Jumps Horse of The Year

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I think it just displays the folly of adding lbs to a horses rating across the board in handicaps. Suny Bay for instance is a good example..gained big ratings through carrying weight in handicaps..but each time stepped outside handicap company..apart from beating another handicapper Earh Summit..never looked winning.

Unless a horse can win in non handicaps i'd be very wary of taking handicap only ratings as a measure of ultimate ability

so many times horses that can carry weight are given over inflated ratings in handicaps only to be completely outclassed when asked to beat horses that have achieved similar ratings in non handicaps

to me its an obvious flaw in the ratings system.
 
EC1 said:
NC gave a stone + 1 lb to 142 horse..how on earth is that GC winning form?..it comes out at 157..i'll add a lb for winning..158..Denman beat him 7 lengths..Denman was a 165 GC winner then?
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Sunnyhillboy is rated 152 and was ten pounds well in at the National after his Kim Muir win.

EC1 said:
I think it just displays the folly of adding lbs to a horses rating across the board in handicaps. Suny Bay for instance is a good example..gained big ratings through carrying weight in handicaps..but each time stepped outside handicap company..apart from beating another handicapper Earh Summit..never looked winning.
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Apart from the time he beat Escartefigue and See More Business in the forerunner to the Betfair Chase at Haydock. I was there that day and he was no handicapper.
 
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Euronymous said:
Sunnyhillboy is rated 152 and was ten pounds well in at the National after his Kim Muir win.



Apart from the time he beat Escartefigue and See More Business in the forerunner to the Betfair Chase at Haydock. I was there that day and he was no handicapper.
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sunnyhill boy has never been a 152 horse in reality..since Nov 2010 he has been 139/142 horse..they may give him a 152 but that will slide back down to 140 mark when its clear he can't win off it

these sudden improvements then sudden deteriorations happen regularly..usually to bull up a big race.....at end of day finishing 2nd off 142 means you ain't a 152..the national is just another handicap..his mark is 142

yes Suny did win that one..a handicap..but generally in the major non handicaps couldn't beat horses to back up those ratings..he were good taht day i'll grant you
 
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EC

I have Neptune on 172 for the GN andof course he is a better figure than the Gold Cup winner this year

Sunnyhillboy was runningon tha mark but obviously is a much better figure than that, had been mascarated to win a big handciap


when you have a handicap omore than halfa milllion pounds, dont doubt the field is full of horses much better than their official mark.
 
EC1 said:
sunnyhill boy has never been a 152 horse in reality..since Nov 2010 he has been 139/142 horse..they may give him a 152 but that will slide back down to 140 mark when its clear he can't win off it
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I suspect that Sunnyhillboy is a 152 horse when they want him to be and a 139/142 horse when they don't. :ninja:
 
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SteveM said:
Like I said earlier, if Timeform can be believed, Neptune was their best ever rated Grand National winner, although Suny Bay and Crisp achieved higher ratings in defeat.

It was a big weight carrying achievement by a horse running to his extent and getting up in the final stride. This scenario is likely to produce a high rating. Whether it's the best one ever is another question.

According to Timeform's Jumps Editor Dan Barber, Neptune ran to 166, ahead of Don't Push It (162) and Royal Athlete (161) in TF lists.

Barber said Neptune Collonges' winning performance figure of 166 would have had him “bang there” in this year's Gold Cup behind Synchronised (167 at Cheltenham).

Suny Bay, achieved 176 when finding only Earth Summit too strong under top weight in 1998. Crisp, second to Red Rum in 1973, is second some 8lb behind on a rating of 168.

However, despite this perhaps Denman shouldn't be voted jumps horse of the year as he didn't appear. Perhaps a lifetime award for reflected glory at this year's Oscars might be more appropriate.

Perhaps Neptune should be horse of the year? ;)
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How can a handicapper say that a rating achieved over 4m4f can in anyway translate to a rating over 3m2f? Completely different race, pace, fences, competition and course. NC would have finished 15-20 lengths off the pace in the GC.
 
sunybay said:
EC

I have Neptune on 172 for the GN andof course he is a better figure than the Gold Cup winner this year

Sunnyhillboy was runningon tha mark but obviously is a much better figure than that, had been mascarated to win a big handciap


when you have a handicap omore than halfa milllion pounds, dont doubt the field is full of horses much better than their official mark.
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with most big handicaps i'd agree..but i don't really see the GN as a race where being well in is a major help..adapting to the idiosyncracies of the race is more important.

i don't think Sunnyhill was well in..and i can't really have a GN winner better than a GC winner even in this very average year tbh. If NC is better than a GC winner what was he doing here?..and why when in his prime did he never win a GC?
 
I don't think that saying it was a better performance means that he would have won the Gold Cup. As people have said, the conditions of the race are completely different.

Frankel put in the best performances on the flat last year but that doesn't automatically mean he would have won the Arc. Neptune Collonges put in a better performance to win the National than Synchronised did to win the Gold Cup but that doesn't mean that he would have won the Gold Cup.

I don't understand how Sunnyhillboy wasn't well in? Was his authoritative and convincing success in the competitive Kim Muir no better than what he had previously achieved? If so is every horse that wins a handicap and gets raised 'badly in' next time they run?
 
Aragorn said:
How can a handicapper say that a rating achieved over 4m4f can in anyway translate to a rating over 3m2f? Completely different race, pace, fences, competition and course. NC would have finished 15-20 lengths off the pace in the GC.
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Take it up with Timeform. But NC has previously run better in the Gold Cup than you give him credit.
 
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Flemenstar for me..the only horse I am looking forward to!!

Trained by a star and trained properly
 
Ironic that after such a good season for Henderson, Nicholls has cleaned up at the final awards.
 
On balance, I think he would. However, it seems strange to say, but I think Nicholls' could be slightly 'under the radar' next season. All the hype and interest will be firmly focussed on Seven Barrows and probably rightly so.
 
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