Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

Bachelors Hall said:
Following on from the conversation with Maruco on the previous page, I felt compelled to respond by not only putting research into the dosage of juvenile hurdlers on my to-do list, but to also etch it off the to-do list one horse at a time. I would love to say that the time invested was time well spent on a wild and invigorating adventure through the fascinating intricacies of data analysis. The reality, however, was endless hours of repetitive data entry interrupted by brief spells of entering data on pedigreequery. Not to mention the guilt induced insomnia caused by my adding AQPS horses on a thoroughbred database. May Arkle have mercy on my soul.
Click to expand...

It feels like I owe you an apology BH, but the result is an incredibly good piece of work, so thankyou. It confirms my thoughts that dosage is definitely a factor to bring in to play with juveniles, but it needs to be applied alongside other criteria.

Now your going to hate me for saying this, but what happens when you apply dosage to sires and damsires? Can you begin to eliminate certain sires and breeding lines within the data bands. What i mean by that is, are there sires that fit the dosage profiles in the higher bands but just don't sire winners of that class and above.

If you began to hate me for setting you off on the arduous task you've just undertaken, I've also had another thought that is kind of the reverse of what you're working on at the moment. Often juveniles are accused of 'not training on'. I'm wondering if there is a sweet spot within the bands for juveniles improving/declining beyond their juvenile season, and again is there other criteria that can then be used to filter out further, thus statistically eliminating some data groups on probability.

In both cases I suspect there will be both prominent sires and dam sires, and also some others that have much fewer runners that may fly under the radar. There will almost certainly be some that can be omitted too.

I wouldn't blame you whatsoever for saying enough is enough, but if you have the appetite I suspect there may be something in my ramblings. As i think I've said previously I've done some of this work in the past, specifically in relation to marathon chases. Tiger Roll for example was not a total surprise. Tiger Roll was a decent juvenile, and then struggled for a couple of season in handicaps because of his mark. He didn't come in to his own until he went over fences as a 7 year old, and even then when he was stepped up in trip. Most juveniles are written off by then as not good enough by the top trainers when they reach seven. They've had 3 seasons over hurdles and appear to be on the downgrade. Tiger Roll won the NH Chase at 7 at his first go at 4 miles. Others by that stage usually end up slogging around gaff tracks for small stables who are desperate to get their previous 150 marks down to 110. I have a strong belief that trainers usually just think of juveniles as hurdlers who will perform up to 3 miles, but I've felt for some time that the classier stamina laden juveniles carefully campaigned and then switched to fences can make excellent staying chasers. I'm waffling on a bit now and not really getting what's in my head down on here so I'll come back to it and add more.
 
Last edited:
Maruco said:
but I've felt for some time that the classier stamina laden juveniles carefully campaigned and then switched to fences can make excellent staying chasers. I'm waffling on a bit now and not really getting what's in my head down on here so I'll come back to it and add more.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure the brother holds a similar opinion.
 
Maruco said:
It feels like I owe you an apology BH, but the result is an incredibly good piece of work, so thankyou.
Click to expand...
My lamentations were (mostly) for comedic effect so an apology is not necessary. As a consequence of this research I have gone from having a faint conception of dosages to knowing a thing or two about the subject and my spreadsheet skills have also seen improvement. Indeed if there is to be gratitude then it should also extend in your direction. The study of juvenile hurdlers is a labour of love and the development of skills and a broader understanding of any subject is very much its own reward. Although if you must feel apologetic then I am sure we can negotiate a retainer of sorts. Gratitude also for Danny as it is always nice when an amusing thought is met with appreciation rather than concern...

Maruco said:
What happens when you apply dosage to sires and damsires?
Click to expand...

I'm glad you asked...

Given that I already have some data lying around for sires and damsires, looking into the dosage element would be a natural progression. Particularly if, as mentioned in this thread's opening post, it might reveal that certain stallions have an aptitude for this rather niche discipline.

Using those who have sired ten or more juvenile hurdlers since the 2011/12 season, I will first look at the average DIs grouped by the sire's winner to runner strike rate percentage.

________ Total Mean Median
64%-30% 35 1.33 1.11
29%-20% 43 1.59 1.53
19%-10% 42 2.02 1.76
09%-00% 31 1.86 1.61

As with the juveniles themselves, there is also a very discernible pattern with their sires. In broad terms, the lower the DI, the higher the winner to runner strike rate although this takes a stumble among those with poor strike rates. An examination of this anomaly reveals that the average DI is dragged down by Beneficial, Kayf Tara, Milan, Oscar, Presenting and Scorpion. It would be unfair to suggest that these sires can not produce juvenile hurdlers as they will gave been presented with little to no suitable opportunities. The mares serviced by these stallions will not be given to precocity and the offspring who do run during their juvenile season will almost always be store horses out for experience. As such, when these stallions are removed from the figures, the average DIs for the band read as 2.15 and 1.95 mean and median respectively which leaves a firmly consistent set of figures.

Interestingly, another stallion who weighs down the 9%-0% average is Kalanisi (1.43) who is without a winner from twelve foals during this time period. However, that he could count the likes of Alaivan, Barizan, Simarian, European Dream and, of course, Triumph Hurdle winning Katchit among his first crops supports the notion that the manner in which produce is bred and prepared for racing will impact its sires success rates.

The second table looks at the percentage of offspring to have achieved RPRs exceeding 107. The National Hunt stallions have been removed from this data in advance and while there is not a pronounced difference towards the lower bands, the general pattern remains to be seen.

________ Total Mean Median
64%-30% 42 1.36 1.16
29%-20% 47 1.62 1.53
19%-10% 36 2.14 2.01
09%-00% 21 2.04 2.00
This next chart may be of particular interest to those attempting to find the more unheralded National Hunt sires as it looks at the percentage of a stallion's progeny that improves for switching code. The figure is reached by subtracting the lower of the horse's official flat rating or highest flat RPR from the highest achieved jumps RPR and subtracting a further thirty-five pounds. Those with positive figures are assumed to have improved and those with negative figures are not. For the sake of integrity, only horses who have raced more than twice over hurdles AND have achieved an official rating are considered so as to reduce the skewing of the figures by lightly raced sorts.

________ Total Mean Median
79%-52% 23 1.45 1.48
50%-41% 27 1.72 1.58
40%-00% 33 1.94 1.48

These results show that sires whose progeny are more likely than not to improve for the switch of codes will have a lower DI than those who do not. However, there is a familiar cautionary tale here in that a slight shifting of parameters can quite dramatically alter a statistical narrative.

________ Total Mean Median
79%-52% 23 1.45 1.48
50%-40% 35 1.90 1.72
39%-00% 25 1.75 1.33

Incidentally, the top ten stallions of horses who improve for switching codes are;-

79 Pour Moi (0.43)
78 Authorized (0.62)
67 Montjeu (0.89)
65 Fast Company (2.06)
64 Sinndar (1.56)
64 Aussie Rules (1.73)
62 Casamento (1.77)
61 Sixties Icon (0.65)
60 Canford Cliffs (0.82)
59 Holy Roman Emperor (2.48)

Putting stallions in bands of their DIs and evalusting their strike rates for both winners/runners and plus 108 performers produces highly consistent results;-

Winners from runners
________ Total Mean % Median %
0.00-0.95 34 27.66 26.54
1.04-1.48 36 23.53 21.68
1.53-2.00 30 20.56 20.71
2.06-2.79 25 18.10 16.67
3.00-5.00 20 17.13 16.67

108+
________ Total Mean % Median %
0.00-0.95 34 32.24 30.95
1.04-1.48 36 26.22 22.22
1.53-2.00 30 23.45 22.22
2.06-2.79 25 18.60 17.65
3.00-5.00 20 16.88 16.67

However, these figures are not quite so well replicated when accounting for the transition from flat to jumps;-

________ Total Mean % Median %
0.00-0.95 18 46.48 49.33
1.04-1.48 24 41.16 41.42
1.53-2.00 17 45.48 47.06
2.06-2.79 11 46.54 47.37
3.00-5.00 13 38.40 40.00

When grouping damsires by bands of strike rates, it appears that the impact of their influence diminishes quite considerably as while there is still a vague trend overall, it lacks the distinction that occurs in the above figures;-

Damsire winners/runners%
________ Total Mean Median
64%-30% 27 1.79 1.29
29%-20% 43 2.07 1.95
19%-10% 34 1.92 1.72
09%-00% 8 1.89 1.62

As with the sires, there are a couple of damsires weighing down the lower figures in the shapes of Presenting and Supreme Leader. However, while their removal (which leaves figures of 2.34 and 2.18) helps to mitigate against the inconsistencies of the winners/runners table, it acts only as scant ballast against the comparative chaos that is the plus 108 table;-

________ Total Mean Median
64%-30% 35 1.94 1.50
29%-20% 35 1.83 1.79
19%-10% 33 2.14 1.67
09%-00% 7 1.99 1.71
This chaos explodes into pure anarchy when it comes to improvement figures;-

________ Total Mean Median
65%-50% 20 2.19 2.06
47%-40% 21 1.68 1.40
39%-19% 21 1.86 1.56

While one might be tempted to hypothesise on why these figures occur as they do, whether there is a tangible relationship to be extrapolated or if the figures are chaotic because the perameters are largely redundant, any theory at this stage might welll be pure speculation.

Maruco said:
Can you begin to eliminate certain sires and breeding lines within the data bands. What i mean by that is, are there sires that fit the dosage profiles in the higher bands but just don't sire winners of that class and above.
Click to expand...

With the data available, it is certainly possible to recognise sires who underperform despite having a favourable dosage index. While they won't be having any more juvenile hurdlers, Rip Van Winkle (0.69) and Marju (0.83) both had poor records in the field with neither having a double figure strike rate by any of the aforementioned metrics. Nevertheless, this is not to say that they could not sire jumpers, rather their more successful progeny tended to produce their best efforts at later stages. Marju's top jumpers had their most fruitful campaigns at the ages of 5-9 (Simenon), 7 (Aspirant Dancer), 7-8 (Bobs Pride) 7-10 (Almaydan and Oodachee). An underperforming sire who may have juveniles this season is Havana Gold (0.74) who currently has just one winner from eleven runners achieving an RPR of just 100 in the process (although he currently has an improvement rate of 33%). Conversely, despite its higer dosage indexes, the Danehill Dancer (2.09) line mentioned in the previous post boasts several stallions with above average figures including Jeremy (1.82), Mastercraftsman (1.82), Fast Company (2.06), Indesatchel (2.50) and Choisir (2.60). The fact that Kingston Hill could join the ranks this season with a DI of just 0.90 could make him a very interesting prospect.

Maruco said:
If you began to hate me for setting you off on the arduous task you've just undertaken, I've also had another thought that is kind of the reverse of what you're working on at the moment. Often juveniles are accused of 'not training on'. I'm wondering if there is a sweet spot within the bands for juveniles improving/declining beyond their juvenile season, and again is there other criteria that can then be used to filter out further, thus statistically eliminating some data groups on probability.
Click to expand...
Just as a Professor of the Middle Ages might balk at the idea of touching anything post-Reformation, I must stress that anything a four-year-old does after Punchestown would not be in my field of research. Nevertheless, because I found myself rather intrigued by the idea, I did some work relevant to your idea - possibly without fully grasping your intentions.

Firstly, I used the leading juveniles with the highest and lowest dosages of the seasons between 2011/12 and 2016/17 - the latter season chosen to allow the form to mature. The table shows Name/DI/Sire/Sire's DI/Highest RPR/Season/Three highest RPRs achieved after the juvenile season and the distances at which they were achieved/Average distances of top performances/Difference between top juvenile RPR and subsequent RPR - A larger the figure may be demonstrative of "training on".

1r07v1r.png


I am not sure that the forum's format is conducive to presenting the table in this post but hopefully the link to the image will still be there. The sample size is probably too small but two ideas that can be taken from these figures are that horses with higher DIs seem to be better adept at training on and that while those with higher DIs tend to stick at the minimum trip, those with the lowest largely only step up a half mile in trip. Although it is worth noting that the two who fared best enjoyed success at three miles and beyond and it could well be that the placing of these horses played a greater role than genetics. It goes without saying that considerably more research would be necessary before drawing any firm conclusions. Nevertheless, I applied this format in a similar fashion to the Triumph Hurdle winners with the highest and lowest DIs in the RPR era. There are some horses whose best RPRs were equally attained over a range of distances. In these instances, I used an average figure whenever applicible.

JiDxegU.png


Here, in contrast to the previous table, those with the lower DIs enjoy far greater success after the triumph than their more speedily bred counterparts. However, of the stoutly bred winners, only Commanche Court, Paddy's Return and Tiger Roll would establish themselves as bona fide stayers and while the likes of Mysilv and Celestial Halo ran close to or at their bests over three miles, they were equally capable at two miles. Zarkandar, the most successful of the speedier sorts would also perform well over both two and three miles which may suggest that for many high quality horses, the difference between two and three miles can be much of a muchness.

And finally, there were forty horses who posted RPRs of 150+ over jumps last season whose careers began in the juvenile division. (This will not include those who exclusively raced at three or four in France). The figures below are RPR/Distance RPR achieved/DI/Sire's DI/Age/Horse.

155 24.0 1.00 1.10 08 Apple's Jade
150 16.5 0.71 1.22 06 Ballywood
156 20.0 0.85 0.90 08 Ben Dundee
174 25.5 1.12 1.10 09 Bristol De Mai
158 17.8 0.85 0.76 07 Call Me Lord
178 24.0 1.22 0.93 08 Clan Des Obeaux
156 16.5 0.90 1.78 05 Coeur Sublime
159 15.8 2.20 1.29 06 Cornerstone Lad
171 15.5 1.00 1.29 07 Defi Du Seuil
163 17.0 1.00 1.22 08 Diego Du Charmil
166 15.5 1.40 0.93 07 Dolos
152 20.5 0.74 1.78 07 Ex Patriot
165 16.0 1.00 0.93 05 Fakir D'oudairies
165 26.0 0.86 0.94 08 Footpad
167 20.5 1.67 1.00 08 Frodon
153 15.5 0.71 0.71 05 Fusil Raffles
155 15.5 0.71 1.00 06 Grand Sancy
154 16.5 0.33 1.00 06 Gumball
153 22.0 0.71 0.90 11 Mala Beach
155 17.0 0.50 0.53 09 Marracudja
150 22.5 2.08 2.16 07 Mengli Khan
156 15.5 1.00 1.00 06 Monsieur Lecoq
153 15.8 1.00 1.29 06 Nube Negra
157 15.5 0.77 1.04 05 Pentland Hills
150 16.5 2.00 1.48 05 Pic D'Orhy
157 16.0 1.40 1.40 05 Quel Destin
151 21.0 0.67 0.71 08 Romain De Senam
161 16.5 0.40 0.58 05 Saldier
150 20.0 1.07 1.77 08 San Benedeto
168 16.5 1.40 1.67 08 Sceau Royal
166 16.5 1.86 1.67 07 Sharjah
157 16.2 1.67 4.00 07 Silver Streak
154 20.5 2.56 1.48 07 Siruh Du Lac
154 19.5 2.08 3.67 05 Song For Someone
150 18.3 1.00 1.04 06 Stormy Ireland
155 30.0 0.58 0.62 10 Tiger Roll
159 20.3 0.88 1.11 09 Top Notch
155 25.0 1.13 1.24 07 Tout Est Permis
156 20.0 1.00 1.29 08 Voix Du Reve
154 20.5 3.00 1.82 08 Who Dares Wins


Top 40 ex-juveniles 2019/20 MEAN/MEDIAN
________Total Age RPR ____DI SDI Dist Age RPR DI SDI Dist

_____ALL 40 7.03 157.95 1.18 1.31 19.0 7.0 156 1.00 1.11 17.40
Distance
15.5-17.8 21 6.24 158.57 1.09 1.28 16.2 6.0 157 1.00 1.22 16.20
18.3-21.0 11 7.45 154.82 1.41 1.51 20.1 8.0 154 1.00 1.29 20.30
22.0-30.0 08 8.50 160.63 1.09 1.12 24.9 8.0 155 1.06 1.02 24.50
DI
0.33-0.90 16 7.19 155.63 0.70 0.97 19.2 7.0 155 0.71 0.92 17.40
1.00-1.29 12 7.17 160.50 1.05 1.18 19.7 7.5 156 1.00 1.16 19.15
1.40-3.00 12 6.67 158.50 1.94 1.88 18.0 7.0 157 1.93 1.58 16.50

While it is only a sample size of forty, there is really nothing to glean from these figures other than the fact that no current high-class graduate-juvenile has a dosage index exceeding 3.00
 
In turn BH I have to show a bit of gratitude to Maruco. Someone once told me, we only get the right answers when we start asking the right questions, and Maruco is certainly having a good crack at finding the right ones and most definitely articulating them better than I could myself.

With regards top class horses finding the 2 mile and the 3 mile trips much of a muchness I'd have to say you may find that's only really applicable to hurdling. I'd have said that it was something to do with the fact that no-one sets out to train a staying hurdler and that it ends up being the weakest division at Championship level. As such The grade one staying hurdles don't usually ( there are exceptions ) get run at a true gallop or grade 1 pace. Hence you have years where the speedier/classier types who can settle tend to come to the fore. A horse getting a trip was explained to me as, all horses get a trip, a cart horse stays 4 miles he just does so in his own time. Stamina only comes into play really when a particular trip is run at pace. Its sometimes why you'd see those horses that have proven stamina over further do well in the Championship races at Cheltenham people tend to think its the hill, which fair enough it does play a huge part in it but its also the break neck pace races are run at rather than the jog and sprint type races we see throughout much of the winter.

Once again a cracking thread and I always like to read something that reminds me how little I know.
 
I don’t have enough time this morning to give a worthy response. Before I do, and for now, I just want to say thanks BH. Col sums up your efforts with one word perfectly above. You are putting together a really impressive piece of work.

I’ll be back with some more thoughts and questions, and probably as a consequence I’ll take up many more hours of your life! :lol:
 
Last edited:
Colin Phillips said:
Epic.
Click to expand...

Nice one Colin. I am glad you appreciated it.

Danny said:
In turn BH I have to show a bit of gratitude to Maruco. Someone once told me, we only get the right answers when we start asking the right questions, and Maruco is certainly having a good crack at finding the right ones.
Click to expand...

Very true which is why any contribution to this thread is a net positive for all concerned.

Danny said:
With regards top class horses finding the 2 mile and the 3 mile trips much of a muchness I'd have to say you may find that's only really applicable to hurdling. I'd have said that it was something to do with the fact that no-one sets out to train a staying hurdler and that it ends up being the weakest division at Championship level. As such The grade one staying hurdles don't usually ( there are exceptions ) get run at a true gallop or grade 1 pace. Hence you have years where the speedier/classier types who can settle tend to come to the fore. A horse getting a trip was explained to me as, all horses get a trip, a cart horse stays 4 miles he just does so in his own time. Stamina only comes into play really when a particular trip is run at pace. Its sometimes why you'd see those horses that have proven stamina over further do well in the Championship races at Cheltenham people tend to think its the hill, which fair enough it does play a huge part in it but its also the break neck pace races are run at rather than the jog and sprint type races we see throughout much of the winter.
Click to expand...

Myself and Maruco had something of a very cordial clash conducted in the best of faith on this matter in a thread last year. A thread that could have been resurrected during Cheltenham when the mares' hurdle spoiled both the Champion and Stayers Hurdlers, the Ryanair Chase was won by - in the words of Bryony Frost - Champion Chasers, and the Champion Chase itself was won by anything but. I fear for derailing this particular thread as there is already a more appropriate one buried beneath a few pages but my general premise is that while there can be a difference between two and three miles, the half mile point in between is not a specialist distance as the best two or three milers will invariably beat any so called twenty furlong horse at the trip. I think you are correct that the schism between two and three miles may be less pronounced over hurdles but would maintain that there is little difference between either trip and twenty furlongs over fences. I would only want to pursue this train of thought in this thread if it relates to juvenile hurdling but am sure I will answer the call to war on the two and a half mile hill as eagerly as any of the prophet's mares.

Danny said:
Once again a cracking thread and I always like to read something that reminds me how little I know.
Click to expand...

I love that line "I like to keep abreast of my ignorance" from Arthur Miller's 'All My Sons' and try to be mindful of practising same where possible. Particularly if I feel my ego inflating beyond its capacity! But it is absolutely better to find out what you do not know than to settle with what you do and I am always appreciative of the kind words from a curious person such as yourself.[/QUOTE]

Maruco said:
I don’t have enough time this morning to give a worthy response. Before I do, and for now, I just want to say thanks BH. Col sums up your efforts with one word perfectly above. You are putting together a really impressive piece of work.

I’ll be back with some more thoughts and questions, and probably as a consequence I’ll take up many more hours of your life! :lol:
Click to expand...

This is payback for that twenty furlong's isn't a legitimate championship distance thread isn't it?

In seriousness though, thanks for your thoughts on this thread and I look forward to seeing some more. Though I may have to breath some fresh air and/or talk to an actual, real life non-horsey person again at some point before getting stuck back into the research!
 
The fourth juvenile hurdle takes place at Market Rasen on Monday and it will be the first without Hiconic which will give some other horse a chance to win a rice. Her absence further compounds the notion that at first glance, this is a tricky race to evaluate in advance. While all of the newcomers' profiles have features which could make them interesting and/or competitive, they also have aspects which demand discretion and reticence. As such, unless there is a revelatory performance of sorts, the form of this race might warrant caution insofar as the future is concerned. The average winning DI from the past fifty-three Market Rasen juvenile hurdles is 1.00 median and 1.40 mean - 1.27 when outliers are removed. On these figures alone, this would make it a sterner test than Newton Abbot and somewhere between Bangor and Stratford with the mean figure bringing it closer to the former and the median the latter. Some very good juveniles have competed at Market Rasen in recent years before going on to bigger and brighter things such as Tiger Roll, Fox Norton, Cliffs Of Dover and Nube Negra - not to mention Triumph winners Countrywide Flame and Katchit. However, while this race probably wont be adding to that list, we can still enjoy a nice headache while attempting to contextualise the event.

Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien (47) 34
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
On the plus side, Billy The Quid has a nice low dosage index, his damsire has two winners from three juveniles (both as a sire and a damsire) and along with being out of a half sister to winning hurdler, shares a maternal line with relatives such as El Dancer (5/2), Captain Cee Bee (5/3), Esmondo (5/4) and Triumph winner Pentland Hills (6/4). Less positive elements are that sire Requinto is zero from four juveniles and while his trainer is in grand form at the moment, his record with juveniles (one winner from twelve and a 29% improvement rate) is less inspiring. However, the most damaging facet of Billy The Squid's profile is his flat form which saw him beaten seventy-three lengths in three runs for George Scott.

Dorchester Dom chg N Twiston-Davies 6-0-0 (55) 69
Starspangledbanner (Alhaarth){9-e}(2.00) 3/2 Mutakarrim 1st Sharp Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham 2002
Dorchester Dom began his flat career as early as anybody with a creditable fourth in the Brocklesby Stakes last March for David Evans. Despite this flash of precocity, the fact he has never ran beyond seven furlongs and his being out of the classy sprinter Starspangledbanner, stamina is not a major concern with horse. Although Starspangledbanner has yet to sire a jumps winner and his progeny are best at shorter trips, he is still from the Danehill Dancer line which thrives in this sphere and Dorchester Dom's dam is from the family of top stayers Big Orange and Red Cadeaux as well as good juvenile sire Haafhd. Furthermore, Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with juveniles although only two of his recent five winners came from the flat and those of a similar flat standard to Dorchester Dom have failed even to collect prize money. Gelded after running in the Brocklesby, Dorchester Dom has shown nothing that matches his debut outing and the official rating of 55 would be the ceiling of his subsequent performances.

Dragon Man bg M Young 3-0-0 (47) 45
Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
Max Young's training career began on Monday with Dragon Man finishing 118 lengths behind Hiconic at Stratford. While his jumping was fine over the first two obstacles, a mistake at the third seemed to affect his confidence thereafter. Nevertheless, even with the anticipated improvement from his debut hurdling effort, he would still have a long way to go before he would be of interest in this kind of field.

Dutch Admiral chg D Bridgwater 4-0-1 (83) 80
Dutch Art (Affirmed){9-e}(1.91) American family, 6/7 Danny Whizzbang
Dutch Admiral's fourth placed finish in a Dundalk listed race back in late February stands head and shoulders above any other piece of flat form in this field. With his starting price of 66/1 there is a compulsion to pick holes in the form and while King Of Athens, who was a short head behind, most likely underperformed, the subsequent efforts of third placed Orchid Gardens in decent handicaps can rate his form in the low eighties. The maiden where he was runner up last time out has not worked out quite as well but the way he ran to the line would indicate that he can meet the stamina demands of Monday's race. He has since left the yard of Cormac Farrell to join David Bridgwater whose record in juveniles with flat recruits is a fine three winners from seven runners. However, winning done by the yard in these events is typically done so with horses who already have good flat ratings and is not usually followed by improvement. Dutch Admiral will also be David Bridgwater's first runner from the yard since March and while he is more than capable of getting winners in the summer, yard form can only be taken on trust. An even greater concern is his sire's record in juvenile hurdles. Only one of his thirteen juveniles - in thirty-nine attempts - have tasted success in the sphere and that came in March 2013 when Nicky Henderson's Little Dutch Girl won an atrocious fillies' race at Taunton at odds of 1/7f. It is not as though Dutch Art's hurdlers wanted for flat form as twenty-five of those losing attempts were carried out by horses who had achieved flat RPRs or 70 or above. Jumping stock in Dutch Admirals immediate pedigree is non-existent and that Affirmed was also the damsire of the top-class Theatreworld (Sadler's Wells) offers a glimmer of light which is incapable of piercing through the gloom. It may well be that his flat form, sufficient stamina and good trainer can carry him over the line in this company but he would still be breaking the paternal mould in the process.

Mick bg M Hammond 6-0-1 (59) 63
Makfi (Pivotal){6-d}(1.40) 2/1 Sayar 1st Joe Mac Novice Hurdle (G3), Tipperary 2017
Mick's form case essentially revolves around his third place finish at Doncaster in a 1m6½f handicap on his penultimate outing. Tracking the leaders throughout in a stop start affair, he found himself outpaced halfway up the straight but was able to rally again and plug on on for a 4¼ length third without ever looking like threatening the leader. His previous best was followed by a below par effort and this inconsistency repeated itself last time at Beverley over two miles where he finished tailed off after leading for the first three quarters of the race. He did have Soldier On Parade behind him at Doncaster but while he comes ahead at the weights by a slim fraction, that advantage will be eliminated by the aforementioned's hurdling experience. Notwithstanding, trainer Micky Hammond has a respectable record with his juvenile hurdlers boasting a 23% winners to runners strike rate with over a third of those trained on the flat at the yard winning in the sphere. However, the yard has uncharacteristically gone over three weeks without sending out a winner. There are plenty of good and successful hurdlers found on the damline (3/1 Senanjar, 3/2 Serabad, 2/1 Sendiym, 6/4 Sacundai, 6/2 Monksfield) and Pivotal mares are capable of producing winning juveniles. However, while not as daunting as Dutch Art's record, Makfi's winner to runner rate still stands at one from eleven despite being represented by decent flat sorts although his improvement rate of 38% between codes is still fair if below average. While Mick might be able to do alright in this discipline, he would have to be putting his best foot forward and there are too many holes in his profile to confidently expect a strong outing on his first attempt.

Party Potential bg A King 7-0-0 (49) 56
Congrats (Half Ours){8-f}(4.45) US Family - 8/8 Fredo 8/10 Indietir 8/5 Nijinsky
As covered in an exercise of explaining the blooming obvious in the preview for Monday's race, Alan King is a force to be reckoned with in the division. However, not every Alan King horse is a surefire winner and as demonstrated at Stratford by his charge Kings Creek, while it is reasonably fair to expect that his horses can jump and go about their business, they still need to be fast enough to win. What is more, the yard's representative on Monday had a stronger profile than Party Potential by dint of stronger and more consistent form (official ratings of 62 and 49), a better attitude (Kings Creek was comparatively straightforward while Party Potential is averse to travelling or running in a straight line despite donning a range of headwear), and a more substantial pedigree. King Creeks pedigree was uninspiring but he still had a lower dosage index, his granddam's brother was a winning chaser, his damsire sired winning juveniles and his sire at least had runners over jumps. Lowly markers still unmet by Party Potential's pedigree. While any Alan King juvenile has to be afforded consideration, it is difficult to make a tangible case for this one outperforming the one comfortably beaten on Monday.

Prince Percy bg G Moore 6-0-1 (61) 65
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u} 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Listed Hurdle, Auteuil 2007 - NH Sire
Prince Percy was initially set to compete in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, a race where he may well have gone off as favourite, but was declared a non runner after reportedly being found cast in his box which is never a fun experience for either horse or human. Hopefully he will have recovered from the experience as he is an interesting contender in Monday's race. Particularly as his yard is enjoying a much better spell of form than it was doing three weeks earlier. Prior to his missed engagement, Prince Percy had four runs this year - three during the winter and one more on the eleventh of June. He twice finished a length and three quarters behind the winner in ten furlong handicaps at Lingfield off marks in the low sixties and the race where he was beaten into fifth of seven has worked out very well for the grade. Trainer Gary Moore boasts a very healthy winner to runner rate of 38% from a good sized sample and is well adept at winning juvenile hurdles with horses rated lower than Prince Percy. Sir Percy, also the sire of Presenting Percy, is above average in terms of his winner/runner ratio for juveniles, horses out of High Chaparral mares are no strangers to success over hurdles and Prince Percy's granddam is a half sister to Walk In The Park (sire of Min and Douvan). If there are to be misgivings about Prince Percy's credentials, they may well be found in his willingness to give best. He has been backed on all six of his starts to date, including into favouritism last time out, yet he remains without a win and concerns are further enhanced by observations of his races where he has been seen to hang. Nevertheless, while these factors may impact the case for his winning the race, he still habitually runs close enough to his level and if the casting experience has not left any profound psychological scars then he has every right to involve himself in this company.

Soldier On Parade bg A Murphy (66) 68
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
The best of those with hurdling experience, Soldier On Parade came out of his Bangor race with great credit after finding only Hiconic too good and finishing a long way clear of the remainder. He brought and consistent and fair form into that race and attracted market support before the off. Racing in the vanguard, his jumping was well above average for a juvenile while leaving enough room for achievable improvement for the experience. Any stamina concerns caused by his dosage index were allayed by his sire as well as his flat efforts and rendered negligible by his Bangor performance. While he wore headgear on the flat, it was taken off for his hurdling debut and after showing little to no ill effect for its removal, he once again runs without any aids. Trainer Amy Murphy is still to send out a winning juvenile but she is still in good form and must have a strong chance of breaking that duck should Soldier On Parade replicate his Bangor run. Particularly if he finds the improvement entitled to him after his first lesson.

Current chf D Roberts 1-0-0 (-) 14
Equiano (New Approach){8-c}(0.57) 2/1 First Buddy 122 5th Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
A very distant relative of Brave Inca (12/10) but a closer one to Top Strategy (5/4), Current finished according to her 100/1 odds when finishing nearly forty lengths behind Soldier On Parade at Bangor. It would be generous to call that effort promising but in fairness to her, she did jump quite well and probably burned up a fair amount of energy arguing with her jockey on the way to the start and throughout the first portions of the race. There is no real case for considering her as a contender and she is still likelier to finish closer to last than first. Nevertheless, with question marks hanging over a few of these, there might be a faint whisper of each way value in a triple digit price.

Strong prospects
1. Soldier On Parade
Reasonable prospects
2. Prince Percy
3. Dutch Admiral
4. Mick
Feasible prospects
5. Current
Moderate prospects
6. Dorchester Dom
7. Party Potential
Negligible prospects
8. Dragon Man
9. Billy The Squid

tl;dr
  • Market Rasen provides a solid test and has been visited by several good juveniles over the years.
  • This race may not produce reliable form due to negative elements of profiles carried by most horses.
  • Soldier On Parade made a very satisfactory debut and may prove hard to beat if he improves on that effort.
  • Prince Percy has a solid profile and while he may not be a battler, he can give a good account if none the worse for being cast in his box.
  • Dutch Admiral has the best flat form and is with a good trainer but his sire's record is grim.
  • Mick has fair flat form at best but may struggle to confirm placings with Soldier On Parade and also lacks consistency.
  • Current was well beaten at Bangor but could outrun long odds.
  • Dorchester Dom stamina not a worry on paper but form has dropped massively after his debut in the 2019 Brocklesby.
  • Party Potential's trainer is always worthy of respect but this looks one of the yards less likely types.
  • Dragon Man seemed to lose interest after an early mistake but would still need to improve regardless.
  • Billy The Squid's damline offers encouragement but his own efforts do not.
 
Grey said:
Solid work, BH, identifying the winner and the exacta.
Click to expand...

Third exacta on the bounce and gave the first winner strong prospects before it even got its 16/1 tissue. I could probably just copy the previews verbatim and use them as race reviews...

Beef or Salmon said:
He also had Mick further up the list than he appeared in the betting, got the place part of a very nice 25/1 e/w. Thank you BH.
Click to expand...

Ah, so I did :o

Thanks a lot lads :D

As always, I must stress that I am neither a tipster nor a punter and that the previews are just a way of contextualising the race in advance. Such a streak will not last and while it is admittedly quite satisfying to see the races broadly pan out as expected, there is more to learn when things do not go according to plan which is something else to look forward to in this thread. If anybody is using this thread as a guide for their punting (used in conjunction with their own opinions of course) then I hope it is found useful and wish them the best of luck. Nevertheless, I am not a tipster and my previews are not tips...

While there is the temptation to use the preview for the review of today's race, there is more integrity in actually reviewing the race. This will be forthcoming but may have to wait a short while as I ended up tumbling down the dosages rabbit hole.

So here is the condensed data for juvenile performances by dosage index in blocks according to the amount of races contested with the deviations from the averages at the end. Apologies for the presentation;-

V0Ojr1N.png


I will not belabour the point made in the previous post on the matter but these additional figures have broadly confirmed the rudimentary premise that low dosage index equals good. If anybody has any thoughts, observations or questions pertinent to the above figures then please feel compelled to share them.

Going back to the family numbers, they did seem rather vague and indecisive on their own when the statistics were first assembled. Nevertheless, unperturbed and now armed with the dosage information that concerns itself with the upper part of the pedigree charts, I decided to see if applying DI to the family numbers would reveal anything of interest. Could it be possible that some families are crying out for some solid or even professional genes in order to reach their juvenile hurdling potential? As a DI of 1.00 or lower seems was a statistically positive figure, I took those with according DI figures who had three or more runs and isolated the family numbers before comparing the winners:runners and 108+ ratios to the general figure. After doing this, three family numbers saw performance increases of over a third;-

{4-i} (Goshen, Footpad, Sir Psycho / Rock On Ruby, Kemboy, Maid Of Money / Azamour, Falbrav, Quest For Fame)
{19} (Pentland Hills, Allmankind, Kentucky Hyden / Gay Trip, Pats Jester, Miss Nero / Oasis Dream, Kingman, Kooyonga)
{21-a} (Adriana Des Mottes, Mister Chow, Kapga De Cerisy / Mill House, Cue Card, Anzum / Sakhee, Doyoun, Sweetmeat)

These three families are shown in these tables with their progeny banded by dosage index.

pNFb8B8.png


Small sample sizes notwithstanding, insofar as these three families are concerned, the possession of a low dosage index appears to make a very marked impact on the progeny's ability to perform over juvenile hurdles. Although it would probably do to consider that these may be exceptional cases and that a magic formula has not been happened upon.
 
BH. What stated your love affair with juvenile hurdlers.

I'll be honest and say they interest me like a bumper horse does. Can I spot a future chaser and to that extent I prefer bumper horses.
 
The fourth juvenile hurdle of the season took place yesterday at Market Rasen and the first sans Hiconic. In the end, it went to her Bangor victim who won the race very nicely. While by pure dint of flat form and connections the field seemed fairly strong beforehand, there were enough holes in the profiles to be sceptical about the overall quality of the field and this is emphasised by the sloppy jumping by many of the runners. Nevertheless it was still ran at a fair gallop and the two with the sturdiest biographies came to the fore which makes the form more reliable. Soldier On Parade was second favourite to Dutch Admiral in one tissue and the early exchanges saw the winner offered at 7/4 but his starting price was a much better reflection of his chances. Party Potential and Dutch Admiral's opening shows were understandable from their basic profiles and their drifts sensible. Quite why Billy The Squid started the day in single digits was peculiar and may have hinged on the stable's decent form but his price also went in the correct direction. Dorchester Dom drifted like a barge but his attitude cleared up that mystery. The going was good.

Soldier On Parade did not win head on chest but it was a very comfortable success and was never asked to do more than stretch out. Leading from the start, he took a fairly keen hold early on and went left at the first two flights but apart from being guessy at the last was neat and tidy at the rest of his jumps. Similarly to Bangor, his pace around half a mile out had the rest of the field in trouble and without asked any serious questions was able to win quite cosily in the end. While he looked like a very nice horse, given the improvement anticipated from his Bangor effort, he was entitled to win this race as he did. There probably should not be too much read into the distance he put between himself and those behind as they all gave incorrect answers to the questions posed of them going into the race. Nevertheless, it was still a good performance for what it was and a rating in the mid 110s would be fair. Whether that is good enough to defy a penalty will depend on the competition.

Prince Percy was representing a decent yard and pedigree for the discipline as well as a fair standard of form from the flat. He missed his intended jumps debut at Newton Abbot after reportedly being found cast in his box but showed no ill effects for that experience and made a pleasing introduction. Lit up a bit early on, he settled fairly quickly and apart from a couple of confused jumps at the end of the race, he went over his hurdles nicely. The standard of this performance would be broadly in keeping with the flat form shown by this consistent horse and he can certainly be competitive in this kind of race. If there is to be a note of caution, this was the seventh time in as many career starts that he was supported in the market without winning. Perhaps too much can be read into that but this capable and consistent animal still needs to prove that he can have his head in front at the finishing line.

Mick finished ahead of the winner on the flat at Doncaster but the gap in hurdling experience accounted for many of the twenty-two lengths between the pair on this occasion. Slightly hampered at the first before being big and slow at several of his jumps, Mick was off the bridle and finding himself outpaced at the end of the back straight, but he did manage to rally into third place at the finish. This was a fair debut and he has given himself enough to work on but he would want to be a bit more confident in the future and his being inconsistent on the flat will also have to be taken into account for the time being.

Party Potential was Alan King's second juvenile hurdler of the season after his first, Kings Creek, was beaten into fourth at Stratford last Tuesday. On paper, Party Potential did not look as strong as the aforementioned beforehand and while he jumped better than a few of these, the fluency, attitude and ultimately his form was a level below Kings Creek. He would either have to improve or find a very weak contest to be competitive in the near future.

Dutch Admiral ran a shocker on the basis of flat form and trainer but according to his sire, he did as well as can be expected. He has a nice enough size but showed no natural fluency over his obstacles here. Perhaps with sufficient time, schooling and experience he can improve on this but on this evidence, he needs to return to the flat if he is going to make use of his patent ability.

Current put up a career best here after travelling slightly better than at Bangor and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, she finished tired and lacks the stamina to be competitive over hurdles at this stage of her career.

Billy The Squid was probably distracted when jumping wildly to the left at the first but there are no apparent excuses for his bunny hopping and other forms of non-hurdler hurdling. Was pushed along going past the stands and lost touch before leaving the back straight.

Dragon Man improved on his Stratford outing and although he needed encouraging into most of his jumps, managed to get over them alright. He does not look a natural for this discipline.

Dorchester Dom opened at a price of 8/1 in the morning, representing the strong Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. There were misgivings to be had over the quality of his form since his debut in last year's Brocklesby but his drifting out to 66/1 was conspicuous. In the event, he barely consented to jump off and the quality of his hurdling was poor before he was pulled up with two left to jump.

tl:dr

  • The front two give the form strength but beyond that pair, the form is not entirely reliable.
  • Soldier On Parade did not have to improve much to win as he did but it was still a nice performance.
  • Prince Percy made a good start and while he has ability, he still needs to prove he can win.
  • Mick made a fair debut but would still need to improve and is inconsistent
  • Party Potential would be one of Alan King's lesser lights
  • Dutch Admiral should be running on the flat for now at least
  • Current does not have the stamina for jumping
  • The rest showed no promise


granger said:
BH. What stated your love affair with juvenile hurdlers.

I'll be honest and say they interest me like a bumper horse does. Can I spot a future chaser and to that extent I prefer bumper horses.
Click to expand...

Erm, big question with long psychiatrist couch answer. Just as anybody's answer would be to the question "Why do you like watching big, stupid, but magnificent animals run around fields and jump over stuff?" - let alone why somebody becomes interested in a very specific niche...

It stems from a childhood desire to want to know everything about everything and in turn, everything about every horse. Learning about every juvenile hurdler seemed like a tidy way to start the process but having the attention span of a child with ADD put paid to these projects quite regularly. But the seed was planted and the more I watched juveniles as a kind of throwback to my youth, the more I became drawn to them for other reasons. The main being that they start their hurdling careers with a tabula rosa of sorts and you get to watch these tableaus slowly manifest in real time which I always thought quite poetic. Of course the more I learned about them, the more I learned that they are not entirely blank sheets bereft of information but entities of faint, imperfect, incomplete and muddling evidence which needed a concerted exploration in order to envisage. This appeals to the historian in me who exists in a very tangible way but ended up dropping out of Durham due to the uncomfortable cynicism and sense of existential redundancy one can develop when reading humanities. Which also ties into the other reason I enjoy juveniles hurdlers being the fact that horses are beautiful. All of them. Without exception. Even the ones running around a field in the middle of nowhere on a mediocre midweek card for the sum of a few weeks' training fees. And while the question "Will this horse make a hurdler?" probably isn't as high-minded as "Will mankind ever put an end to genocide?", the research that goes into it is much more pleasant and the conclusion - whether correct or otherwise - is actually quite comforting by comparison. After all, as good as Mick Foley was as a wrestler, he will be the first to tell you that he is not actually god.

Plus tracks like Cartmel and Hexham are truly lovely places.

Do you think that if the juvenile hurdles in the UK and Ireland were more like the French versions which, like our bumpers I suppose, are predominantly a schooling ground for future, you would enjoy them more?

Danny said:
I'd missed the the last few posts, just catching up now but cracking stuff BH.
Click to expand...

Nice one Danny!
 
Ireland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place at Roscommon on Monday and is due to see several top yards in the division represented. Eleven races of its type have taken place at the course since 2011 with the average winning dosage index being 1.75 mean and 1.77 median. Roscommon being a sharp track with some of the lowest seconds-per-furlong average times would correspond with these relatively high DIs. The race, particularly with its large field size looks like a trappy affair and while a couple of nice horses might emerge, it should still be approached with caution as most of the contenders have quesions to answer.

A Mere Bagatelle bg John Joseph Hanlon (56) 50
Born To Sea (Fasliyev){11}(4.00) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
A Mere Bagatelle had three flat starts last season for Jonathan Fogarty and found himself well beaten on each occasion. There were some useful animals ahead of him in those races such as Innisfree, Shekhem and Mogul, but he was too far away from them to catch any kudos by proxy. On breeding, A Mere Bagatelle ticks several boxes as his sire has made a decent start in the discipline and his granddam was a sibling of good hurdler Kerawi. There would be nagging stamina doubts, particularly as the family sees a marked improvement with a lower dosage index, although Roscommon is one of the less demanding tracks in that regard.

Belgoprince chg A J Martin (70.4) 48
Prince Gibraltar (Bering){9-f}(0.82) 2/1 Golden Marvel Jumps winner in USA
Belgoprince had nine starts in his native France with the last three coming in claimers at Marseille's Pont-de-Vivaux. He won the first of those races before being beaten into third and second while coming ahead at the weights. He was claimed for €16,256 after the third of those outings where he showed a decent willingness to hit the front before possibly idling close to the line. The winner that day has since been finishing mid division in handicaps, the third places has been runner up in handicaps his last three starts and the fourth's valeur has risen to 34 so Belgoprince's official rating of 70 looks very fair on that basis. Following a three month absense, he made his Irish debut in a Ballinrobe apprentice handicap where he finished down the field after receiving little support in the market. Only Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have sent out more juveniles than Tony Martin than 2011/12 although his winners to runners ratio is rather on the lower end of the scale and he has not recently been amongst the winners. Sire Prince Gibraltar has yet to have a hurdler in the UK or Ireland but has had four in France thus far including a winner and two placed horses - one of those being recent Arqana sales topper Prunay. His dam has a jumps winning sibling in America and is herself 3/2 with the decent French juveniles Houx Maqique and Hoc Volo. Belgoprince is certainly capable of making a useful juvenile hurdler although it remains to be seen if he is firing on all cylinders first time out.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien (68) 75
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Joseph O'Brien's first juvenile runner of the season, Calidus Mirabilis was twice successful on the all weather at the beginning of the year when taking successive handicaps at Dundalk and then at Chelmsford. He showed a nice attitude in the process of winning at Chelmsford although he did drift to his right at Dundalk both when winning in January and when runner up in the middle of last month. The form is fair although his official flat rating of 70 may be the ceiling of his ability and a switch to hurdling at this stage may be done as an alternative to competing off his mark. Calidus Mirabilis will also be Hot Streak's first offspring to go over jumps and while Iffraaj (also on the Zafonic sireline) produced last season's good juvenile and stablemate Cerberus, the latter's damsire Montjeu is a far more secure stamina influence than Oasis Dream.

Dazzling Darren chg Gavin Cromwell (68) 70
Dragon Pulse (Dark Angel){16-f}(1.67) no jumps relatives
When looking at trainers whose charges improve for the switch between codes, of those with ten or more qualifiers, Gavin Cromwell sits atop the table with 80% of his juveniles improving on their equivalent flat ratings. He is due to saddle two in this field, the first being the mount of Conor McNamara. Dazzing Darren joined the Gavin Cromwell yard for £4,200 after a winless six race season as a two year old which saw him earn a rating of 49. Following a hat-trick of wins at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton that rating increased to 58 and a further increase to the current 68 followed three successive seconds at this track in handicaps ranging from ten furlongs on good-to-firm to twelve furlongs on heavy. This sequence of consistency came to an end last week at Galway where he was perhaps keener than usual in first time blinkers which are left off here. The form of these runs is reasonable without being remarkable but he does have the measure of several of these rivals. Dazzing Darren's case does rather deteriorate when considering his pedigree as Dragon Pulse has a mere 3% strike rate with his juveniles and there are no jumpers to be found within recent generations on the damline.

Differentiate bg Gavin Cromwell (55) 58
Maxios (Kris S){2-d}(1.21) 2/2 Maxios 3/1 Exit To Nowhere
The other Cromwell entry, Differentiate differentiates from stablemate Dazzling Darren in that while his flat form is weaker, his pedigree profile is stronger. Insofar as his flat form is concerned, he has improved recently and is showing consistency with two third place finishes over distances of thirteen and fourteen furlongs. However, his mark of 55 is the lowest of all those achieved by his rivals bar one and the subsequent form of his outings are in keeping with the low ratings involved. Nevertheless, Differentiate's stallion Maxios is a force in this division with his winners to runners, wins to runs, 108+ RPRs and improvement rates all near or at the top. And although there are no jumpers on the immediate damline, Differentiate's dam is a half sister to leading juvenile sire Maxios. Though one might ruminate on Maxios and the fondness he has for his auntie, a more interesting fact is that his uncle Exit To Nowhere was a very decent dual-purpose sire. Differentiate's career began at the yard of Andrew Oliver under whose care Dodging Bullets, Mega Fortune and Gavin Cromwell's winning juvenile Plain Talking also made their first steps onto the racecourse. It is difficult to get away from the low standard of Differentiate's flat form, particularly as he is badly weighted against several of these, since his profile would otherwise make plenty of appeal.

Jeff Kidder bg Noel Meade (64) 71
Hallowed Crown (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) no jumps relatives (2/2 Lady Kapalua)
Well beaten on his three runs last year, Jeff Kidder slipped up in the early stages of a ten furlong handicap at this track in mid June. However, he showed no ill effects for that incident and has twice been a narrowly beaten runner up in a pair of 1m5f handicaps at Sligo and Ballinrobe. The front two pulled over six lengths clear in the latter race and while Jeff Kidder was a touch flattered to finish close to the well handicapped winner Shumaker, the form was boosted when that horse followed up again at Down Royal. Noel Meade has an excellent record with juvenile hurdlers and his winners to runners rate of 39% increases to 50% when accounting only for horses he trained on the flat himself. Winning juvenile hurdles with flat ratings lower than 65 is not a problem for the trainer either with both Bat Masterson and Dodgybingo successful in this sphere with a flat rating of 63. Sire Hallowed Crown has yet to sire any jumps runners but while his sire Street Sense managed to produce a winning juvenile, the Machiavellian line is not altogether encouraging in this sphere. Neither is there much encouragement to draw from Rail Link's influence or that of the damline. Although the negativity surrounding this pedigree is based more on an absence of solid information rather than confirmation of underperformance, it is still detrimental to the horse's overall profile.

Little Brother bg J A Nash (57) 57
Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle, Ascot 1998
Little Brother got off the mark on his eighth attempt when winning a Sligo handicap by a neck from Jeff Kidder and Differentiate and had twice placed in Roscommon handicaps leading up to that race.
The win came after a step up of three furlongs in trip after shaping as though further would suit when twice placed over ten furlongs. The form of that win has stood up with the next three home each finishing placed in similar handicaps and while he was a beaten favourite last time at Killarney, it did not represent a major regression. Notwithstanding, the gap of seven pounds in the official ratings between himself and Jeff Kidder seems fair. The records of sire and trainer in this sphere are respectable without being prolific.

Longclaw bc Gordon Elliott (84) 83
Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) american family
After beginning at the Curragh in July and finishing third behind Group One winners Alpine Star and Santiago, Longclaw's two year old career saw him contest a listed contest at Kentucky Downs where he was able to pick up nearly forty thousand pound's worth of third place prize money. After another run at Churchill Downs in November, Longclaw crossed the Atlantic once again to resume his career in Ireland. His return came in less esteemed company in a Roscommon maiden but would finish down the field after drifting to 11/4 from a morning price of 11/10. He was then tried in cheekpieces for his next start but was beaten even further, albeit in slightly stronger company. Gordon Elliott is the leading trainer of juveniles in Ireland with fifty-five individual winners since 2011/12 and the best of Longclaw's flat form is far superior to anything else produced by this field's runners. However, his profile is a regressive one and there is no salvation to be found in either his pedigree or the fact that he is still an entire.

Orchestral Rain bg W McCreery (-) 69
Born To Sea (Val Royal){23}(2.43) 2/1 Crafty Codger 1st 3YO Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
With just the one start, Orchestral Rain is the least exposed of those with experience and that run came in a Killarney maiden where he finished a neck behind Longclaw. It was not a run without promise as after a slow start, he was pushed into a promising position where perhaps too much use was made of him. He lost his place turning in but kept on without being given too hard a time and shaped as though he would very much improve for the experience. Willie McCreery has not saddled a jumps winner in over five years but he can get improvement between codes out of his juveniles and has enjoyed three winners on the flat in the past fortnight including one at Galway. Born To Sea counts the classy A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower along with triple winner Malangan among his early crops of juveniles - the latter two carrying DIs above 2.50. Orchestral Rain's dam is a half sister to winning juvenile Crafty Codger from the family of Alflora, Ardross and Scorpion. His trainer's recent record in jumps races is a concern and Orchestral Rain is mostly an unproven entity but an expectable improvement on his debut run would put his flat form close to the best available from this field and his pedigree has a very favourable feel.

Strip Light chg M Halford (68) 67
Outstrip (Dark Angel){1-p}(2.00) 3/1 Fine Lace 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Chepstow 2010
It has been a very long time since Michael Halford has sent out a juvenile hurdler but he was the handler of Triumph Hurdle third Golden Cross early on in his training career. However, while Golden Cross's sire Goldmark was a stamina influence who stood as a jumping sire, the same may not ring true for Outstrip. Strip Light has yet to finish within seven lengths of the winner in his three starts on the flat although it would be inaccurate to say he has found himself particularly disgraced. Nevertheless, the official mark of 68 looks steep and while there are capable juveniles on the damline, others here have more solid profiles.

Summit Rock bg T G McCourt (56) 69
Exceed And Excel (Iceman){16-a}(1.00) 2/2 Quick Jack 1st Galway Hurdle (136), Galway 2015
Summit Rock was initially handed a rating of 74 after three runs in Dundalk maidens for Dermot Weld last year. That rating was based on the sole occasion he was beaten less than four lengths and that came in a maiden that has produced only one subsequent winner. After selling at Goffs for €6000 in February, Summit Rock has been well beaten in four handicaps and his current rating of 56 is greater than the sum of those efforts. While he is related to winners on the dam's side, including Galway Hurdle winner Quick Jack, his sire has a poor record in this sphere.

Tipperary Moon bg Des Donovan (50) 40
Sea Moon (Vale Of York){3-d}(1.29) 3/0 Celestial Choir 1st Dipper Novices' Chase, Newcastle 1998
Tipperary Moon will be the first jumps runner for his sire but his damsire produced two winning juveniles of his own and his great granddam was a useful chaser in the nineties. However, the standard of his three flat runs is poor and his trainer has yet to saddle a jumps winner.

Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey Unraced
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) no jumps relatives (2/2 Jeff Kidder)
Lady Kapula is an unraced filly from a family with no close jumping relatives and from a yard for whom none of its six juveniles have won since 2011/12. The aforementioned Maxios is a stallion worthy of regard and while Champs Elysees mares have yet to produce any jumps runners in the UK or Ireland, he is an above average stallion in the division. It would be difficult to build a case on her sire and damsire alone but she would not be entirely dismissed.

Merry Poppins grf J Motherway Unraced
Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
Another unraced filly representing another top class sire of juvenile hurdlers. Only Mastercraftsman (21) has sired more winning juveniles than Authorized (20) since 2011/12 and the latter has done so with fewer runners. Peintre Celebre is also an above average damsire whose statistics are only marginally inferior to those of Champs Elysees. Merry Poppins will be only the second juvenile hurdler from the yard since 2011/12 and once again, a strong argument for her can not be made based on decent sirelines alone.

Runcible bf Miss Katy Brown (59) 61
Ivawood (Tiger Hill){9-c}(1.67) 2/1 Cyborg 122 1st Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2010
First Reserve. Was not disgraced in her defeats in maiden company over ten furlongs at Lingfield or Leopardstown but has since disappointed in two subsequent outings. Ivawood is zero from one with juvenile hurdlers and his sire Zebedee has a poor record in the division. Tiger Hill is respectable in the sphere but there is not much else on which to hinge her case.

Hay Kimbello blg Denis Gerard Hogan (-) 24
Alhebayeb (Key Of Luck){6-e}(2.00) 3/2 Midnight Legend 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 1999
Second reserve. Was beaten a combined forty-nine lengths in two maidens last year and was beaten twenty-three lengths when 150/1 for his reappearance at Gowran Park in June. Related to Midnight Legend and Key Of Luck is an able damsire but neither the records of her sire nor trainer in this division inspire enthusiasm.

Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery (63) 72
Poet's Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
Third reserve. Has not raced this season and his form rather tailed off towards the backend of the last campaign. Should stay on breeding and his sire, trainer and damsire are not without their merits in the sphere. Damline also features good jumps stallions Sholokhov and Soldier Of Fortune. Perhaps worthier of a place in this field than a few of the declared runners but still has an absence and loss of form to overcome.

Strong prospects
1. Orchestral Rain
2. Jeff Kidder
3. Belgoprince
Reasonable prospects
4. Dazzling Darren
5. Calidus Mirabilis
6. Longclaw
Feasible prospects
7. Differentiate
8. Little Brother
Moderate prospects
9. Lady Kapalua
10. Voice Of Hope (R)
11. Merry Poppins
12. Strip Light
13. A Mere Bagatelle
Negligible prospects
14. Summit Rock
15. Tipperary Moon
16. Runcible (R)
17. Hay Kimbello (R)

granger said:
Have a nice day :)
Click to expand...

BANG BANG!
 
Not content with simply writing a 2844 word essay on a Monday afternoon Roscommon maiden hurdle, I dedicated a large portion of my bike ride this morning to thinking about the race. Perhaps the scenery of my Peak District route would have sufficed in keeping my attention were I not peddling into a driving headwind while getting pelted with thick rain but I did get to thinking about the success rates of juveniles purchased from French claimers.

So according to my records, thirty juvenile hurdlers since the 2011/12 season were sourced in French claimers. Sixteen from flat claimers and fourteen from the hurdle races. Overall, seven of those horses won as juveniles, three bought from flat claimers and four from the jumps and the wins to runs rates are four from forty-nine flat (8.2%) and four from fifty-eight jumps (6.9%)

The median jumps rating of those purchased from claiming hurdles was 111 while the median RPR achieved in the UK/IRE during the juvenile season was 108. This dip in standard was slight compared to the flat claimed counterparts who earned a median RPR of just 89.5 despite a median flat mark of 71.5. Only one horse of these thirty recouped their claiming price during their juvenile season and that was Chic Name who earned £20,668 in prize money during a ten race campaign after being claimed by Richard Hobson out of the Augustin Adeline De Boisbrunet yard for €13,000.

Insofar as tomorrow's race is concerned Tony Martin's Belgoprince was claimed from Cedric Rossi for €16,256. Belgoprince is set to be the sixth horse claimed from French claimers (all flat races incidentally) to run over hurdles as a juvenile for the yard during this time period. None of them have won in fourteen starts between them and only Fullmoon In Paris collected any prize money courtesy of her thirty-seven length fourth in a Gowran maiden in 2017. Tropic Thunder would win two on the bounce after leaving the Martin yard and Mydor landed the odds for Tony Martin in a Fairyhouse Handicap as a five-year-old. Another who would enjoy success under the care of the Summerhill trainer was Heartbreak City. After changing hands for €23,006, Heartbreak City would not win his first race for his new handler until the summer as a five year old when taking a class 2 York handicap. He would go on to win another handicap at the venue in the shape of the 2016 Ebor before finishing runner up in the Melbourne Cup.

Nevertheless, while Belgoprince might one day earn nearly three quarters of a million pounds, I am not quite as optimistic about his prospects in tomorrow's race and will change the prospects list accordingly. Once again, this is only to contextualise the race in advance and should not be taken as a tip. I am not a tipster. Mercifully, the parasites have not priced this one up yet so the original prospects list will not have affected anybody's financial wellbeing. I hope... If there ends up being an avalanche of money for Belgoprince then his prospects improve but otherwise, they lie somewhere between reasonable and feasible. I am not a tipster.

Strong prospects
1. Orchestral Rain
2. Jeff Kidder
Reasonable prospects
3. Dazzling Darren
4. Calidus Mirabilis
5. Longclaw
6. Belgoprince
Feasible prospects
7. Differentiate
8. Little Brother
Moderate prospects
9. Lady Kapalua
10. Voice Of Hope (R)
11. Merry Poppins
12. Strip Light
13. A Mere Bagatelle
Negligible prospects
14. Summit Rock
15. Tipperary Moon
16. Runcible (R)
17. Hay Kimbello (R)
 
Last edited:
2 strong prospects both in the top 3 can't do much better than that. Top stuff BH.
 
My review of today's race will have to wait until tomorrow but I can post the preview for Wednesday's contest at Newton Abbot here;-

Juvenile hurdling in the UK returns to the scene of the curtain raiser, Newton Abbot, for race five of the season. Hiconic began her winning streak that day and attempts to make it four from four on Wednesday. She has barely put a hoof wrong thus far and while she may have the measure of her reopposing rivals, a couple of the newcomers could present her with her toughest assignment to date. The race distance extends to seventeen furlongs but with an average winning DI exceeding 1.40 among its juveniles, Newton Abbot is one of the easiest courses insofar as stamina is concerned.

Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j3-3-0 (119) 108
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Hiconic has done everything asked of her in three starts and has improved on each occasion. Despite picking up penalties and facing arguably sterner opposition on each occasion, her winning distances have done nothing but increase. She was asked to extend more than usual during her win at Stratford last time and while her official rating of 119 looks in keeping with her performances, she will be giving upwards of a stone to her rivals. It is possible she can improve further but unless one brings her rider's claim into account, her winning is contingent on either her finding further improvement or none of her rivals running to a mark of 105. She could be as vulnerable as she has been thus far over hurdles against some respectable opponents. Nevertheless, she is still proven in this discipline and under these conditions.

Balko Saint bg Mrs Jane Williams Unraced
Balko (Saint Des Saints){5-i}(0.71) 2/1 Workbench 3rd Badger Ales Trophy (131), Wincanton 2014
During the 2018/19 season, Jane Williams sent out the unraced Montestrel to win the traditionally well contested juvenile hurdle at Chepstow's October meeting at 20/1, upsetting triple graded winner Quel Destin in the process. While it might be lazy to describe the George Nympton yard of Jane and Nick Williams as basically the same thing, it would also be accurate. Since 2011/12, twenty-five horses from the yard have made their racecourse debuts in juvenile hurdles with eight of them winning during their initial campaign. This gives the yard healthy 32% winner to runner ratio although only two of those horses were able to win first time of asking. Nevertheless, this type of horse would also earn a median peak RPR of 107 which would make them very competitive in this field. Having Balko as a stallion and Saint Des Saints a damsire is about as solid as it gets for good French jumping pedigrees and the two have combined to produce the useful Dinons. Although while both are well above average when it comes to their juvenile credentials, their progeny also improve with age and their stout influence may not lend itself to a debutant at Newton Abbot. The damline contains some good jumpers from the useful Workbench (2/1) to the 1976 Grand Steeplechase de Paris winner Piomares (5/1). For all that Balko Saint is an interesting newcomer to the sport, the yard's record, the horse's pedigree and the capable animals in opposition would suggest that there may be brighter opportunities in the future.

Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien f3-0-0 (47) 34 j1-0-0 (-) 54
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
Billy The Squid has good horses on the damline and his trainer is in flying form. However, both of these were true when he made a woeful hurdles debut last week at Market Rasen and while it would be difficult to not improve on his jumping, there is no reason to imagine that he can get involved in this field.

Edebez bg S Mullins f3-0-0 (53) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 90
Zebedee (Barathea){4-r}(1.67) No immediate jumps relatives, 7/5 Le Breuil
Finishing twenty-one lengths behind Hiconic at this venue last month, Edebez reopposes on twenty-one pounds better terms. Apart from a big jump at the first, he was fairly fluent throughout and while he did finish tired, that may well have been due to a long lay-off. If he is to be competitive at any course over hurdles then based on his breeding, it would probably be Newton Abbot. However, Hiconic has almost certainly improved since that encounter and there are a few other opponents here who would likely be too strong for him on this occasion.

Fiach Stoney bg M Loughnane f3-0-0 (52) 48 j1-0-0 (-) 53
Urban Poet (Excellent Art){9-c}(2.08) 2/0 Randall's Diana 1st Handicap Hurdle (88), Listowel 2008
That his granddam was a hurdles winner was the basis of his case before putting in a novicey round of jumping and finishing fifty-two lengths behind Hiconic at Stratford just over a fortnight ago.

Highlander Madrik chg David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 73
Masterstroke (Redback){1-b}(0.33) 2/1 You're The Top 1st Novices' Chase, Kempton 2009
Yesterday I wrote about how horses claimed out of French races since 2011/12 do not have a particularly strong record in juvenile hurdles with only three of those sixteen taken out of claimers winning in the sphere. There are exceptions to rules however and one exists in David Pipe who can take credit for two of those winners from three claims. The form of the Dieppe claimer where he may have won but for a slight stumble towards the line has a fair look to it with the winner finishing third in a similar event and the third placed horse - who was about ten pounds behind - winning an Argentan handicap off 28.5 (roughly 62.7 in the UK/Ireland). Furthermore, while the Mikaël Seror export juveniles came through means other than claiming races, they have included Fanfan Du Seuil and Call Me Lord. Masterstroke, who this year joined Yorton Farm Stud after standing in France, is a Monsun stallion out of a half sister to Galileo. He has yet to have a UK/IRE jumps winner from his first three crops but does have a 33% winners to runners rate with his French jumpers including the useful three-year-old of 2018, Floridee. Furthermore, Redback mares have produced three winning juveniles from five and Highlander Madrik's dam, who is from the family of You're The Top and Old March, won four times over jumps including a chase at three years old. However, if there are holes in his profile, he could be another who might find Newton Abbot too sharp as his win at Compiegne came on heavy and the race he was claimed from was over fifteen furlongs on soft ground. Furthermore, while David Pipe has won with two claimed horses, both were more expensive than Highlander Madrik by over eight and twenty-two thousand euros and neither won until competing in late season handicaps.

Pink Jazz bg S Curran f10-1-1 (59) 62 j1-0-1 (-) 93
Red Jazz (Captain Marvelous){2-f}(1.67) 2/1 Band Of Blood 4th Drinmore Novices Chase, Fairyhouse 2014
Sean Curran has not sent out a winning juvenile hurdler since Prince Pippin in November 2009 and has only sent out five since 2011/12 including this one at Stratford. He is set to saddle two on Wednesday and Gavin Sheehan retains the mount on Pink Jazz. A winner on the flat for Gordon Elliott, Pink Jazz made a fair account of himself on his debut at Stratford. After pulling hard early, he would settle after getting a lead and put in a reasonable round of jumping before finishing eight and three quarter lengths behind Hiconic. With standard improvement from the debut run, he would be entitled to be competitive in this kind of company, particularly at a track which places less emphasis on stamina. However, there would be concerns with his attitude as although he is fairly honest and consistent, his resolve could be his undoing. He appeared to have any fight knocked out of him when slightly hampered at Windsor and probably failed to give best in the battle for second place at Stratford.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran 6-0-1 (60) 60
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
The second half of the Sean Curran duo, Talking About You makes decent appeal on her pedigree. As well as being related to jumps winners, her sire Sixties Icon (also the sire of Hiconic) and damsire Mastercraftsman both have above average records in the discipline. Her flat form for Mick Channon has also seen some improvement to a fair level with her last being seen finishing runner up in a Windsor claimer. Although she wasn't claimed out of that race, the juveniles who have been for the £8000 advertised have only one win from twenty four starts between them. Furthermore, while Mick Channon graduates have a healthy 22% winner to runner rate, that drops to 13.6% when you remove those trained by Sheena West or sold at public aution. Talking About You may have the ability to be competitive in a weaker race over hurdles - possibly over further - but will do well to in this company. Especially as she also appears to lack a combative attitude.

Strong prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Pink Jazz
3. Highlander Madrik
4. Balko Saint
Feasible - moderate prospects
5. Ebedez
6. Talking About You
Negligible prospects
7. Billy The Squid
8. Fiach Stoney
 
Ireland's juvenile hurdling season opened with a maiden hurdle at Roscommon, as is tradition. It featured representatives from several successful yards in the division including Gordon Elliott who saddled the winner Longclaw. It was ran at a good gallop on ground that was yielding, good in places, the likely horses finished at the front and while Calidus Mirabilis ran into the rail turning for home, it did not cost him any places and there was nothing else resembling harsh luck.

Longclaw took a rather alarming drift in the market from the 11/8 available in the morning to touching 8/1 on the track. While there were reservations to be had over his seemingly regressive form, the drift looked like an over-correction as there was nothing wrong with his performance. Apart from a mistake at the second, his jumping was decent and he was a decisive winner in the end even if the runner up received no harsher a ride than he did. In winning this, he became the first juvenile winner for his sire and the only entire to win such a race apart from Sir Erec. While his flat form this season was not as strong as last year, it was still as good as anything else seen from this field and while this performance can be seen as something as a revival, it would not represent a huge leap forward. He certainly won this race nicely enough and a mark of around 120 would be reasonable but the conditions were ideal for him here and it is not a given that he will be able to meet sterner tasks in terms of competition and conditions.

Jeff Kidder was the horse who countered Longclaws drift in the market when being backed into favouritism and it was a fair reflection of his chances. He has been improving on the flat recently for the step up in distance and this represents further improvement. He made a mistake at the third and rather misjudged the last before landing in the winners path but his jumping was fine otherwise and the incident at the last did not impact the finishing order. He was not given a hard time after it became apparent that he would not be winning here and was the more tenderly ridden of the front two between the last pair of flights. If he is to meet the winner again then the penalty could see him reverse placings - particularly if a greater test of stamina is required.

Orchestral Rain was making only his second racecourse appearance of any nature but his flat run was full of promise, he was representing a solid pedigree and a capable yard and was very much underestimated in the market. As with his Killarney run where he was a neck behind the winner, he was rather green and somewhat lacking pace at stages but other than being slightly wary approaching the third put in a decent round of jumping and has scope for further improvement. Whether he stays at the yard or moves on remains to be seen but there was plenty of encouragement for the future taken from this run and ought to be very competitive in this kind of company.

Calidus Mirabilis came in with a couple of flat wins under his belt and was representing a Joseph O'Brien yard which has a healthy but not outstanding record in this sphere for its numbers and strength. He was solid in the market and ran a respectable race but he was not the most fluent of jumpers and finished quite tired in the end. He can come on for this effort from a jumping perspective but he may struggle for stamina in the short term on this evidence.

Dazzling Darren was another who tasted success on the flat on multiple occasions and was representing a yard which does very well with its juveniles pound for pound. There were reservations about his pedigree and while his jumping was fine apart from pecking on landing at the sixth, he did weaken quite badly in the end. A recent flat spin discounts any fitness theories although this was his ninth start of the year and fifth post-lockdown and his yard has had a leaner spell than usual so it is possible he could fare better if freshened up.

Little Brother was the money horse having been backed from 14/1 in the morning into 7/2 but he was beaten in the end by almost thirty-five lengths. There were errors at the first and seventh but they were not really enough to end his chances. He did finish ahead of the runner up on a recent flat run which may explain the market support but he did not leave the impression that he was either a complete natural or something with a serious engine.

Differentiate was the second of the Gavin Cromwell runners and was the least fancied of the pair on account of being nearly a stone inferior on the flat. Nevertheless, his jumping was fine and did keep on towards the end in his own time. While there is not much to this run at face value, it was not a bad introduction and a stiffer test could see him improve ahead of some of his rivals.

Strip Light's fate was effectively sealed at the start where he made a terrible mistake at the first and was not much better at the second. He was never able to improve from midfield and would need to show more fluency before he can be considered with much enthusiasm.

A Mere Bagatelle had plenty of use made of him and jumped well enough for the most part before losing his position and making some tired mistakes. Not a run devoid of promise considering it was his first outing for nearly eleven months and may do better if held up in the future.

Belgoprince jumped off very slowly and made errors more in keeping with a horse without experience rather than one without the physical attributes. He had very little use made of him and is probably capable of much better in time.

Runcible's profile did not really entitle her to make much of an impression beforehand and she ran accordingly.

Lady Kapalua was the only unraced horse in the field and ran like it. Does not have the worst pedigree but probably needs a few more runs before her ability can be properly gauged.
 
Cartmel, which is usually a village fair with a racecourse built around it, will this Friday simply be a racecourse as it hosts the sixth juvenile hurdle of the season. Although such races at the track have been by useful types such as Burnt Imp, Vosne Romanee and most notably Countrywide Flame, the quality of the fields is usually below average. However, this year could be an exception with three newcomers carrying flat ratings exceeding 75, making it perhaps the strongest race on paper. The race also draws together three horses with jumping experience who have all won prize money without looking especially threatening. Cartmel is one of the easier tracks in the country although this is rather contradicted by the average winning DI since 2011/12 being 1.21 mean and 1.14 median. However, taking the records back to 1990 brings the mean up to a ludicrous 2.48 although this is largely due to some wild outliers. The figures can be manipulated in any given way but in general terms, the stamina required to win a juvenile, particularly on the predicted soft ground, is still relevant albeit not as pronounced as at most other venues.

Debt Of Honour bg N Mulholland f5-0-0 (52) 51 j2-0-0 (-) 84
Kyllachy (Nayef){7}(1.91) 3/1 Architrave 1st Market Rasen Juvenile Hurdle 2010
Debt Of Honour brings with him the most hurdling experience in the shape of two outings. His first outing at Newton Abbot saw him make several shapes over his hurdles, few of them conducive to negotiating them efficiently. The jumping did improve when he was next seen at Bangor which may have been due to the blinkers which he retains for this race. Neil Mulholland is a trainer worthy of respect in this discipline but his pedigree less so with Kyllachy still winless from his progeny's forty-six outings. There are also stamina concerns and even if they are mitigated by Cartmel's characteristics, there still remains the issue of his overall standard of form both on the flat and the jumps.

Fraterculus chg Oliver Greenall f3-0-1 (79) 76
Teofilo (Anabaa){5-f}(1.08) 6/7 Optimus Prime 2nd Novice Chase, Punchestown 2018
Unraced as a two year old, Fraterculus had three starts on the flat in Ireland for Jim Bolger in June. The level of form across all three outings, which came over ten furlongs, was of a broadly similar standard and would justify a rating in the seventies without quite reaching his official mark of 79. His efforts include a Leopardstown maiden where he plugged on to finish just over five lengths behind subsequent listed race runner up Numen and was not enjoying the kickback when finishing last at the Curragh last time. He has worn cheekpieces on his last two outings which have now been left off following a gelding operation. Teofilo horses have a good record in juvenile hurdles and are above average by all metrics and similar sentiments apply to Anabaa as a damsire. Oliver Greenall also has a fine record in these events and has had a couple of winners recently. There can be reservations over his predominantly American oriented flat pedigree (his third dam won the 1993 Kentucky Oaks) and his greenness, previous use of headgear, freshly gelded state and unfamiliarity with soft ground are not easy to ignore but he otherwise has a respectable profile.

Global Agreement chg Milton Harris f11-0-2 (56) 64
Mayson (Royal Applause){10-a}(2.33) 2/1 Daring Bid 1st Novices' Hurdle, Bangor 1999
With eleven starts to his name, Global Agreement is the most experienced of this and with his peak efforts being largely consistent throughout would, by that token, also be the most exposed. While he was initially rated 66, his most recent mark of 58 is more accurate and a little kinder. He is versatile in terms of ground conditions and has shaped as though he should get this trip. Mayson has only had the one juvenile this far and the Invincible Spirit can be hit and miss however Royal Applause does not have a positive bearing in this division. Milton Harris has one winner from three but that is a small sample size and he has not had a winner since coming out of lockdown.

Lairig Ghru bg Micky Hammond 3-0-2 (69) 70 Pon 6gs Mdn 26/9/19
Canford Cliffs (Diktat){21-a}(1.00) 3/1 Whitby Jet 1st Novices Hurdle, Southwell 1980
Micky Hammond runs two here and although the more experienced Jonjo O'Neill Jr takes the mount on Lairig Ghru, this will be the first instance of a partnership between the jocket and trainer and the stablemate retains his rider from last time. Lairig Ghru has yet to race in 2020 but had three runs over six furlongs last autumn and was placed on his first two outings at Pontefract and Newcastle. He came up against some reasonable sorts but the overall quality of his form could not be rated far beyond the mid sixties. The record of his sire is respectable in this division but while the trip here could be within his compass, he has a sprinter heavy damline. Furthermore, he would still have some ground to find with a few of these on form, his yard is not in the best form and he also has an absence to overcome.

Mick bg M Hammond f6-0-1 (59) 63 j1-0-0 (-) 85
Makfi (Pivotal){6-d}(1.40) 2/1 Sayar 1st Joe Mac Novice Hurdle (G3), Tipperary 2017
An inconsistent maiden on the flat, Mick made a respectable debut effort at Market Rasen where after finding himself outpaced, was able to plug on for a distant third. His jumping could have been better but he would be entitled to improve with experience in that regard. Nevertheless, like his stablemate, he is still some way behind these on form and it is not guaranteed that he will even match that effort, particularly at a track like Cartmel.

Naizagai bg Fergal O'Brien f5-0-4 (76) 78
Dark Angel (Galileo){9-b}(0.90) 3/1 Oxymeron 1st Handicap Hurdle, Lingfield 1990
Since the 2011/12 season, Fergal O'Brien has had just one win with juvenile hurdlers from forty-two attempts. However, his spell of tremendous recent form continued today at Newton Abbot with two winners, a runner up, and most importantly, his juvenile hurdler completely exceeding expectations held for him. In Naizagai, he has a juvenile with much more compelling flat form than Billy The Squid. While still a maiden after five starts for Roger Varian, he was placed on all bar one of those runs with the disappointment coming on his return after a layoff and a gelding operation. His best run came in a Newmarket novice stakes last November where he finished second among three future winners in good company. His latest run was slightly less encouraging where he lost his lead in the straight and finished third behind two who were beaten on their next outings. Nevertheless, that form would still entitle him to a mark in the mid seventies and although his wearing cheekpieces and hanging slightly are not ideal, he does not appear to be ungenuine. He was sold out of Roger Varian's yard for 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale and graduates of the Varian yard have a healthy winner to runner strike rate with half of those winners selling for less than Naizagai's price. Dark Angel's record with juveniles is no better than average although he has produced Silver Streak and Guitar Pete and Galileo has a fine record as a damsire in this division.

Peat Moss bg N Hawke f4-0-1 (50) 50
Fracas (Dalakhani){14-c}(0.71) 4/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle Leopardstown 1992
Peat Moss did not start any shorter than 200/1 on his first three flat starts but a better effort could be expected and was delivered on his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot. He suffered interference at a couple of jumps there and missed out a flight after which he became outpaced but his jumping was mostly acceptable. He gave the impression that a stiffer task would suit and this sentiment was reiterated on a recent flat run where he stayed on too late in a low grade Chepstow handicap over a mile and a half. Peat Moss does have a future over jumps at his own level but will come into his own under more suitable conditions.

To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
To Fly Free had six runs on the flat in France including finishing last of six in a listed race at Bordeaux where the front two would contest Group One contests next time. Her next two runs were not as good, her latest coming when beaten over seven lengths in a Clairefontaine claimer. She was not claimed out of that race, rather she was sold at Arqana for just €6,000. Notwithstanding, David Pipe has bought two other juveniles from the Ludovic Gadbin yard in recent years and both of them - Paricolor and last season's Fred Winter runner up Night Edition - were winners. The pedigree is also encouraging with Soldier Hollow capable of producing juveniles and the damline being inundated with classy French jumpers including Video Tape (3/1), Villez (4/3) and We Have A Dream (4/5). To Fly Free could prove an astute purchase although like others at her yard with similar profiles, she may be better with a run or two under her belt.

Strong prospects
1. Naizagai
Reasonable prospects
2. Fraterculus
3. To Fly Free
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Lairig Ghru
5. Mick
6. Peat Moss
7. Debt Of Honour
8. Global Agreement
 
Hiconic made it four on the bounce at Newton Abbot yesterday in a race where there were several reasons to question the form. While there were no bad luck stories, a couple of these got very worked up, some of the jumping was poor and the first five, which contained a couple of outsiders, were covered by less than nine lengths. The field also lost some of its strength in depth when Highlander Madrik was taken out in the morning. There were no real market moves of note and the winning time was almost identical to that posted by the winner on her debut a month earlier.

Hiconic is nothing but admirable and apart from being a bit distracted at the fourth and at two out, her jumping here was as polished as ever. However, this was the hardest she had to work for a win and while the penalties obviously added to the difficulties, it was not her best performance when accounting for the fact that the third and fourth were able to finish as close as they did despite error strewn rounds. She also showed greenness and a hint of temperament when momentarily trying to run out at the paddock bend. Hiconic is still the leading juvenile seen out this season but this was around half a stone below her best. It is possible that she is not especially suited by Newton Abbot but the penalties are mounting up and she could be vulnerable when she is next seen.

Balko Saint was making his debut for the Williams yard who have a good record with unraced horses, even if they tend to improve with experience. Being a Balko gelding out of a Saint Des Saints mare, he can be considered more a prospect for the future than for sharp juvenile hurdles and that is what played out here. His jumping was very good for the first part of the race although when the tempo increased, he began to make mistakes as he found himself outpaced. Nevertheless, he still acquitted himself well in the circumstances and should have a future in the game.

Talking About You has a decent pedigree for juvenile hurdling and had been improving on the flat albeit at a modest level. However, she was giving all manner of grief at the start and look for a moment as though she would be withdrawn. She did consent to set off but took a keen hold, wandered into most of her jumps before negotiating them awkwardly. That she would still manage to plug on for third brings the form into disrepute but it also shows her potential if she can learn how to settle and jump.

Billy The Squid was woeful on his debut and his jumping was not substantially better here. He looked as though he was treading water towards the end of the back straight and that another tailed off finish was on the cards. Nevertheless, he also kept on to finish just six and a half lengths behind the winner. This represents a career best effort by a considerable margin and while the blinkers may have worked the oracle, the form can only be treated with suspicion until he can confirm that this performance was not a fluke.

Pink Jazz, the stablemate of Talking About You, was utterly drenched in sweat and was keen in the early stages. He made mistakes which were less prevalent on his debut and while he showed pace in the early stages would eventually fade into fifth. He is capable of better than this but there is no assurance that he might deliver next time out.

Edebez did not jump badly but was beaten further by the winner on this occasion than when they met at the track a month earlier. He almost certainly does not have the stamina for hurdling if he can not see out the distance at Newton Abbot.

Fiach Stoney was beaten fifty-two lengths at Stratford on his debut and put in another keen and error strewn round before pulling up here.
 
Back
Top