ISIS got to the point where they are now as a massive entity in the region because of what happened in early 2014 when they took large parts of Iraq, so doing a deal years earlier with Russia to defeat someone we didn't really know were there, is again....far fetched tripe on your behalf.
If we didn't know they were there, you're going to have to explain why the British designated them a terrorist group in 2001 and the United States followed in 2004 (I should clarify, they were a faction within AQ)
They were active as a fighting unit circa 2005 - 2007, then suffered some reverses and withdrew.
They were flushed however by a reorganisation that saw disenfranchised Republican Guard, and other continuity Saddam elements join them. Al Baghdadi made these people his new commanders and it is their presence in ISIS that caused the Iraqi to hand over their weapons and run in the first major advance. They were however running parts of Iraq prior to your date and something of an uneasy deal had seemingly been entered into with the Iraqi government to permit this, but it wasn't being reported in the western media.
You might equally like to dwell on the fact that the biggest supplier of foreign fighters to ISIL is Tunisia. And also ISIL's stronghold in Libya is Sirte (Gadaffis home town) where former loyalists to him have taken up arms. There is a tendancy for the displaced military that loses their influence and status to join the terror networks. People should consider this before advocating wholesale regime change in the future, for it's becoming apparent that the attempts to train and establish new fighting units from scratch has failed. In Iraq they ran away. In Libya they raped the locals of Cambridgeshire, and we learn last week that the American's have succeeded in training just "four or five" volunteers in Syria - that I'm afraid is laughable. I just wish we knew, is it four, or is ti five? How can we plan
The critical point you're missing though Marb, requires you to take two steps back and stop thinking in terms of AQI, IS, ISIS, or ISIL. The name doesn't actually matter that much, and that's why your point about about them not existing is rendered irrelevant bordering on naive.
You need to look at what they represent. When you've done that, you'll realise that they've always existed, but the reason they hadn't been able to get the traction they have today, is because a combination of secret police forces and the military in the countries where they now thrive had got on top of them. Now when you remove this controlling influence, and plunge the country into chaos and massive destabalisation in the process, can you really be surprised that they come to the top? Was that really so hard to foresee? Especially as you could easily see their presence emerging in the civil wars that preceeded the overthrows. The two pillars in a lot of these societies are the military or the mosque. What do you think will happen if you remove the military?
I think you could argue that the tribe is a third entity incidentally, and that certainly played a massive part in undermining Gadaffi's attempts to devolve power in Libya as it created discontent as democracy just reinforced corrupt tribal nepotism. Having said that, the original uprising there came on a Friday after an inflamatory inman in Benghazi implored his followers to storm the local barracks and seize the weapons to begin a revolt. Ultimately the garrison was forced into firing on them, and within half an hour Mekong Hague was incredibly denouncing Gadaffi to the world as someone who murders his own population who he, and he alone it seemed, had already decided were pro-democracy campaigners - well they certainly proved they were haven't they!