July Cup

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At the Start
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May 2, 2003
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William Hills betting:

Scenic Blast - 5/2
Paco Boy 5/1
Fleeting Spirit 6/1
Art Conoisseur 8/1
Evasive 10/1
Cannonball 10/1
Utmost Respect 12/1
Takeover Target 12/1
Marchant D'Or 20/1

If the top four all turn up it should be a cracking renewal. Scenic Blast better over 5 or 6 in Australia?
 
That market has the potential to fall to pieces. How many of those nine will turn up?

Now that Paco Boy has been outed as the second best stayer in training behind Yeats will they really drop him to six?

Are the foreign raiders likely to turn up? Will Takeover Target be fit? Is a fast ground 6f G1 what Marchant D'Or really needs these days?
 
The foreign raiders are more likely to stay now that the July Cup has become the third British leg of the Global Sprint Challenge - well Sacred Kingdom might but he's not in the entries.

Have seen it mentioned that TT is going back to Australia for the big races in the Autumn. Think Scenic Blast needs to win Japan's Sprinters Stakes later in the year to be eligible for the bonus (won a race on three continents).

As per usual most bookmakers seem to have adopted the "any British sprinter and Guineas also-ran" mentality to pricing up a big sprint. Would be surprised if Evasive or Delegator turned up. Ward likely to be encouraged by Cannonball's run on Saturday might have a pop with the July course being stiffer than Ascot.

I'd say Scenic Blast, Art Connoiseur, Cannonball, Utmost Respect of those listed above will turn up. Definitely going to be some value in the AP markets.
 
I think Hannon knows full well he has a much better chance beating the usual sprinter motley crew (Scenic Blast excluded) than taking on some of the three year olds in the mile division.

I've said for a long time that the July Cup is the perfect race for him, I'm sure I saw some 20s on Betfair a month or so back.
 
I reckon Scenic Blast and Takeover Target will aim for the July Cup. My bet would be that Takeover Target would come back to Australia for the Age Classic over 6f (the race that Overdose is being aimed for) worth $1 million down the straight 6 at Flemington on the final day of Cup week. Scenic Blast was originally being aimed for the King Stand-July Cup double, and I doubt Dan Morton would change his plans.
 
Ground is good , good to soft in places - I imagine that is why he is running. Has to have a serious chance .
 
Probable SP 11/8 Scenic Blast, 4/1 Paco Boy, 7/1 Art Connoisseur, 8/1 Fleeting Spirit, J J The Jet Plane, 10/1 Takeover Target, 14/1 Main Aim, 16/1 African Rose, 25/1 King's Apostle, 50/1 Ancien Regime, 100/1 Equiano, Prime Defender, 150/1 Intrepid Jack.
 
Paco Boy 4/1..anyone playing at that price needs the bumps feeling..its the July Cup..speed is essential..he doesn't have it

the urgency for speed is embarassing..owners have wasted their money
 
He's got speed in abundance in my opinion, the 5s this morning was cracking value. He's a top class animal and is amazing value against the Aussie.
 
like conduit was?

won't have anywhere near the speed needed for this

The horse has been "conditioned" to run 7f for a long time now..and has lately shown he does stay 8f

he isn't like the traditional failed guineas runner dropping back..he last ran 6f as a 2yo..a trip "seen" by a 2yo as at least 7f

its such a poor bet in this race I can't believe..you can't "get away" with just having a bit of speed in a July cup..he'll get eaten alive here imo.
 
I'm one of those of the opinion that a proper G1 miler has as much speed as an average G1 sprinter.

However, if a 126 miler comes up against a 126 sprinter I think I'd favour the sprinter.
 
I don't really subscribe to the miler having 6f speed tbh DO

I don't know off the top of my head but has any horse successfully dropped back to win a July Cup..not including those those that failed to stay guineas as 3yo.
 
I've long held the view this is the race for him, a stiff 6 should suit better than a mile. He's got more chance of winning this than taking MCM, Ghanaati & RVW and co on over a mile.

Not quite sure the reasoning is for picking up my fancy of Conduit on Sat, we can all trawl through posts for other forumites taking opinions on races and being proven wrong. As soon as I saw Conduit and STS come into the paddock on Saturday, I knew my bet was lost.
 
Royal Academy? Beaten a neck in the Irish Guineas by Tirol (winner at Newmarket), dropped back to win the July Cup, second to Dayjur in the Sprint Cup and then stepped back up to win the Breeders' Cup Mile. Question marks over whether he got a stiff mile, I guess, but in the kind of company he was keeping it would be harsh to call him a non-stayer.
 
Soviet Star won the July Cup and the Moulin (beating Miesque!) as a 4yo, having won the French Guineas and Sussex Stakes at 3.
 
not really thoughGareth..he were a 3yo tried in guineas then dropped back type..Paco Boy has been on the go at 7f for a while and has then been campaigned to get the mile..the drop back to 6 is purely a CV fattener..and a pretty desperate one imo

if he has that much speed why not run him in it last year?..how come he hasn't run once at 6f since being 2yo?

basically..its too late for him to suddenly be a top class sprinter..the training regime would need to be very different to the one he has had to eek the mile out of him.

does anyone really believe he has the speed to beat these?...and if so..why has he been running at 7f & 8f for ages if he has all this speed?
 
I think Scenic Blast will probably win but he's incredibly short given what he's achieved in Europe compared to Paco Boy. Not the strongest renewal and Paco Boy is such a straightforward horse, I see no problems with him dropping back in trip and the 5/1 on offer this morning was an incredible price given the opposition, I can only see the favourite troubling him.
 
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