Juvenile Hurdlers 2015/2016

Nice EC1. On a serious note, JP has the ammo to have about 6 or 7 winners today depending on how things go. Scary.
 
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EC1 said:
on days like this..i'm a very happy man


Spring Hurdle in Feb will be some race..looking back to when Our Conor won that race..his speed figure in that race was only 2 lengths better than what Ivan threw up. That figure for OC made him near on unbeatable in a Triumph hurdle..so Ivan is probably one of the best juveniles of recent years based on that last run
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Great stuff, EC1!

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Seriously impressed by Ivan today - he may not have won by 20 lengths but he is a cracking looking horse in the mould of a quality top class hurdler.
 
Joseph with a team of 60-70 predominantly jumpers could soon be a force to be reckoned with in NH racing.
 
Ardross said:
Shockingly bad performances by the Nicholls quintet.
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it will seem like im picking on you now but you honestly think that all five of them ran badly?

to me seems straightforward; last year the english juvenile form was far superior...this time around it would appear that first 4 places being filled by irish horses would suggest decent form there

granted...you'd have expected more from zubayr relative to the others but you'd think the likes of clan des obeaux and tommie silver etc may well have run their races

it doesnt make for good punting if you enter a race with an opinion in your head and shape the result and subsequent arguments to suit that theory - do you happen to work in the legal profession? i think this is possibly what is happening with some of the posts that are winding me up; don't mean to be aggressive in pointing it out but its more than a bit repetitive. granted the likes of gers girl coming across does give some reference point but generally find triumph a hard race because its just hard to measure collateral form between english and irish. at least other novice hurdle divisions are a lot clearer now with mullins raids as a refernece point
 
jinnyj said:
Seriously impressed by Ivan today - he may not have won by 20 lengths but he is a cracking looking horse in the mould of a quality top class hurdler.
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No, but he was giving a good filly weight and the pair were well clear. I was seriously impressed too. ORs pointed to this being a strong race beforehand so I'll be looking forward to the BHA handicapper's blog to see if they plan to downgrade the UK horses as they were well beaten.
 
A look at the Fred Winter told you everything you needed to know. Two Irish horses coming to win the race before coming down.


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Jambo said:
it will seem like im picking on you now but you honestly think that all five of them ran badly?

to me seems straightforward; last year the english juvenile form was far superior...this time around it would appear that first 4 places being filled by irish horses would suggest decent form there

granted...you'd have expected more from zubayr relative to the others but you'd think the likes of clan des obeaux and tommie silver etc may well have run their races

it doesnt make for good punting if you enter a race with an opinion in your head and shape the result and subsequent arguments to suit that theory - do you happen to work in the legal profession? i think this is possibly what is happening with some of the posts that are winding me up; don't mean to be aggressive in pointing it out but its more than a bit repetitive. granted the likes of gers girl coming across does give some reference point but generally find triumph a hard race because its just hard to measure collateral form between english and irish. at least other novice hurdle divisions are a lot clearer now with mullins raids as a refernece point
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What are you blithering on about - Nicholls does not tend to think his geese are swans but has been bullish about his 4 year olds and not one was in the first five . Hence , the performances were clearly much worse than he expected .
 
Ardross said:
What are you blithering on about - Nicholls does not tend to think his geese are swans but has been bullish about his 4 year olds and not one was in the first five . Hence , the performances were clearly much worse than he expected .
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Yet his two dark horses fought out the Fred Winter (with the two Irish plots falling). I'm more inclined to think the first two in the Triumph are very, very good but I'll crunch some numbers later.

I was more disappointed in the form of King's team than Nicholls's, throughout the week. We'll see if he can shed any light on it on Wednesday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yet his two dark horses fought out the Fred Winter (with the two Irish plots falling). I'm more inclined to think the first two in the Triumph are very, very good but I'll crunch some numbers later.

I was more disappointed in the form of King's team than Nicholls's, throughout the week. We'll see if he can shed any light on it on Wednesday.
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I do not disagree with your assessment of the front two - but I cannot imagine he did not expect them all to be unplaced and it must count as very disappointing.

I agree about the King horses and it may be to Yanworth's credit that despite the mistake and a mediocre ride he was able to finish so close to Yorkhill in the circumstances .
 
Ardross said:
Shockingly bad performances by the Nicholls quintet.
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I've done some interim calcs.

I reckon Clan Des Obeaux, Tommy Silver and Frodon have all run pretty much to their mark, better in the case of TS, which had been anticipated.

The other two have disappointed but you always get several that disappoint in the race, more likely with jockeys going through the motions when their chances have gone.

I think the front two are even smarter than I first thought. Not too far behind Our Conor, which is very pleasing ahead of next season.
 
Nicholls has history of big improvers from the two juvenile races. Old Guard being the most recent example. I think this year is unusual that he has so many of them that he's really struggled with his pecking order.
 
EC1 said:
that first win put him up with Our Conor on my calcs..an incredible set of figures overall and late sectional at Leopardstown
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Cheers, EC1. Will be interested in your take on the Triumph. The winner looked good but I thought the filly in second did too, considering she was ridden slightly more prominently than the winner.
 
was an advantage to be in front in the triumph..softish pace without being a jog and sprint

the race to analyse is the leopardstown run to assess Ivan..he's a bit of a monster on that run..the triumph is not much interest to me tbh
 
Spot on. Ruby was superb for most of the week, but what he was doing holding Footpad so far off that pace is beyond me. I reckon they thought they had the best two horses in the race and came unstuck.

Footpad will romp up either at Aintree of Punchestown. Or alternatively they're already looking to get him an attractive mark for next season.
 
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i think they thought Footpad could take IG and ignored the pace..not like Ruby at all..was probably his worst ride of the week..Footpad put a big figure in at Leopardstown but that was different ground..they may thought IG was at his best last time ...but he wasn't imo..so was there for the taking again

both are good ones..but IG has biggest potential by some way as shown on FTO effort..i haven't seen many races like that first effort by a Juvenile..immense..the triumph doesn't show IG's potential like that first run does..its like the triumph is an aside..immense animal is IG
 
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Agreed. I also pegged him as a serious horse after his first run EC. He and Altior were the youngsters I spotted early. The trouble is I then took the view that he didn't want to put it all in on his second run. Lot's of juveniles that show seriously good form and then drop significantly on their second, never do it on the racecourse again. I thought he may have been one to swerve and was horribly wrong!
 
Rather like the bumpers, I suspect that some very decent juveniles were held up in their preparation by the weather and will now not appear until next season. There was talk that O'Brien had one they liked better than IG and I know that Willie has several that he's giving more time.
 
I think it very unlikely they thought that Footpad could take IG . I know one has to take what jockeys say with a pinch of salt but Ruby was interviewed on Cheltenham radio on the morning of the race and said he thought they would all struggle to cope with IG's speed on that ground and he said the same of Don Cossack !
 
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