The plot thickens as Michael Flynn is given a plea deal in return for full cooperation in the on going investigation headed by Robert Mueller.
This is where I think I am (still) with the "Russia thing" (sometimes called a nothing burger - as people are saying) - the stuff below is something I got hammered for saying a few days ago, and I've adapted the context slightly for TH
There's a few strands on this, none of which are complicated at a very basic level, though become complex very quickly once you dive into itThe first concerns Trump the businessman and Trump politician. I think the two things are mostly entities apart. I'm finding Trump's connections to 'organised' Russian business to be much more compelling than the political angle though. I think there's a mounting wall of evidence to suggest that Trump has been swimming in shark infested waters in terms of finance and investment, and I wouldn't be surprised if there is an expansion into this area. Trump himself did seem to react with aggressive alarm when it was suggested that his finances might be investigated
Before going onto the next bit though, I think it's worth reflecting that Trump is 71 years old and showing marked signs of deterioration. This might actually help insulate him however. In real estate he does at least have a familiarity with the core job and can trade off memory. At the very best he can build on knowledge he already has. This is much easier than learning a whole load of new things which is what the political world demands of him, and he's frankly giving the impression that's he's struggling to adapt. Basically he doesn't look capable.
Once out of his comfort zone Trump becomes a demander rather than a commander. He knows what he wants. He wants to win. But he hasn't actually got a clue how to do it. Look at his campaign. It wasn't high-tech. The bits he was directing relied on 1950's tactics. Yard boards, bumper stickers, red hats etc The 21st century input was coming from other peopleSo Trump is sitting there saying "make me win, make me popular, find me voters, I want to win" etc It isn't too far removed from the next demand someone would issue. "I don't care how you do it, just make me win". This is where I sense that things begin to derail. Trump has empowered more capable people than him to command the operation, and as they've grown ever more desperate against a deteriorating campaign, they've begun to stretch the ethics in pursuit of their goal
Trump isn't some evil global mastermind sitting in a leather chair, behind an oak desk, stroking a white cat, and tossing the fingers of Megan Kelly into a piranha tank. He hasn't got the know how to co-ordinate a sophisticated campaign with Russian collusion. It's much more likely that what the WaPo describes as lower ranking members of the campaign have done this instead, quite probably to please their demanding emperor, who looks more like Ethelred the Unready than Goldfinger
It's equally likely that because they would be working against a ticking clock and desperately trying to make up ground on Hillary Clinton, that they aren't going to waste their time briefing Trump about the precise tactics they're using other than enough for Trump to form the view that they're smart folks doing clever things with computer marketing
So who exactly? Well the big, big finger is beginning to point at Jared Kushner as the director behind a lot of this. Trump I'm beginning to believe is largely ignorant of the detail that's been going on, not because he observes a higher moral code, but because they missed him out of the explanation, because it would take too long to explain everything to him
This is where Trump then walks into a potential indictment of his own making though; that of obstruction when firing Jim Comey. If my hypothesis is correct of course, then Trump has done that much wrong himself. He hasn't sanctioned anything. The most he's likely done is give some of his lieutenants an open brief to push the envelope, and they've taken it and not told him. Under this scenario I can understand why Comey would annoy him. As far he's concerned Comey would be an obsessive distraction who is preventing his administration from working. Trump knows that Comey can't turn anything up on him, precisely because he hasn't directly authorised much (if anything), and for that reason he becomes an expendable irritant. Let's not forget of course that Comey told Trump that he personally wasn't under investigation
Now we know of course that one of the prime movers behind the decision to fire Comey was Jared Kushner, who had lobbied for it, even trying to convince Trump that Comey could lead to the President. My own suspicion is that Comey would actually alight on Kushner, and he was disguising this danger and presenting is as threat to Trump in order to persuade the President to remove the threat
That Miller and Trump made such a mess of drafting the letter to Comey seems to underline that they were oblivious to the jeopardy the President was placing himself in by agreeing to Kushner's advice. That Rosenstein had to rewrite it also suggests there was a problem. Even 24 hrs later Trump does a remarkable interview with Lester Holt where he just blows the whole justification up on television, again, seemingly oblivious to the fact he's laying himself wide open to an obstruction charge. We learn months later that he's begun to hold Kushner responsible for this bad political advice. Well of course he is doing. Before he fired Comey the chances are there wasn't a great deal they could make stick on Trump individually, now they can.
That I believe, is where we are at.
