Irish Jockeys Championship

Due to my brothers bet on Berry I have several long coversations on the Irish jockeys title every week.
It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if it wasn't decided until December.Murtagh will have to miss a lot of days due to riding in England and overseas committments.Ballydoyle are sure to have plenty maiden winners but these wont always be first strings.Murtaghs ability around Dundalk could be the deciding factor.
Fran has been consistent all season -his willingness to go to places like Tramore to ride winners has been his major asset.Unlike the other main contenders he wont have to miss any days due to foreign committments and he has a good strike rate at Dundalk.
Smullen -doesn't ride winners at the Curragh,hasn't impressed at Dundalk and his stable has peaked.Avoid.
My betting would be 6-5 Murtagh,7/4 Berry,100/30 Smullen,50s bar.
 
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How many for Ballydoyle? - sorry haven't looked!

I've a feeling if Murtagh really wants it, they will try to give him the ammo - gratitude and all that. He's been tremendous for them this season... and if that's the case, he'll probably be unstoppable even if he does have to race abroad a bit!
 
Has anyone seen his gallops, his seem to travel very well in their races there at Dundalk.

19 winners from 84 runners, 23% runners to winners.
 
Headstrong said:
How many for Ballydoyle? - sorry haven't looked!

I've a feeling if Murtagh really wants it, they will try to give him the ammo - gratitude and all that. He's been tremendous for them this season... and if that's the case, he'll probably be unstoppable even if he does have to race abroad a bit!
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I think Murtagh would like to win it but he wouldn't be desperate to win it.The question is how many days will he miss due to overseas committments and what is the probability of him picking up a ban.
My current betting would be 6/5 each of two Murtagh and Franny 4s Smullen 100/1 bar.
 
Sheikh said:
Has anyone seen his gallops, his seem to travel very well in their races there at Dundalk.

19 winners from 84 runners, 23% runners to winners.
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No real discernible connection, Sheikh. Run of the mill woodchip gallops.

Ger reckons it has a lot to do with having a yard full of horses that want fast ground (Dundalk seems to allow horses suited by quick ground to travel).
 
Ger reckons it has a lot to do with having a yard full of horses that want fast ground (Dundalk seems to allow horses suited by quick ground to travel).
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Thanks, I noticed that horses that liked Dundalk don't switch to softish turf well. Does he have a full yard (I'm guessing he does) How pricey is he ?
 
Yard's not full at the minute (though he has quite a few in) and he's always looking for new owners, particularly with the sales season in full swing ATM.

I'll send you a PM with prices etc. when I have a chance this evening.
 
Intriguing variations in the current odds. Best prices according to Oddschecker:

Murtagh 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Berry 6/4 (Powers)
Smullen 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

That's less than a 100% book, thanks to Ladbrokes who have Berry as their odds on favourite. The rest go for Murtagh.

I've already hedged on Murtagh at 7/4 on Betdaq a couple of weeks ago and on Smullen at 2/1 before Galway, but I think the original bet on Berry has a sound chance of winning through at this stage. Murtagh will be abroad a lot for the rest of the season.
 
I did a calculation last week and in my opinion Murtagh is likely to miss at least another 9 meetings in Ireland due to committments abroad.Factor in the chances of injury and/or suspension and he is definitely odds aganst.
 
Berry edges ahead


Racing Post staff

FRAN BERRY and Pat Smullen edged ahead of the banned Johnny Murtagh at Dundalk on Friday evening to lead the Ballydoyle man by one in the race for the Irish jockeys' championship.

Berry took is tally to 74 with success on Dilinata in the two-year-old maiden while Smullen joined him on that mark by securing successes on Bobs Pride andHanicor in the final two races of the card.

Murtagh trails the two by one on 73.
 
Berry 5/4
Smullen 7/4
Murtagh 9/4

I suspect these odds reflect liabilities on Berry more than his actual chances of winning. The other two are in there with as good a chance.

Berry could do with an agent (does he have one?) to help pick and choose his rides. He seems to accept the first booking offered. He could also do with a helping hand from the Oxx stable: perhaps Mickey Joe would let him up on the stable's first choice runners in the final weeks? :D I'm sure if I explained to him that I've got this bet...;)
 
Mr Murtagh is riding in the first at Tipperary tomorrow before heading to Dundalk for a strong book of rides. We'll have to put some nails on the road.
 
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