Is Donald Trump mad?

I prefer the late Robin Williams quote:

"these are people who think the Dukes of Hazard is a documentary"

There is an issue here though. Roy Moore was an absolutely shocking candidate. This is someone who has twice been thrown off the bench as a judge for refusing to apply federal law. He's got a string of credible sexual allegations against him, and quite recently was recorded saying that the US should drop all its amendments below the tenth and adopt the ten commandments from the bible instead. Despite all these disqualifying traits, 48% still wanted him as their representative

The problem the GOP has going forward isn't massively dissimilar to Labour's by way of organisational structure. The politically engaged (those who can primary) are the more extreme. Steve Bannon understands this and can continue to line up all sorts of god awful sewer dwellers. This is going to lead to traditional conservatives like Jeff Flake, Bob Corker et al getting primaried out. Only when the wider electorate is asked to take a view however will these candidates be rejected (potentially). I say potentially because the evidence from Alabama isn't actually as encouraging as the bare result suggests. Moore set an incredibly low bar and still came perilously close

I'm wondering how long it will be before Trump blames Sessions! Though Trump is a double loser here. First he backed Luther Strange (a candidate who would have won) and then switched into Moore.

I suspect Bannon is the big loser though, and the people who have to be most worried are the GOP and McConnell in particular
 
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Warbler said:
for anyone interested, this is the live reporting as results come in
Click to expand...

Meant to say thanks for this last night, Warbler. Somewhat of a roller-coaster watching the NYT ticker until about 02:50, when it started to look like it would go the right way.

Worth bearing in mind that almost half of Alabamans still chose a peadophile over a liberal, which hints at the location of the moral-compass of many people, in that 'strongly-Christian' ****-box of a State.
 
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Some amusing comment in the media about Roy Moore's horsemanship, both Mika and Elise Jordan expressing extreme sympathy for the poor horse whilst pointing out his technical riding errors

The other Trump response I considered incidentally (but didn't post because blaming Jeff Sessions sounded more ridiculous) was whether he might try and take credit for picking Luther Strange. Sure he enough, he has done

If the Democrats can keep their heads above water in the November holds now, then Nevada and Arizona look like possible pick ups. It also seems unlikely that John McCain will see out 2018, at some point he's going to become too ill to carry on, what happens then? Does America have a pairing system in the senate? or is he allowed to vote in absentia?
 
Is this the first time in its inglorious history that Alabama has had a 'moderate' Democrat as its senator?

The former 'Southern Democrats' who held it and neighbouring States for decades prior to a relatively recent shift in the area to the Republicans were generally a thoroughly bigoted and right-wing bunch; Jimmy Carter a noteworthy exception
 
Let's remember where this thing started.

Moore was headed to a pretty convincing victory without the credible pedo allegations. 20% margin was at the lower end of the projection scale. Jones had zero chance of winning.

Act one: Intrepid reporting by journalists of the Washington Post changed the trajectory of this election but Moore still expected to win. Thank goodness Jeff Bezos owns this wonderful publication.
Act two: Overwhelming numbers of the resistance, namely African American voters, going to the ballot box to repudiate among many things the politics of vanity,atavism and callousness.
CNN reported that a higher percentage of African Americans in Alabama voted for Jones than for Obama in 08 and 12. If so monumental!

The first election in Alabama in 25 years to swing a Democrats way.
Oh the irony that its the brothers and sisters that at least in this instance saved America from itself.
Special mention also to Colin Kaepernick who on a completely different plain has created lots of much needed awareness and lit some fires that needed to be lit, to the detriment of his career.

So yes 48% for Moore is still infernal but.....

I think the rule (not 100% sure) for a senator not able to vote is that his vote becomes in essence a zero position meaning not yes or no. 99 votes instead of 100.
 
Clearly the black vote was important (critical) but wouldn't have been enough by itself. My own suspicion is that as its post polled we might discover that white women played a bigger role that has perhaps otherwise been reported (although we might never know of course). It's just hunch I've got that they were telling friends, family, and pollsters one thing, and then doing another. A bit of me thinks they have to have done

Interesting to see what happens then if McCain becomes too ill that he can no longer participate. One assumes he'll go back to Arizona so I doubt he's going to be flying to DC every time Trump needs him, so that reduces the senate to 50-49. That leaves the likes Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins (her decision to run for Governor in Maine looks big all of a sudden) potentially holding the balance of power. Then there's the likes of Bob Corker and Jeff Flake to try and keep sweet too. I can't see how Trump is going to pass anything controversial through the Senate in a hurry, as both Collins and Murkowski will block him. Ben Sasse is another who has hardly been an enthusiastic Trumpeter although I'm not sure his reservations have really crossed into voting rebellion just yet

What we could also see happen of course in the next 6 months (in fact its quite normal to some degree) is Senators in danger of losing in November begin to try and put some distance between them and the white house
 
Warbler said:
Clearly the black vote was important (critical) but wouldn't have been enough by itself. My own suspicion is that as its post polled we might discover that white women played a bigger role that has perhaps otherwise been reported (although we might never know of course). It's just hunch I've got that they were telling friends, family, and pollsters one thing, and then doing another. A bit of me thinks they have to have done
Click to expand...

Yes, that was my suspicion as well. Black turnout + (affluent, suburban) white women seemed to get him over the line.

I don't think we should underestimate the magnitude of this. Trump won Alabama by 28 points in 2016 - the state is about as deep red as they come. At the same time, it's difficult to extrapolate an election with a shockingly weak, tainted Republican candidate into predicting what will happen in the 2018 midterms etc. The fact is the Democrats are still up against it - there are more vulnerable Democrat incumbents (in Trump states) than vice versa.

On Alabama - though it's tempting to view the 48% who voted for Moore as incestuous, tobacco chewing, Bible thumping hypocritical wankers, there is a larger issue at play. Thanks to Trump, Bannon and co, many just don't believe a word that comes from the 'establishment' Washington elite and / or mainstream 'fake news' media. I read a quote in the NYT from a Moore supporter the day before the election. He said if someone had done what Moore was accused of to his daughter he would beat them to a pulp, but that he was still voting for Moore because he was overwhelmingly suspicious that the Washington Post published the allegations in last stretch of the campaign (and he just didn't believe a word they wrote). There is a disconnect between a lot of white America and American institutions that is worrying (and being stoked daily by the likes of Bannon).
 
Trump enters new territory today

"
Since taking office I have been very strict on Commercial Aviation. Good news - it was just reported that there were Zero deaths in 2017, the best and safest year on record!​
"

Now we're used to seeing batshit crazy claims being made delusional dictators. North Koreans are told that Kim Jong Un can control the weather for instance. America is now asking us to believe that their President has the ability to keep all the world's airliners safe. Fly with complete confidence, Donald Trump is protecting you

I'm tempted to ask mind you if he extends the same logic to trains given that one crashed in Washington state a couple of weeks ago, plus another one in Germany and India
 
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