Irish Guineas Weekend

sunybay said:
it is very likely she has bounced after a top perforamance
the only horse I know to win after a high effort in his next run is Frankel in the St James Palace where he won despite posting a more than a stone below form nce
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Very good point, there's a lot of theory and statistics around this concept in a lot of American racing books and it's definitely an under rated idea.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
She's clearly good, indeed very good, but only in a very specific set of circumstances. She's probably extremely lucky that she ever had the chance to show how good she can be, but she still did it.
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Yes she did. But there was more than soft going affecting the result on Guineas day. The whole fiasco before the race has been underestimate and I expect a wall of horses to progress past HQ.

So good luck to her, but that's it for her Group 1 tally even if it rains until Christmas.
 
SteveM said:
Yes she did. But there was more than soft going affecting the result on Guineas day. The whole fiasco before the race has been underestimate and I expect a wall of horses to progress past HQ.

So good luck to her, but that's it for her Group 1 tally even if it rains until Christmas.
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How many horses that win a Group 1 would you expect to win another?
 
livex
There's little doubt HQ was flattered by the 9l margin, but you can't burn the whole result on that basis.
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Not doing so but neither can I ignore the rest of her form. I cant have the "bounce" excuse at all either. at short odds in prevailing conditions in next few months, shes not a bet
 
SteveM said:
Wasn't this obvious before the race though... perhaps not to some.;)

Plenty of good fillies in the Oaks a couple of which will rise to the top of the pecking order with BP. To be fair to HQ she was no good in that ground, but she's probably not much good full stop. She's won a Guineas due to a combination of factors. That will be the sum of her Group 1 haul.
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Pretty much the way I see it. Now about Black Caviar...... ;)
 
Up to last season AOB has had roughly 88 winners of 182 Group 1 races. 42 of those only won 1 Group 1. On that basis alone it is a 47.7% chance she will win again at the top level.

Everyone else over the sample I have has 1968 winners of 3002 Group 1's. 1379 of those only won 1 Group 1. So the percentage for anyone else is 30%. On that basis.
 
The numbers I have are:

O'Brien has had 93 individual Group 1 winners, winning 199 Group 1s between them.

Of those 93:

- 51 (54.8%) won more than one Group 1
- 37 (39.8%) did not win another Group 1
- 5 (5.4%) did not run in another Group 1 after winning their first Group 1 for him

(trivia question: name the 5!).
 
Racing Post front cover says that yesterdays Irish 1000 Guineas win was Channons "biggest success yet"
Really?
 
I suppose the RP consider the prestige of a Classic above all else, but off the top of my head Youmzain's GP de Saint-Cloud and Zafeen's St James Palace at Royal Ascot would beat it.
 
Footsteps is correct!

Ballingarry is not - won two Group 1s with him.

Together is correct!

Septimus is not - ran in the Melbourne Cup after he finally won his G1.

Man Of Iron never won a G1 (the BC Marathon was too new a race to be awarded the status).

Haradasun is correct! Although he's a weird case as Zenyatta points out.

There's two others, both 10 years+ ago.
 
I thought we were doing European G1s or I'd have banged Together and Man Of Iron in.

Haradasun was that horse
 
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