Irish Jockeys Championship

Grey

Grey

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jul 4, 2004
Messages
9,522
Location
Dublin
Paddy Power offer the following odds on who will be Irish champion jockey this year:

11/8 P Smullen
11/8 J Murtagh
5/1 D McDonogh
10/1 F M Berry
20/1 bar

The current standings can be viewed here: Current standings

Pat Smullen has the Weld stable, which has provided him with twenty of his twenty five winners so far. But that stable is scaling back, which presumably will become more evident in the summer months, and he has ridden only five winners for outside stables so far.

Johnny Murtagh looks set for a fine season, but a jockeys' championship is hardly the priority. He will frequently be riding abroad and the evidence so far this season is that even when he's not required on the big stage he won't be turning up at the likes of Ballinrobe and Clonmel.

Declan McDonogh is the current champion and his chance must of course be respected, but he is a long way off the pace at present. Even though the Kevin Prendergast stable is in reasonable form, he has ridden only four winners so far this season for outside stables.

Fran Berry, on the other hand, has ridden 20 winners so far for 17 different trainers. His main employer, John Oxx, has supplied only two winners so far from 11 rides but that will surely change. Last year he rode 23 winners for JMO from 90 rides. When Oxx runners turn up in maidens at country tracks Berry is more likely to be on board than stable jockey Mick Kinane, who seems to be restricting the number of meetings he rides at this season.

Berry is also riding very effectively: he has twenty winners so far but only nine second places. This is not a flash in the pan, the pattern goes back several years. He was also the only jockey in last year's top 30 to produce a level stake profit and is doing so again this season.

At 10/1 I think he is a value bet for this year's championship.
 
Weld is suposed to be scaling back isn't he ! I was so impressed with his horses this year, even the also rans look as if they will be nice.I just had a quick look at his entries yesterday and he has some really nicely bred horses entered in maidens it wouldn't strike you as a yard scaling back. If i was having a bet I'd stick with Smullen.
 
Originally posted by Sheikh@May 13 2008, 09:31 AM
Not a huge fan of Berrys, he has a touch of the Spencers about him .
Click to expand...
Agree and he can look pretty weak at times in the finish also.
 
Weak in a finish? The stats certainly don't support that suggestion.

Last season he had 80 wins and 51 seconds, and this year 20 wins and 9 seconds. I don't think any other jockey has a better ratio between firsts and seconds.
 
I had a bet on this championship last year on Smullen.....the thing I find most annoying about the bet was that the championship wasnt settled until December thus a long time for the money to be tied up. I think its between Smullen and Berry this year.
 
The latest situation is that Smullen and Berry are level on 30 each, Murtagh is one behind on 29, McDonogh is on 22 and Wayne Lordan is on 21.

When I started this thread three weeks ago Smullen and Berry were on 25 and 20 respectively. Murtagh's move towards the head of the leader board is thanks to a huge Guineas weekend with six winners.

Meanwhile there has been almost no change in the odds: 11/8 Smullen and Murtagh, 11/2 McDonogh and 10/1 Berry.
 
His odds have now been clipped to 8/1. That's still quite a price for a man at the top of the leader board.
 
During the period since starting this thread Fran Berry has had a great time, with 22 winners compared to nine for Pat Smullen. He is now leading the championship, with 42 winners compared to Smullen's 34.

Declan McDonogh (29) and Johnny Murtagh (29) have narrowed the gap on Smullen, but are some way behind Berry.

It was to be expected that Berry would do well at this time, given that there is little enough higher class racing in Ireland during the month between the Guineas and next weekend's Derby meeting. Last week, for example, he rode four winners in Ireland while his main rivals in the betting were at Ascot.

Current best prices have Smullen at 13/8, Murtagh 15/8, Berry 2/1 and McDonogh 8/1. Murtagh continues to make the value in the market, because winning it is not one of his objectives. Nevertheless, I think Berry's odds are more likely to lengthen rather than shorten further over the next few weeks.

One to keep an eye on, however, is Wayne Lordan in third place on 30 winners and currently available at 50/1. The Wachman stable is doing very well with their young horses and he could continue to figure. If he decides to give it a proper go, and picks up more outside rides in the races for older horses, his price will surely fall. I've had a small bet with this in mind.
 
My brother is all over Berry at 10s -despite several phone calls and texts per week I managed to avoid the temptation to back him.
 
The latest standings:

Berry 44 (5/2)
Smullen 38 (15/8)
McDonogh 37 (10/1)
Murtagh 35 (2/1)
Lordan 34 (20/1)

I've decided it's time to have a saver on McDonogh, still available with Paddy Power at 10/1.
 
Wachman is starting to run his horses so Lordan could be serious value at that. He is riding with confidence after a slow start.Murtagh would be home and hosed if Halford was having any kind of a year.
 
One to keep an eye on, however, is Wayne Lordan in third place on 30 winners and currently available at 50/1. The Wachman stable is doing very well with their young horses and he could continue to figure. If he decides to give it a proper go, and picks up more outside rides in the races for older horses, his price will surely fall. I've had a small bet with this in mind.
Click to expand...

Mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Sheikh
 
Who was that bright spark ? He rode a 144/1 winner in Leop the last day so I think it's fair to say he's focused.
 
I see, It was you, the old Grey-matter is working than, boom boom, get it.....I'll get my coat.

What did you make of Camira's run the other day ?
 
Personally I was a bit disappointed, Sheikh, but those who know better than me remain optimistic that we'll get a win with her.
 
Just watched it there, looked to me like an 'educational'. May have just needed the run the last day and that's why she looked like she didn't quite stay. I'd say she wants the mile.
 
The latest situation:

Murtagh - 51
Smullen - 51
Berry - 50
Lordan - 43
McDonogh - 39

On 3rd June Smullen and Berry were on 30 with Murtagh on 29, so on the surface little has changed. With Weld rampant at Galway, however, Smullen should open up a gap this week.

Berry had a lead of nine a few weeks ago which has been reeled in. There have been several occasions recently where races have been won by horses he had previously ridden, and presumably could have continued to ride, while he was stuck on some outsider. Does he have an agent or does he simply accept the first ride he's offered?
 
Back
Top