Along with the weekend's Irish races and yesterday's race at Ludlow, there was also a slight backlog of handicap performances and a race from Compiegne to review. This will be clear right now which leaves the path clear for a preview of Saturday's exciting little race at Chepstow which will hopefully be posted by tomorrow morning.
Bannister 29/9/2020 Compiegne 3400m Heavy
https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2020-09-29/R3/C2
Since winning a moderate race at Southwell, Bannister's handicap rating has risen to an eye-watering 135. This was due to his finishing second at Compiegne at the end of September. The race, which was a fairly standard conditions event, was worth €18,240 to the winner (£16,653 on the day). This is over four times the amount Bannister earned for winning at Southwell, over 50% more than what Soldier On Parade collected in the season's most valuable juvenile to date and still exceeds the prize for the listed Wensleydale Hurdle set for the end of this month. Quite why the UK and Irish bookmakers are allowed to absolutely fleece the sport with impunity is a very unfortunate mystery.
Despite the relatively high level of prizemoney, Compiegne's contest was only of a fair standard without any pretentions of attracting the cream of France's crop. Favourite Harrisburg was the only other winner in the field after comprehensively taking a small race at Vichy. Piriac has form with recent imports Nassalam and Saint Sam but lost his chance here when all but falling two out. The winner Martadore was a near eleven length fifth to Raffles Face on his latest start at Auteuil in June. A race which also contained subsequent winning Auteuil chasers Hades and Losange Vert.
In the race itself, Bannister was fairly keen early and took up the running approaching the first. By the second, he was already a dozen lengths clear and more than doubled that advantage by the third. He was slightly slow over the fourth but was decent enough over the next two. Bannister began to tire in the back and this was reflected in his jumping as he went through the fourth last hurdle. Nevertheless, he still had a clear lead entering the straight and was still just in front when making a tired jump at the last. Headed within the final two hundred metres, he still battled on bravely and would only be beaten by half a length. Precisely what this form is worth is difficult to gauge. Racing Post gave him an RPR of 100 while the BHA put him up to 135 so the most accurate figure likely lies somewhere in between. Martador's Auteuil race is working out fairly well although he was coming back off his summer break and nothing out of that contest has an official French rating. This was clearly a career best effort from Bannister but it is difficult to imagine that he has improved by over two stone from Southwell so a mark in the mid 120s might have to suffice before he is again tested against UK horses.
123
Dragon Man 30/9/2020 Huntingdon
Dragon Man's starting price of 150/1 was a fair reflection of his chances beforehand as he was very unfavourably treated at the weights. After starting in midfield, he was soon racing up with the leaders on the outside but he was very quickly dropped at the seventh and was soon pulled up. To be fair to him, while he slightly dived at the third, clipped the fourth and jumped his last very sloppily, showed some fair hurdling. He might do better over shorter but there was still very little encouragement from a form perspective.
0
GOWRAN PARK 3/10/2020
Preview review
With the withdrawal of Quilixios, the race was a fairly straightforward one to assess. Duffle Coat was clearly superior to his rivals, Little Brother ran respectably with an uncontested lead, Made In Pimlico confirmed his Listowel performance, Waterville Lady did not jump well and Meknas matched his low expectations. There is not a great deal to reflect upon.
Race review
Quilixios's withdrawal deprived this contest of most of its interest but it was still good to see Duffle Coat supplement the impression he made on his debut. The runner-up and the third essentially reproduced their Listowel efforts so the form should be reliable. There were a couple of minor mid-air collisions in the early stages but nothing so drastic as to affect the outcome.
Duffle Coat made a good impression when winning on his racecourse debut at Punchestown and confirmed that he is an above average sort here. Prior to reaching the straight, his jumping was good and at times, beautiful. He made a couple of errors at the final two flights but those can be attributed to the shifting through the gears that would be less prevalent in a more truly run race. He was a little green when shaken up on the approach to the last but was otherwise a good traveller and his superiority was far greater than the winning margin. Strictly on form, this was a slight regression but he would almost certainly have ran to a better mark in a better race. There is a lot to like about Duffle Coat and though the season is still in its embryonic phase, he has the most potential of those seen thus far. After the race, Gordon Elliott suggested either a winners of two at Punchestown or Down Royal, or even the Wensleydale as his next target.
120
Made In Pimlico had shown only modest form on the flat as a two-year-old and was pulled up quickly halfway through his hurdling debut at Tipperary. However, at Listowel he surpassed anything he had previously achieved to finish a respectable fourth behind Longclaw. While there was the danger of that effort being a fluke, he was inexplicably sent off at odds of 50/1 here. Despite getting slightly close to a few, his jumping was the second best in the field and he travelled well throughout. He had to be switched out wide in the straight before getting a clear run after the last but while he was never catching the winner, he ran on strongly to be a decisive runner-up. He has shown enough to win a moderate contest over hurdles and with his rekindled enthusiasm and an appreciation of a trip, his flat rating of 40 could be very lenient in something like a ten furlong handicap.
110
Little Brother has now had four starts over hurdles and his jumping has not really improved since his debut. He is best setting his own gallop on an easy circuit and given that is what he had here, this is probably the ceiling of his ability. He will likely continue to struggle under the penalty he acquired when winning at Ballinrobe and appears to require fairly specific conditions. Any further progression will have to come from more fluent hurdling.
115
Meknas left the Sir Michael Stoute yard for 7,000 guineas before seeing a racecourse and his profile is not particularly appealing in this discipline. He was always in rear and was close at all but one of his hurdles before finishing tired and completely tailed off. He can build on this performance but the foundations are very low.
18
Waterville Lady came into the race with the best flat form, albeit at a moderate level, but did not impress either before or following her unseating early on at Listowel. Once again, her jumping was very poor here as she was either hesitant, low, big or close over her hurdles and dived both left and right at a couple of them. When she clipped the top of the last before stumbling on landing, she was already held in fourth. There is little encouragement for the discipline on her sirelines so a successful future over hurdles looks unlikely. Nevertheless, it is possible to be optimistic if one considers that the yard is not in the best form and Waterville Lady may do better on softer ground.
90
KILLARNEY 5/10/2020
Preview review
Due to my spending the weekend with my fun friend, it was deemed best to not have the laptop eat into the quality time. As such, the preview took the form of a prospects list effectively drawn from memory based on what I had previously written about the participants. In the absence of Crassus, the top three prospects filled first, second and fourth positions in a slightly different order. On Guard had been previewed in a sales post where reticence about his pedigree and attitude was abound along with the difficulties of improving ex-John Gosden horses. Varna Gold has been deemed to be a capable animal in the sphere but still had inconsistencies to overcome. At War jumps well from the front but the more patient tactics employed were probably detrimental to his fluency. Belgoprince had yet to be seen to best effect, Londonofficecallin did not have an encouraging profile and Thekeyisnottopanic has an amusing name. It is impossible to assuage quite how I might have previewed the race with more time and information at hand but the key elements pertinent to the race had already been raised which is quite pleasing.
Race review
Prior to Monday's race, Killarney had hosted eight three-year-old hurdles since 2008. All of them took place in late August so direct trends were not available for this particular contest. Nevertheless, races at Killarney had high average winning DIs and moderate seasonal RPRs making them fairly undemanding in terms of both class and stamina. Monday's race being a maiden was indicative of the race's overall quality and the absence of Crassus and the underperformance of the 86 rated On Guard emphasised the lack of strength in depth. The pace was fairly steady and the winning time was slower than both the mares maiden and the low grade handicap later on the card. Nevertheless, the winner had shown enough to take a race of this nature and the front three all had fair form over hurdles so the form does look reasonably sound.
Varna Gold had ran three times over hurdles going into this race and he put that experience to good use. While his debut effort was fairly tepid, he was better on his next start when left in a distant second at Down Royal and may have finished third on his latest outing at Punchestown but for falling at the last. His jumping had improved with each outing and apart from getting slightly close to the fifth and sixth, put in much the cleanest round here. Always racing handily, he joined the leader approaching three out and with a succession of smooth leaps, he eased into an unassailable lead and was under no firmer instruction than a shake of the reins. His first win in fifteen starts, this was also his best performance from a form perspective. While Varna Gold was prone to inconsistency on the flat, he appears to be enjoying himself in his new vocation and this victory is very much a well earned one. Through collateral form, he would likely have found Crassus a bridge too far and good though this performance was, it was not the strongest contest and he could find things more difficult under a penalty.
115
At War is a half-brother to the useful Baltimore Rock and was rated as high as 76 while racing on the flat at up to a mile. Although he was well beaten on his hurdles debut at Punchestown, he jumped well for a newcomer and rather confirmed his potential when third to Longclaw at Listowel two weeks ago. However, running in a first time hood, his fluency was undermined by a more restrained ride which saw him pull hard early and miss a few of his hurdles. He did not appear to finish too tired and may benefit from a return to more positive tactics in the future. This was another fair effort and he can be competitive at this level in the right conditions.
104
Belgoprince had winning flat form in the French provinces and a profile which suggests he can do well as a hurdler. However, his hurdling debut at Roscommon, laden with poor jumping and a lethargic ride, roused an unhealthy scepticism and similar sentiments were engendered next time at Ballinrobe. Following a lacklustre run at the Curragh, Belgoprince returned to hurdling with another questionable effort. While he made a very clumsy error at the first, his jumping did improve and was travelling strongly turning for home. However, after an untidy leap three out, he was pulled from a clear position to jump among a tight bunch at the penultimate flight. From there, he was pulled out of a gap in order to get a more direct view of the runner-up's hind quarters before jumping out of his jockey's hands at the last. This performance is worth a mark in the low 100s on form, but deserves an official rating of at least 150.
103+?
On Guard cost connections 52,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale and his win at Yarmouth in June was the standout piece of flat form in this field. However, his temperament saw him finish tailed off in the Queen's Vase and he was very fresh in the first half of this contest. He wandered into most of his early hurdles and almost refused at the second. While he was able to settle eventually, he was a tired horse by the end of the race. Although Invincible Spirit is not a particularly successful sire in the division, there are some decent jumpers on the damline. However, for all the class that ex-John Gosden horses can bring to the sphere, it is rare that much of it is carried over hurdles and it is notoriously difficult for improvement to be extracted from these types. On Guard showed enough promise to suggest he can be competitive at this level if he becomes more fluent but he would be breaking a mould if he is to be much better than average in this discipline.
96
Londonofficecallin had been off the track since last August prior to making his hurdling debut here. His pedigree is not an obvious one for the discipline nor is his trainer especially prolific in the sphere. Nevertheless, while he was close to the first couple of hurdles and untidy at the last, his jumping was reasonable and he kept on well enough to finish a twenty length fifth. This effort was not devoid of promise but he still needs to improve before he is competitive at this level.
93
Boom Boom Boom had only moderate form to show for four runs on the flat with Stuart Williams and was sold for 6,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. His new trainer's record in the sphere is below average but he does get winners and Boom Boom Boom's dam is a half-sister to Cubomania. His jumping was big and he was also close and steady at several of these but he was not beaten out of sight. He has fair way to progress if he is to be a threat in ordinary company but there is some scope for improvement with experience.
89
Toughari brought a rating of just 53 after six runs on the flat but his trainer has a decent record with juvenile hurdlers. He did not jump with any real fluency on his hurdling debut however, and is another with plenty to find for the time being.
87
Thekeyisnottopanic had shown little in three flat outings and though his jumping was fine on his hurdles debut at Tipperary in August, it was less fluent here. He did finish closer to the winner on this occasion but offered little immediate promise.
62
Butterfly Lounge showed only moderate promise at Redcar over six furlongs for Richard Fahey back in June and was well beaten over the same trip at Ayr in August. She jumped slowly on her first run in Ireland and was detached with a circuit to go before finishing tailed off.
0
LUDLOW 7/10/2020
Preview review
Orchestral Rain's win marked the first winning top prospect in the UK since the seventh of August which is pretty neat. The race was a trappy affair with several horses looking like potential winners and Orchestral Rain looking unconvincing until asserting after the last. Nevertheless, an ugly win is still a win. Fraterculus had the potential to run as he did and has matured somewhat since last seen. Current was noted as a fair jumper with a hint of speed but her performance was still completely unexpected. Theocrat ran with credit and the newcomers had patchy profiles, although while Nuriel's jumping was certainly safe, it was not necessarily good.
Race review
Traditionally a relatively useful contest, this year's renewal was built more on promise than on substance. While several of these have the potential to win races, they were very much unfurnished in their nature and would need to develop both their aptitude and attributes. All of the runners made errors and with the winning time over five seconds slower than the Class 4 handicap, the pace was not a thorough one. Orchestral Rain's jumping was his poorest seen to date and the fact that Current led briefly after the last casts further doubt on the reliability of the form.
Orchestral Rain was keen early, steadied into the first, got in close to the next three and was awkward at all of the hurdles in the straight. He never really travelled and drifted to 23/1 in running yet was able to prevail on the run-in and was ultimately a decisive winner. He had shaped like more of a stayer on his first two starts but finishing tired at Fontwell while taking this off a modest gallop suggests this perspective should be reassessed. This was only his fourth racecourse appearance having making his debut in mid-July so he would still be short of the finished article. The performance does not match his Roscommon debut and while he can progress from here, his capacity is beginning to look more limited.
104
Fraterculus had shown hints of promise on his first three starts over hurdles although his efforts were hindered by his greenness. However, he put up a much more assured performance from the front here and he travelled and jumped as well as ever. While he was slightly awkward at the first, he settled into a good rhythm until pecking on landing three out. Fraterculus composed himself at the penultimate flight but was untidy over the last and slipped slightly on landing. This error probably did not cost him the race as he had ample opportunity to seize the initiative approaching the last and the winner was pulling away even after he regained his stride on the run to the line. Notwithstanding, this was his best effort over hurdles to date and he is capable of winning a moderate race if he maintains this improvement.
103
Current had been beaten over forty lengths at both Bangor and Market Rasen and while she had shown some aptitude and pace, looked nothing like a horse who could be competitive in any open company. However, while she was slow at a few of these and looked like getting dropped early on, she was also good over the third and sixth and made sufficient headway to lead briefly over the last. It was only there that her lack of stamina told but she was still able to hold on to third place. The minimum trip on good to firm is probably as sharp as it will get for juvenile hurdlers before the spring and Current would be unlikely to find conditions as favourable as these any time soon. Nevertheless, this shows that she does have some amount of ability.
94
Theocrat is bred to potentially be better over hurdles than on the flat and is in the right hands to accomplish that goal. He was keen early on and was big at the third while being slow at the sixth. Nevertheless, he showed enough to build on and as he was rather one paced on the run in, should be able to leave this behind as he develops into his frame.
100
Thunder King was the only previous winner in this field courtesy of a win in a Windsor handicap at the end of July. Although he was beaten twenty lengths on his jumps debut at Southwell, it was still an effort of some potential and he was able to build on that yesterday by virtue of his being more competitive. He was rather messy at a few of his jumps however and his resolve is still up for debate so while he has some ability, he is not an obvious winner in waiting.
97
Derek Le Grand's best flat form entitled him to respect in this company and his pedigree makes some appeal. Starting at 11/2 having been 33/1 the previous evening made him the best backed horse in the field but he was diving awkwardly to his right from the outset and finished tailed off.
74
Nuriel was making his racecourse debut and there were some positives in his pedigree. However, his wind had already been done and while he was 9/1 in the morning, had drifted to 40/1 at the off. Held up in the rear, he was very cautious over his hurdles and was never able to get into the contest. While he looks assured of a clear round wherever he goes next, he needs more experience before his abilities can be properly assessed.
73
Cold War Steve had shown little this season in three flat handicaps and while there is potential in his pedigree, he was completely unfancied in the market. Prominent early, he wandered into the third flight and was slow over the last couple in the back before finishing tired.
62
Bam Bam was another making his racecourse debut and was the more prominent debutant in the market. However, after steadying and stumbling at the first, was never out of the rear and was the first to get detached before pulling up entering the straight.
0
Peat Moss 10/7/2020 Ludlow
His yard does well with juveniles in handicaps and Peat Moss was vying for favouritism in the market before the off. However, the slow early pace did little to help him settle as he was making mistakes early on and getting reminders with a lap to go. Even though the pace picked up shortly after the first, Peat Moss was never travelling and although he moved with some purpose turning for home, was soon a beaten horse. He is capable of better and while this was disappointing, the muddling early gallop is a reasonable excuse for the time being. If his mark drops as a result then he will be interesting in a more suitable race.
94
