of that bar the Labour vote. I have them getting 9 seats max and I'm calling Joan Bruton as a casualty. As you've alluded too the main perogative for Fianna Fáil is getting more seats that Sinn Fein and not getting into the new government. @KeithM on Twitter (worth a follow) has suggested the possibility of a minority FG government propped up by the Independent Alliance. It's possible 9/2 is a bet.
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The maths based on current polls and the unlikelihood of a deal with FF might suggest a deal where FG is supported by the Independent Alliance, but what is the nature of that particular beast? It says its "a group, not a party", whatever that means. In particular what would it mean when it comes to votes on contentious issues? I think FG would prefer a more reliable source of support.

By the way how old is the poll data that has you calling Joan Burton a casualty? I see she's 9/2 in the Next Tanaiste market, which sounds like a decent price to me.

A lot of people have been going through a shitty time but anyone who remembers where we were five years ago going into the last election has to acknowledge the improvement made in the economy and the restoration of international credibility since then. I imagine that as people start to ponder the various possible outcomes to the election many of them will decide to stick with the outgoing government. If that happens then Burton should make it back to the Dail. The advantage of the Next Tanaiste market compared with the Next Government market is that dependence on a few independents won't scupper the bet.
 
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Joan Bruton is 8/15 to get re-elected so let's say the price ball true park is around 4/6. Would you want to take 9/4 that she's made Tanaiste? Labour are likely to halve their number of seats in the election, which is a disaster given at one point in 2010 they led the polls for a brief period. Could she face a leadership battle after the eclection? I'd be a keen layer of the 9/2.
 
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Labour expectations are low, they know they are going to lose seats, so unless there's a complete massacre there won't be a change of leader. Burton herself replaced Gilmore because of sagging polls and little enough good it did them. They can't keep appointing new leaders indefinitely. if they have enough seats after the election to provide the Tanaiste it will surely be her.

Besides, your 4/6 and 9/4 are related contingencies are they not?
 
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Alan Kelly will move against her if he keeps his seat and they lose half their TDs.

My feeling at this point is that it will be FG minority Govt, propped up without cabinet reps by FF, in some kind of super Tallaght strategy. This lasts for 6 months until McGrath has dispatched Me Hole Martin and then they withdraw. Anybody got a price on General Election part 2 on October 14th with the main parties being led by Varadkar, McGrath, Mary Lou and Alan Kelly?
 
In my own constituency-Waterford -John Halligan is 1/40 to be elected-in my opinion he will struggle-he has gained a reputation for being aloof which isn't good for a left wing candidate.He fell over the line at the last election and people were a lot angrier then-I don't know if being wingman for Shane Ross will get him many votes.
 
an capall said:
Alan Kelly will move against her if he keeps his seat and they lose half their TDs.

My feeling at this point is that it will be FG minority Govt, propped up without cabinet reps by FF, in some kind of super Tallaght strategy. This lasts for 6 months until McGrath has dispatched Me Hole Martin and then they withdraw. Anybody got a price on General Election part 2 on October 14th with the main parties being led by Varadkar, McGrath, Mary Lou and Alan Kelly?
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Another election in 2016 is 3/1.

I would love a price in Michael McGrath topping the poll in Cork South Central.
 
Grey said:
Labour expectations are low, they know they are going to lose seats, so unless there's a complete massacre there won't be a change of leader. Burton herself replaced Gilmore because of sagging polls and little enough good it did them. They can't keep appointing new leaders indefinitely. if they have enough seats after the election to provide the Tanaiste it will surely be her.

Besides, your 4/6 and 9/4 are related contingencies are they not?
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I'm not sure where you're going with related contingencies. 4/6 and 9/4 is how your 9/2 bet breaks down. 9/4 is very short. I'd be very keen to lay that 9/2.
 
SlimChance said:
I'm not sure where you're going with related contingencies. 4/6 and 9/4 is how your 9/2 bet breaks down. 9/4 is very short. I'd be very keen to lay that 9/2.
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My thinking is that if Joan Burton retains her seat it will only be because it's part of a trend where a good number of other Labour seats are held, and if that happens Labour can be in the next government and she will keep the leadership.
 
If anybody wants to hear Mary Lou (unlikely, I know) lose the noggin with Brian Hayes, check out the Newstalk Podcast - review of the Sunday papers. I think she and Gerry are beginning to implode and now you have the AK47s in the Regency and the policy to close the special criminal courts thrown into the mix.

Their core vote will hold, but these issues are pure transfer losses from the middle class snakin regarders. What I think I am saying is that this could help Labour.
 
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This supposed claim of responsibility by the Continuity IRA looks very suspicious to me. I doubt they were involved and I doubt they claimed it either, it makes no sense.
 
Grey said:
This supposed claim of responsibility by the Continuity IRA looks very suspicious to me. I doubt they were involved and I doubt they claimed it either, it makes no sense.
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I was going to post something similar -who benefits.
 
Leaders debate on TV3 at 9pm. Will Martin do the the smart thing and go after Sinn Fein?
 
Adams took a lot of flak right enough. I agree with the guy who says while it won't put off core SF supporters more hesitant voters are likely to look to other left wing candidates instead.
 
That's the thing with Sinn Fein on these debates, it's a complete freeroll. Adams won't lose their core vote and gets a free shot at the government and their main rival FF. I do think that they would be better served having Mary Lou do some of the other debates.

Under 10.5 Labour seats at 5/6 with Ladbtokes looks like picking up money.
 
You're probably right about Mary Lou. Personally I'm allergic to her but the barbs about the IRA past don't stick in her the way they do in Adams.
 
LUKE said:
In my own constituency-Waterford -John Halligan is 1/40 to be elected-in my opinion he will struggle-he has gained a reputation for being aloof which isn't good for a left wing candidate.He fell over the line at the last election and people were a lot angrier then-I don't know if being wingman for Shane Ross will get him many votes.
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I'm amazed by the amount of people who agree with me on this -yet he remains 1/40.
 
Don't assume the bookmakers odds are accurate on these elections. I think Tom Barry is in trouble in Mallow yet he's only been eased from 1/7 to 1/4. The reality is the cleverest people don't correct the prices.

* - While writing this post the barman has told me that he's on a 9/2 shot in Carlow-Kilkenny that's the wrong price. It's a funny old game.
 
Who is the 9/2 shot in Carrow/KK.
If I asked for odds on the 1/40 shot not to be elected what price would I get -I would consider 5/2 to be value.
 
Does anyone know who was responsible for getting the rules changed on election betting -singles only-no multiples allowed.
 
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