Is two and a half miles a specialist championship distance?

[reet hard]

Matt Chapman made the error (this morning) of stating that high class 2 milers have no problem staying 2.5.
Such as Rooster Booster and Well Chief give the lie to that, as neither could manage it, even around a flat, sharp Aintree.

 

[Euronymous]

For me the introduction of the Ryanair and its subsequent upgrade to a Grade 1 was the right thing to do. I also believe we should have the equivalent hurdle race.

There is a huge difference between 2 miles and 3 and it takes completely different types to win, so it has always made sense to have two and a half mile grade 1’s, as they take a different type as well.

Don’t forget the Gold Cup is 3m 2f, and on the same basis I wouldn’t be averse to the Stayers being run over the same trip if a 2.5 mile hurdle were to be introduced.

In all cases we would still see the same winners at 2m and 3m 2f, and we would also get legitimate champions over 2.5 miles. How could that be a bad thing?

There isn't enough good hurdlers around to justify three championship divisions.

 

[Bachelors Hall]

Call it

Sprinter Sacre by daylight in 2013, Sprinter Sacre by a shadow in 2016.

I'd be of the opinion that we should have championship races at all of the general distances that are raced. I don't have set thoughts on how that should be achieved.

I do not believe that two and a half miles is a championship distance as I have demonstrated numerous times in this thread. Nevertheless, what is wrong with using the Melling Chase given that it was the de-facto championship race before the Ryanair? Not only is it a fair challenge for the best twenty furlong horses but it also allows the Champion Chase and Gold Cup horses to compete together.

I'd rather have the Ryanair than have it's protagonists racing over inadequate trips or stopping 3 furlongs out.

But in most instances, its protagonists would not suffer both if they are championship class. Un Des Sceaux would be highly competitive in a Champion Chase and Imperial Commander in a Gold Cup. Even of the classic Ryanair horse Albertas Run, the RSA chase which he won is closer to the Gold Cup trip than the Ryanair. He was beaten in his sole attempt in the Gold Cup too far from home for stamina to have been an issue. Good and admirable though he was Albertas Run was still shy of top class which reinforces my contention that two and a half is not a championship distance.

For me the introduction of the Ryanair and its subsequent upgrade to a Grade 1 was the right thing to do. I also believe we should have the equivalent hurdle race.

What a vile idea. The Mares' hurdle has already made a joke of Quevega's career and almost did the same to Annie Power. Given that Faugheen, Rock On Ruby, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq all contested the Baring Bingham as novices, there's a good chance several of them would have won your equivalent hurdle race instead of the Champion. On this basis alone there is no earthly justification for such a race.

There is a huge difference between 2 miles and 3 and it takes completely different types to win, so it has always made sense to have two and a half mile grade 1’s, as they take a different type as well.

There can be although the versatility of high class animals is underestimated given that so many good horses are capable of performing within a few pounds of their best over both trips. Furthermore, the difference between two miles and three mile two is that they test different attributes - speed and stamina. However, the difference between those trips and the intermediate distance is largely negligible for championship horses since they either have the pace to step down or the class to step up. The top class "inbetweener" who specialises at twenty furlongs and can beat all comers from two and three miles is a myth. I have found two from the past thirty years - Al Eile and Blazing Walker - who threatened to hold this claim. The former was never tried over three and the latter can only be considered due to an outlier performance. Any other horse who would claim to be a legitimate two and a half mile champion will almost always be beaten by a contemporary speedster or stayer.

Don’t forget the Gold Cup is 3m 2f, and on the same basis I wouldn’t be averse to the Stayers being run over the same trip if a 2.5 mile hurdle were to be introduced.

Then the trial for the Stayers Hurdle would be held at Sedgefield since that is the only course to my recollection that hosts hurdle races over three and a quarter. An entirely new discipline should be not created just to satiate the compulsion for another nothing race at the festival.

In all cases we would still see the same winners at 2m and 3m 2f, and we would also get legitimate champions over 2.5 miles. How could that be a bad thing?

We absolutely would not as I have demonstrated time and time again in this thread. It can not be said with any confidence say that none of the horses listed in the earlier Ryanair competitors list would not have been competitive in either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup. If the Ryanair existed in perfect isolation and was guaranteed not to interfere with the quality of the Champion Chase or Gold Cup then I would not be claiming it is a bad thing. But this is demonstrably not the case which is why I can empirically state that it IS a bad thing.

There isn't enough good hurdlers around to justify three championship divisions.

Very true although even if there was, there is not enough difference between the three distances to justify splitting the established divisions...

I asked the opening question in good faith and opened my initial assertion to challenges with the intention of having my understanding on the matter altered in the light of compelling evidence. This is still very much the case but I remain unmoved from these positions;-

Intermediate distance races are brilliant and fully deserve their places in the calendar.
They serve a fascinating function in assessing the relative merits of the best two and three milers.
They also allow good horses who lack top class speed or stamina to compete outside of handicaps.
The intermediate distance is not conducive to producing legitimate specialist champions.
The best horses at twenty furlongs are almost always equally good or better at two or three miles.
The Ryanair Chase is a pointless and destructive abomination which does not establish champions. Nevertheless, it can and regularly does either prevent others from being established or diminish the legitimacy of a champion by weakening the calibre of opposition.
An equivalent hurdle race is a shockingly terrible idea.

These points have been repeatedly supported by evidence. They have mostly been challenged by baseless theory and any evidence used has been refuted.

On reading through this post, I can see how I could be coming across as aggressive/arrogant/condescending which is not by design. I do not view my opinion as irrefutable fact, rather it is the most credible interpretation of the subject based on the available evidence. I have no reason to dislike anybody here and am appreciative of the engagement

 

[granger]

Good posting welcome BH and an interesting topic which has us talking

Yes point by point analysis can read a tad bit argumentative but it's better than a quiet forum

 

[Bachelors Hall]

Appreciated granger

In a complete about turn, what if twenty furlongs was THE championship distance and that two and three miles were the charlatan divisions which detracted from the truest tests of speed and stamina? The sprinting and staying divisions carry less prestige than the middle distances on the flat since they only really test one attribute or the other.

Could it be that while the divisions on the flat are broken down into tangible divisions due to the pacing of the races, the pacing of jumps races is considerably more measured which requires an exaggeration of race distances in order to unravel any real distinction in an animal's attributes?

 

[granger]

That race just now is a brilliant advertisement for a match bet

Great race

I'd love to see an intermediate race post March which would allow the QM winner to face the GC winner

 

[Maruco]

Apologies for the delay responding. It was a combination of time, and trying to ignore the robustness of the response combined with the distinct lack of detail offered. I should add that I like the idea of the thread, and the debate it has created. Just not so much the forthright ‘I demand I’m right’ approach to an opposing view. Anyhow…………..



Originally Posted by Maruco
For me the introduction of the Ryanair and its subsequent upgrade to a Grade 1 was the right thing to do. I also believe we should have the equivalent hurdle race.

Your response:
What a vile idea. The Mares' hurdle has already made a joke of Quevega's career and almost did the same to Annie Power. Given that Faugheen, Rock On Ruby, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq all contested the Baring Bingham as novices, there's a good chance several of them would have won your equivalent hurdle race instead of the Champion. On this basis alone there is no earthly justification for such a race.

The Mares Hurdle made a joke of Quevga’s career. Really!!! The Mares Hurdle made her career. And citing the Baring Bingham is a nonsense. That’s having your argument both ways, and I’m sure as you assert that they would have gone for the prestige of the Champion Hurdle anyway. Of that list the only one that may not is Rock On Ruby, who if he hadn’t nobody would have noticed anyway. In fact if the first and second (Overturn), had gone intermediate everyone would have believed it was a much better Champion Hurdle!!!



Originally Posted by Maruco
There is a huge difference between 2 miles and 3 and it takes completely different types to win, so it has always made sense to have two and a half mile grade 1’s, as they take a different type as well.

Your response:
There can be although the versatility of high class animals is underestimated given that so many good horses are capable of performing within a few pounds of their best over both trips. Furthermore, the difference between two miles and three mile two is that they test different attributes - speed and stamina. However, the difference between those trips and the intermediate distance is largely negligible for championship horses since they either have the pace to step down or the class to step up. The top class "inbetweener" who specialises at twenty furlongs and can beat all comers from two and three miles is a myth. I have found two from the past thirty years - Al Eile and Blazing Walker - who threatened to hold this claim. The former was never tried over three and the latter can only be considered due to an outlier performance. Any other horse who would claim to be a legitimate two and a half mile champion will almost always be beaten by a contemporary speedster or stayer.

You argue against yourself here. The two and half champion is therefore the one who has the blend of speed and stamina for the intermediate champion. There are many more horses that fit that bill that the ones you mention, but are never fully recognised because they don’t have the speed to win a Champion Hurdle or the stamina to win the Stayers. Off the top of my head with no research two very recent horses that spring to mind are Supersundae and The New One. I’m sure if I did some results searches I could find many more over the years. Right now I don’t have the time, but I suspect a good look at both Aintree and Punchestown would draw many more out over the years.



Originally Posted by Maruco
Don’t forget the Gold Cup is 3m 2f, and on the same basis I wouldn’t be averse to the Stayers being run over the same trip if a 2.5 mile hurdle were to be introduced.

Your response:
Then the trial for the Stayers Hurdle would be held at Sedgefield since that is the only course to my recollection that hosts hurdle races over three and a quarter. An entirely new discipline should be not created just to satiate the compulsion for another nothing race at the festival.

Tosh. The trials for the Gold Cup are over 3 miles as well. Perhaps they should go for a 3m 2f Chase at Sedgefield instead of Haydock, Cheltenham Trials Day, Newbury on February, etc. You are totally exaggerating to make your arguments fit your position.



Originally Posted by Maruco
In all cases we would still see the same winners at 2m and 3m 2f, and we would also get legitimate champions over 2.5 miles. How could that be a bad thing?

Your response:
We absolutely would not as I have demonstrated time and time again in this thread. It can not be said with any confidence say that none of the horses listed in the earlier Ryanair competitors list would not have been competitive in either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup. If the Ryanair existed in perfect isolation and was guaranteed not to interfere with the quality of the Champion Chase or Gold Cup then I would not be claiming it is a bad thing. But this is demonstrably not the case which is why I can empirically state that it IS a bad thing.

Nor can it be said with any confidence that they wouldn’t. Demonstrably? Empirically? Really? These are just words to try and make yourself persuasive without evidence. Which Ryanair winners do you genuinely believe would have won either the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup that season??? I can perhaps think of one that you might cite in recent seasons, and that one I do not believe would have stayed in the Gold Cup anyway which is why he was sent that route, and is precisely the point.

 

[littlelad]

That race just now is a brilliant advertisement for a match bet

Great race

I'd love to see an intermediate race post March which would allow the QM winner to face the GC winner

Like a 2m 4f race at Aintree perhaps!!

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

 

[granger]

Like a 2m 4f race at Aintree perhaps!!

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

would prob need to be 2m6f

 

[wilsonl]

Like a 2m 4f race at Aintree perhaps!!

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk

That raises an interesting point as while it can be argued that the Ryanair detracts from the Gold Cup and Champion Chase it could equally be argued that the alluded to Melling and 3m1f Bowl invariably attract small fields and a 2m6f chase would be interesting but would surely mean even further depleted fields.

 

[Bachelors Hall]

That raises an interesting point as while it can be argued that the Ryanair detracts from the Gold Cup and Champion Chase it could equally be argued that the alluded to Melling and 3m1f Bowl invariably attract small fields and a 2m6f chase would be interesting but would surely mean even further depleted fields.

I think this is partly why the Bowl was a Grade 2 for a while. Perhaps its purpose is to cater for the out and out stayers who do not wish to risk their charge in the National. Or maybe it reflects the lack of esteem commanded by the intermediate "division".

While using the slippery slope fallacy, if one can attempt to force a two mile four division, why not a two mile two, two mile six and so forth until every furlong then every half furlong, then every yard gets a division?

Just not so much the forthright ‘I demand I’m right’ approach to an opposing view.

Hi Maruco. Thank you for your response. I genuinely appreciate your taking the time to engage with the points I have made.

I tried to account for this perception in that post but I must have been unsuccessful. Without delving into it too much, I have been told on many an occasion that my tone does not faithfully represent my intent and probable neurological factors behind my being unintentionally rude, inconsiderate or so forth have been suggested.

I have confidence in my opinion on this matter which is why I am inviting others to criticise same. What results from these critiques is that either my opinions are altered in the face of compelling evidence, or they become more robust due to their being able to withstand said critiques. I find both the positive and negative engagements helpful in developing my understanding on a matter and hopefully, so too might others. I can assure you this is not an exercise in "I am smarter than everybody and everybody must accept my genius". Believe me, I have met more than enough people who make me respect the fact that I am decidedly workmanlike in my brain power!

Furthermore, while I made the invitation to rebuttals in a post which dealt with your considered points, it was open to everybody and not a personal jab. I have nothing but respect for you on these forums and I hope you understand that any forthrightness on my part is directed towards the opinions I am challenging and not the person who has presented them. Again, if anybody has taken the time to engage with me then that person has my respect.

The Mares Hurdle made a joke of Quevga’s career. Really!!! The Mares Hurdle made her career.

Really. When I think of festival mares, I recall the likes of Annie Power, Dubacilla, Mysilv, Voler La Vedette and Dawn Run because they took on the best and emerged with credit. As talented a racehorse Quevega was (I think - not too sure thanks to the Mares' Hurdle), I remember her as a mare who beat a bunch of barely pattern class mares to win an easy race with forgettable renewals. It is a great shame she never had a chance to build a rivalry with Big Buck's which would have been much more memorable than that epic duel she had with...

citing the Baring Bingham is a nonsense. That’s having your argument both ways

How so? I mentioned earlier in the thread that I am ambivalent about intermediate novice events as the novice season is one for experimentation and does not carry the same prestige as the senior divisions.

I’m sure as you assert that they would have gone for the prestige of the Champion Hurdle anyway.

Far from it. Were that the case then the prestige of the Champion Chase and Gold Cup would have left the Ryanair to exclusively attract lower class horses who would not have stood a chance in the big races. The Champion Hurdle's prestige might help to a degree but the Stayers' Hurdle, which already struggles given that it offers less prize money than the Ryanair, would suffer immeasurably.

Of that list the only one that may not is Rock On Ruby, who if he hadn’t nobody would have noticed anyway.

Would Hardy Eustace, after winning the Baring Bingham, placing in the twenty furlong Cleeve Hurdle and losing to Georges Girl in a Grade 2 at a trip which according to RP analysis was "short of his optimum", have eschewed your intermediate hurdle race to take on Rooster Booster in a race he started at 33/1? With Faugheen, it was touch and go as to whether he or "on a different level" Vautour would be sent chasing. As it happened, Faugheen stayed over hurdles to beat Arctic Fire and Hurricane Fly in the big one. Would all three of those stayed in the Champion or would at least one of them have gone for the intermediate instead? Istabraq was described by AOB after the Baring Bingham as having "the pace to win a Champion on the soft". As it turned out, it was good ground in 1998 when Istabraq beat his stablemate Theatreworld so at the very least, the front two of that race may have looked different. That is three legendary winners with compelling reasons as to why it was far from certain they would have ran in the Champion - and these are just the examples taken from those who completed the Baring Bingham/Champion Hurdle double.

As for Rock on Ruby, are you suggesting that because the best horse for the race on the day was not everybody's idea of the best horse, it would have been better if the race was weaker?

You argue against yourself here. The two and half champion is therefore the one who has the blend of speed and stamina for the intermediate champion.

I did put out the question as to why intermediate distances are more prestigious on the flat than the sprinting and stayers divisions before considering that as most top class jumps horses are effective at the trip, the split between two and three miles is the easiest way to make a distinction. Most of the best horses at two and three miles are effective at two and a half so having this combination of speed and stamina is not especially unique.

There are many more horses that fit that bill that the ones you mention, but are never fully recognised because they don’t have the speed to win a Champion Hurdle or the stamina to win the Stayers. Off the top of my head with no research two very recent horses that spring to mind are Supersundae and The New One. I’m sure if I did some results searches I could find many more over the years. Right now I don’t have the time, but I suspect a good look at both Aintree and Punchestown would draw many more out over the years.

I mentioned the chasers in the opening post and included placed horses from Hatton's Graces and Aintree Hurdles for the benefit of your argument. But in the interests of thoroughness these are the horses who have achieved RPRs of 166 or above at intermediate trips this century. Where appropriate, I will also make arguments for them being two miles, three milers or in the instances befitting classy horses, versatile. This is subjective but for the sake of standard, I will consider that if a horse can be placed in a Champion or Stayers' Hurdle then they have a case for being at or close to the top of that particular division and a right to claim that the distance is very much within the scope.

Al Eile - The aforementioned. Won a Grade One and a Grade Two at two miles and fourth of eighteen in the 2006 Champion. Never tried three miles but every indication he would have been successful at the trip given he was fourth in a Cesarewitch and third in a Queen Alexandra.
Annie Power - Won a Champion Hurdle, second in a Stayers'.
Apple's Jade - Won Irish Champion Hurdle by sixteen lengths, won Christmas Hurdle by twenty-six.
Arctic Fire - Second in Cheltenham, Leopardstown and Punchestown Champion Hurdles.
Baracouda - Seven Grade One wins at three miles.
Barton - Possible outlier based on his outstanding defeat of Best Mate on heavy ground in the 2001 Aintree Hurdle. Nevertheless, he still had the pace to win a slowly run Fighting Fifth and finish second in a Bula but also proved he stayed three miles in the Mildmay Chase.
Buveur d'Air - Eight Grade One wins at two miles.
Catch Me - Makes the list on account of two Navan Grade Twos and a Hattons Grace where he beat veterans Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace. Also won Grade Twos at two and three miles and was second in a Pertemps Final.
Jezki - Five Grade Ones at two miles including a Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Hurdle. Also won the Punchestown Stayers' Hurdle.
Lady Rebecca - Won three Cleeve Hurdles at the intermediate trip when it was briefly a Grade One but also managed to place in the Cheltenham and Punchestown Stayers'.
Limestone Lad - Six wins from seven in three mile Irish graded races and twice placed in the Stayers'.
Oscar Whisky - Mostly campaigned at twenty furlongs but still had the pace to finish third in a Champion and showed he stayed when running Reve De Sivola to a neck in a heavy ground Cleeve Hurdle.
Rhinestone Cowboy - Third in a Champion Hurdle, beat Iris's Gift in the Punchestown Stayers' by seven lengths.
Rooster Booster - Champion Hurdler
The New One - Third in a Champion Hurdle, seven Grade Two wins at two miles, one win from five in his ideal Aintree Hurdle.
Youlneverwalkalone - Defeat of Moscow Flyer in Hatton's Grace was by far and away the best of his efforts at the trip which are followed by a twelve length defeat in the Tripleprint off 139 and a twenty-one length defeat at the hands of Harbour Pilot in the PJ Moriarty. He still had the speed to finish third in a Supreme, the stamina to win the National Hunt Handicap Chase at the festival off 142 along with a large field three mile Leopardstown Handicap Chase.

Supasundae's best twenty furlong RPR is 159 which is ranked behind his efforts in the Leopardstown and Punchestown Champion Hurdles and the Christmas and Stayers' Hurdles.

If I am being generous, from the above I could classify Catch Me and Lady Rebecca as horses who were best at twenty furlongs to the point they were at a discernible disadvantage over shorter or further. Catch Me would not have beaten his best contemporaries from two or three miles over twenty furlongs and can not be called a champion. Maybe Lady Rebecca has a plausible argument but she probably would have gone for the Mares' Hurdle in any case...

Tosh. The trials for the Gold Cup are over 3 miles as well. Perhaps they should go for a 3m 2f Chase at Sedgefield instead of Haydock, Cheltenham Trials Day, Newbury on February, etc. You are totally exaggerating to make your arguments fit your position.

Three mile two is not a novelty distance over fences whereas it is over hurdles. You are suggesting the exaggeration of the Stayers' Hurdle distance in order for your intermediate hurdle race to fit. My exaggeration was to illustrate the departure from reality that yours necessitates.

Nor can it be said with any confidence that they wouldn’t. Demonstrably? Empirically? Really? These are just words to try and make yourself persuasive without evidence. Which Ryanair winners do you genuinely believe would have won either the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup that season??? I can perhaps think of one that you might cite in recent seasons, and that one I do not believe would have stayed in the Gold Cup anyway which is why he was sent that route, and is precisely the point.

My point is that the Ryanair does not exist in perfect isolation from the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. There are horses regularly competing in the Ryanair which would have had a chance in either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup. Since this is speculation regarding unverifiable unknowns, it would be difficult to reach absolute certainty. Particularly as favourites do not win every renewal and that an inspired ride or a peak equine performance can affect the result of any given race. As such, the aim ought to be plausibility and I find the premise that the Ryanair's impact on the marque events has been negligible at most to be implausible. In order for this premise to work, it must be demonstrated that every runner in the Ryanair would have started at large odds had they competed in the other two races. If this can not be demonstrated then one has to conclude that the Ryanair interferes with the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup.

As a thought exercise, how many of those horses listed here would you have comfortably laid at odds of greater than 10/1 in their alternative targets? If it is all of them then it would be fair to suggest that the Ryanair does not interfere with the Champion Chase or Gold Cup. If it is anything less then it becomes a question of how much of the collateral damage to the big races can be deemed justifiable. For me, one horse diverted from either becoming champion or validating the form of a championship race is one too many. For others, a couple instances per decade might be acceptable. Looking at past participants in the Ryanair, I would suggest that instances exceed far more than a couple per decade.

Once again, I appreciate your response and my robustness is directed not towards the individual but at the arguments. I also welcome responses from anybody who feels they can refute any of my positions (including the one where I show the overlap in the current Champion Chase and Ryanair ante-post markets).

 

[Maruco]

Hi Maruco. Thank you for your response. I genuinely appreciate your taking the time to engage with the points I have made.

I tried to account for this perception in that post but I must have been unsuccessful. Without delving into it too much, I have been told on many an occasion that my tone does not faithfully represent my intent and probable neurological factors behind my being unintentionally rude, inconsiderate or so forth have been suggested.

I have confidence in my opinion on this matter which is why I am inviting others to criticise same. What results from these critiques is that either my opinions are altered in the face of compelling evidence, or they become more robust due to their being able to withstand said critiques. I find both the positive and negative engagements helpful in developing my understanding on a matter and hopefully, so too might others. I can assure you this is not an exercise in "I am smarter than everybody and everybody must accept my genius". Believe me, I have met more than enough people who make me respect the fact that I am decidedly workmanlike in my brain power!

Furthermore, while I made the invitation to rebuttals in a post which dealt with your considered points, it was open to everybody and not a personal jab. I have nothing but respect for you on these forums and I hope you understand that any forthrightness on my part is directed towards the opinions I am challenging and not the person who has presented them. Again, if anybody has taken the time to engage with me then that person has my respect.

Fully accepted BH. And I appreciate you taking the time to say it.

 

[Maruco]

The thread above is getting too long so I'll try and capture why I still disagree with the points you make above.

When I think of pantheon of great Mares, I think of those you mention, but I also think of Quevega. Her achievement is remarkable, but despite others being talked of in the same breath since, none can come close to matching her achievement and status. The two I would have alongside her are Dawn Run and Annie Power who have their own specific achievements particularly Dawn Run. The point here is that our opinions differ, and neither are right. They are just opinions and in this instance it doesn’t make the case you want it to.

You say you’re ambivalent about the intermediate division with novices and that it doesn’t carry the prestige as the senior divisions. The first part is your personal opinion, and the second will obviously be the case. I’d argue though that most true racing fans get pretty excited about the novice divisions at the Festival, and I’m pretty confident that I’m not alone in trying to pick the very best out thorough the season. It's part of the thrill of the season in all divisions. Outside of the open Grade 1’s, the novice events hold far more interest than any other type of race for me whatever distance they’re run over. I’m also trying to figure out what the optimum trip is for the genuine contenders, as are their trainers and connections I might add. I’m not sure what this adds to your case to convince me I’m wrong though.

You say you don’t believe previous winners of the Champion Hurdle would have gone for it anyway. We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one, but I’m pretty certain that all bar Rock On Ruby would have done. You state the case using Hardy Eustace, but fortunately I have an inside track on that one, and I can tell you categorically that the only choices were Champion Hurdle or Chasing. The same was true of Brave Inca. Istabraq was always regarded as a Champion Hurdle horse, and Faugheen was given a crack at the Champion Hurdle before going novice chasing. His trials showed he had the speed for it and the rest is history. An intermediate hurdle wouldn’t have been an option. You are categorically down the wrong track with this angle, I suspect because the missing part of your thought process is that of trainers and owners in these circumstances.

You say most of the best two and three mile horses are effective at the intermediate distance. That’s not necessarily true is it? There is a difference between running a decent race because of their ability, and being able to be at their very best when they are better over shorter or further. That is also true of a horse that is able to be at their very best over two and half and still decent over shorter or further.

You RPR argument is irrelevant. If there is no Intermediate Champion Hurdle at the Festival being run at Championship pace then how are you going to see RPR’s that rival the other Championship races. You are using an apples and oranges argument. Even worse you are stating that if a horse is able to place in a Champion Hurdle or a Stayers Hurdle they would be able to produce the same in an Intermediate Champion. For the reason above that is nothing more than your own (incorrect and with no basis) assumption. Over the years, far too many two milers have been stepped up and failed, and far too may three milers have stepped down and failed. To make my point I’ll circle back to Rock On Ruby as a simple example. He won a Champion Hurdle, but then failed to follow up over two and half at Aintree, beaten by Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars who were both better than him over two and half. At his next Aintree attempt he was beaten by The New One. Another horse who’s trip was palpably two and half and was stuck between Championship races. Yes he acted at two but he was much better over the intermediate trip. A point that you’d struggle to argue, as I’m fairly certain there isn’t anyone amongst us who believes different irrespective of what you would want RPR’s to say. If for example the New One had won three Intermediate Hurdles at the Festival would you still have him down as a horse that wasn’t quite good enough, or as a horse that was at his very best over that trip and deserving of his intermediate crown?

You say 3m2f isn’t a ‘novelty’ distance over fences but it is over hurdles. The use of the word ‘novelty’ is interesting and perhaps an insight to the basis of your argument. Traditionalist against progression? Don't like change? Why would the Stayers over a trip of 3m2f be a novelty anyway? That’s a mindset not a fact.

You go on to say that it must be demonstrated that every runner in the Ryanair must have started at large odds had they competed rather than in the other two races. If this can not be demonstrated then one has to conclude that the Ryanair interferes with the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. Why is that the case? Why would I have to demonstrate that? Also using odds as a way to frame your argument makes no sense. Odds are I the context of a race as is. They also don’t’ necessarily find you the winner. If you want to use odds as a guide please give me the winners of all the races this afternoon and I’ll say your right because I won’t need to care anymore!! The Ryanair is a perfectly legitimate race, and is won by the right horses, just as the Champion Chase and Gold Cup are. As I said name a horse that would have won either of the other two and I’ll concede your point, but you can’t, and as I said the only one that you could point to the trainer himself didn’t believe the horse could get the Gold Cup trip. Given he’s the best NH trainer that ever lived I’d be more inclined to his belief it’s a legitimate race than yours. You chose to ignore the point and pick the bits out that suited hoping nobody would notice because it's pretty much impossible to argue against and doesn't fit your position. In addition to this point Archie has already demonstrated that field sizes haven’t changed for the introduction of the Ryanair, in fact the opposite is true.

I can only conclude after two attempts to refute the points made you have no evidence to ‘prove’ what you say is true and therefore not wanting the Ryanair or an intermediate Championship Hurdle is only your opinion and not necessarily against interest of the sport. You have provided nothing factual of relevance, or stats in a context I can accept. That doesn't make you right or wrong of course, it just means that we are left in the same place of differing opinions. A place that's unlikely to change unless you have something new to add that you've been holding up your sleeve?

 

[Bachelors Hall]

I was going on a quote by quote basis for context but it is getting a bit messy!

While we both want the opportunity to witness greatness, it would appear that we differ on how that greatness manifests. Quevega winning the same restricted race over and over again is an endorsement of Willie Mullins' skills. It is also an achievement of consistency but not necessarily an achievement of outstanding merit. Risk of Thunder and Credit Call both achieved their landmark wins in restricted events (La Touche Cup and Adam Scott Memorial Cup respectively) with Timeform ratings of 111. Conversely, Hurricane Fly's achievement of winning the Irish Champion Hurdle five times is more a component than the sum of his greatness. Feel free to put Quevega on the same pedestal as Dawn Run and Annie Power. That is your want and nobody can take that from you. But she can only be the equal of those actual champions by dint of sentimentality. Furthermore, would you deny that Quevega's absences from the Stayers' Hurdles deprived those races a degree of quality?

To clarify, I am ambivalent about the impact intermediate novice races have on their shorter and longer counterparts - a criticism levied in the earlier posts by others. I am not ambivalent about their existence. I like novice races. I think novice races are good. I believe we have may have found some common ground here.

As much as I respect your inside track, it occurs in a timeline where the Ryanair, the Mares' Hurdle and the hypothetical Intermediate Hurdle do not exist. If Quevega was in her pomp during the early 2000s, there would have been no chance of her running in the Mares' Hurdle. A few of the 129 horses who have contested the Ryanair since it was given Grade One status might have gone for the Cathcart had they qualified but none of them would have gone for the Ryanair. Under the contemporary conditions, you may have understood or even have been explicitly told the plans of the trainers and owners. However, not even the connections themselves can categorically tell you about hypothetical decisions they would have made in an alternate timeline. Particularly as they can often leave decisions to race selection weeks, days or even hours before the festival itself.

I am not suggesting that every single top class two miler and stayer can run to their best at twenty furlongs. I have used examples such as Sanctuaire, Young Snugfit, Native River and Bonanza Boy to show that some horses have ranges that fall either side twenty furlongs. Sanctuaire and Young Snugfit may have been unbeatable in fourteen furlong chases while Native River and Bonanza Boy could have been imperious in a weight for age Grade One Eider Chase. Nevertheless, the aforementioned are still a minority among the best jumps horses since most will have a range which encompasses two and half miles. My theory is that the more measured pace over jumps than on the flat means that the difference a furlong or two makes to flat horses translates to roughly twice that over jumps. As most flat horses have an optimum distance range that encompasses at least two furlongs, so then will most jumps horses have one that encompasses at least four. Sometimes this range is greater even than a mile with examples such as Flyingbolt, Kauto Star, Desert Orchid and Dawn Run. But a perusal of the many many horses/examples mentioned in this thread will show that the best at two and three provide the best at two and a half. It is not a coincidence that the so-called twenty furlong specialists are almost always inferior to the two and three mile horses even when they meet at the specialist intermediate distance.

My statement was that if a horse can place in a Champion Hurdle or a Stayers, it has a right to be considered at least a two or three miler respectively. I did not state that they would be able to produce the same in an intermediate championship race although this has been shown to be true much more often than not. What I did state is that the best intermediate performances are almost always made by two and three milers which I demonstrated with the evidence provided in that break down. Using your Rock On Ruby example, is the argument that he was a sixteen furlong horse who was way below his best at twenty furlongs? He absolutely stayed twenty-one furlongs since he ran all the way to the line on each of the four occasions he tried the trip at Cheltenham (yes he was nabbed by First Lieutenant but he still pulled clear of the rest). His Aintree efforts were no more than a few lengths off his Champion Hurdle runs and were as good as anything else he achieved at two miles. Those few lengths are more sensibly explained by the fact that Aintree was either an afterthought (as was Punchestown when Hurricane Fly extended the gap between the two in 2013) or followed an interrupted campaign, than the idea that he was, say, seven pounds worse off for the three and a half furlongs sans the Cheltenham hill. Comparing him to The New One doesn't help either since not only did The New One beat Rock On Ruby ten lengths over two miles at Kempton but Rock On Ruby ran in the Relkeel to avoid meeting The New One in the Bula on the same card. All Rock On Ruby v The New One example shows is that performances within that range are interchangeable, supporting my argument without anything resembling a struggle. If we are to assume that The New One contested the Intermediate Hurdle in 2014, 2015 and 2016, then first of all, you have deprived the Champion Hurdle of a horse who started at 10/3, 10/3 and 7/2 - far from a non-hoper. We also have to believe that he would have been able to beat Jezki, Hurricane Fly, Faugheen, Arctic Fire, Annie Power, Nichols Canyon and Quevega in this intermediate race. If you believe that The New One would win the intermediate race against that field three times then you also believe that he was the greatest hurdler of the twenty-first century. If you do not then he was not even the best at the trip in his time. This shows that your Intermediate Hurdle race will either produce unworthy champions or decimate the Champion and Stayers'.

As for the RPR argument being irrelevant, the RPR argument is an actual demonstration of the best performances at that distance this century. Whether they range from 165-175 or 175-190 is immaterial. The horses I posted were literally the best at twenty furlongs over hurdles this century. There were none better. I also posted earlier the most successful horses in twenty furlong events jumps and hurdles over the past forty years. I have no idea where else one could possibly look for the best twenty furlong horses. Yet neither you or anybody else has named a horse who is/was both;-

a) Champion standard - would beat every other horse in training over twenty furlongs

and

b) A twenty furlong specialist - whose form would dip to the point it would no longer be competitive at the best two or three mile races.

If there are horses who regularly satisfy this simple criteria then there is a justification calling two and a half miles a stand-alone championship distance. There are horses that can beat anything at two miles without necessarily being able to beat the best at three. There are three mile champions who might not have the pace for two. There are great horses who could mix it with the best at two and three and exceptional talents who were champions at any distance. But for all the names spilled in this thread, few if any that honestly can be called specialist two and a half mile champions.

I am open to the same being found to the extent that I have compiled a list of the 422 horses who have placed in the first three in all weight for age renewals Ascot Chase, Ascot Hurdle, Hatton's Grace, Punchestown Chase, Aintree Hurdle and Melling Chase since the 1983/84 season. All of them. Every single one. I have even thrown in placed horses from the Black and White as well as the Cleeve Hurdle from when it was a twenty furlong race (which was downgraded from Grade One, presumably because Kates Charm and Classified were not championship standard).

I will not post all 422 horses in this post so this list, which I can not attach at a decent resolution, can be found here.

If there is any such thing as a specialist twenty furlong champion from the past thirty six years then it will be among that heaving mass.

If a horse is shorter than 10/1 then it is not a non-hoper but a live contender. The shorter, the livelier. (If you do not like using odds as an analogy then percentages work just as well). If there are horses that are competing in the Ryanair who would have stood a 10/1 shot's chance or better in either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup then that means the Ryanair, simply by existing, has deprived those races of a contender. It can not be said for certain what would or would not have won a race because there are no thousand-to-one-on shots running at the festival. The best we can do is use odds in order to roughly gauge the damage the Ryanair has done to the Champion Chase and Gold Cup. Since you are unwilling to name horses who would have stood absolutely no chance in the big races, despite the burden of proof lying on yourself, I will name the horses likely to have had started at 10/1 or less in that year's bigger races.

2008
Old Vic - GC - staying on when second the previous year
Mossbank - GC - ran away with Munster National, staying on when second to Denman in the Lexus, sole Gigginstown runner

2009
Imperial Commander - GC - won the Gold Cup the following year - did not need to improve much from eight to nine
Voy Por Ustedes - CC - dual winner and runner up in 2008
Tidal Bay - CC - won 2008 Arkle by 13 lengths, second in Tingle Creek. Also GC - stayed the trip and rated higher than 10/1 shot Barbers Shop

2010
Tranquil Sea - CC - 121 in Graded 2m chases that season, CC had open market outside of Master Minded.
Voy Por Ustedes - CC - see above
Albertas Run and Barbers Shop - GC - larger than 10/1 but both had better prospects than the 12/1 Tricky Trickster

2011
Albertas Run - GC - dual festival winner with better chances than 9/1 shots Midnight Chase and Kempes
Kalahari King - CC - Arkle 2nd, Champion Chase 3rd, comes to life at festival

2012
Riverside Theatre - CC or GC - speedy novice who was runner up in a King George, impressive return in the Ascot Chase after a year off the track, would have been a live contender for either race in the pre-Ryanair days
Albertas Run - GC - getting on a bit but that year's GC was not the strongest - even Medermit would have been given a place chance
Somersby - CC - won Clarence House last time beating CC winner Finian's Rainbow. Highest rated UK horse in field - ended up finishing second in the 2014 and 2015 renewals in any case
Noble Prince - CC - 1222 in graded 2m chases that season

2013
Cue Card - CC or GC - Arkle runner up who won the Haldon Gold Cup by 26 lengths - would have been joint second fav with Sizing Europe in a one horse market, seven year old Cue Card was possibly too young for a Gold Cup but he would not have been lightly dismissed
First Lieutenant - GC - was only in the Ryanair because Gigginstown had Sir Des Champs in the Gold Cup. Would have been right near the top of the market

2014
Dynaste - GC - second in Lancashire Chase, injured when King George favourite, was favourite to beat 1¾l GC fourth Silviniaco Conti next time at Aintree
Hidden Cyclone - CC - coming in off two consecutive seconds in two mile Grade Ones, fell when favourite for Punchestown Champion Chase next time.
Al Ferof - CC or GC - Supreme Novices winner would have been better fancied in a Sprinter Sacre free field than 7/2 shot Captain Conan, wouldn't be longer than 10/1 shot Tirolo D'Alene in the Gold Cup either.
Boston Bob - GC - another case of connections splitting horses - held every chance when falling in the RSA - ended up winning the Punchestown Gold Cup the next month
Benefficient - CC - Won Dial-a-Bet chase last time

2015
Uxizandre - CC - winner of Shloer Chase - probably would have been longer odds due to his being out of form which is a reflection of the quality of this race
Don Cossack - GC - won the next season's Gold Cup but would still have been vying for favouritism even in the highly competitive 2015 edition

2016
Vautour - CC or GC - would have been strongly fancied for either
Valseur Lido - GC - looked all over the winner in the Irish Gold Cup
Road To Riches - GC - third in that very race the previous year

2017
Un Des Sceaux - CC - already beat the winner twice, no reason to suspect he why he would not have made it three
Empire Of Dirt - GC - easy winner of Troytown and keeping on when narrowly beaten by Sizing John in Irish Gold Cup

2018
Un Des Sceaux - CC - see above
Cue Card - GC - would have been in Gold Cup but for Native River, would not have been an outsider

2019
Frodon - GC - won Cotswold Chase,
Road To Respect - GC - fourth in 2018, three wins and four places over three miles in Grade One company
Monalee - GC - keeping on second in both Spa and RSA novices'
Un De Sceaux - CC - see above
Footpad - CC - won four Grade One novices at two miles - including Arkle - by combined forty-two lengths

If you say that there is just one possible winner out of those thirty-eight then I find your sense of humour quirky but amusing. Even if there just a few winners then that is still carnage. Statistically, it is highly improbable that there are not numerous winners and placed horses among that selected group - let alone the remaining ninety-one that I ignored. Even if by astronomical happenstance not a single one of those horses could get close to winning, the strength in depth of the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup has still been compromised. The 2016 Gold Cup being one notable example of several.

In responding to Granger I already addressed Archie's stats (and provided more thorough and accurate numbers) which does nothing to counter the argument that the quality of the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup have been affected.

Increased field sizes + diverted quality runners = diluted fields in CC and GC
Decreased field sizes + diverted quality runners = diminished fields in CC and GC

Field sizes are not a useful metric when the constant diversion of quality runners is the issue at hand.

Now you will need to make clear to me exactly what evidence you are looking for and which claims I have not substantiated because I have not been filling this thread with shopping lists or gluten free recipes. Into this thread I have thrown copious amounts of names and statistics relevant to my assertions. Deliberately comprehensive and exhaustive so as to mitigate against any accusations of cherry picking. Every theory and observation has been based on empirical evidence provided and repeated numerous times in numerous forms. If I have made a point without evidence, feel completely free to expose any empty assertion.

On the other hand, I have not been offered a single twenty furlong champion, a refutation of the chances of the aforementioned thirty-eight or a single explanation as to why there is so much overlap in the Champion Chase and Ryanair markets.

 

[granger]

Maybe it's just me and I don't want to discourage posting but if a post goes beyond 8 lines, I can't follow it

 

[Bachelors Hall]

Maybe it's just me and I don't want to discourage posting but if a post goes beyond 8 lines, I can't follow it

That's fair enough. If I write in essay form, it is so that my points are explained and supported by evidence. Some will appreciate this style while others will lose interest very quickly. I fall into both camps depending on the topic and my energy levels.

If it helps, here are brief summaries in bullet-point form.

*Quevega can be lauded for consistency and soundness but her winning multiple mares' hurdles carries less kudos than had she taken on the boys.

*Novice races are good.

*We can not be certain of how others might have behaved in purely hypothetical circumstances.

*Just as most flat horses have a stamina range of two furlongs or greater, jumps horses have a range of at least half a mile.

*It is unlikely The New One would have been champion twenty furlong horse three years in a row as he would have needed to repeatedly beat a bunch of horses more talented than himself.

*There is no such thing as a specialist twenty furlong champion. Not even among the 422 horses who could possibly fit the bill.

*I have named 38 horses who would have plausibly started at 10/1 or shorter in a Champion Chase or Gold Cup the year they were in the Ryanair.

 

[Bachelors Hall]

Apologies for bumping this thread but it provides context for the bee running riot in my bonnet.

Since my posts on this matter, interim events have further supplemented my utter disgust with the hosting of the Ryanair and the Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Even after winning the Tingle Creek, the hot Champion Chase favourite Defi du Seuil had the Ryanair as his preferred option. It was only after reaffirming his position as the best active British two-miler of the season that he's now heading for the Champion Chase. This season's other Grade One winning chaser, A Plus Tard, will likely head for the Ryanair. The favourite for that race is genuine championship-class two miler Min whose best twenty furlong effort came when running freely and making all on the bowling green flat Aintree to win from a field who all under-performed. Next in the betting is the hugely admirable Grade Two level Frodon followed by Riders Onthe Storm who has a lot of "Gold Cup" in his pedigree. Maybe at seven, he's a little young although that didn't stop Best Mate, Kicking King, Kauto Star, Sizing John, Al Boum Photo or his own relative War Of Attrition. Then you have Cyrname who ironically could potentially be one of the incredibly rare animals who satisfies that achingly simple criteria of a genuine twenty furlong champion - but he's unlikely to actually run in the race.

The Mares' Hurdle betting is currently headed by Benie des Dieux - who by virtue of her Auteuil and Gowran Park demolition jobs is the biggest threat to Paisley Park - and Honeysuckle - favourite for next weekend's Irish Champion Hurdle. Next in the market for this Grade One is Grade Three mare Stormy Ireland followed by Roksana, the current linchpin of If The Cap Fits' Stayers' Hurdle credentials.

I am honestly open to being persuaded that neither the Ryanair nor the Mares' Hurdle negatively impact the traditional championship races at the festival. Granted, one would need to prove that form, ratings, distances, relative merits etc are utterly superfluous gimmicks to understanding horse racing but if it is done then I would be impressed as appropriate. In fact, there would be no more vociferous champion for a two mile four hurdle at future festivals than myself.

On a similar train of thought, since the relentless degradation of the Champion Chase, Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Stayers Hurdle shows no sign of ever abating, might it be an idea to bestow the term "Championship" on the races where the best horses in such a division actually meet rather than avoid one another? Races such as the King George, Tingle Creek usually attract decent Irish horses although can't think of many hurdles which consistently attract the best from across the water. If only the big four at the festival weren't compromised by races which should either be held at other meetings (mares meeting in April) or simply not exist since the Melling Chase renders the Ryanair redundant.

 

[Double J]

Ryanair I agree with, for the simple fact Vautour ran in it over the Gold Cup. It’s all I’ve known though as I’ve only followed racing for the last few years.

Does make my blood boil though, not seeing the best vs the best because they have ‘easier’ options. Especially the Mares. Would never have seen Annie Power bolt up in the Chanpion if it wasn’t for Faugheen getting injured. Should have just elite races, cut out this middle distance shite, or move them to other cards.

Only set to get worse an all as we have a ‘Mares Chase’ to look forward to next year. I’m hoping it’s a handicap to try and stop the better Mares going for it.

Excellent post

 

[Slim]

The festival will never throw up the races it should any more. It's time to just accept that.

 

[Grey]

The introduction of a separate programme for mares, not just at Cheltenham but throughout the year, has brought about a big increase in the number and standard of mares in training. There have often been one or two good ones around, but never in the numbers we have been seeing in the last ten years or so. Without these races most of them would be off to stud instead.

 

[archie]

How many years history does a race have to have before it becomes 'traditional'?

 

[granger]

How many years history does a race have to have before it becomes 'traditional'?

Possibly needs to throw up a good clash that allows people to easily reminisce

 

[Bachelors Hall]

The festival will never throw up the races it should any more. It's time to just accept that.

Acceptance is a cornerstone of one's psychological and spiritual wellbeing and I am happy to say that this is not an issue likely to preoccupy my thoughts during any proverbial wedding night or the likes. Nevertheless, exercising one's right to critique is a valid endeavour and I happen for find it very disappointing that the sport's definitive championships are cannibalising themselves for no good reason. It is akin to hosting the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final or the Ashes and the CWC final on the same day. I do not believe any other sport employs such a profoundly nonsensical method of determining its champions. The Cheltenham Festival will not lose any of its lustre for excreting the Ryanair or Mares' Hurdle as it was already the sports zenith some fifteen years ago. While this critique will not make the slightest bit of difference in the grand scheme of things, it is better out than in.

The introduction of a separate programme for mares, not just at Cheltenham but throughout the year, has brought about a big increase in the number and standard of mares in training. There have often been one or two good ones around, but never in the numbers we have been seeing in the last ten years or so. Without these races most of them would be off to stud instead.

I think the mares programme is a fantastic initiative and am generally optimistic about the way it is developing. Having the Lady Protectress compete with the Yorkshire Rose was a bit silly but overall, it is a good idea which deserves a solid execution. However, having the best mares races compete with the best open races is not the way to go about things as once again, the best horses will be diverted from one another. Case in point, today's impressive winner, Maire Banrigh, would have any number of races to choose from once more mares races are added to the festival which is unfair to any race in which she does not compete.

What would be so wrong with turning the mares' day at the April meeting to a mares' championships? Have a chase, a hurdle, a couple of novices, a couple of handicaps and a bumper. It would attract the best performing mares from the festival, while affording them a further valuable end of season target. The best competing against the best at both the festival and on mares day.

How many years history does a race have to have before it becomes 'traditional'?

Traditional is not necessarily the issue at hand and I use the term as a collective for the four established championship races. The matter at hand is more one of utility. The Lancashire Chase isn't exactly steeped in tradition but it has definitely fulfilled a purpose which was previously served by the Edward Hanmer to diminishing degrees.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Maybe it's just me and I don't want to discourage posting but if a post goes beyond 8 lines, I can't follow it

You must have hated my weekly bulletins, granger :lol::lol::lol:

I have no issue with the length of a post; how could I when I myself am very much a sinner and not in a position to cast stones.

If a post is well written - as BH's invariably are - its length is largely irrelevant. It will be a good read irrespective of whether one agrees with it.

I haven't been following the thread at all, to be honest, but wouldn't want to discourage anyone from contributing just because they have plenty to say.

(Even managed to keep it to eight lines )