Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

I don’t know what Le Magnifique must show at home but he’s only had four runs, including this first time over jumps, and he’s started favourite every time. The best he’s managed is a 28 length third. And he had Brian Hughes booked for today as well. Questions to answer indeed!

It wasn't an egg and spoon race in Germany either as two of the runners ended up running in their derby. Perhaps a horse whisperer like Monty Roberts might have the answers to those questions...
 
It's ironic to see the late and greatly missed Oliver Brady in that list, when one of the incidents he is most associated with was Ebadiyan running out at the second last in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle with the race apparently at its mercy.
 
Tomorrow’s contest at Market Rasen is traditionally the strongest in the division before October. The corresponding race was a seller in 2003 won by Quick who was bought in for 3,600 guineas ahead of a career which saw him place at the Cheltenham festival. With the exception of 2005, it has since been a Class 2 contest and carries a very respectable roll call. Katchit in 2006 was the most notorious winner when he overcame 4/9 favourite Is It Me before winning the Triumph and the Champion Hurdle. Other good winners include Barizan, Indian Groom, Leoncavallo, Royal Irish Hussar and Unanimite while Cliffs Of Dover, Franchoek, Fox Norton and Vosne Romanee finished placed in this contest before moving on to better things. This year's renewal looks well up to scratch as it features the UK's two highest rated juveniles to date - top three if the sex allowance is taken into consideration. Market Rasen offers one of the stiffer stamina tests for juvenile hurdlers and the emphasis on same is even greater for this particular race. The average winning DIs are 0.97 mean and 1.00 median, significantly lower than those for the average participant which stand at 1.58 and 1.40 respectively. In terms of completion rates, the Lincolnshire venue is ranked fortieth of the sixty-three racecourses used for juvenile hurdle races since 2009/10 but ranked twenty-fifth for fallers and unseats so while the track takes some getting, it is fairer from a jumping perspective. Four of tomorrow’s participants have led in hurdle races this season so a solid gallop looks likely despite the small field size.

Soldier On Parade bg A Murphy f8-0-1 (65) 68 j3-2-1 (117) 112 116
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
The highest rated gelded juvenile hurdler in the UK, Soldier On Parade has not been seen in public since completing a double at this venue nearly six weeks ago. On the basis of his debut second at Bangor behind Hiconic, he was entitled to win the first leg of the double and he did so comfortably from a field which has not since achieved a great deal. He had to work harder to earn his latest victory but that did look a stronger contest beforehand and the third and the fifth have since won races of their own. A fair and consistent type on the flat, Soldier On Parade has shown himself to be better over hurdles and while his jumping is not always fluent, it has been enough to put his rivals under the cosh. He also has a useful turn of foot which he employs half a mile from home to telling effect. This acceleration was also seen at Bangor on his but it was not enough to fend off Hiconic and he is now a pound worse off at the weights. Soldier On Parade does have the experience around Market Rasen and his trainer is still in decent form. There is no obvious reason for him to reverse placings with Hiconic and there will be competition for the lead but he should be able to give a solid account of himself.

Hiconic bf A Hales f8-0-3 (58) 60 j4-4-0 (128) 115 121
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Hi Note finished second in the 2011 edition of this contest and her daughter bids to go one better in tomorrow's renewal. Hiconic comes into the race with a perfect four from four record in hurdle races and she has impressed in her jumping and manner of victories. She has not exactly been the embodiment of perfection as she does have a tendency to wander on occasion and her latest win at Newton Abbot was a slight regression on her Stratford form. Nevertheless, Newton Abbot is probably not a course which plays to her strengths and she is very intelligent whenever she does make an error. Hiconic already has victories over her two main rivals and as well as being weighted to maintain that superiority, she also holds Soldier On Parade on his Market Rasen win through Bannister and Kings Creek. She was a beaten favourite when going down by half a length in a Lingfield handicap two weeks ago but she is better over hurdles and she will be fit for that outing. If she runs to her best, she has upwards of ten pounds on her rivals and will be happy to sit off a lead that a couple of these are likely to present.

Poker Master bg Philip McBride f2-0-0 (-) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 66 77
Sepoy (Mastercraftsman){4-i}(3.00) 3/3 Hipsters 1st Prix Go Ahead (L), Auteuil 2019
Poker Master had achieved little in two flat outings at Newmarket or Wolverhampton and was sent off at 66/1 for his hurdles bow at Fontwell. He is related to some capable stayers and hurdlers on the damline and damsire Mastercraftsman is one of the best stallions in the sphere, although Sepoy is still without a winner from forty hurdles runs. Poker Master's jumping was decent enough on his debut but he was beaten over thirty lengths by Talking About You and while he could be competitive in moderate company, this standard of competition looks well beyond him.

Utopian Lad bg David Loughnane f11-0-5 (64) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 58 54
Society Rock (Amadeus Wolf){1-p}(2.43) 2/1 Go Figure 1st Handicap Hurdle (94), Perth 2007
Finishing second or third in his last eight runs on the flat, Utopian Lad came into his debut at Uttoxeter with a consistent profile and that standard of form is as good as anything in this field from that sphere. However, while he does not appear to be ungenuine, he has shown signs of greenness which manifested dramatically at the Staffordshire venue. He wandered slightly into the first but was much wilder approaching the second and was lit up for a while afterwards. His jumping did improve, he was clever at the sixth and he still had the lead turning in. However, he was a spent force by that stage and his jumping deteriorated rapidly. He can count decent jumpers in his pedigree (4/4 Gardens Of Babylon, 5/3 Mister McGoldrick, 5/3 Modicum) and the yard won a juvenile hurdle last season at this venue with Yellow Tiger. There was enough on his debut run to suggest he can do better but that was one of the poorest races staged this season thus he will do very well to get competitive in this company.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j3-1-2 (103) 95 105
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
Talking About You improved, albeit to a moderate level, when second in a claimer on her last start on the flat for Mick Channon and her sirelines are very apt for success in the division. However, she was an absolute nightmare during the preliminaries ahead of her hurdling debut behind Hiconic at Newton Abbot (eighteen pounds worse here) and jumped sloppily throughout. It is to her credit she finished five lengths third and she improved again next time at Sedgefield where she was mounted at the last possible moment. Her jumping still left much to be desired and her wandering on the run-in cost her the chance to capitalise on her drifting rivals. Nevertheless, she was able to fulfil much of her potential last time at Fontwell where she was allowed to lead and with her mostly proficient jumping, essentially had the race won before leaving the back straight. She was an emphatic winner although she did stop quickly when eased close to the finish which suggests that there was not a great deal left in reserve. Notwithstanding, this was by far a career best effort and she could improve further now that connections will have a better idea of her optimal tactics although she may struggle to get an uncontested lead in this field.

Outstanding prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Soldier On Parade
3. Talking About You
Moderate prospects
4. Utopian Lad
Negligible prospects
5. Poker Master

It's ironic to see the late and greatly missed Oliver Brady in that list, when one of the incidents he is most associated with was Ebadiyan running out at the second last in the 2009 Triumph Hurdle with the race apparently at its mercy.

Ebadiyan was also carried out on his debut before winning on his third start over hurdles just eight days later, and scoring again in a graded race the following weekend. Ferdy Murphy is another lost trainer who appears high on the list. I doubt either of these men had the chance to bequeath even a fraction of what they knew about racehorses prior to their passing.
 
Preview review
By giving Hiconic outstanding prospects, anything but a win would have been an overestimation. While I mentioned in her Triumph Hurdle assessment that she had likely hit a plateau, I did not account for the possibility that Soldier On Parade could further improve which proved to be the case. Her regression at Newton Abbot and the tendencies she had shown both there and at Lingfield were also given less consideration than were due. Notwithstanding, apart from the reversal of the first two, the field finished as expected.

Race review
Today's race looked the strongest of the season beforehand and it produced the outstanding performance seen to date. There was a strong pace set although the winning time was slower than than the two other races ran at the distance on the card. Nevertheless, a rudimentary assessment of the early pace put it in line with that set in the feature handicap and accounting for weight for age, the winner posted a good and solid time for the class. While Hiconic veered at the start of the race, it was not enough to affect the result and with the field finishing the way they did, there is little reason to question the reliability of the form.

Solider On Parade won two races at this venue prior to a six week break and he came back better than ever. Electing to track the leader rather than make the running himself, he travelled well with the pace turning for home and ran on strongly when given firm encouragement to win his race. His hurdling is not of the highest standard but it is enough for him at this level and apart from steadying slightly into the first, he put in a clean round here. He has earned the right to take in a race like the Wensleydale although there looks to be a strong crop of recruits for the division this season so he may begin to struggle as the better types begin to appear. Nevertheless, this was still the best performance seen this season and he is due full credit for what he achieved this afternoon. 132

Hiconic had been a revelation over the summer but her winning run came to an end as she echoed her dam by finishing second in this race. Her best performance was when she won at Stratford giving seven pounds and an eight length beating to subsequent winner Bannister. She was less impressive on her latest win at Newton Abbot where she was less straightforward than usual and there were questionable elements to her recent outing on the flat at Lingfield. Today she veered as the tapes flew up and was never travelling as well as she can at her best. Her hurdling was not as good either as she got in close to the first two and was untidy at the fifth before completing her round with a couple of tired jumps. This effort was much more in line with her performance at Newton Abbot than at Stratford. Her four wins disqualify her from ordinary races and as her rating of 128 looks steep, she might be difficult to place from hereon. There is the Fillies' Juvenile at Aintree's Becher meeting for which she will be unpenalised as well as a mares' novice at Taunton at the end of December where she can receive a weight allowance along with several more in the new year. If those such races are poorly subscribed then she may be able to collect some black type but regardless of what happens next, she has still been a cracking horse this summer. 114

Talking About You has been known to give trouble at the start and while she has been better recently, her recalcitrant ways were resumed here. She did set off after being trotted in and soon set a brisk gallop while being closely followed by the winner. Her hurdling was not terrible but she did get in very close to the second and while she stood off at the fourth, her jumping deteriorated as she tired markedly towards the end. Talking About You does not appear to have the stamina for much beyond the minimum trip but she can defy a penalty with an easy lead in a weak contest. If she behaves herself, she is also on a fair mark if connections elect to send her handicapping. 89

Utopian Lad effectively ruined his chances at Uttoxeter when he was lit up after some wayward jumping early on. While he did slightly veer left at the first, he was temperamentally better here even if he was still untidy in his jumping. He is another who finished tired and although this was an improvement on his debut effort, he did not exactly set himself a high marker. There has been enough promise to see him be competitive off a low enough rating but he is unlikely to achieve much in open company for the time being. 84

Poker Master was beaten over thirty lengths by Talking About You at Fontwell but his jumping was respectable if nothing else. However, his jumping was very poor here and after never leaving last position, was virtually pulled up in the end. 48
 
There will be two juvenile hurdles and a handicap featuring a juvenile hurdler on Tuesday.

Sedgefield hosts its second juvenile hurdle of the season on Tuesday and sees the return of a couple of horses who contested the track's first such race at the end of last month. It will also see the first juveniles of the season for trainers Donald McCain and John Quinn who have above average records in this discipline as well as at the County Durham venue. Races at Sedgefield are among the easiest to win in the country from a class perspective but they take some getting nonetheless. Ranked forty-eighth of sixty-three for clear rounds, the track provides a stern jumping test and only Southwell has a lower completion rate in the UK. The field features four horses who achieved flat RPRs exceeding seventy and looks to be a competitive race although unless there is an outstanding winner, it may not have much bearing on future events outside of its class. The ground is currently expected to be good.

Douglas Fir bg Russell Ross f1-0-0 (-) 44 j1-0-0 (-) 26 30
Australia (Danehill Dancer){14-c}(0.75) 2/1 Rocky Wednesday 3rd Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
By Australia and out of a half-sister to a couple of winners, Douglas Fir does not want for encouragement in his pedigree. However, on his return from an eleven month break, he finished completely tailed off at this venue on his first start since leaving Mark Johnson. He was understandably fresh but he also jumped slowly and while he can improve on that run, it still leaves him with an enormous amount to find in this company.

Genever Dragon bg D McCain f10-0-2 (62) 71
Dragon Pulse (Red Clubs){1-w}(1.29) 3/1 Staunch Rival 2nd Handicap Chase (124), Sandown 1995
Genever Dragon ran ten times on the flat for Tom Dascombe without winning. While he finished second in a Newcastle nursery over a mile last November, he has not matched that form in three starts this season. Thirty-four horses have left the Tom Dascombe yard for a juvenile hurdling campaign and six of those won in their new vocation with 42.31% improving for the switch in codes. Four made the short trip to Cholmondeley including Cuban Piece who won a Bangor Maiden in 2011. Donald McCain has a respectable record in the sphere with a well above average 32.95% winners to runners ratio. His improvement rate of 35.09% is less reassuring considering that his charge likely needs to step up on what he has achieved on the flat. Dragon Pulse's strike rate with juvenile hurdlers is just 2.86% and while the granddam was a half-sister to the decent Staunch Rival, the only other jumper in the immediate damline was Tsaroxy who was winless in four moderate outings. The yard has sent four winners and six seconds to Sedgefield from seventeen but there are others in the field with more substantial profiles.

Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j2-0-0 (102) 95 103
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Hcp Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Kings Creek has the most hurdling experience in the field having twice finished fourth in the discipline for Alan King. He was beaten over fourteen lengths by Hiconic at Stratford but finished closer to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen in mid-August. He jumped fine on his debut but was not as clean when going a steadier pace in the early stages last time. This suggests that he is a better hurdler when going a sound gallop but the downside is that he does not look a resolute stayer. He has since joined Iain Jardine after fetching £12,500 at Goffs' UK September sale. The yard has had two winning juveniles from fourteen but while Kings Creek can hold his own in moderate company, he is not an obvious improver and his lack of stamina will make him vulnerable here.

Magna Moralia grg John Quinn f10-2-3 (74) 81
Gregorian (Singspiel){1-h}(0.87) 0.5 Speed Company 1st Handicap Hurdle (119), Chepstow 2019
John Quinn is one of the leading trainers of juvenile hurdlers by all metrics. His winner to runner rate is 40.38% his overall strike rate is 25% and his improvement rate is a very healthy 63.89%. His record in Sedgefield juveniles is also impressive with four winners and a second from nine runners. His first juvenile hurdler of the season is set to be dual flat winner Magna Moralia. Magna Moralia's first win came last year in a Beverley median auction stakes on good to firm and he doubled his tally at the beginning of August in an eleven furlong Hamilton handicap on soft ground. There he had to overcome all manner of traffic issues and looked a most unlikely winner but was able to stay on and snatch victory right at the post. The form of that race has worked out well with the next six horses finishing in first or second in either of their next two starts. He has not been able to follow up in two subsequent starts, finishing second of three at Ripon and sixth of nine back at Hamilton where he was held when getting snatched up a furlong out. Gregorian is winless from three juvenile hurdlers but they were all at least a stone inferior to Magna Moralia and his sire Clodovil has a 25% winners to runners rate in the division. Magna Moralia is a half-brother to winning hurdler Speed Company and his damsire has a fair record in the sphere, counting Kasakh Noir and Cracker Factory among his mares' offspring. Magna Moralia sets the standard on flat form and has an appealing profile overall. If there is a caveat, Magna Moralia does not have the most fetching head carriage and while John Quinn's 'clear round' figure of 94.3% is reasonable, it is still the second lowest of the trainers represented in this race. Confidence would be higher but for these factors but he is still an interesting recruit to the sphere.

North Point bg Oliver Greenall f6-0-2 (70) 72
Norse Dancer (Montjeu){19}(0.83) 2/2 Star Maker 130 1st Handicap Hurdle (B,123), Killarney 2019
Winless in six starts on the flat for David Elsworth, North Point finished placed on a couple of occasions and brings an official rating of 70. He joined Oliver Greenall after changing hands for 22,000gns at the Tattersalls Horses-In-Training sale in August. His two runs this season came in a pair of ten furlong handicaps and his tepid efforts saw his mark drop five pounds as a result. Juveniles formerly trained by David Elsworth do not have the most appealing record in the sphere with only two winners from twenty-two runners and an improvement rate of just 13.33%. Oliver Greenall's record of four winners from twenty-one is roughly average but he did have a double yesterday. Furthermore, he is the leading trainer in the UK and Ireland for clear rounds with juvenile hurdlers so there will be little cause for concern with regards to jumping. Norse Dancer has had a couple of winning juveniles although his overall rate is below average and his improvement rate of 10% is also poor. Montjeu's record as a damsire is more appealing however and he is related to winners Snoqualmie Chief and Star Maker. North Point's profile is patchy and as none of the yard's four winners to date in the sphere did so at the first time of asking, he may improve for the experience. Nevertheless, as he is likely to jump and stay, he can not be ruled out entirely.

Sans Logique bg David Pipe f5-1-2 (80.3) j1-0-0 (-) 96 104
Toronado (Whipper){22}(0.75) 0.5 No Thanks 6th Novices Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2020
After finishing second in a Vichy claimer for Fabrice Vermeulen, Sans Logique changed hands for €15,001 ahead of his debut at this course last month. Sent off the 11/10 favourite, he made much of the running but while he increased the tempo in the back straight, was never able to burn off his rivals and looked in trouble with half a mile left to race. He kept on for fourth and the subsequent form of that race is reasonable with the winner running with credit in a handicap and the runner-up taking a race at Fontwell. Sans Logique is typically a keen sort and he is to be tried in tongue-tie and cheekpieces here while retaining the services of Tom Scudamore. He sets a reasonable standard on his course form although he will be accompanied in the horsebox by To Fly Free who runs in a later handicap. Based on the yard's history with ex-French flat horses, there is a suspicion that he may be seen to better effect in that discipline.

Spit It Out bg Susan Corbett f6-0-0 (46) 48
Swiss Spirit (Sinndar){1-e}(2.43) 3/2 Pintanera 3rd 3yo Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2006
Spit It Out has never finished closer than ten lengths to the winner in six flat starts and was well beaten off low marks in a pair of handicaps this month at Musselburgh and Newcastle. Damsire Sinndar is a quality stallion in the division and Susan Corbett charges improve more often than not for switching to hurdles but Spit It Out has plenty on his plate here.

The Trendy Man bg Liam Bailey f12-1-0 (47) 52 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Dandy Man (Dubai Destination){5-h}(1.15) 3/1 Karshi 1st Stayers Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1997
The Trendy Man managed to win a handicap at Beverley for David O'Meara although that was off just 46 and he unseated at the third on his hurdling debut at Southwell. He has since joined a yard having its first runner in juvenile hurdles.

Strong prospects
1. Magna Moralia
Reasonable prospects
2. Sans Logique
3. North Point
Feasible prospects
4. Kings Creek
5. Genever Dragon
Negligible prospects
6. The Trendy Man
7. Spit It Out
8. Douglas Fir

Punchestown's second juvenile hurdle of the season takes place on Tuesday, and is only the second such event to be held at the track in September in almost sixteen years. Typically a racecourse which hosts the finest races in the division, Tuesday's being a maiden ran in September rather tempers the quality of the field. None of the fresh flat form looks up to much but some of the best placed form will be represented and a couple of racecourse debutants certainly pique the interest. The average winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.26 mean are lower than those of the average runner which stand at 1.27 and 1.54 which along with seconds per furlong times, indicate that the track offers a solid stamina test. That it ranks forty-sixth on the 'clear round' table also suggests that good jumping is an important asset. The ground is forecast to be riding as good.

Bigz Belief bg Matthew J Smith f9-0-0 (51) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 99 96
Make Believe (Falco){3-d}(2.00) 2/1 Camouflage 4th Maiden Hurdle, Navan 2007
Bigz Belief never raced beyond a mile on the flat where he registered only fair from in nine flat outings. He was sent off at 66/1 on his hurdling debut at this venue three weeks ago but while he was beaten twenty-seven lengths in the end, he was still leading just before turning for home. It was not a run devoid of promise and there is scope for improvement in the jumping department but he has plenty of ground to make up and his stamina is not assured.

Craic Eile bg David Kenneth Budds f7-0-1 (55) 50
Palavicini (Invincible Spirit){1-k}(0.63) 0.5 Elysian Plains 1st 3-Y-O Hurdle, Killarney 2018
Craic Eile has had seven starts on the flat and on six of those occasions, he achieved next to nothing. However, he finished third to Scholastic at Tramore three outings ago at 125/1 which saw his handicap mark jump nineteen pounds. His new rating was enough to see him beaten nearly seventy lengths in two soft ground handicaps and he now turns his attention to hurdling. A half-brother to winning juvenile Elysian Plains, the likes of Echo Park (2/1), Lake Champlain (3/2) and Modus (5/4) can also be found on the damline. However, sire Palavicini has yet to have any winners over hurdles or beyond nine furlongs on the flat the trainer is also without a win from five runs in the sphere.

Finsceal Blue bg W J Austin j1-0-1 (-) 41 49
Finsceal Fior (Azamour){3-l}(1.09) 6/5 Sadler's Risk 1st Star Chase (G3), Punchestown 2016
Unraced on the flat, Finsceal Blue found himself getting detached with a circuit left to run on his debut at Listowel. His sire has done well with limited opportunities in the sphere but there was very little promise first time.

Gold Coast chg Miss Ellmarie Holden Unraced
Galileo (Elnadim){21-a}(0.78) 5/4 Piedmont 1st Steeple-Chase, Baden-Baden 2008
Ellmarie Holden has sent out four juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09 with three of them winning including Ex Patriot who did so on his hurdling debut. Gold Coast was initially trained by Aiden O'Brien but he never saw the racecourse for Coolmore. Out of a sister to the dam of useful Australian sprinter Zousain, Gold Coast has very little in the way of jumpers on his damline. Galileo is the outstanding stallion of his generation on the flat but while he gets the occasional high class hurdler, his record in this sphere is no better than average. Furthermore, none of his seven juveniles who went straight over hurdles were able to collect any prizemoney, let alone wins. Damsire Elnadim's record in this division is also fruitless. Gold Coast is an interesting recruit for his very capable trainer but the statistics are not in his favour.

Jeff Kidder bg Noel Meade f7-1-2 (68) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 120 114
Hallowed Crown (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) no jumps relatives
Jeff Kidder made a promising start to his hurdling career when second to Longclaw in the season's curtain raiser at Roscommon in the beginning of August. His jumping there was respectable and while he was no match for the winner, he shaped as though a sterner test would suit. He since returned to the flat and stayed on best of all to win a heavy ground twelve furlong Bellewstown handicap off 65. He showed good acceleration turning in and there was no questioning his stamina. However, he did not need to improve much to win that race and he did not look entirely straightforward in doing so. Jeff Kidder does bring a good standard of form but he may be vulnerable if he is put under pressure.

Lucky Fella bg Gordon Elliott Unraced
Yorgunnabelucky (Hernando){6-e}(0.80) 0.5 Must See The Doc 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2019
Gordon Elliott won Punchestown's first juvenile hurdle of the season with a racecourse debutant and his sole representative here is of the same ilk. Like Duffle Coat, Lucky Fella is also a half brother to a winning juvenile although the former's sibling Starchitect was a rung or two above Must See The Doc. Yorgunnabelucky is without a win in eleven juvenile hurdles as a sire but damsire Hernando's record is more respectable with a winners to runners rate of 32.14%. There is a chance that the yard might strike twice but there are rivals whose experience will make it a difficult task.

Varna Gold chg Paul John Gilligan f11-0-3 (69) 72 j2-0-1 (-) 87 106
Shooting To Win (Efisio){5-e}(1.67) 3/2 Najaf 2nd Spa Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
While Varna Gold is a fair maiden handicapper on the flat, he is also rather exposed and inconsistent. He showed up briefly before fading on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe but though his finishing position was flattering due to the wrath of Scholastic, he put up a better effort when second behind Longclaw at Down Royal. His jumping was still rather slow but it did improve from his first outing and he is capable of running to a fair level at his best. Even then however, he would still have something to find with a few of these.

Yulong Voice bbg Shane Nolan f9-1-1 (71) 78 j2-0-1 (-) 104 106
Poet's Voice (Refuse To Bend){1-e}(1.00) 2/1 Dariak 4th Galway Hurdle (122), Galway 2008
A winner of a Bellewstown maiden last year for Jessica Harrington, Yulong Voice finished behind Varna Gold when last of three finishers at Down Royal on his jumps debut. A half-brother to a winning hurdler with a damline which features the likes of Forth Bridge (3/3), Shaneshill (4/2) and Darlan (4/2), Yulong Voice is bred for the game and has shown himself to be a reasonable hurdler. He improved on his debut outing when fifth here last time and he may appreciate the quicker ground forecast for Tuesday. He has yet to show that he can match the two form principles but he is going in the right direction.

Rock Chica bf Thomas Mullins f6-0-0 (38) 40
Rock Of Gibraltar (Bahri){1-l}(1.86) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
Rock Chica's flat rating of 38 is not generous based on what she has achieved and although the stable has won juvenile hurdles with horses rated lower than 60 on the flat, a win here would set a new benchmark for the yard. The records of Rock Of Gibraltar and Bahri in the sphere are above average and the dam is a half-sister to the decent Chica Buena. Nevertheless, the flat form is still very poor and she was taken out of two races in June on account of unsuitably quick ground (yielding).

Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-0 (70) 66 j3-0-2 101 109
Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
After losing her jockey following a mid-air collision in the early stages of her hurdling debut at Down Royal, Scholastic embarked on a reign of chaos which saw her eliminate three of her rivals. Next time at Punchestown, she did everything but fall at the first but while she still lacked some fluency, it was a better round overall and she was still in contention until reaching the last. Scholastic took a leap forward on her latest start at Listowel last Sunday where her jumping was actually slick on occasion before pushing Longclaw all the way to the line. While she was in receipt of seventeen pounds from the winner, she surpassed anything she achieved when winning three times on the flat. Scholastic returns to Punchestown where she will appreciate the faster ground and has shown more resolve than Jeff Kidder. Provided she shows no signs of fatigue for a busy schedule, she ought to be difficult to beat.

Valley Of Dreams chf N Dooly f7-0-0 (35) 45
Dream Ahead (Raven's Pass){14-f}(0.71) 2/1 Gilded Age 6th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Apart from a fourteen length eighth of twelve on her last start for Cormac Farrell in February, Valley Of Dreams' form figures are comprised of duck eggs. Her official mark of 35 looks stiff for what she has shown this summer when she started at triple figure prices in five starts. Dream Ahead's strike rate in the sphere is just 5.88% and Raven's Pass has yet to produce a winner as a damsire.

Strong prospects
1. Scholastic
Reasonable prospects
2. Jeff Kidder
3. Yulong Voice
Feasible prospects
4. Lucky Fella
5. Varna Gold
Moderate prospects
6. Gold Coast
7. Bigz Belief
Negligible prospects
8. Craic Eile
9. Rock Chica
10. Finsceal Blue
11. Valley Of Dreams

16:45 Sedgefield 2m1f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle
To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79 j2-0-2 (98) 92 100
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
While To Fly Free competed in claiming company in France, she was bought at Arqana for €6,000 from the Ludovic Gadbin yard. Paricolor and Night Edition were other transfers between the two yards - the former winning on his handicap debut on his fourth outing for David Pipe and the latter winning a maiden on his third attempt before finishing runner-up in the Fred Winter. To Fly Free was very weak in the market ahead of her UK/hurdling debut at Cartmel and while she made good headway along the woodside, would fade tamely to finish a twenty-three length third. She was better next time at Market Rasen however, staying on to split subsequent winners Soldier On Parade and Historic Heart. Historic Heart ran respectably off a mark of 110 at Fontwell following his Sedgefield win and To Fly Free looks fairly treated on that basis alone. David Pipe's record with three-year-olds in open aged handicaps is two wins from twenty runners since 2012. However, that record takes a different shape when we revisit the assessment of those who ran on the flat in France.

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*nb Paricolor actually won his first two handicaps including one at Sedgefield.

While I am not in a position to comment on the quality of this race or To Fly Free's specific chances, in isolation, she appears to have a solid profile and she should not be let down by poor jumping or a lack of stamina.
 
Huntingdon's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place on Wednesday and eight of the ten declarations will be making their hurdling debuts. Winners of juveniles at the racecourse have an average seasonal RPR of 118 which is roughly standard for the UK. Nevertheless, it has attracted good types over the years with the likes of Walkon, Starluck and Nordano winning races held before December. Huntingdon is something of an anomaly in that while it is a fast and flat track with quick seconds per furlong figures, the winning DIs (1.00 median compared to 1.33 for the average runner) indicate that it still places demands on stamina. Notwithstanding, the likes of Compton Place, Invincible Spirit and Bushranger have all sired winning juveniles here suggesting that a blend of speed and stamina is a useful attribute. Only one of the two with hurdling experience has shown worthwhile form and although a couple of the flat recruits have some useful form, the field rather lacks for strength in depth.

Asharann bg Oliver Greenall f6-1-1 FrF (80.3) 73
Zoffany (Linamix){16-a}(0.87) 0.5 Ashutor 1st Handicap Chase (132), Fontwell 2020
Running in the colours of the Aga Khan under the care of Jean-Claude Rouget, Asharann raced six times on the flat, winning one race in the process. That victory came when landing the odds in a colts and geldings maiden at Cagnes Sur Mer over an extended seven furlongs back in February. Under a smooth ride from Christophe Soumillon, Asharann hit the front with a furlong to go and got the best of two separate battles to have his nostril in front on the line. While the third has developed into a useful 92.4 rated handicapper, there is not much to say of the others in behind with the best of them subsequently rated no higher than 71.5. He was beaten ten lengths on his next outing over a mile at Bordeaux but the form is not too bad as the winner has since finished fourth in a Group 3, the runner-up finished eighth in the same class and the third won a listed race at Toulouse on his next start. However, his form has been of a much lower standard in his two races since a spring break. Beaten nearly twenty-three lengths at Salon de Provence on his return in May, he pulled extremely hard when his sights were lowered for a conditions race at Dax in the middle of June. There he finished seventh and the first two have each been beaten in claiming company. He subsequently sold for €9,000 at the Arqana sales to join the Oliver Greenall yard. Oliver Greenall's other import from French flat races was Zalvados and while he failed to win in five starts as a juvenile, he did finish second in the Victor Ludorum and third in the two-mile handicap at the Grand National meeting. Zalvados cost nearly three times the amount Asharann fetched and while the Rouget stable has been the source of some very good juveniles over the years (Petite Parisienne, Brampour, Kazlian), his horses only have a 17.39% improvement rate. Asharann's best flat form is still as good as anything brought to this field and his new trainer, who won a juvenile at Huntington last April, is bound to have his charge well-schooled. Zoffany (Sir Psycho, Lord Justice, Zig Zag) gets more than his fair share of winners in the sphere and Linamix (Peace And Co, Diakali, Thunder Zone) has the best record of the damsires represented here. There is further encouragement on the damline as he is a half-brother to the useful summer jumper Ashutor, his dam is a half-sister to the dam of good French 3yo hurdler Chaptal and the aforementioned Kazlian can be found further back at 5/3. Asharann does have to overcome a decline in form and the yard's juveniles usually come on for the run but he still makes plenty of appeal on his profile.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Amy Murphy f12-2-1 (68) 75 j4-0-1 (109) 108 109
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Amy Murphy’s juveniles continued to impress on Saturday as Soldier On Parade put up the best performance in the division of the season. In Calidus Mirabilis, her 17,000 guineas recruit from the Joseph O'Brien yard, she ought to have another useful addition to her ranks but he once again disappointed on his UK debut at Plumpton ten days ago. Twice a winner on the flat, he gives no reason to suspect that he is ungenuine but he almost certainly has stamina issues which is why it was no surprise that he faded badly after setting a strong pace last time out. The best of his hurdles efforts are more than ample to make him competitive at this level and as he has been seen to hang right, the first time application of blinkers may be beneficial in preserving his energy. Nevertheless, none of Amy Murphy's twenty-nine horses tried in first time blinkers have been winners and it remains to be seen if there is any stamina test over hurdles which is within his capacity.

Crazy Love bf Sheena West f4-0-0 (45) 46
Sixties Icon (Piccolo){3-l}(0.71) 2/0 Keeping The Faith 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Cheltenham 1997
Crazy love earned an official rating of 47 after three runs over the winter but that proved to be too steep as she finished an eight length ninth in a ten furlong Lingfield handicap in June. She has since left Mick Channon to join Sheena West who has an above average record in the sphere and won this race in 2011 with Alfraamsey. Crazy Love's new trainer has won juvenile hurdles with eight horses rated lower than 60 with two of them rated just 45. One of those was another Sixties Icon who has had another fine season in the division. Crazy Love's granddam was placed in a Cheltenham juvenile in 1997 and is a half-sister to the useful Mystical City. She still has a mountain to climb on form and damsire Piccolo has a bad record in the sphere but given her connections and the remainder of her breeding, a place effort cannot be ruled out entirely.

Donald Llewellyn bg Gary Moore f5-0-0 (50) 53
Pivotal (New Approach){8-d}(1.61) 2/1 Movie Set 1st Selling Hurdle, Fakenham 2019
Gary Moore's winners to runners rate of 40.63% is the best in this field and like Sheena West, he can also get wins in the division from lower rated animals. This is useful for Donald Llewellyn as he is officially rated just 50 on the flat although he did run into his best finishing position when fifth at Lingfield on his latest run. However, the yard is not in its best spell of form at the moment and their last winner was sent out a fortnight ago. Pivotal gets more than his share of success in the division although that is generally with higher rated horses. While there are minor jumps winners on the damline, his yard would perhaps want to be enjoying better form before Donald Llewellyn is able to explore his potential.

Dutch Admiral chg David Bridgwater 4-0-1 (83) 80 j2-0-0 (-) 79 84
Dutch Art (Affirmed){9-e}(1.91) American family 6/7 Danny Whizzbang
Dutch Admiral was fourth in a listed race on the flat for Cormac Farrell but his being by Dutch Art did not bode well for his prospects as a juvenile hurdler. He demonstrated little aptitude on his UK debut when beaten twenty-eight lengths at Market Rasen, and managed to regress on that performance last time at Uttoxeter. There may one day be a race so poor that he can put a fraction of his flat ability to some use but it won't be taking place at Huntingdon this Tuesday.

Little Tipsy bf Adam West f1-0-0 (-) 25
Harbour Watch (Event Of The Year){6-a}(2.43) 1/1 Act Of Valour 2nd Scottish Triumph Trial (L), Musselburgh 2018
Little Tipsy is a full-sister to the useful juvenile Act Of Valour but she was tailed off on her sole flat start last season. Her trainer has yet to collect any prize money with his three juvenile hurdlers thus far.

Now We're Touring bg Alex Hales f3-0-0 (42) 38
Kingston Hill (Footstepsinthesand){A1}(0.68) 3/4 Rock Climber 3rd Handicap Hurdle (Listed), Enghien 2013
Jeremy and Mastercraftsman, each from the Danehill Dancer line, have been two of the most successful sires of juveniles in recent years despite their Dosage Indexes being 1.82. Two other sons, Fast Company and Choisir, have improvement rates of 65% and 73% despite having DIs of 2.06 and 2.60 respectively. Kingston Hill, a St Leger winning son of Mastercraftsman out of a half-sister to the useful hurdler Lord Jim, has a DI of just 0.90 and is a smidge taller than leading juvenile sire Authorized. Naturally, Kingston Hill makes for a most intriguing addition to the ranks of jumps stallions which explains why he was transferred from Coolmore to the operation's National Hunt base at Castle Hyde Stud. Now We're Talking will be the first to represent his stallion over hurdles but before the excitement becomes too much, it must be noted that the Kingston Hills with a official flat marks do not look great and Now We're Touring is the lowest rated of them all. He was last seen at the beginning of the month when he was beaten forty-two lengths in a Wolverhampton Novice Stakes at 250/1 and prior to that, he was last of twelve in a similar contest at Kempton. Trainer Alex Hales had an enjoyable summer thanks to the exploits of Hiconic but he is yet to breach the first four in Huntingdon juveniles in five attempts. Footstepsinthesand has an above average record as a stallion in the division but as a damsire, he is still without a winner from six horses. While Kingston Hill has the potential to make an impact in the sphere before his offspring become exclusively store horses, he is unlikely to do so with his first runner.

Opine bg Jonjo O'Neill f8-0-0 (52) 57
Authorized (Numerous){4-n}(0.94) .5 Tamarix Jode 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
From one stallion with promising credentials to another who has proven himself as of the highest quality in the sphere. Since 2009/10, no horse has as many juvenile wins as Authorized and his improvement rate of 78.05% is outstanding. His sale to Turkey is a loss to the breed. Nevertheless, he still has crops that will be running in juvenile hurdles and one of them is the eight race flat maiden Opine. The former inmate of Michael Bell has this year been competing in handicaps from twelve furlongs to two miles but has been beaten by at least eight lengths on each occasion. Graduates of the Michael Bell yard do have an above average record in the discipline and include some classy sorts such as Grumeti, Allmankind and Christopher Wood. However, while Jonjo O'Neill does get winning juvenile winners with low flat ratings, they typically spent their entire careers at Jackdaws Castle and his overall improvement rate is an unimpressive 28.57%. Furthermore, with his being out of a half-sister to Treve, Opine could have been expected to achieve more on the flat, and his siblings that have been tried over hurdles have fared poorly. There are positive elements to Opine's profile, but it is a patchy one overall and he has something to find with a few of these.

Sefton Warrior bg Richard Spencer f8-1-0 (67) 72
Frankel (Danehill Dancer){21-a}(0.78) 2/1 Mastercraftsman leading sire of juvenile hurdlers
Continuing the theme of stallions, it was mentioned in the preview for Punchestown's race tomorrow that while Galileo is the outstanding sire of his generation, his record with juvenile hurdlers is merely average. Nevertheless, with sons such as Soldier Of Fortune, Nathaniel and Australia, he has a better record as a grandsire and his greatest flat horse Frankel has had a decent foray with limited opportunities, including the dual winner Solo Saxophone. Sefton Warrior is set to be his first juvenile hurdler of the season and while the closest useful jumper on the damline is Auteuil winner El Milagro at 3/3, he is out of a sister to the aforementioned Mastercraftsman. Incidentally, leading National Hunt stallion Oscar also appears further back at 5/3. Sefton Warrior has had eight runs on the flat including a win at Yarmouth three starts ago in a fourteen-furlong handicap. He made all of the running there and was well ahead at the final furlong marker. While the runner-up closed to within a neck at the line, the pair were still over five lengths clear of the remainder. However, that form has not been well advertised since and he has been beaten on both of his subsequent starts, although he only faded late on last time out over two miles at Chelmsford. Trainer Richard Spencer is not in the best form at the moment and he does not send many horses over hurdles, but he did have a winner in the sphere with Nucky Thompson in 2016. Sefton Warrior's profile is not entirely substantial but it is still interesting and his blend of speed and stamina will be useful here.

You Owe Me chg Sarah-Jayne Davies f6-0-1 (60) 64
Champs Elysees (Giant's Causeway){10-a}(1.50) no jumps relatives
Racing for Mark Johnson, You Owe Me began 2020 with a rating of 69, but that dropped to 60 after three moderate runs in handicaps during the summer. His latest effort in a Beverley handicap was the better of his efforts this year as he was beaten less than nine lengths but apart from the winner, the rest of the field has subsequently shown little. You Owe Me joined Sarah-Jayne Davies after fetching £19,000 at the Goffs UK Summer Sale. His new trainer has had one winning juvenile from fifteen starts which came when Big John Cannon won a four-runner claimer at Ludlow in 2013. Champs Elysees does do well in the division and his damsire is capable but there are no notable jumpers in the damline.

Strong prospects
1. Asharann
Reasonable prospects
2. Sefton Warrior
3. Calidus Mirabilis
Feasible prospects
4. Crazy Love
Moderate prospects
5. Donald Llewellyn
6. Opine
7. You Owe Me
8. Now We're Touring
Negligible prospects
9. Dutch Admiral
10. Little Tipsy
 
If that 2,380 word essay on a Wednesday afternoon Huntingdon juvenile hurdle did not quell your appetite for my waffle, the meeting's class five handicap hurdle also happens to feature a three-year-old. Hurray!

15:10 Huntingdon 2m3½f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle
Dragon Man bg M Young f3-0-0 (45) 45 j3-0-0 (74) 54 57
Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
Dragon Man was his trainer's first runner when making his hurdling debut at Stratford where he was beaten over one hundred lengths. Sporting cheekpieces for his second outing at Market Rasen, he fared marginally better when beaten only sixty-three lengths. He returned to Market Rasen in the middle of August where he posted his best effort to date as he was able to fend off Navajo Eagle on the run-in for a fifty-two length sixth behind Soldier On Parade. That performance earned him an official rating of 74 although he is sixteen pounds wrong in the long-handicap for tomorrow's race. I only felt his Market Rasen run was worth 57 which leaves him with forty-three pounds to find. He does jump the occasional hurdle well and as well as his granddam being a half-sister to Scorpion, he is also distantly related to talented National horses Moorcroft Boy (7/3) and Blue Charm (7/4) so the step up in trip may suit him well. There is also the chance that he has improved for the six week break but unless this race is literally one of the worst ever held in the UK, he does not look like the most obvious candidate.
 
If that 2,380 word essay on a Wednesday afternoon Huntingdon juvenile hurdle did not quell your appetite for my waffle, the meeting's class five handicap hurdle also happens to feature a three-year-old. Hurray!

15:10 Huntingdon 2m3½f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle
Dragon Man bg M Young f3-0-0 (45) 45 j3-0-0 (74) 54 57
Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
Dragon Man was his trainer's first runner when making his hurdling debut at Stratford where he was beaten over one hundred lengths. Sporting cheekpieces for his second outing at Market Rasen, he fared marginally better when beaten only sixty-three lengths. He returned to Market Rasen in the middle of August where he posted his best effort to date as he was able to fend off Navajo Eagle on the run-in for a fifty-two length sixth behind Soldier On Parade. That performance earned him an official rating of 74 although he is sixteen pounds wrong in the long-handicap for tomorrow's race. I only felt his Market Rasen run was worth 57 which leaves him with forty-three pounds to find. He does jump the occasional hurdle well and as well as his granddam being a half-sister to Scorpion, he is also distantly related to talented National horses Moorcroft Boy (7/3) and Blue Charm (7/4) so the step up in trip may suit him well. There is also the chance that he has improved for the six week break but unless this race is literally one of the worst ever held in the UK, he does not look like the most obvious candidate.

Waffle on, BH, waffle on. It is quality waffle after all.
 
Cheers Barjon. While it was never my intention, I may be on track to write more on the subject of juvenile hurdlers during a single season than any other human being in the history of mankind...

Sedgefield
Preview review
Genever Dragon was relatively unfancied on account of his poor recent flat form and the record of his sire in the sphere - becoming only the second winner for Dragon Pulse from thirty-six starts. Nevertheless, his prospects were still deemed feasible on the basis of his trainer's record at the venue and the consistency of Tom Dascombe's former inmates. Magna Moralia had much the likeliest prospects and went as low as 1.04 in running but his jump at the last and questionable disposition were mentioned as caveats. Kings Creek jumped well but did not quite have enough to win, North Point will likely improve for the run and Sans Logique was not ready to do himself justice. Overall, it was a mostly satisfactory preview.

Race review
The field looked no better than average beforehand but the first two pulled clear enough to warrant interest in future events. A few of these were rather keen early but and there was some bustling over the first few flights but they were a well behaved bunch overall and there were no hard luck stories. The pace was no better than fair but the winning time was reasonable in comparison to the later handicaps that had the benefit of less hurdles to jump. The form horses had the outsiders in trouble from some way out and the finishing order is easy enough to explain so while the race looks nothing out of the ordinary, it still seems reasonably solid for the level.

Genever Dragon had not matched his respectable two-year-old form in three starts this season but he looked a different proposition over hurdles for his new trainer this afternoon. While he was hampered at the second, he jumped well on his hurdling debut and travelled strongly behind the leaders. He began to be ridden between the final two flights and looked a little green under pressure, but a quick jump at the last gave him a clear advantage and he stayed on strongly to the line, always repelling the challenge of the runner-up. This was a pleasing performance first time out and represents a career best effort. There is scope for further improvement and while this is not great form, he is capable of defying a penalty in similar company. 109

Magna Moralia set the standard on flat form and represented a trainer who does well both in this sphere and at the track. He was keen in the early stages and his jumping was not particularly fluent but he was still on the bridle approaching the last and looked the likeliest winner as he took off a length in front. However, he jumped the hurdle awkwardly and lost both his stride and valuable momentum immediately afterwards. He did plug on again once he found his rhythm but while he had too much to do, he was always being held in any case. There is obvious scope for improvement and he perhaps had the best engine in the field but while he can be competitive at this level, he may require a clever type of ride if he is able to win a race. 108

Kings Creek had ran respectably in two hurdle races for Alan King where his jumping was characterised by understated professionalism. Apart from skewing slightly at the second, he put in another clean round here for his new trainer and after being in contention approaching the last, only faded on the run-in. His rider had lost the whip before jumping the last but it probably made little difference as he was still running on but with a hint of fatigue. It transpired this morning that his hurdles rating had gone up from a fair 102 to a harsh 108 on the ludicrous premise that as Soldier On Parade had improved during his break, so too must have Kings Creek. His new connections would have every right to be aggrieved by this idiocy because while Kings Creek can hold his own at this level, he has done nothing to deserve his revised rating. That To Fly Free suffered from the same fate while being beaten in the later handicap off her old mark further compounds the irrationality of this action. 102

North Point had twice finished placed on the flat for David Elsworth and was another having his first outing for a new trainer. While horses from the yard are typically well schooled, North Point jumped left at the second and was getting reminders after he was baulked at the fourth. He was slow at the next two jumps but made some headway turning for home. However, he was outpaced on the run to the last and was allowed to get home in his own time as fourth place had been secured. This was not the most promising debut but the yard's horses usually improve for the run so it is reasonable to expect better in the future. 86

Sans Logique was beaten by just over three lengths at this track a month earlier but though he once again attempted to make all, he was beaten much further out on this occasion. While there was some fluency in his jumping first time out, it was less evident here as he veered left after wandering into the first and maintained that form thereafter. The yard's ex-French flat horses usually do better for a handicap rating but there was still much left to be desired from his jumping here and it remains to be see how generous the handicapper is when this one is allotted a mark. 61

Spit It Out was the first of the outsiders to finish. Apart from being untidy at the first and slow at the fourth, his jumping was reasonable and he made some headway in the back straight without getting near the leaders. If banded racing ever returns then Spit It Out would be of interest but there is not much enthusiasm for the immediate future. 58

Douglas Fir was fresh and jumped slowly when having his first start in nearly eleven months last time out. He jumped better here and improved to the tune of half a stone but was still a tailed-off last. 37

The Trendy Man only made it to the third flight at Southwell but made it to the third last here. He challenged for the lead early on but had dropped to the rear with a circuit left to race and his jumping also lacked fluency. 0

Punchestown
Preview review
The comfortable winner was described as "ought to be difficult to beat" and her closest challenger filled the same spot in the prospects list. The other reasonable prospect did show enthusiasm but went off too quickly while the well fancied newcomer was given a lukewarm review. The third had shown promise on his debut without seeing out the trip and while the fourth was given negligible prospects, there were reasons given on breeding that she could better her lacklustre flat form. While I like to aim for perfection, I can still only be happy with that preview.

Race review
This looked like a potentially useful contest beforehand and it was ran at a solid gallop. However, with the exceptions of the winner and the sixth, no horse made less than three untidy jumps. As such, the race did not take much winning and the form would only be of an average standard.

Scholastic's jumping was initially a matter of grave concern but she had improved in that department with every run. Her latest outing saw her post a career best as she ran Longclaw to a short-head at Listowel and a replication of that effort was enough to run out a decisive winner. Chasing the leader and travelling strongly throughout, she jumped into the lead at the penultimate flight and opened up a gap between herself and her rivals. Her jumping was essentially immaculate at every hurdle and after popping over the last, she was never in danger of getting caught. Given that her rivals collectively jumped themselves out of the race, she did not have to improve on her Listowel performance to win here. As such, while she very much deserved her win today, she may be vulnerable carrying a penalty in better company. Nevertheless, she can jump well and shows an admirable willingness to win so she would still be no pushover at this level. 109

Jeff Kidder brought a decent level of form in his second to Longclaw at Roscommon back in early August and had since collected his first flat win at Bellewstown in the interim. However, his jumping was atrocious here as he either dived at, or got in too close to, most of his hurdles. He obviously has the ability to win a race of this nature and will likely be seen to better effect with more cut in the ground. However, his jumping and questionable attitude make him far from certain to do so. 110

Bigz Belief was no better than fair on the flat but while his jumping was not brilliant, he was still in the lead until turning for home on his hurdling debut at this course three weeks earlier. Ridden more patiently here, his jumping still lacked fluency and he got especially close to the fourth. Nevertheless, he was left a beaten third at the last and put up a career best in the process. Provided there are no great stamina demands, he may be competitive in a weak enough contest provided he can improve his jumping. 102

Rock Chica was poor on the flat but her breeding suggested that she could at least do better in this sphere. She effectively tripped over the first two flights and barely lifted her legs for the fifth. Nevertheless, there were some good jumps during her round and though she had to avoid the faller after the last, she stayed on to post by far her best performance to date. This was still no better than average in terms of form but it was not entirely devoid of promise. 94

Lucky Fella was representing a yard which had won with a racecourse debutant three weeks earlier and he was well fancied to repeat the trick. His profile was not quite as compelling as his stablemate's however and his jumping was nowhere near as polished. He was big and slow over the first, got in very close to the second, jumped right at the third and was slow again over two out. Disregarding his market support, this was not a bad first effort and he is likely to improve for the experience. Nevertheless, he looks unlikely to be one of the leading lights for his powerful yard this season. 95

Craic Eile had only a 125/1 third to Scholastic to show for six starts on the flat and her mark of 55 looked harsh. However, while she was beaten nearly twenty-four lengths here, her jumping ranged from clean to very good. She made some headway towards the second last and while she weakened on the run in, was still clear of the remainder of the field. Her sirelines are not conducive to stamina but she is related to several winning hurdlers and given an easier test, hers might not be a hopeless cause. 93

Gold Coast was unraced for Aiden O'Brien and instead made his debut for a yard that has done well with limited numbers in the sphere. His jumping was far from fluent however and while he travelled well for a long way, he faded tamely on the run in. This was not a devoid of promise but he needs to show more before he can become competitive in open company. 83

Yulong Voice had some reasonable flat form and was going in the right direction over hurdles prior to today. However, he set off quickly from the front but steadied almost to a halt before just about clearing the first. He maintained his strong gallop but his jumping never justified such a tactic and after being headed two from home, weakened very quickly. This was a disappointing effort but it is one that can likely be ignored in the grand scheme of things. 55

Valley Of Dreams almost unseated on numerous occasions and was essentially detached from the outset. While she eventually completed the course, this run was entirely devoid of promise. 0

Finsceal Blue jumped poorly in the rear on his racecourse debut at Listowel and did the same here before unseating his rider two from home. 0

Varna Gold is not the most consistent sort but he is capable of running respectably and was in the process of doing so here when falling at the last. He was slow at a couple of hurdles but his round was not the poorest on display and was while he jumped the last fine, he stumbled and fell on landing. He was two lengths ahead of the fourth placed horse at the time but as it was a rather tired fall, it is uncertain as to whether or not he would have maintained his place. The most important thing is that he got up safely and should he show no ill-effects for the experience, he may or may not post another respectable effort in the near future. 101

To Fly Free 29/9/2020 Sedgefield
Ahead of a scheduled six pound rise on account of her second to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen, To Fly Free's mark of 98 looked fair beforehand. Due to the low sun, only five hurdles were jumped here. Settling in mid division off a steady gallop, she got fairly close into the first and was also slightly steady going into the second. Better at the third, she travelled well along the hurdleless back straight and had no problems keeping up with the leaders as the pace increased. After being bumped by the disqualified winner turning for home, she once again got in close to the penultimate flight but was able to avoid the concertina effect caused by another swerve by Major Snugfit. She led briefly on the run to the final flight but was unable to quicken and while she jumped well over the last, was one paced on the run-in and hung her head under pressure. This was a fair effort and the performance roughly matched what she achieved at Market Rasen. To Fly Free can improve again with experience but her revised mark will make things more difficult. 99

To Fly Free is also one of two juveniles declared to run in a Ffos Las handicap on Thursday...

Thursday 1st October 15:35 Ffos Las 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle
Since 2008/09, no three-year-old has competed in a Ffos Las handicap hurdle nor has Oliver Greenall ran a juvenile in such a race so any statistical analysis where Fraterculus is concerned would be redundant.

Fraterculus chg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (79) 76 j2-0-1 (104) 91 95
Teofilo (Anabaa){5-f}(1.08) 6/7 Optimus Prime 2nd Novice Chase, Punchestown 2018
Fraterculus had shown some useful form on the flat for Jim Bolger and his three hurdles runs have had some promise to them. However, he has been rather immature thus far and though his jumping was as good as it had ever been at Southwell last time, he did not go well in the ground. Ffos Las is one of the easiest tracks in the country for juveniles although it is currently riding good-to-soft which will not entirely suit Fraterculus. His rating of 104 is stiff on what he has shown thus far and although he has scope for improvement, he will need to have developed mentally over the past four weeks if he is to be competitive.

To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79 j3-0-2 (99) 92 100
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
To Fly Free is also a declared runner and if she lines up, would have the better chance of the pair. She is set to be a pound wrong at the weights and was unable to take advantage of her mark today at Sedgefield but if she strips considerably fitter then this will be as good as any opportunity for her before she goes up six pounds for no justifiable reason. Notwithstanding, David Pipe has only the one winning juvenile from seven at the track which came when Kazlian won at odds of 1/4 in December 2011.
 
I’m honestly not trying to set you more tasks, BH, but I’m collating your race review comments per horse (for some) rather than race. They make a nice read. Here’s an example

SOLDIER ON PARADE

12 July Bangor

Soldier On Parade brought consistent and fair form from the flat and was the subject of significant market support before the off. He was backed as though he knew his job and put in a round which was very acceptable for a debut effort. Closely following the leader throughout, there were mild critiques that could be made about half of his jumps such as marginal deviations, slight hesitancy and a misjudging of his stride. Nevertheless, he was also foot perfect at a few others and his imperfect jumps offer encouragement rather than concern for the future. He travelled nicely and even though it was in keeping with his flat superiority, he still pulled clear from the remainder with the minimum off fuss. Keeping on to the line and finishing twenty-one lengths clear off the third, he can be given a rating of at least 104 and be expected to improve on that figure next time.

27 July Market Rasen

Soldier On Parade did not win head on chest but it was a very comfortable success and was never asked to do more than stretch out. Leading from the start, he took a fairly keen hold early on and went left at the first two flights but apart from being guessy at the last was neat and tidy at the rest of his jumps. Similarly to Bangor, his pace around half a mile out had the rest of the field in trouble and without asked any serious questions was able to win quite cosily in the end. While he looked like a very nice horse, given the improvement anticipated from his Bangor effort, he was entitled to win this race as he did. There probably should not be too much read into the distance he put between himself and those behind as they all gave incorrect answers to the questions posed of them going into the race. Nevertheless, it was still a good performance for what it was and a rating in the mid 110s would be fair. Whether that is good enough to defy a penalty will depend on the competition.


16 August Market Rasen

Soldier On Parade made all to win at Market Rasen on his second hurdles start and did the same thing again here. The winning distance of eleven lengths was reduced to just two and a half lengths this time but the opposition was much stronger. As on his first two starts, his acceleration around four furlongs out made all the difference and while his rivals were closing towards the end, he never looked in danger. While he was less keen than on his latest start, there was not a huge improvement in his jumping as he steadied into the second, made a slight error at the fourth and was not fluent at either of his jumps in the straight. Nevertheless, he was still a decisive winner under a penalty from a reasonable field and though his jumping is not foot perfect, he has a decent attitude. 116

26 September Market Rasen

Soldier On Parade won two races at this venue prior to a six week break and he came back better than ever. Electing to track the leader rather than make the running himself, he travelled well with the pace turning for home and ran on strongly when given firm encouragement to win his race. His hurdling is not of the highest standard but it is enough for him at this level and apart from steadying slightly into the first, he put in a clean round here. He has earned the right to take in a race like the Wensleydale although there looks to be a strong crop of recruits for the division this season so he may begin to struggle as the better types begin to appear. Nevertheless, this was still the best performance seen this season and he is due full credit for what he achieved this afternoon. 132
 
Indeed, I was mindful of writing my reviews in that fashion as they are easier to navigate then doing them in one paragraph. I would probably get rid of that stuff I wrote about Dutch Art though. He is a BRILLIANT sire of juvenile hurdlers...

Preview review
After all I have written on Dutch Art, watching his son post the fifth best performance to date in the UK brought the credit theme of Curb Your Enthusiasm to mind. Based on all that could be inferred of Dutch Admiral's qualities, while he has the capacity to do what he did this afternoon, the only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn is that his schooling must have improved dramatically since he was last seen. Front runners do have an advantage in this kind of race but this was the first time in Dutch Admiral's seven starts that he set the pace himself. Opine's jumping was not great but he is by Authorized and was well supported in the market. Calidus Mirablilis does not stay well enough for hurdling, Asharann pulled in the early stages and Sefton Warrior showed little fluency. Taking out the winner and the disappointing newcomers, it was not the worst preview. However, other than Dutch Admiral having flat ability and hurdling experience to his name, I am unsure as to what make of this race's teachings going forward. If we are to assume that the statistics accumulated from over a decade of results are meaningless then so too is every other facet of form study.

Race review
This race appeared to lack strength in depth beforehand and that appears to be the case in hindsight but it was a good performance by the winner who jumped flawlessly throughout. The runner up was less fluent but he was representing a good sire and trainer and was supported in the market. These two pulled a long way clear and the winning time was a second and a half quicker than the novice hurdle ran an hour later. There was some poor jumping on display and most of the field had patchy profiles so the value of the form should not be overstated. Nevertheless, given the winning time and the manner of victory, it would not be fair to take too much away from the winner.

Dutch Admiral managed to finish fourth in a listed race at Dundalk in February and while he failed to win a maiden on his return to that venue, was still thought good enough to be declared for a Curragh Group 3 in June before being withdrawn on the day. However, while his new trainer does get his fair share of winners in the sphere, his pedigree was very uninspiring ahead of his new vocation. With no jumpers nearby on his damline, his sire Dutch Art offered no encouragement as his record in the sphere consisted of one long-odds on winner from forty-three starts prior to today. There was little encouragement to be drawn from his two hurdles outings in the summer either as he lacked fluency and was beaten a combined seventy-two lengths. Even accounting for the fact that he was hampered early on at Uttoxeter, he still had a mountain to climb on all that was known of him. However, he led from the outset here and his jumping was an absolute revelation as he jumped every flight with great efficiency. Credit must go to rider Brendan Powell who judged every stride to perfection giving precisely the right instructions at precisely the right moment. While there was nothing dramatic like a rodeo style recovery or a driving navigation through a big handicap, it would not be hyperbolic to describe this ride as a fine example of horsemanship. Dutch Admiral did not beat a great deal in behind but the winning time was good and strictly on form, it was one of the better performances seen in the UK this season. If he can maintain his enthusiasm and standard of jumping then he will be a player in any ordinary race under a penalty. 111

Opine had not shown a great deal in eight starts on the flat for Michael Bell over distances ranging from seven furlongs to two miles. Nevertheless, former inmates of that yard have a respectable record in this sphere and his sire is one of the best around for juvenile hurdlers. His new trainer is more than capable of training good juveniles and while his improvement rate is not the highest, Opine was the subject of market support here. There was much left to be desired in the jumping department as he was big at several of his hurdles as well as getting in close to a few so it is to his credit he was able to finish as well as he did. This represents a new career best and with improvement anticipated in his jumping, he can step up further on this effort. 109

Calidus Mirabilis already had four runs over hurdles going into this race and had shown enough ability to be competitive at this level. However what he has not shown was the requisite stamina and even on an easy enough track like Huntingdon, he struggled to see out the trip. While he usually leaves his poor jumping for when he is tired at the end of a race, he was snatching up in the early stages here and there were no hurdles where he was conspicuously fluent. Calidus Mirabilis is becoming disappointing and while he can run creditably, it does not appear that he can win an ordinary contest. His official rating has dropped from 109 to 107 and if that decline continues then he may find a suitable opportunity in time. 90

Donald Llewellyn was rated only 50 on the flat but had finished closest to the winner on his latest outing at Lingfield. Along with his stablemate who won later on the card, he was another who attracted market support but while his jumping was reasonable before he ran down the last, he finished too tired to do himself justice. This was not a debut without promise and he broadly matched his flat form here, but he will need to improve before he is competitive at this level. 84

Little Tipsy was well beaten on his sole start on the flat last year and his trainer is yet to have a winner in the division, but he is a full-brother to the useful juvenile Act Of Valour. While he wandered and got close into a couple of early flights, he was able to stay on past beaten horses to secure a remote fifth. This was better than what he achieved last year but he still looks fairly limited. 75

Sefton Warrior won a one mile six handicap at Yarmouth in early August and was sent off favourite here. However, the form of that win has not worked out and he was sporting a first time hood and tongue-tie for his hurdling bow. Settling in the rear, his jumping lacked fluency as he either got in close to, or dived right at, most of his hurdles. He was outpaced prior to turning into the straight and eventually finished well adrift. There is not a lot of encouragement to draw from this outing. 74

Now We're Touring was the first of Kingston Hill's offspring to be seen over hurdles but while he was decent at a few hurdles, he got in very close to a couple of others and did not get very high at the sixth. Furthermore, he had little in the way of promise in his three flat outings and accordingly finished well beaten here. He would not make much appeal for the immediate future. 73

Asharann came into the race with the strongest flat form, achieved during his time with Jean-Claude Rouget in his native France. However, his recent form had not been his best and he showed a tendency to pull hard in his races. A subsequent gelding operation did not quell that issue and his chances took a blow when he was badly hampered at the fourth. That incident would not have been enough to account for this performance but he was not given the harshest of rides thereafter. While he steadied slightly into the first and rather skewed the sixth, his jumping was otherwise of a reasonable standard and as his yard's runners tend to improve for the run, he should fare best of those well beaten here. 70

You Owe Me managed a third last year when with Mark Johnson but his form has been moderate since and he went off unfancied for his new yard. His jumping was poor throughout as he was way too big over several of his jumps and he eventually finished a tailed off last. He has shown hints of ability on the flat but there is plenty of improvement needed before he can show same over hurdles. 68
 
Fontwell hosts its second juvenile of the season on Friday with the first and second from the racecourse's previous contest set to renew their rivalry. Three other runners with promising hurdling form are also set to face the starter along with Harry Whittington's first juvenile of the season so this looks like it could be a competitive, if trappy, little race. The home of the Southern National, Fontwell's seconds per furlong figures are one of the slowest in the country and its median winning DI of 1.00 for juveniles indicates that stamina is a desirable attribute. With at least two likely frontrunners in the field, the pace looks likely to be a searching one. The going is currently described as good but with heavy rain forecast between now and Friday, conditions may deteriorate.

Balko Saint bg Mrs Jane Williams j1-0-0 (-) 97 96
Balko (Saint Des Saints){5-i}(0.71) 2/1 Workbench 3rd Badger Ales Trophy (131), Wincanton 2014
A Balko x Saint des Saints cross out of a half-sister to three winning jumpers who won a chase as a four-year-old, Balko Saint is very much bred to be a National Hunt horse. He made his racecourse debut in early August where was a promising second to the penalised Hiconic. He jumped well for the first part of the race and while he began to make mistakes as the tempo increased, he was good over the final two and acquitted himself well on the run to the line. While he could not match the winner for pace, he was able to keep Talking About You at bay. Some of his rivals here have shown better form but given that he was still fairly green, he gave the impression that he could improve nicely for the experience. The anticipated pace, extra distance and forecast rain at Fontwell could help him further and he is worthy of respect in this field.

Big Jimbo chg G Moore f4-0-1 (49) 46 j2-0-2 (96) 90 102
Helmet (Pastoral Pursuits){9-c}(0.45) 3/1 Tiger Trek 1st Maiden Hurdle, Thurles 2014
Big Jimbo has shown only moderate form on the flat and was beaten twenty-seven lengths on his hurdling debut at Bangor back in July. However, he posted a career best effort last time at this venue when a seven length second to Talking About You. He was held up for much of the race and though he stayed on past beaten horses, never looked like threatening the winner. His jumping was fine save for a couple of slight errors and despite his pedigree, appears to enjoy a trip. The yard broke a losing run this afternoon and does well both at this venue and in this particular contest having won with Halling's Wish, Sussex Ranger and Botox Has from his last six participant. Big Jimbo also enjoys a pull at the weights with Talking About You so he comes here with creditable prospects.

Full Secret bf Neil King f6-0-0 (51) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Footstepsinthesand (Green Desert){3-g}(1.60) 3/1 Davoski 2nd Castleford Chase (G2, 144), Wetherby 2000
After five runs on the all-weather for Richard Fahey, Full Secret joined her new stable for 6,300 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Since then, she ran poorly on his turf debut and while her new yard does well with this type, she was detached from an early stage on her hurdling bow at Plumpton twelve days ago. She is feasibly bred for the discipline and her jumping was not bad for a first try but she needs to show much more to be competitive here.

Sans Logique bg David Pipe f5-1-2 (80.3) j2-0-0 (-) 96 104
Toronado (Whipper){22}(0.75) 0.5 No Thanks 6th Novices Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2020
A beaten favourite on his UK/hurdling debut at Sedgefield in late August, Sans Logique returned to County Durham on Tuesday where his effort was most regressive. He was beaten less than four lengths on his first outing there and is weighted to reverse placings with Talking About You who was ahead of him in second. However, his jumping on Tuesday was poor as he dived left at most of his hurdles and eventually finished tailed off. The headgear is left off for his quick return but the suspicion is that he will be seen to better effect once he qualifies for a handicap mark.

See The Eagle Fly chf Harry Whittington f8-0-2 (57) 62
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-h}(0.71) 3/1 Cork Harbour 1st Selling Handicap Hurdle (88), Market Rasen 2003
The only newcomer in the race, See The Eagle Fly comes into the race on the back of an eight race flat career in Ireland for Thomas Cooper. Competing this summer in handicaps from ten to fourteen furlongs, she has some fair form to her name. This includes a neck second at Killarney where she looked most likely to win before being caught at the post by Dawn Over Owning. Curiously, these efforts tie in some Irish juvenile hurdlers as she mixed it up with Little Brother, Jeff Kidder and Differentiate - all of whom have ran with credit in the sphere. Those efforts entitle her to respect in this field but there are concerns over her attitude as she does not appear to be particularly willing to put her best foot forward when hitting the front. Only two ex-Thomas Cooper horses have been imported to compete in UK juveniles and one of them was the capable Zeb Spirit. Harry Whittington has a good record in the sphere with five of his twelve juveniles winning and two-thirds of them improving on their flat form. He also has three runners-up from the four juveniles he has sent to Fontwell. Free Eagle is having his first crop in the division but his sole runner to date was Ballinrobe third Perry Owens, and he is a son of High Chapparal who was a very successful sire of juveniles in his own right. There is not much on See The Eagle Fly's immediate damline but useful French juvenile Tin Soldier appears further back at 4/4 and damsire Verglas has had one winner from six to date. There are concerns about See The Eagle Fly's attitude and she does lack hurdling experience but her profile is still a respectable one nevertheless.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j4-1-3 (103) 95 105
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
Talking About You has a history of giving trouble at the start of her races but that improved to the point where she was able to emphatically shed her maiden tag here early in September. However, her petulant antics resurfaced last Saturday at Market Rasen which preceded her finishing a tired and distant third behind Soldier On Parade. The form of her victory at Fontwell gives her every right to be competitive once again although it is worth stressing that her supremacy was not much greater than the winning margin as she stopped very quickly when allowed to ease. Furthermore, with Sans Logique, a verified front runner, and See The Eagle Fly, a potential front runner, set to line up, Talking About You is unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead. Her chances may further diminish if the forecast rain gets into the ground.

Treaty Of Dingle bf Sean Curran f14-2-5 (67) 70 j1-0-1 (-) 82 92
Roderic O'Connor (Sakhee's Secret){6-b}(0.60) 4/1 Surrey Dancer 2nd Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G2), Newcastle 1994
The stablemate of Talking About You, Treaty Of Dingle was a consistent sort on the flat for Hughie Morrison and after winning a Lingfield claimer, changed hands for £12,000. Her hurdling debut at Plumpton was a respectable one and apart from one awkward jump, she put in a decent round and kept on well to the line. She can improve for the experience and the level of form she showed puts her within shouting distance in this company. However, she did show some keenness and her stamina is not assured for what could potentially be a thorough test.

Strong prospects
1. Balko Saint
Reasonable prospects
2. Big Jimbo
3. See The Eagle Fly
Feasible prospects
4. Talking About You
5. Treaty Of Dingle
6. Sans Logique
Moderate prospects
7. Full Secret
 
In the immortal words of legendary WWF commentator Jim Ross, "business is about to pick up" this Saturday as Quilixios is set to make his Irish debut in Gowran Park's 3-y-o hurdle. Stablemate Duffle Coat won't make things easy for him however and there will also be five other horses in the field. While the race's winners are not always of the highest echelons, they are invariably useful sorts including Imazulutoo, The Last Stand and Chief Justice who all followed up in Fairyhouse's graded contest in December. Burrenbridge Lodge, Lindenhurst, Sam Bass and Guitar Pete also competed in this race prior to moving on to better things. Gowran Park's average winning DIs for juveniles of 1.29 median and 1.55 mean are both higher than that of the average runner indicating that it is one of the easiest circuits in the country. With 30 of the 731 juveniles to have ran at the track since 2008/09 falling or unseating, it offers a fairly standard test of hurdling ability. The ground is set to be riding good and with only a few showers forecast between now and two o'clock Saturday, that does not look likely to change a great deal.

Eschewing the usual practice of previewing the runners in racecard order, it seems more appropriate to begin with the star attraction who has been perched near the top of the Triumph Hurdle markets since their inception. I have already written plenty on the horse so rather than laboriously paraphrase myself, I will repost my observations with an update at the end.

25/1 Quilixios bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 131
Maxios (Lomitas){16-c}(0.63) 3/1 Quicuyo 1st Handicap Chase (137), Doncaster 2012
The least fancied of Francois Nicolle's four runners, Quilixious ground down the long time leader to win from a well strung out field in the second division of the traditional curtain raiser, the Prix d'Essai des Poulains. The time was two seconds quicker than the first division and while it has yet to produce any winners, the second and fourth filled the same positions (in reverse order) in the Prix Go Ahead. Gordon Elliot has had two juveniles from Francois Nicolle in recent years and while neither won for him during their first seasons, both acquitted themselves well in the Fred Winter with Campeador falling when holding a strong chance at the last in 2016 and Coko Beach finishing runner up three years later. Maxios, another addition to the UK/IRE NH stallion ranks for 2020, as well as being another son of Monsun, has so far shown himself a fine sire of juvenile hurdlers. More than half of his offspring have won over obstacles with almost two thirds achieving RPRs exceeding 107 as well as having 71% improve for switching from the flat. Lomitas is also a very capable damsire of juveniles and both he and Maxios have enjoyed success with family 16-c. Incidentally, he and Paros are fairly closely related on the dam's side with Quilixios's fifth dam being the fourth dam of Paros.

Update
The way he won his sole outing in the Prix d'Essai des Poulains was very taking and his jumping was good throughout. Insofar as the form of that race since I made that post is concerned, the fourth placed I'm Walking came out best at the weights in a Prix Royal Junior which featured five previous winners, and fifth placed Losange Vert won a steeplechase for three-year-olds at Auteuil so will presumably be going to the Prix Congress as one of the favourites. The tailed off Chudamani has also won a little race of his own at Jarnac. The winning time of Quilixios' division was two seconds quicker than the one earlier on the card and the runner-up in that race, Raffles Face, was a respectable third in the Prix Robert Lejeune.

As pertains to Saturday's race
Gordon Elliott has won this contest twice since 2009 but that is from nine runners (two unseated early on) and his overall strike rate at the track with juveniles is little over ten percent. He does have the division's two top horses however, and his two entries here appear to have the race between them. Quilixios comes with a big reputation and it is most probably deserved although there has yet to be a single ex-French hurdler compete in the UK or Ireland so the quality of that division remains unknown. Furthermore, Quilixios's win came in heavy ground and while Maxios's offspring can go on good, there is a definite preference for ground with more give. The manner of Quilixios's Compiegne win was more a relentless drive than an explosive acceleration and although good ground around Gowran Park looks ideal for his stablemate, is presents demanding questions to Quilixios. If he is versatile enough to give convincing answers then he could be a classy horse. However, it would not harm his overall profile if he failed to win first time out for his new connections.

Duffle Coat grg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 124 127
Alhebayeb (Sadler's Wells){4-k}(1.40) 0.5 Starchitect 2nd Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2014
Duffle Coat was making his racecourse debut when winning at Punchestown and while he was naturally green, he still travelled and jumped like a seasoned professional. After settling in the rear for much of the race, he effortlessly progressed to the front rank on the approach to the straight. Taking the widest route on the final turn, he needed only hands and heels encouragement to lead before the last and he won going away from the field. Duffle Coat is a half-brother to the highly talented but ill-fated Starchitect along with winning hurdler Redemption Song. His granddam was a half-sister to the useful Rio De Janeiro as well as the dam of Royal Bond runner up Triplicate. Duffle Coat was a big drifter in the market beforehand but he could hardly have made a more favourable impression first time out. The bare form was some way off pattern class but it would still be as good as almost anything seen so far this year and received a boost early this week when the third and seventh upheld the form on their return to Punchestown. While it is dangerous to read too much into a solitary performance, it is difficult to find reasonable holes in his profile and the conditions are likely to be ideal here. Whether he can emerge as a better horse than Quilixios this season is a matter that can only be resolved by time. Nevertheless, strictly in the context of Saturday's race, he appears to have a strong chance of doubling his tally.

Little Brother bg J A Nash f10-1-2 (55) 57 j3-1-0 (-) 107 111
Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle, Ascot 1998
The third winning hurdler in the field, Little Brother earned his victory in an average maiden hurdle at Ballinrobe in the middle of August. He was tailed off on his return to the flat next time but was not far off his Ballinrobe form when a fourteen length fifth in a decent contest at Listowel two weeks ago. A horse who likes to race prominently, he looks like he might have his own way up although he can get headstrong and his jumping is not always fluent. He has reasonable prospects of running best of the rest but after thirteen starts, is thoroughly exposed and does not look good enough to beat either of the Elliott horses.

Londonofficecallin grg Miss Evanna McCutcheon f4-0-0 (50) 51
Alhebayeb (Lord Shanakill){13-e}(11.00) 5/1 Cezanne 1st Novices' Hurdle, Huntingdon 1999
Londonofficecallin finished no closer than eleven lengths to the winner in three maiden outings and was well beaten off a mark of 63 when last seen in a Killarney nursery over thirteen months ago. He was pulled out of two intended engagements last month, getting upset in the stalls at Galway and being found with a stone bruise ahead of a race at Tipperary. Apart from being related to some fair jumpers through his fifth dam, there are no notable hurdlers closer by and his trainer's sole juvenile failed to win in four attempts.

Made In Pimlico chg Brendan W Duke f7-0-0 (40) 47 j2-0-0 (-) 98 104
Dragon Pulse (Giant's Causeway){8-k}(1.25) no jumps relatives
Made In Pimlico came up against classic contenders in his first three maiden races but was beaten a long way on those occasions and failed to finish better than midfield in four nurseries off low marks. His trainer gets winners in this sphere and after pulling up quickly on his hurdling debut at Tipperary, outran odds of 125/1 on his latest outing at Listowel. Trying a cheekpiece and tongue-tie combination for the first time, he got in close to a few of his hurdles but stayed on to finish fourth, a length and a half ahead of Little Brother. He may be to confirm superiority over the aforementioned although it remains to be seen whether that anomalous performance was a fluke.

Meknas bg Denis Gerard Hogan Unraced
Gleneagles (Zamindar){14-f}(0.83) no jumps relatives
While initially trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Meknas failed to make the racecourse and was sold for 7,000 guineas at Tattersalls in July. His new trainer has a winners to runners rate of just 8.33% with juvenile hurdlers but has sent two to finish runner-up in this particular contest. Gleneagles has yet to be tested as a jumps stallion as his sole runner failed to produce as expected. Nevertheless, sons of Galileo can make sires of juveniles as demonstrated by the likes of Nathaniel, Soldier Of Fortune and Australia to name but a few. Zamindar has a fair 21.43% winner to runner rate in the sphere as a damsire but while there is some international black type along the damline, there are no hurdlers to be found.

Waterville Lady bf Mrs John Harrington f12-0-2 (65) 67 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Starspangledbanner (Marju){1-k}(0.71) 2/1 Gladiator King 1st Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2015
Jessica Harrington won this race in 2015 with Lake Champlain and her overall record in the sphere is a respectable one. Sixteen of her sixty-one juveniles since 2008/09 have been winners and two-thirds of her charges improve for the switch between codes. She is represented here by Waterville Lady whose hurdles debut saw her unseat at the second. A maiden after twelve starts on the flat, she has twice reached the frame, most recently when second off 65 in a nine furlong Tipperary handicap back in June. Since then however, she has finished nearer last than first in a pair of good ground handicaps while being beaten by over forty lengths combined. Starspangledbanner has yet to produce a jumps winner and Marju's record as both a sire and damside is a below average one in the sphere. Nevertheless, there are some capable jumpers on the damline including Gladiator King (2/1), Rock Relief (2/1) and Cardinal Walter (3/2). While her peak flat form is the best brought into this race, she did not endear herself while running loose at Listowel and with her profile being of a patchy nature, has plenty to prove for the time being.

Strong prospects
1. Duffle Coat
2. Quilixios (switch with Duffle Coat is ground softens)
Moderate prospects
3. Little Brother
4. Made In Pimlico
5. Waterville Lady
Negligible prospects
6. Meknas
7. Londonofficecallin
 
The Triumph Hurdle markets have changed shape somewhat since I last commented on them early in September. Paros shortening into 22/1 is the only real move but there have been several new additions to the list which I will assess below.

Since 2011, fourteen juveniles have appeared in the "Top 40 Prospects" of Mark Howard's 'One Jump Ahead', not including the two for this season. Both of those have recently been added to the Triumph Hurdle betting but while they are obviously included within this update, I will not mention which ones specifically so as to protect the integrity of the publication and the investment others have made in the product. And while it may be fairly obvious who those two horses are, I will only use my own observations in the write-ups and leave those of Mark Howard to the imagination. Of the ones that have appeared in previous editions, thirteen made the racetrack, nine won during their first season and all bar Great Tempo - winner of a Hexham contest as 1/25 favourite - achieved RPRs of 120 and above. Five of them made it to the Triumph Hurdle with Hargam faring best when third in the 2015 renewal.

33/1 Zanahiyr chg Gordon Elliott f4-1-1 (-) 80
Nathaniel (Marju){9-c}(0.53) 2/1 Zarinava 1st Doncaster Mares' Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
Zahahiyr had four runs on the flat for Michael Halford, all of which took place in maiden company. He made his racecourse debut in a seven furlong contest at the Curragh last October where he was a four and a half length sixth behind four pattern class horses including Irish Derby runner-up Tiger Moth. He was just under nine lengths ninth when returning to the Curragh in June where he finished behind classic winners Galileo Chrome and Serpentine. Stepped up to thirteen furlongs on soft ground at Navan, he failed by a length and a quarter to justify favouritism but was able to get off the mark last time out at Fairyhouse in early July. Racing over a mile and a half on good to yielding ground, Zanahiyr took up the running at the distance and lengthened well inside the final furlong to win by just over a length. Being a midsummer maiden race for older horses, it was not of the highest quality. Nevertheless, of the front seven who were clear of the remainder, are all rated at least 70 (three rated 80 or above) and can count two subsequent winners amongst themselves, so the standard is decent enough for flat recruits to the sphere. He has since been sold privately to run for Gordon Elliott who is the winningmost trainer of juveniles in Ireland. Twelve of the twenty-three juveniles who joined the yard from the flat after private transactions have won races including top-class types Farclas, Mega Fortune, Mitchouka and Clarcam. Horses whose careers began with Michael Halford have a 25.53% winners to runners rate and a very healthy 61.54% improvement rate. Nathaniel has made a fine start with his first three crops in the division with 47% of his offspring winning races, including the first and fourth in last season's Triumph Hurdle. Marju's record as a damsire is below average but his broodmares are still capable of producing useful sorts such as Ultimate and Lake Champlain. It is not unusual for horses bred by the Aga Khan to be related to useful jumpers and Zanahiyr is no exception. While his half-brother only managed to finish placed over hurdles, his dam is a half-sister to Doncaster Mares' Hurdle winner Zarinava and her half-brother Zarif twice finished runner-up in the Velka Pardubicka. Zanahiyr's fourth dam Zahra, daughter of the brilliant Petite Etoile, is the matriarch of a family that includes the likes of Zafarabad, Zarkandar, Zaiyad, Zaynar and Zaidpour.

33/1 Baladin de Mesc bg Gabriel Leenders j6-2-3 (68/149.6) 140
Choeur du Nord (Discover d'Auteuil){7}(x) 2/1 Miserable 1st Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2008
With six races over obstacles already, Baladin de Mesc is the most experienced jumper in the markets. After falling at the brook midway through a Clairefontaine steeplechase, he entered the Triumph Hurdle lists after winning the Listed Prix des Platanes on the first of September. There he beat four previous hurdles winners and he stepped up again on that performance when second in the Grade 3 Prix Robert Lejeune three weeks later. That race featured France's three leading juveniles by prizemoney and he emerged as strongest at the weights. While Baladin de Mesc's abilities are already established, a couple of observations can be made on his pedigree for posterity. Choeur du Nord is having his first crop of hurdlers of which Baladin de Mesc is the only winner from four thus far. His career saw him retire before the summer of his three-year-old career after two wins and a second over hurdles at Auteuil. A son of top National Hunt stallion Voix du Nord (Taquin du Seuil, Defi du Seuil, Espoir d'Allen), Choeur du Nord is also a half-brother to the dams of Benie des Dieux and Cokoriko. Baladin de Mesc's dam is a full sister to Prix Congress winner Miserable and is 3/3 on the damline with Supreme Novices' third Itchy Feet. Gabriel Leenders has been the source of three non-winning juveniles in the UK but while he has yet to have a runner on these islands, a trip to Cheltenham's November meeting has been reported. Baladin De Mesc has achieved a good standard over hurdles and patently has a touch of class although the fact that he may swerve the Prix Cambaceres suggests that he may not have the requisite talent to win a race like the Triumph Hurdle

33/1 Bring On The Night bg W P Mullins f3-2-0 FrF (92.4)
Gleneagles (Dubai Destination){2-d}(0.52) 3/2 Schelem 1st 3yo Hurdle, Dax 2020
Since the 2008/09 season, Andre Fabre has been the source of twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland. Twelve of those won during their first season over obstacles but while half of them were rated at least 85 on the flat, that class largely fails to translate with Fred Winter placed duo Alexander Severus and Saticon the most successful of such types. Nevertheless, Willie Mullins has a good record with juvenile hurdlers recruited from the French flat. Twelve of the twenty during the time period have been winners including high class sorts Petitie Parisienne, Burning Victory, Diakali, Saldier and Saglawy. Bring On The Night had three runs on the flat and was successful on his latest two starts. His debut came in a Chantilly maiden in early March where he was slow from the start and finished a never nearer eighth of ten. He was better next time however when a clear winner from a strung out field in a twelve furlong Compiegne maiden later that month. The runner-up, his better fancied stablemate on the day, has not won in four subsequent outings but is currently rated 82.5. Two flat winners have come out of that race, albeit in minor races at Clairefontaine and Tours, as well as a winning steeplechaser. Bring On The Night followed up in late May on the all-weather in a Deauville conditions race over 2500 metres. This was a more hard fought success and he finished three-quarters of a length ahead of a horse currently rated 85.8. The second and third have since won small races at Toulouse and Le Touquet. Bring On The Night's rating of 92.4 is rather difficult to justify but he has a good size to him along with a decent attitude. There are not many clues in his sirelines insofar as a hurdling career is concerned as his sire Gleneagles has yet to be tested, although Galileos can make decent sires in the sphere. Dubai Destination has only nine juveniles as a damsire but three of them have been winners including the useful Forth Bridge. The damlines are rather less encouraging however as apart from Schelem (3/2) winning a minor event at Dax, the few close relatives who have tried hurdling have achieved little.

40/1 Baron Samedi bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f9-4-0 (97) 107
Harbour Watch (Haafhd){1-l}(3.00) 3/1 Creekside 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (123), Ascot 2012
Since sacrificing his testicles in August for the greater good, Baron Samedi has improved beyond recognition and he recently completed a four-timer at Listowel off a mark thirty-two pounds higher than when when he began his winning sequence. The owners are yet to have a jumps runner and there has been no word that juvenile hurdling is on the radar for the time being. Should connections opt to go down that route then Baron Samedi's pedigree is a reasonable one as a third of his sire's juveniles have been winners, and while Haafhd has yet to have a winner as a damsire, he was useful in the division with his own progeny.

40/1 Youmdor bg W P Mullins f8-2-4 (82.5) 83
Youmzain (Kentucky Dynamite){2-s}(0.89) 3/1 Attiki Oddo 2nd Handicap Hurdle, Enghien 2012
Night And Day and Bring On The Night have already been mentioned as ex-French recruits for Willie Mullins, and Youmdor is another name that can be added to that list. After finishing down the field in a trio of maiden contests, Youmdor has finished first or second in all of his five starts since switching to handicaps. He broke his duck on his handicap debut just before Christmas at Chantilly where he produced a very late burst to grab victory on the line. He was twice runner-up at the same venue in the new year and filled that position for a third time in a ten furlong Saint-Cloud handicap in May, finishing late once again. His spell of seconditis was ended last time out however when he ran out a neck winner of a "Quinte+" handicap over ten furlongs at Deauville at the end of May. That race has not produced many winners although the third was able to win a similar contest at Compiegne two starts later. Youmzain has had five juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland and two of them have been winners including the ill-fated Saglawy who was third in the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown. Kentucky Dynamite has yet to be tested as a damsire but four of his five own juveniles in the UK were winners including Kentucky Hyden and Unanimite.

40/1 Busselton was already addressed earlier in the thread and has since been installed at 40/1 (initially 50/1). The only real update to his form is that the Prix Wild Monarch still has just the one subsequent runner from the first four (Hades), but he has since been able to win a steeplechase at Auteuil.

50/1 Punctuation bc Andrew Balding f7-1-3 (85) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,120), Cork 2003
As mentioned earlier in this thread, the Andrew Balding yard usually has a sizeable disperstion of its three-year-olds at the autumn sales but those who are sold are no likelier to go over hurdles than they are to race overseas or stay on the flat. Punctuation is still with Andrew Balding and until it is confirmed that he has joined a national hunt yard, he probably should not be listed for the Triumph Hurdle.

50/1 Duffle Coat has been covered in the preview for Saturday's race and is another available at 50/1. If he wins at Gowran Park, that price probably won't last very long.

100/1 Sefton Warrior also appears on the lists although the 100/1 quote looked very skinny even before his mediocre hurdling debut at Huntingdon yesterday.
 
There are a couple of interesting little races tomorrow. However, I am currently on a weekend away where my laptop's presence would have been considered rude. As such, the reviews for Friday's and Saturday's races will arrive in a few day's time and there will be no proper reviews for tomorrow's races. I have done a couple of prospects lists based largely on what I remember writing about these horses in the past.

Stratford 12:15
Strong prospects
1. Orchestral Rain
Reasonable prospects
2. Bam Bam
Feasible prospects
3. Nuriel
Moderate prospects
4. Jan Wellens
5. New Zealander
Negligible prospects
6. Cold War Steve
7. Jersey Grey

Killarney 14:05
Strong prospects
1. Crassus
Reasonable prospects
2. At War
3. On Guard
Feasible prospects
4. Varna Gold
5. Craic Eile
Moderate prospects
6. Boom Boom Boom
Negligible prospects
7. Belgoprince
8. Toughari
9. Thekeyisnottopanic
10. Londonofficecallin
11. Butterfly Lounge
 
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Preview review
The ground was accounted for in the introduction and the race would transpire to involve the only horses who would be suited by same. While Big Jimbo reportedly had more stamina than he actually possessed, Balko Saint had every right to go through the ground on breeding. See The Eagle Fly could have been given better prospects but was still given reasonable ones and her preview was more optimistic than her position in the early betting implied. It was also noted that she was not straightforward when in the lead which turned out to be much the case. Every other horse disappointed and reasons were given for such an eventuality beforehand so a satisfactory preview overall.

Race review
Despite the steady early gallop, the race was an attractional one and the field was essentially reduced to those who could handle the conditions. The winner effectively tried to pull herself up on the running but the runner-up was unable to take advantage of the situation due largely to his inexperience. The first two were obviously the best on the day and probably the two to take out of the race but beyond the context of such testing conditions, the reliability of the form can not be assured. Particularly as these efforts may leave a mark on these young participants going forward.

See The Eagle Fly achieved fair form at a modest level during eight runs on the flat in Ireland and essentially matched her best efforts on her hurdling debut. Initially held up in the rear, the slow tempo saw her drift towards a prominent position at separate stages during the race and was tracking the remaining leaders turning for home. While asked to lead after travelling nicely approaching the last, it was only a clean jump that saw her reach that position. She was reluctant to extend her advantage and only really galloped to the line as she could still her rival on turning her head. Apart from getting close to the fifth and missing the sixth, her jumping was clean and it was such a jump at the last that afforded her the race. This was not a bad debut effort as the runner-up had shown promise and she undoubtedly jumps and stays well enough for her to have a future in the game. She also boosted the credentials of her sire in the division who now has a winner and a placed hurdler from two runners. However, there can only be major concerns regarding her lack of willingness to run on with a lead which will leave her vulnerable to more enthusiastic rivals. 99

Balko Saint made a promising debut on his first racecourse appearance at Newton Abbot in early August in conditions which were unlikely to suit. Following a two month break, he returned to the track to post an improved effort on a very different surface. Apart from getting close to the fourth, he posted a good round of jumping until he skewed and landed wrong over the last which cost him the lead and valuable momentum. While he was not travelling better than the winner at the time, she was reticent about overtaking him in and it was largely greenness that prevented him from capitalising on the situation. Balko Saint is more a long term prospect than most in this division and although he does not appear to have the scope of a proper class horse, he has shown enough to suggest that he can win races as he matures. 103

Treaty Of Dingle is a dual winner on the flat and a consistent type at her level. She made a reasonable debut when third on good to firm at Plumpton but while she filled the same slot here, she was tailed off in the end. Her jumping was not as fluent as on her debut either and was never in a challenging position, only finishing third for passing a spent rival on the run-in. She has enough ability to be competitive at a low level but not when demands are placed on her stamina. 59

Talking About You won at this venue at the beginning of September but did not have as much in reserve as the manner of her victory suggested and finished tired when running at Market Rasen six days prior to this contest. Racing freely in the early stages, as per usual, her jumping was not her best and she went left at most of her hurdles. She was headed turning for home and was well beaten in the end. Talking About You has been consistent at her level during four hurdle races since the beginning of August but this was a major regression and she may benefit from a break before returning on more favourable ground. 37

Big Jimbo posted a career best effort when second behind Talking About You over this course and distance at the beginning of September. However, while the trip suited him on good ground, it was a different matter altogether in these conditions and was a tired horse by the end of the back stretch. He hit the sixth quite hard and there were several others where he was not entirely fluent so he may be seen to better effect on firmer ground. He does not look an obvious type in open company but was dropped a further two pounds off the back of this run which leaves him on a very workable mark if he is to be sent handicapping. 0

Sans Logique ran a fair race on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield even if it did not match his French flat form but his latest two starts have been disappointing. His jumping was erratic back at Sedgefield earlier in the week and while it was better here under a more patient ride, he was a tired horse from some way out. He has since been given a mark of 106 which is a little harsh based on the best of his hurdles efforts, but lenient on the best of his flat form. 0

Full Secret had only hinted at ability on the flat for Richard Fahey and while her jumping was not bad for a debutant at Plumpton, she was detached from an early stage. Racing more prominently here, she quickly lost her position with a circuit left to race and was pulled up after a tired jump three out. Her trainer has a good record in the sphere and Full Secret is not a bad jumper so she is not the write-off that her 125/1 starting price suggested. Nevertheless, her time and place is unlikely to be in open standard juvenile hurdles during this autumn or winter. 0

LUDLOW plays host to a juvenile hurdle tomorrow which has been held as a maiden contest each year since 2002. Despite its status, it is generally one of the best juvenile hurdles held at the Shropshire venue each season. Since 2008/09, it has been taken by some fairly useful types such as Ballyglasheen, Duke Street, The Statesman and most recently, Langer Dan. Sternrubin, Saint Jerome and Raven's Tower are other unsuccessful participants from previous renewals as was Fred Winter sixth Alikat who would later be the dam of The Liquidator. This year's edition contains several who were initially due to run at Stratford yesterday before that meeting was washed away including likely favourite Orchestral Rain, and a pair of interesting racecourse debutants. Ludlow's average winning DIs of 1.41 mean, 1.31 median, suggest that it is not an especially demanding circuit and the completion rate of 96.9% is one of the fairer in the country. The winning DIs decrease to 1.32 mean, 1.29 median for this particular contest which would reflect the increased class requirements.

Bam Bam chg Warren Greatrex Unraced
Trajano (Alamo Bay){2-d}(2.08) 2/0 The Dream I Dream four time Auteuil winner 1992/1993
Warren Greatrex has a respectable record in this sphere and his winners to runners rate of 30.43% is the second strongest in this field. He has saddled only the one unraced juvenile in Professeur Emery who after a slow start, would show respectable form without winning during the 2010/11 season. Bam Bam is another set to make his hurdling debut without prior racecourse experience but his profile rather lacks substance. His sire Trajano, by an Elusive Quality whose influence on juvenile hurdlers is rather poor, was no better than a good handicapper at distances of up to a mile and is yet to produce a winner over jumps from his small crops. Breeder Denis Grandin has produced a couple of minor jumps winners but is not especially prolific. Alamo Bay's broodmares have produced some good jumpers however, most notably Thyestes winner Invitation Only. Bam Bam's damline is not inundated with classy jumpers although his granddam was second in the 1993 Prix Ferdinand Dufaure - France's top race for four-year-old chasers - before producing triple hurdle winner Takis.

Cold War Steve chg Sarah-Jayne Davies f6-0-1 (55) 58
Lope De Vega (Sinndar){7-f}(0.90) 3/1 Balakan 1st Conditions Hurdle, Listowel 2008
Cold War Steve had six races on the flat for Roger Fell, the best of those efforts coming in a seven furlong novice stakes at Southwell last November which earned him a mark of 63. That rating was not a kind one and it has since dropped to 55 after thrice finishing well beaten in low grade handicaps during the summer. Lope De Vega's record as a sire in the division is average but Sinndar's is one of the best and while his exploits as a damsire does not match those as a sire, he is still reasonable in that regard. There are jumps winners on Cold War Steve's damline and his more distant relatives include top class types in Bannkipour (4/1) and Sanctuaire (5/3). Sarah-Jayne Davies has only the one winning juvenile from six runners although that did come at this venue when Big John Cannon won a four runner claimer in December 2013. There is enough to hint at an improvement for the switch to hurdling although probably not enough to be a threat in this race.

Current chf Dave Roberts f1-0-0 (-) 14 j2-0-0 (-) 60 64
Equiano (New Approach){8-c}(0.57) 2/1 First Buddy 5th Anniversary Hurdle, Aintree 2008
A cheap purchase out of Richard Hannon's yard, Current was well held in a pair of juvenile hurdles at Bangor and Market Rasen in July. Her jumping in those races was reasonable and has something resembling pace. However, she does not have the stamina or class for this type of race.

Derek Le Grand bg Grace Harris f8-0-1 (56) 64
Mukhadram (Manduro){9-c}(1.29) 2/1 Rock The Race 1st Prix Hardatit (L,Hcp), Auteuil 2016
Mukhadram's first crop of hurdlers includes two winners from four runners and Maduro's record as a damsire is an identical one which counts the decent Rocky Blue amongst its ranks. Derek Le Grand's dam is a half-sister to Rock The Race, a listed handicap winner at Auteuil, as well as a niece of Quinmaster who won the For Auction novice hurdle in 2007. The best of Derek Le Grand's flat form, specifically a second in a ten furlong Windsor handicap on good to firm in July, is respectable in the context of this field. However, he is held by Thunder King on his return to that track a fortnight later and his temperament (twice withdrawn after giving trouble at the start) does raise concerns.

Fraterculus chg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (79) 76 j3-0-2 (104) 91 95
Teofilo (Anabaa){5-f}(1.08) 6/7 Optimus Prime 2nd Novice Chase, Punchestown 2018
Following three reasonable outings on the flat for Jim Bolger, Fraterculus has shown hints of promise during the same amount of races over hurdles. While he has the size and scope to be competitive in this sphere, he has been rather let down by his greenness and a lack of fluency entailed by same. Fraterculus was pulled out of a handicap hurdle last week due to the ground and if underfoot conditions deteriorate at Ludlow, he could struggle once again. A tongue strap is set to be used tomorrow although this has no discernible benefit for the yard's runners first time out. Brendan Powell has only been used once in the past by Oliver Greenall but the jockey did put up a textbook ride on a juvenile last week at Huntingdon.

Nuriel bg Oliver Greenall Unraced
Nutan (Lavirco){8-f}(0.67) 2/1 Noble Hawk 1st 4yo Hurdle, Strasbourg 2006
A stablemate of Fraterculus, Nuriel is another runner set to make his racecourse debut tomorrow. While stallion Nutan's progeny have yet to be tried over hurdles, the 2015 German Derby winner's dam is a half-sister to top hurdler Melon. Lavirco is the damsire of Triumph Hurdle winner Defi du Seuil and Grade 2 winning juvenile French Made and was responsible for numerous Grade One jumpers as a stallion. A half-brother to five winners on the flat, Nuriel's dam is a full-sister to four-year-old hurdle winner Noble Hawk and half-sister to a winning juvenile hurdler in Germany. Oliver Greenall has yet to have a winning juvenile at Ludlow from twelve runners and his runners tend to improve with experience but he does school his youngsters well. Nevertheless, while Nuriel is still entitled to some respect on his breeding, the fact that he has already had a wind operation is not encouraging.

Orchestral Rain bg Dr Richard Newland f1-0-0 (-) 69 j2-0-1 (115) 111 111
Born To Sea (Val Royal){23}(2.43) 2/1 Crafty Codger 1st 3YO Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
Based on his hurdles run at Roscommon, Orchestral Rain was entitled to go off favourite for his UK/stable debut at Fontwell at the beginning of last month. However, given the relative quality of his previous form, his failing to land the odds can only be regarded as disappointing. The winner and runner-up at Roscommon have both since been winners and his effort suggested he had plenty of improvement in him. In fairness, his jumping during the race was fine and he only tired late on so he can still be forgiven that outing. Furthermore, Dr Richard Newland has a fine record in this sphere and his general 38.9% winners to runners rate improves to 60% at Ludlow with his five runners producing three wins and a second since 2012/13.

Theocrat bc Nigel Hawke f4-0-0 (65) 64
Teofilo (New Approach){8-f}(0.52) 1/1 Novus Aditus 5th Juvenile Hurdle, Taunton 2019
Nigel Hawke had a 40% winners to runners rate with ex-Jim Bolger juveniles going into this season and the two who fit that description for this campaign have both been winners. Theocrat is the latest such recruit to the sphere although he never made the track for the Coolcullen trainer and his four runs to date have been fair at best. A twelve length fifth to Coltrane on his debut in a Chepstow maiden was perhaps his best effort and while his finishing midfield in a Kempton novice stakes was respectable, his other runs have seen him finish tailed off including his latest start over two miles at Goodwood at the end of August. Teofilo (Tocororo, Theophilus, Broughton) has a good record in the sphere and Theocrat's damline is full of winning jumpers incliding Alterno (2/1), Authinger (3/1) and Idol's Lad (4/2) as well as useful jumps sire Aizavoski (3/2). Theocrat's flat form leaves something to be desired and entires do not have a good record in the sphere but his trainer and pedigree ensure that he can not be dismissed in this field.

Thunder King bg Amy Murphy f8-1-1 (64) 66 j1-0-1 (-) 83 86
Hunter's Light (Raven's Pass){1-x}(1.00) no jumps relatives
Amy Murphy has had a good season thus far with her juvenile hurdlers and Thunder King's debut at Southwell was not without promise. He was a twenty length second (booked for third but for a leader unseating at the last), and did finish tired but he reportedly lost a shoe and was still clear of the remainder including Fraterculus. Thunder King is not especially bred to be a jumper and while he is a winner on the flat, his resolve is not guaranteed. Furthermore, his trainer's rich vein of form has rather tapered off recently and she is without a winner since Solder On Parade scored at Market Rasen. Nevertheless, his overall profile is respectable at this level and he has the experience under his belt.

Strong prospects
1. Orchestral Rain
Reasonable prospects
2. Theocrat
3. Thunder King
Feasible prospects
4. Fraterculus
5. Bam Bam
6. Nuriel
Moderate prospects
7. Derek Le Grand
8. Cold War Steve
Negligible prospects
9. Current
 
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17:05 Ludlow 1m7f169y Class 4 Handicap Hurdle
Peat Moss bg Nigel Hawke f5-0-1 (47) 50 j3-1-1 (105) 91 105
Fracas (Dalakhani){14-c}(0.71) 4/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle, Leopardstown 1992
Nigel Hawke's strike rate with three-year-olds in handicap hurdles is a very healthy 25% since 2012. Last season, that rate was 50% and his sole juvenile handicapper this year was a respectable fourth of fifteen at Fontwell last month. This afternoon he saddles Peat Moss for the penultimate race on Ludlow's card, who comes here on the back of a win at Plumpton seventeen days ago. During his first two races over hurdles, Peat Moss had given the impression that he would be best served coming off a strong pace which is what he was provided at Plumpton. After a clean round of jumping, he made steady and consistent progress to snatch victory at the line from a promising newcomer of Colin Tizzard's. Ludlow is a fairly easy track and the distance will be roughly two furlongs shorter than at Plumpton. While there are a couple of potential frontrunners among Peat Moss's ten rivals, the pace angle might not be entirely optimal. Nevertheless, he shown a good attitude at Plumpton and his mark is a fair reflection of what he achieved that day.
 
Along with the weekend's Irish races and yesterday's race at Ludlow, there was also a slight backlog of handicap performances and a race from Compiegne to review. This will be clear right now which leaves the path clear for a preview of Saturday's exciting little race at Chepstow which will hopefully be posted by tomorrow morning.

Bannister 29/9/2020 Compiegne 3400m Heavy
https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2020-09-29/R3/C2
Since winning a moderate race at Southwell, Bannister's handicap rating has risen to an eye-watering 135. This was due to his finishing second at Compiegne at the end of September. The race, which was a fairly standard conditions event, was worth €18,240 to the winner (£16,653 on the day). This is over four times the amount Bannister earned for winning at Southwell, over 50% more than what Soldier On Parade collected in the season's most valuable juvenile to date and still exceeds the prize for the listed Wensleydale Hurdle set for the end of this month. Quite why the UK and Irish bookmakers are allowed to absolutely fleece the sport with impunity is a very unfortunate mystery.

Despite the relatively high level of prizemoney, Compiegne's contest was only of a fair standard without any pretentions of attracting the cream of France's crop. Favourite Harrisburg was the only other winner in the field after comprehensively taking a small race at Vichy. Piriac has form with recent imports Nassalam and Saint Sam but lost his chance here when all but falling two out. The winner Martadore was a near eleven length fifth to Raffles Face on his latest start at Auteuil in June. A race which also contained subsequent winning Auteuil chasers Hades and Losange Vert.

In the race itself, Bannister was fairly keen early and took up the running approaching the first. By the second, he was already a dozen lengths clear and more than doubled that advantage by the third. He was slightly slow over the fourth but was decent enough over the next two. Bannister began to tire in the back and this was reflected in his jumping as he went through the fourth last hurdle. Nevertheless, he still had a clear lead entering the straight and was still just in front when making a tired jump at the last. Headed within the final two hundred metres, he still battled on bravely and would only be beaten by half a length. Precisely what this form is worth is difficult to gauge. Racing Post gave him an RPR of 100 while the BHA put him up to 135 so the most accurate figure likely lies somewhere in between. Martador's Auteuil race is working out fairly well although he was coming back off his summer break and nothing out of that contest has an official French rating. This was clearly a career best effort from Bannister but it is difficult to imagine that he has improved by over two stone from Southwell so a mark in the mid 120s might have to suffice before he is again tested against UK horses. 123

Dragon Man 30/9/2020 Huntingdon
Dragon Man's starting price of 150/1 was a fair reflection of his chances beforehand as he was very unfavourably treated at the weights. After starting in midfield, he was soon racing up with the leaders on the outside but he was very quickly dropped at the seventh and was soon pulled up. To be fair to him, while he slightly dived at the third, clipped the fourth and jumped his last very sloppily, showed some fair hurdling. He might do better over shorter but there was still very little encouragement from a form perspective. 0

GOWRAN PARK 3/10/2020
Preview review
With the withdrawal of Quilixios, the race was a fairly straightforward one to assess. Duffle Coat was clearly superior to his rivals, Little Brother ran respectably with an uncontested lead, Made In Pimlico confirmed his Listowel performance, Waterville Lady did not jump well and Meknas matched his low expectations. There is not a great deal to reflect upon.

Race review
Quilixios's withdrawal deprived this contest of most of its interest but it was still good to see Duffle Coat supplement the impression he made on his debut. The runner-up and the third essentially reproduced their Listowel efforts so the form should be reliable. There were a couple of minor mid-air collisions in the early stages but nothing so drastic as to affect the outcome.

Duffle Coat made a good impression when winning on his racecourse debut at Punchestown and confirmed that he is an above average sort here. Prior to reaching the straight, his jumping was good and at times, beautiful. He made a couple of errors at the final two flights but those can be attributed to the shifting through the gears that would be less prevalent in a more truly run race. He was a little green when shaken up on the approach to the last but was otherwise a good traveller and his superiority was far greater than the winning margin. Strictly on form, this was a slight regression but he would almost certainly have ran to a better mark in a better race. There is a lot to like about Duffle Coat and though the season is still in its embryonic phase, he has the most potential of those seen thus far. After the race, Gordon Elliott suggested either a winners of two at Punchestown or Down Royal, or even the Wensleydale as his next target. 120

Made In Pimlico had shown only modest form on the flat as a two-year-old and was pulled up quickly halfway through his hurdling debut at Tipperary. However, at Listowel he surpassed anything he had previously achieved to finish a respectable fourth behind Longclaw. While there was the danger of that effort being a fluke, he was inexplicably sent off at odds of 50/1 here. Despite getting slightly close to a few, his jumping was the second best in the field and he travelled well throughout. He had to be switched out wide in the straight before getting a clear run after the last but while he was never catching the winner, he ran on strongly to be a decisive runner-up. He has shown enough to win a moderate contest over hurdles and with his rekindled enthusiasm and an appreciation of a trip, his flat rating of 40 could be very lenient in something like a ten furlong handicap. 110

Little Brother has now had four starts over hurdles and his jumping has not really improved since his debut. He is best setting his own gallop on an easy circuit and given that is what he had here, this is probably the ceiling of his ability. He will likely continue to struggle under the penalty he acquired when winning at Ballinrobe and appears to require fairly specific conditions. Any further progression will have to come from more fluent hurdling. 115

Meknas left the Sir Michael Stoute yard for 7,000 guineas before seeing a racecourse and his profile is not particularly appealing in this discipline. He was always in rear and was close at all but one of his hurdles before finishing tired and completely tailed off. He can build on this performance but the foundations are very low. 18

Waterville Lady came into the race with the best flat form, albeit at a moderate level, but did not impress either before or following her unseating early on at Listowel. Once again, her jumping was very poor here as she was either hesitant, low, big or close over her hurdles and dived both left and right at a couple of them. When she clipped the top of the last before stumbling on landing, she was already held in fourth. There is little encouragement for the discipline on her sirelines so a successful future over hurdles looks unlikely. Nevertheless, it is possible to be optimistic if one considers that the yard is not in the best form and Waterville Lady may do better on softer ground. 90

KILLARNEY 5/10/2020
Preview review
Due to my spending the weekend with my fun friend, it was deemed best to not have the laptop eat into the quality time. As such, the preview took the form of a prospects list effectively drawn from memory based on what I had previously written about the participants. In the absence of Crassus, the top three prospects filled first, second and fourth positions in a slightly different order. On Guard had been previewed in a sales post where reticence about his pedigree and attitude was abound along with the difficulties of improving ex-John Gosden horses. Varna Gold has been deemed to be a capable animal in the sphere but still had inconsistencies to overcome. At War jumps well from the front but the more patient tactics employed were probably detrimental to his fluency. Belgoprince had yet to be seen to best effect, Londonofficecallin did not have an encouraging profile and Thekeyisnottopanic has an amusing name. It is impossible to assuage quite how I might have previewed the race with more time and information at hand but the key elements pertinent to the race had already been raised which is quite pleasing.

Race review
Prior to Monday's race, Killarney had hosted eight three-year-old hurdles since 2008. All of them took place in late August so direct trends were not available for this particular contest. Nevertheless, races at Killarney had high average winning DIs and moderate seasonal RPRs making them fairly undemanding in terms of both class and stamina. Monday's race being a maiden was indicative of the race's overall quality and the absence of Crassus and the underperformance of the 86 rated On Guard emphasised the lack of strength in depth. The pace was fairly steady and the winning time was slower than both the mares maiden and the low grade handicap later on the card. Nevertheless, the winner had shown enough to take a race of this nature and the front three all had fair form over hurdles so the form does look reasonably sound.

Varna Gold had ran three times over hurdles going into this race and he put that experience to good use. While his debut effort was fairly tepid, he was better on his next start when left in a distant second at Down Royal and may have finished third on his latest outing at Punchestown but for falling at the last. His jumping had improved with each outing and apart from getting slightly close to the fifth and sixth, put in much the cleanest round here. Always racing handily, he joined the leader approaching three out and with a succession of smooth leaps, he eased into an unassailable lead and was under no firmer instruction than a shake of the reins. His first win in fifteen starts, this was also his best performance from a form perspective. While Varna Gold was prone to inconsistency on the flat, he appears to be enjoying himself in his new vocation and this victory is very much a well earned one. Through collateral form, he would likely have found Crassus a bridge too far and good though this performance was, it was not the strongest contest and he could find things more difficult under a penalty. 115

At War is a half-brother to the useful Baltimore Rock and was rated as high as 76 while racing on the flat at up to a mile. Although he was well beaten on his hurdles debut at Punchestown, he jumped well for a newcomer and rather confirmed his potential when third to Longclaw at Listowel two weeks ago. However, running in a first time hood, his fluency was undermined by a more restrained ride which saw him pull hard early and miss a few of his hurdles. He did not appear to finish too tired and may benefit from a return to more positive tactics in the future. This was another fair effort and he can be competitive at this level in the right conditions. 104

Belgoprince had winning flat form in the French provinces and a profile which suggests he can do well as a hurdler. However, his hurdling debut at Roscommon, laden with poor jumping and a lethargic ride, roused an unhealthy scepticism and similar sentiments were engendered next time at Ballinrobe. Following a lacklustre run at the Curragh, Belgoprince returned to hurdling with another questionable effort. While he made a very clumsy error at the first, his jumping did improve and was travelling strongly turning for home. However, after an untidy leap three out, he was pulled from a clear position to jump among a tight bunch at the penultimate flight. From there, he was pulled out of a gap in order to get a more direct view of the runner-up's hind quarters before jumping out of his jockey's hands at the last. This performance is worth a mark in the low 100s on form, but deserves an official rating of at least 150. 103+?

On Guard cost connections 52,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale and his win at Yarmouth in June was the standout piece of flat form in this field. However, his temperament saw him finish tailed off in the Queen's Vase and he was very fresh in the first half of this contest. He wandered into most of his early hurdles and almost refused at the second. While he was able to settle eventually, he was a tired horse by the end of the race. Although Invincible Spirit is not a particularly successful sire in the division, there are some decent jumpers on the damline. However, for all the class that ex-John Gosden horses can bring to the sphere, it is rare that much of it is carried over hurdles and it is notoriously difficult for improvement to be extracted from these types. On Guard showed enough promise to suggest he can be competitive at this level if he becomes more fluent but he would be breaking a mould if he is to be much better than average in this discipline. 96

Londonofficecallin had been off the track since last August prior to making his hurdling debut here. His pedigree is not an obvious one for the discipline nor is his trainer especially prolific in the sphere. Nevertheless, while he was close to the first couple of hurdles and untidy at the last, his jumping was reasonable and he kept on well enough to finish a twenty length fifth. This effort was not devoid of promise but he still needs to improve before he is competitive at this level. 93

Boom Boom Boom had only moderate form to show for four runs on the flat with Stuart Williams and was sold for 6,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. His new trainer's record in the sphere is below average but he does get winners and Boom Boom Boom's dam is a half-sister to Cubomania. His jumping was big and he was also close and steady at several of these but he was not beaten out of sight. He has fair way to progress if he is to be a threat in ordinary company but there is some scope for improvement with experience. 89

Toughari brought a rating of just 53 after six runs on the flat but his trainer has a decent record with juvenile hurdlers. He did not jump with any real fluency on his hurdling debut however, and is another with plenty to find for the time being. 87

Thekeyisnottopanic had shown little in three flat outings and though his jumping was fine on his hurdles debut at Tipperary in August, it was less fluent here. He did finish closer to the winner on this occasion but offered little immediate promise. 62

Butterfly Lounge showed only moderate promise at Redcar over six furlongs for Richard Fahey back in June and was well beaten over the same trip at Ayr in August. She jumped slowly on her first run in Ireland and was detached with a circuit to go before finishing tailed off. 0

LUDLOW 7/10/2020
Preview review
Orchestral Rain's win marked the first winning top prospect in the UK since the seventh of August which is pretty neat. The race was a trappy affair with several horses looking like potential winners and Orchestral Rain looking unconvincing until asserting after the last. Nevertheless, an ugly win is still a win. Fraterculus had the potential to run as he did and has matured somewhat since last seen. Current was noted as a fair jumper with a hint of speed but her performance was still completely unexpected. Theocrat ran with credit and the newcomers had patchy profiles, although while Nuriel's jumping was certainly safe, it was not necessarily good.

Race review
Traditionally a relatively useful contest, this year's renewal was built more on promise than on substance. While several of these have the potential to win races, they were very much unfurnished in their nature and would need to develop both their aptitude and attributes. All of the runners made errors and with the winning time over five seconds slower than the Class 4 handicap, the pace was not a thorough one. Orchestral Rain's jumping was his poorest seen to date and the fact that Current led briefly after the last casts further doubt on the reliability of the form.

Orchestral Rain was keen early, steadied into the first, got in close to the next three and was awkward at all of the hurdles in the straight. He never really travelled and drifted to 23/1 in running yet was able to prevail on the run-in and was ultimately a decisive winner. He had shaped like more of a stayer on his first two starts but finishing tired at Fontwell while taking this off a modest gallop suggests this perspective should be reassessed. This was only his fourth racecourse appearance having making his debut in mid-July so he would still be short of the finished article. The performance does not match his Roscommon debut and while he can progress from here, his capacity is beginning to look more limited. 104

Fraterculus had shown hints of promise on his first three starts over hurdles although his efforts were hindered by his greenness. However, he put up a much more assured performance from the front here and he travelled and jumped as well as ever. While he was slightly awkward at the first, he settled into a good rhythm until pecking on landing three out. Fraterculus composed himself at the penultimate flight but was untidy over the last and slipped slightly on landing. This error probably did not cost him the race as he had ample opportunity to seize the initiative approaching the last and the winner was pulling away even after he regained his stride on the run to the line. Notwithstanding, this was his best effort over hurdles to date and he is capable of winning a moderate race if he maintains this improvement. 103

Current had been beaten over forty lengths at both Bangor and Market Rasen and while she had shown some aptitude and pace, looked nothing like a horse who could be competitive in any open company. However, while she was slow at a few of these and looked like getting dropped early on, she was also good over the third and sixth and made sufficient headway to lead briefly over the last. It was only there that her lack of stamina told but she was still able to hold on to third place. The minimum trip on good to firm is probably as sharp as it will get for juvenile hurdlers before the spring and Current would be unlikely to find conditions as favourable as these any time soon. Nevertheless, this shows that she does have some amount of ability. 94

Theocrat is bred to potentially be better over hurdles than on the flat and is in the right hands to accomplish that goal. He was keen early on and was big at the third while being slow at the sixth. Nevertheless, he showed enough to build on and as he was rather one paced on the run in, should be able to leave this behind as he develops into his frame. 100

Thunder King was the only previous winner in this field courtesy of a win in a Windsor handicap at the end of July. Although he was beaten twenty lengths on his jumps debut at Southwell, it was still an effort of some potential and he was able to build on that yesterday by virtue of his being more competitive. He was rather messy at a few of his jumps however and his resolve is still up for debate so while he has some ability, he is not an obvious winner in waiting. 97

Derek Le Grand's best flat form entitled him to respect in this company and his pedigree makes some appeal. Starting at 11/2 having been 33/1 the previous evening made him the best backed horse in the field but he was diving awkwardly to his right from the outset and finished tailed off. 74

Nuriel was making his racecourse debut and there were some positives in his pedigree. However, his wind had already been done and while he was 9/1 in the morning, had drifted to 40/1 at the off. Held up in the rear, he was very cautious over his hurdles and was never able to get into the contest. While he looks assured of a clear round wherever he goes next, he needs more experience before his abilities can be properly assessed. 73

Cold War Steve had shown little this season in three flat handicaps and while there is potential in his pedigree, he was completely unfancied in the market. Prominent early, he wandered into the third flight and was slow over the last couple in the back before finishing tired. 62

Bam Bam was another making his racecourse debut and was the more prominent debutant in the market. However, after steadying and stumbling at the first, was never out of the rear and was the first to get detached before pulling up entering the straight. 0

Peat Moss 10/7/2020 Ludlow
His yard does well with juveniles in handicaps and Peat Moss was vying for favouritism in the market before the off. However, the slow early pace did little to help him settle as he was making mistakes early on and getting reminders with a lap to go. Even though the pace picked up shortly after the first, Peat Moss was never travelling and although he moved with some purpose turning for home, was soon a beaten horse. He is capable of better and while this was disappointing, the muddling early gallop is a reasonable excuse for the time being. If his mark drops as a result then he will be interesting in a more suitable race. 94
 
That's gotta be... That's gotta be Hell Red! While business did not pick up last Saturday after Quilixios' withdrawal, there is another chance for it to pick up this Saturday as Hell Red is set to make his UK debut at Chepstow. The contest is traditionally the first proper juvenile of the season and has been the launchpad of many useful types over the years. Previous winners include Katchit, Far West, Franchoek, Adrien du Pont, Olofi and Karezak while the likes of Reve de Sivola, Sceau Royal, Sir Psycho and Quel Destin have also been participants. The average winner's seasonal RPR of132 is also one of the strongest in the country. The race itself is challenging not only in terms of class but also of stamina. Chepstow's time per furlong figure is the slowest in the country and the race's average winning DIs of 0.62 median, 0.67 mean are also telling. The quality of flat form brought into this race is low and while there are a some jumps types with some potential, the interest predominantly revolves around Hell Red. As with last week, Hell Red will break the alphabetical order and be the first horse assessed.

Hell Red grg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 (-) 118
Martaline (Muhtathir){1-t}(0.45) 1/1 Hell Boy Grande Course de Haies de Compiegne (G3), Compiegne 2019
The Prix Rush is a contest for hurdling debutants and has featured some very decent sorts over the years including Pic d'Orhy, Goliath du Berlais, Master Dino, Terrefort, Smashing, Esmondo, Baby Mix, Sam Winner, Twinlight, Balko, Cerium, Vol Solitaire and Robin des Champs. The first two from this year's renewal, held back in March, have both joined Paul Nicholls and Hell Red currently sits above new stablemate Monmiral in the Triumph Hurdle lists. Only two winners have come out of that race, including Martador who recently beat Tom George's Bannister at Compiegne. Nevertheless, fourth placed Hirta was a creditable fourth in an Auteuil handicap on Wednesday off a mark of roughly 135. By the late Martaline, one of France's quality jumps stallions, Hell Red is a full-brother to the useful Hell Boy, half-brother to listed handicap hurdle winner Hell's Queen and is out of a half-sister to Baan Rim Pa who won the Grade Two Prix Leon Rambaud in 2011. Third dam Battani substantiates the juvenile credentials by being the dam of Me Voici, winner of the 2009 Finale, and the granddam of 2013 Anniversary winner L'Unique. Historically the path from Guillaume Macaire to Paul Nicholls has been trod by the likes of Master Minded, Twist Magic and Silviniaco Conti while Sametegal, Frodon and Solo have helped maintain the prestige of said tour in more recent years. Paul Nicholls has won this particular race seven times from his last thirteen runners and his four runners-up were beaten by Katchit, Franchoek, Gumball and Montestrel.

Billy The Squid bg Fergal O'Brien f3-0-0 (47) 34 j5-0-2 (107) 94 99
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
Billy The Squid showed next to nothing on the flat in three starts for George Scott and looked similarly limited on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen at the end of July. Nevertheless, in his four subsequent outings over hurdles, he has been a credit to Fergal O'Brien and would be coming into this on the back of three consequtive seconds but for unseating at Southwell early last month. His latest effort saw him beaten just over four lengths at Perth and though his jumping is not entirely fluent and he has a habit of hitting flat spots, he is nothing if not consistent. He has largely been exposed as no better than average and there is no reason to assume that he can trouble Hell Red. Nevertheless, he should give another honest account of himself and is capable of running into a place.

Bourbali bg Colin Tizzard j1-0-1 (-) 94 105
Sinndar (Saint des Saints){1-b}(1.18) 2/1 Tamarinbleu 1st Clarence House Chase (G1), Ascot 2008
Sinndar's record with juvenile hurdlers is exceptional as is that of Saint des Saints. Bourbali is out of a Saint des Saints mare who has produced a winning hurdler and whose own dam won a handicap at Auteuil. She is also a half-sister to Tamarindor who won his first two outings in juvenile hurdles at Pau along with Tamarinbleu who make a winning racecourse debut in an Ascot juvenile hurdle ahead of a top class career. His pedigree is tailor made for the discipline and he made a most promising start to his career at Plumpton three weeks ago. While his inexperience caused him to make a few novicey errors, his jumping was decent in the main and he looked the likeliest winner until he was caught on the line. The winner failed to frank the form in a handicap earlier this week but there were reasons for his underperformance. Good to firm at Plumpton was unlikely to suit Bourbali and he should appreciate Saturday's conditions. While Colin Tizzard is better known for staying chasers, his record in the division is decent and he saddled Catch The Cuban to finish second in this race last season.

Hector De Sivola bg Nick Williams j1-0-0 (-) 83 69
Noroit (Montjeu){9-e}(0.42) 1/1 Espiegle De Sivola 1st Claiming Hurdle, Hyeres 2017
One of the horses listed at the end of Hell Red's assessment was not like the others. Montestrel was a shock 20/1 winner of this race in 2018 and he was trained at the same yard as Hector de Sivola. Hector de Sivola made his sole racecourse appearance in the season's opening juvenile hurdle at Newton Abbot back in July where he was sent off the 4/5 favourite. After being violently hampered at the first, he never travelled thereafter and while there was some fair jumping through the race, he finished a thirty length fifth. Provided that experience did not sour him, it would be entirely appropriate to ignore that run. The yard had a runner-up at Fontwell last week and it is interesting that Hector de Sivola returns in the same race they ran Reve de Sivola, Pistolet Noir, Urbain de Sivola and the aforementioned Montestral.

Jersey Grey grg Alexandra Dunn f5-0-0 (48) 52
Rajsaman (Peintre Celebre){16-h}(0.74) 0.5 Grand Banks 120 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2018
Jersey Grey had five runs on the flat for Jamie Osborne but never finished any better than seventh and was last seen tailed off in a two mile Chepstow handicap in early August. His new trainer has saddled sixteen juvenile hurdlers without any of them winning a race from thirty-five attempts. Jersey Grey's half brother was a winner in France and his dam is a half-sister to multiple jumps winner Sure Josie Sure and the popular flat stayer Geordieland. Furthermore, Rajsaman has had five winning juveniles in France and Peintre Celebre's record as a damsire is above average by all measures. Nevertheless, it would still be a remarkable achievement if Jersey Grey could provide his trainer with her first winner in the division on Saturday.

Lustleigh bc Dan Skelton Unraced
Kayf Tara (Midnight Legend){11-d}(0.89) 1/0 My Petra 1st 1965 Chase (G2,136), Ascot 2008
Dan Skelton has sent out seventeen juvenile hurdlers making their racecourse debuts and only one of them, the useful Langer Dan, won at any point during their first seasons. Not many will have been as nicely bred as Lustleigh however. He is a son of the very useful My Petra, herself a full sister to the equally talented duo of Midnight Appeal and Lake Legend. A full-brother to winning novice My Dance and half-brother to winning stayer Cushuish, Lustleigh is by the top jumps stallion Kayf Tara. However, while famed for his exploits with the likes of Thistlecrack, Carruthers and Special Tiara, Kayf Tara has had only two winning juveniles. Katies Tutor was the latest in November 2006, and was the only one to do so at the age of three. Unraced horses aside, Dan Skelton's record in the division is very good and while Lustleigh is more a store horse than a juvenile, it will be interesting to see how he fares nevertheless.

Phoenix Aquilus bc Seamus Durack f4-0-2 (69) 71
Slade Power (Ad Valorem){31}(1.50) 2/1 Tiger Roll 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Phoenix Aquilius is the highest rated of those with flat form and his latest effort in a Kempton handicap back in August might be the pick of his four runs. The form of that race is fairly standard but he looked straightforward enough and was a one-paced rather than laboured sixth. Slade Power is not an obvious jumps stallion although one of his two runners in the sphere was a winner. The pedigree reveals a more interesting relative as his dam is a half-sister to Tiger Roll who won the 2014 Triumph Hurdle and a few other races afterwards. She is also a niece of the useful Khachaturian and a daughter of On Air who was fourth in the 1994 Kennel Gate. Seamus Durack does not have many juvenile hurdlers but three of his nine charges in the sphere have been winners and 75% of them improve for the switch between codes. Phoenix Aquilis has been set a tough task for his hurdling bow but he is not without a credible profile.

Sandyburg bg Harry Whittington Unraced
Sageburg (Craigsteel){13-c}(0.33) 3/1 Lucky Spirit 1st Handicap Hurdle (94), Gowran Park 2005
Harry Whittington has a 46.15% winners to runners ratio with juvenile hurdlers which is second only to Paul Nicholls in this field. However, all of them had flat or French hurdling form prior to their initial campaigns. Sageburg has not sired any winning juveniles in the UK or Ireland but he has a very good record with such types in France. While there are no notable jumpers nearby on the damline, useful sorts such as Erzadjan (4/1) and Ebaziyan (4/3) can be found further back.

The Imposter bg Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 51
Authorized (Bertolini){20-a}(0.88) 2/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
Nigel Hawke has had two winning juveniles thus far this season and Authorized is one of the elite sires in the division. However, Currahee is the only closely related jumper on the damline and The Imposter's sole flat outing came when a fifteen length tenth after being slowly away in a Chepstow maiden. The yard sent Repetitio to finish third in this race last season but there needs to be more evidence before The Imposter can be considered to be anything but in this company.

Strong prospects
1. Hell Red
Reasonable prospects
2. Bourbali
Feasible prospects
3. Hector de Sivola
4. Phoenix Aquilius
5. Lustleigh
6. Sandyburg
Moderate prospects
7. Billy The Squid
Negligible prospects
8. The Imposter
9. Jersey Grey
 
Along with Hell Red, a few other horses in the Triumph lists have upcoming entries. Baladin de Mesc (33/1) is set to line up in a listed steeplechase at Auteuil tomorrow afternoon at 14:00 local time (13:00 in the UK/Ireland/Portugal/Faroe Islands/Sierra Leone etc). The first and third from the Prix Kargal (a.k.a the second and third from the Prix Weather Permitting) are among his opponents as is I'm Walking (fourth to Quilixios and second to Heros d'Ainay) who will be making his chase debut.

On Tuesday at Punchestown, Duffle Coat (50/1) and Quilixios (25/1) are among the entries in a winners-of-two. The pair were set to meet at Gowran Park last week but Quilixios was withdrawn due to the ground. Then on Wednesday, Midnights Legacy (33/1) could make his hurdling debut and while he has been beaten on his last two starts on the flat, his story is an interesting one. Possible opponents at this stage include the impressive Cartmel winner Naizagai, First Impression, an 89 rated newcomer for John Quinn from the family of Fred Winter fourth Kazlian, and Camahawk, a Tim Easterby trained Camelot half-brother to Fred Winter winner Hawk High.
 
CHEPSTOW REVIEW
Preview review
Hell Red's potential class was very conspicuous, Phoenix Aquilius was a huge price given his profile and Billy The Squid lacked a bit of fluency, hit a flat spot but was capable of running into a place without threatening the winner. Bourbali was slightly disappointing but his being hampered at the second did not look pleasant and the ground could have been softer for him. It is not often that I am pleased with a preview in hindsight but I certainly was in this instance.

Race review
Taking out the winner, it was still a fair enough contest but Hell Red looked far superior to everything else seen this season. There was an incident at the second where Billy The Squid hit Bourbali quite hard in mid air which may have affected the latter's performance. Otherwise, the quality of jumping was decent from most of the field and the pace was an honest one. The winning time was respectable relative to the Class 2 handicap and faster than any of the previous ten runnings by upwards of four seconds. Indeed it was over seven and a half seconds quicker than when Sceau Royal and Adrien du Pont fought out the finish of the 2015 edition on good ground which bodes very well in terms of both class and pace as well as being indicative of the speedy surface.

Hell Red came into the race as the better fancied of the Nicholls horses in the Triumph lists, including his Prix Rush victor Monmiral. During the race, he settled quickly in the front and was clean throughout. When the pace picked up turning for home, he was electric and while he was slightly close to the penultimate flight, it did not affect his momentum. He wandered slightly approaching the last and rather dived at the flight but this merely suggests that he can improve further with experience. Hell Red, with his enthusiasm, aptitude and speed, looked like an alien compared to everything else seen this season. His superiority over his rivals is far greater than the winning margin and the only question is to what extent. He did not win the race hard held but he was never asked to extend out of second gear either and with the race in safe keeping after the last, was eased approaching the line. Naturally, the instinct is to not get carried away by a solitary performance in early October. Nevertheless, since 1983/84, twenty-one horses who placed in the first three in the Triumph made their hurdling debuts prior to October including five winners, and Far West won this race in 2012 prior to finishing runner up at the festival later that season. Calling the winner at this juncture is impossible but the 20/1 still available is very fair considering the obvious talent that this horse possesses. 135

Phoenix Aquilius was the highest rated flat horse having been placed twice in that sphere in four runs. While Slade Power is not a classic jumping stallion, his record in the division is respectable and Phoenix Aquilius is related to the likes of Tiger Roll and Khachaturian. Furthermore, the trainer has done well with his small number of juvenile hurdlers so an improvement was not unexpected ahead of his hurdling debut. Settled in the rear, his jumping was compromised by some bunching early on but he was clean when finding more room and made good headway throughout. While he was never going to threaten the winner, he was best of the remainder and led home a pair of horses who already had respectable form in the division. This was a fine effort from a debutant, particularly one with his anatomy still in tact, and an ordinary race should be well within his scope if he is happy being in front at the business end of affairs. 112

Billy The Squid is the most experienced in the field and while he has yet to win a race, has been a credit to his connections. Once again lacking some fluency and being the first off the bridle, he plugged on in his customary fashion to run into third place. This race had been his target for a while and his trainer's faith was repaid with a new career best effort. Quite whether he would be a safe conveyance to win a race warranted by his abilities is questionable but he should continue to be a consistent and admirable sort. 111

Bourbali was highly promising on his debut at Plumpton and with a profile that suggested inevitable improvement, looked the danger horse coming into the race. However, he was slightly keen early and after steadying into the first, jumped left at the second where Billy The Squid crashed directly into his hint quarters. While this did not appear to affect his general wellbeing, particularly as he jumped well thereafter, the impact was certainly enough to leave an impression. Nevertheless, he still plugged on for a respectable fourth place and with more favourable ground and a less dramatic journey, should be able to step up on this effort. 108

Jersey Grey had only moderate form on the flat for Jamie Osborne and was representing a yard with an uninspiring record in the division. Notwithstanding, there are enough clues in his pedigree to suggest he can fare better in this discipline and following a clean round of jumping, put up a respectable debut performance. Lofty ambitions may have to be kept on the shelf but there was enough to suggest that he can be competitive in an ordinary contest. 101

Hector de Sivola could be forgiven his debut outing at Newton Abbot and was representing a yard with a fine record in this race. However, while this was a creditable effort in isolation, he did not give the impression that he is anything out of the ordinary at this juncture. He was green early on and made a couple of slight errors so he is still entitled to improve. 100

Sandyburg was making his racecourse debut and represented a yard with a good record in the sphere. His profile, while respectable, did not leap off the page and although his jumping was fine save for being slightly awkward at the fifth, he did not make much of an impact in the race itself. Notwithstanding, there was noting disheartening in this performance and Sandyburg can be seen in a better light with the experience under his belt. 96

The Imposter represented a yard that has done well with its juveniles this season. However, he showed little on his sole flat outing at this venue and it was much the same here. He is by a top stallion in the division whose progeny are better with more give in the ground so it would be too soon to write this horse off entirely. 57

PUNCHESTOWN PREVIEW
Business very much picked up at Chepstow on Saturday and it may do so again at Punchestown tomorrow as Quilixios is once again set to make his Irish debut. Tomorrow's contest was traditionally a maiden up to 2016 but with Gimli's Rock being its classiest winner during that period, it still saw the introductions of Clarcam and His Excellency. It was taken by Espoir d'Allen in 2017 and last year by A Wave Of The Sea and with tomorrow's inclusion of Quilixios, the race could be on its way to becoming a firmly established launchpad. The average winning DIs at Punchestown of 1.00 median and 1.26 mean are lower than those of the average runner which stand at 1.27 and 1.54 which along with seconds per furlong times, indicate that the track offers a solid stamina test. That it ranks forty-sixth on the 'clear round' table also suggests that good jumping is an important asset. The ground is forecast to be yielding.

Quilixios bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 131
Maxios (Lomitas){16-c}(0.63) 3/1 Quicuyo 1st Handicap Chase (137), Doncaster 2012
The least fancied of Francois Nicolle's four runners, Quilixios ground down the long time leader to win from a well strung out field in the second division of the traditional curtain raiser, the Prix d'Essai des Poulains. The time was two seconds quicker than the first division and while it has yet to produce any winners, the second and fourth filled the same positions (in reverse order) in the Prix Go Ahead. Gordon Elliot has had two juveniles from Francois Nicolle in recent years and while neither won for him during their first seasons, both acquitted themselves well in the Fred Winter with Campeador falling when holding a strong chance at the last in 2016 and Coko Beach finishing runner up three years later. Maxios, another addition to the UK/IRE NH stallion ranks for 2020, as well as being another son of Monsun, has so far shown himself a fine sire of juvenile hurdlers. More than half of his offspring have won over obstacles with almost two thirds achieving RPRs exceeding 107 as well as having 71% improve for switching from the flat. Lomitas is also a very capable damsire of juveniles and both he and Maxios have enjoyed success with family 16-c. Incidentally, he and Paros are fairly closely related on the dam's side with Quilixios's fifth dam being the fourth dam of Paros.

Update
The way he won his sole outing in the Prix d'Essai des Poulains was very taking and his jumping was good throughout. Insofar as the form of that race since I made that post is concerned, the fourth placed I'm Walking came out best at the weights in a Prix Royal Junior which featured five previous winners, and fifth placed Losange Vert won a steeplechase for three-year-olds at Auteuil. Yesterday, I'm Walking made a winning start to his chase career in the listed Prix Noiro beating Losange Vert by six lengths with Baladin de Mesc a further twelve lengths back. The tailed off Chudamani has also won a little race of his own at Jarnac. The winning time of Quilixios' division was two seconds quicker than the one earlier on the card and the runner-up in that race, Raffles Face, was a respectable third in the Prix Robert Lejeune.

As pertains to tomorrow's race
Gordon Elliott has won this contest three times since 2011 including with Smiling Eliza in 2018 when it was a winners-of-two. He also ran Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam in 2013 and introduced the Grade 2 winner His Excellency in the 2011 renewal. Quilixios was initially declared to make his Irish debut at Gowran Park but was withdrawn on account of the ground. The yielding surface at Punchestown will likely suit him given that he has already won on heavy and the progeny of his sire Maxios do perform better with some give underfoot. Stablemate Duffle Coat aside, this contest does look stronger than the one from which he was withdrawn as a couple of the newcomers have fair flat form on soft ground and those with hurdling experience are not moderate. Nevertheless, he comes into the race with a strong reputation and the overall impression of French form received a huge boost when Hell Red won on Chepstow.

Battle Of Benburb bg Gavin Cromwell f3-0-0 (76) 75
War Command (Aqlaam){7}(1.33) .5 Masters Apprentice 1st Handicap Hurdle (119), Sedgefield 2019
Battle Of Benburb did not make his racecourse debut until the beginning of September but has ran with credit on all three outings. His first appearance came at Navan over a mile when he was a one paced fourth to the 76 rated Robin Des Sheikh. Over a furlong longer next time at Tipperary, he could only finish eleventh but was not beaten far in a similar contest. His latest appearance came last week at Killarney over a mile and three on soft ground. Once again he was decidedly one paced but he plugged on well to snatch third from a 70 rated filly who was receiving five pounds. War Command has yet to sire a winning juvenile from his first two crops although he was represented last season by Fred Winter seventh Theatre Of War (trained by Gavin Cromwell), and his two offspring this season have each been placed. Aqlaam has not had many runners in the sphere as a damsire but his record as a sire is above average. Battle Of Benburb is a half-brother to a winning handicapper and his granddam is a half-sister to winning jumpers Acapulco Gold and Without A Doubt. Gavin Cromwell won this race with Espoir d'Allen three years ago as well as saddling Wolf Prince to finish third in last year's renewal. His record in the sphere is very healthy and his improvement rate of 78.26% is the best of any trainer with fifteen or more qualifiers.

Corn On The Cob Horse grg M C Grassick f14-0-3 (60) 66 j2-0-0 (-) 52 56
Camacho (Verglas){8-h}(1.12) 2/1 Whiskey Sour 3rd/4th County Hurdle, Cheltenham 2018/19
Corn On The Cob Horse had been valiant in defeat on his first three flat outings of the season but did not enjoy being taken on for the lead on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe back in August. Seven days later, he got stuck in the mud at Tipperary and has since finished stone last in two starts on the flat. There are positives on breeding as his sire has had useful juveniles (Mr Adjudicator, El Beau and Cafe Con Leche), while the dam is a half-sister to the very talented Whiskey Sour. However, Corn On The Cob Horse appears to have gone sour himself as he has shown none of his verve recently and reportedly hung on his penultimate start. With a couple of potential front-runners in this field, he may not enjoy the run of the race here and while he is capable of better, tomorrow's conditions do not look favourable.

Complete Fantasy bg Peter Fahey f5-0-0 (57) 70
Make Believe (Night Shift){42}(1.67) 0.5 Monkeylou 3rd 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
While he earned an RPR of 70 on his racecourse debut at Naas last April, Complete Fantasy has not been anywhere near that mark in four subsequent outings. His best effort this season saw him beaten ten lengths in a Roscommon handicap in late June and he was last seen tailed off at Fairyhouse a fortnight later. He is a half-brother to a horse who placed third in a weak juvenile at Ballinrobe and his dam is a half-sister to a winning seller. Much further back on the damline is 2005 Grand Prix de Automne third Sunspot and Night Shift has been a winning damsire in the division. Nevertheless, these factors are not enough to overcome his patchy flat efforts and Peter Fahey has yet to saddle a winning juvenile from six starts.

Lucky Fella bg Gordon Elliott j1-0-0 (-) 93 95
Yorgunnabelucky (Hernando){6-e}(0.80) 0.5 Must See The Doc 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2019
Gordon Elliott won the first juvenile of Punchestown's season with the unraced Duffle Coat and Lucky Fella was well backed to repeat the dose a fortnight ago. However, he was rather slow at several of his jumps and could not match the principles for speed at the business end as he finished a twenty-one length fifth behind Scholastic. It was not a bad debut outing and he can improve plenty for the experience. Particularly as he is related to several winners in the sphere including Must See The Doc, Jamal Malik (3/3) and Cotee Sud (3/4). However, he probably lacks the class of his more esteemed stablemates and while he is six pounds better off and may prefer the softer ground here, there is still a big gap remaining between himself and Scholastic.

Poets Touch bg P M Cloke f1-0-0 (-) 59 j3-0-0 (-) 95 109
Poet's Voice (Candy Ride){12-b}(3.00) no jumps relatives
Poets Touch began his career with Andrew Slattery and though he was withdrawn from the Goffs UK September sale, he has since joined a new yard. He jumped well from a prominent position on his hurdles debut in very testing conditions at Tipperary but would eventually finish very tired. There was more promise next time at Down Royal where he pulled himself into a clear lead before getting joined by the winner approaching the turn for home. While he did not look like repelling his new companion, he was not in any discernible trouble before he was carried out by a loose Scholastic three from home. His jumping was largely fine when he was last seen at this venue a month ago but he ended up a twenty-six length sixth with no apparent excuses. He is a capable animal but is probably a notch below the best of these.

Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-0 (70) 66 j4-1-2 (-) 111 109
Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
While the season is still young, it has already been a storied one for Scholastic. Following a flat career which saw her visit the winners enclosure on four occasions, her exploits as a loose horse at Down Royal were very dramatic as she managed to eliminate three horses at two separate flights. She also clouted the first before finishing third at this venue last month but has since improved to the point where she was immaculate when winning here a fortnight ago. Though it was a visually impressive performance, her rivals rather jumped themselves out of the contest and she did not have to improve on her Listowel second to win as she did. Nevertheless, it is still the best piece of Irish form in this field and while she may prefer quicker ground, there is plenty to like about her recent attitude. Joseph O'Brien had the first two in this race last season with A Wave Over The Sea and Cerberus, while also saddling another Zoffany in Zig Zag to finish second in 2016.

Capel At Dawn chf David Harry Kelly f11-2-2 (75) 76
Dawn Approach (Street Cry){32}(1.00) 2/1 Short Takes 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2011
Formerly with Joseph Patrick O'Brien, and entered for a couple of hurdles while still under his care, Capel At Dawn had her last run for that yard when winning a claimer at Gowran Park early last month. Held over a mile on soft to heavy ground, Capel At Dawn made a sustained challenge in the straight and was able to get her head in front close to the line. It was not a brilliant race but the front three were clear and the runner-up (conceding ten pounds), has since finished second in a Navan handicap off 77. This was her second victory on the flat, the first coming when beating Corn On The Cob Horse in a Naas handicap on good to yielding off 65, While she was not specifically claimed out of her latest race, she has joined a new trainer in the interim. David Harry Kelly has saddled just the one winning juvenile from nine runners but his charges do have an improvement rate of 80%. While the dam is a half-sister to winning juvenile Short Takes, there are some concerns on the sirelines as Dawn Approach is without a winner in the sphere from thirteen runs and Street Cry has just a 3.85% strike rate as a damsire - 4.65% as a sire. Capel At Dawn's hopes are not forlorn but her pedigree is patchy and the fact that she was allowed to leave the O'Brien yard is indicative of a class deficit.

Strong prospects
1. Quilixios
Reasonable prospects
2. Scholastic
3. Battle Of Benburb
Feasible prospects
4. Lucky Fella
5. Capel At Dawn
Moderate prospects
6. Poets Touch
7. Corn On The Cob Horse
Negligible prospects
8. Complete Fantasy
 
Baladin de Mesc was beaten eighteen lengths in the listed chase yesterday but apart from missing La Plage and being slow over the last, jumped well for the most part. https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2020-10-11/R1/C1

Midnights Legacy has been declared for Wetherby on Wednesday, the preview should be done for around midday tomorrow. Nicky Henderson's Overpriced Mixer (40/1) and Paul Nicholls' Viroflay hold entries at Kempton this Sunday.

Since some Triumph candidates are beginning to appear in what are still the opening salvos of this campaign, here is some information on when and how the Festival horses begin to appear. The first of these images has already been posted in this thread, the second shows the source of the Fred Winter and Triumph runners since 2010.

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Wetherby's juvenile contest consists primarily of hurdling newcomers with only one of the declared eleven being jumps form of any description. Nevertheless, two of those making their jumps bow are rated 89 on the flat which is the highest seen in the sphere this season and a couple of others have interesting pedigrees. As such, this race has the potential to provide a few useful recruits to the division. Historically, the winners of this race have been little better than fair with Fred Winter fourth King d'Argent being the most notable winner in recent years. The average winning DI of 1.00 median, 1.22 mean are lower than those of the average runner of 1.33 and 1.55 which suggests the track provides a solid stamina test. The completion rate of 94.7% is also one of the lowest in the country so good jumping would be most beneficial. The going is currently good to soft with light but fairly persistent showers forecast in the meantime.

Historic Heart chg Nigel Hawke f4-0-1 (75) 70 j3-1-1 (112) 100 107
Fracas (Giant's Causeway){14-c}(1.00) 3/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle Leopardstown 1992
The only runner in the field with hurdling experience, Historic Heart has had three starts in the sphere with his penultimate outing a winning one at Sedgefield. The runner-up in that event followed up at Fontwell although no other runner from that race has since been able to maintain their form. Historic Heart was last seen a month ago where he was a creditable fourth in a Fontwell handicap off 110. He has since been raised two pounds which looks fairly harsh and though he is perfectly fine jumper for his level and has valuable experience to his name, he may struggle under a penalty against a couple of these.

Camahawk brg Tim Easterby f6-0-1 (69) 75
Camelot (Machiavellian){25}(1.00) 0.5 Hawk High 1st Fred Winter HcH (G3,130) Cheltenham 2014
Tim Easterby won this race in 2015 with Our Thomas and is set to saddle two here. The most interesting of his charges is Camahawk, a half-brother to the stable's Fred Winter winner Hawk Wing along with three other jumps winners. Sire Camelot has made a fine start with his first two crops in the division with a 28.57% winners to runners rate that includes Sir Erec and Gardens Of Babylon. Tim Easterby's record in the division is slightly below average but he still has eleven winning juveniles since 2008/09 and his clear round rate of 97.37% is one of the best in this field. Recently rated 73 on the flat, Camahawk's best performance this season came when a three and a half-length fourth in a ten-furlong Redcar handicap on goof to firm in late June. However, his head carriage is not the most convincing and while he was not disgraced next time at Thirsk, he did fail to justify second favouritism and he was well beaten on his latest outing at Haydock in mid-August. His form and overall profile entitles him to plenty of respect but there are a couple of others with more substantial claims here.

Clay Regazzoni bg Keith Dalgleish f19-1-6 (70) 79
Due Diligence (Kheleyf){6-b}(3.00) 2/1 Age Of Glory 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Killarney 2013
With nineteen runs already under his belt, Clay Regazzoni is by far the most experienced horse in the field. He was well beaten in Pinatubo's Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot but was eventually able to get off the mark at the eleventh time of asking when taking a Wolverhampton nursery off 76 last October. He has raced seven times this year at distances from seven furlongs to a mile and a half and though he has largely been consistent, his best placing was a third in a soft ground Ayr handicap off 77. He was last seen sixteen days ago finishing fifth in a mile and a half Hamilton handicap. While he was still in contention at the distance, he did begin to tire in the closing stages. He will be the first hurdles runner for sire Due Diligence who is from the War Front line which has yet to have a winner in the division. Nevertheless, Kheleyf is a winning damsire in the sphere and Clay Regazzoni's damline includes Bertie Moon (2/1), a winner for the yard, with Deenos Beeno and French Holly a little further back at 4/2. Furthermore, Keith Dalgleish has a solid record with juvenile hurdlers and five of his six winners in the division did so first time out with the other finishing second.

Fast Deal chg Tim Easterby f10-0-2 (57) 71
Fast Company (Doyen){4-d}(1.15) 4/2 Go Tech 2nd Novice Hurdle, Wetherby 2007
The second of the Tim Easterby pair, Fast Deal was rated as high as 72 as a two-year-old but he has not matched that form in five outings this year. His near seven length fifth at Haydock on his penultimate outing was the last time he finished within ten lengths of the winner this season and he was last seen a month ago beating only two home in a Musselburgh handicap off 60. There are no notable jumpers nearby on the damline although his sire Fast Company is does have a respectable record in the division with a 35% winners to runners rate and a 64.71% improvement rate. Nevertheless, Fast Deal would have to overcome some patchy form and he appears to be the stable's second string on jockey bookings.

First Impression bg John Quinn f8-3-2 (89) 94
Make Believe (Nureyev){16-a}(1.67) 3/3 Kazlian 4th Fred Winter (130), Cheltenham 2012
First Impression is the joint highest flat horse in the lineup and unlike Midnights Legacy, comes here on the back of a win which came in a ten furlong Ayr handicap last month. That was his third win from eight career starts, the first coming ahead of Clay Regazzoni last autumn and his second coming on his seasonal reappearance in a Redcar handicap in mid-June. Winners have come out from all of his successful outings and the form of his latest outing has been franked with the third and fourth scoring since. His only two disappointing efforts came in a pair of handicaps in July but he looked entirely straightforward in his latest victory. Make Believe is having his first crop of juvenile hurdlers but his own sire Makfi was not prolific in the sphere and similar sentiments apply to damsire Nureyev. First Impression is fairly closely related to Fred Winter fourth Kazlian but that is the sum of notable jumpers nearby on the damline. Trainer John Quinn has a fantastic record with juvenile hurdlers and his improvement rate of 63.89%, and overall strike rate of 24.86% since 2008/09 are the best in this field. He won this race in 2008 with Graze On And On but has since had a couple of beaten favourites in the contest and while First Impression has leading claims, there are slight reservations concerning his pedigree.

Lustleigh bc Dan Skelton Unraced
Kayf Tara (Midnight Legend){11-d}(0.89) 1/0 My Petra 1st 1965 Chase (G2,136), Ascot 2008
Dan Skelton has sent out seventeen juvenile hurdlers making their racecourse debuts and only one of them, the useful Langer Dan, won at any point during their first seasons. Not many will have been as nicely bred as Lustleigh however who is a son of the very useful My Petra, herself a full sister to the equally talented duo of Midnight Appeal and Lake Legend. A full-brother to winning novice My Dance and half-brother to winning stayer Cushuish, Lustleigh is by the top jumps stallion Kayf Tara. However, while famed for his exploits with the likes of Thistlecrack, Carruthers and Special Tiara, Kayf Tara has had only two winning juveniles. Katies Tutor being the latest in November 2006 and was the only one to do so at the age of three. Unraced horses aside, Dan Skelton's record in the division is very good and his record at Wetherby is even better with his eleven runners producing six wins, two seconds and three thirds. While Lustleigh is more a store horse than a juvvenile, it will be interesting to see how he fares here having been withdrawn from Chepstow's recent race on account of the ground.

Mesmeric bg John Wainwright f4-1-1 (65) 68
Casamento (Authorized){1-l}(1.18) 2/1 Mambo Dancer 6th Maiden Hurdle, Killarney 2019
After a win (in the stewards' room) and a second in a pair of Southwell contests early in the year for Mark Johnston, Mesmeric was sold for just 3,000gns at the Tattersalls July sale. He was sent off 50/1 on his return in a Newcastle handicap last month, finishing a tailed-off last, and was last seen refusing to enter the stalls at Redcar ahead of a seller. Authorized is one of the best sires of juveniles and has made a good impression as a damsire with four of nine juveniles from his broodmare winning races. Casamento also has a solid record as a sire but there is little encouragement to be drawn from the damline. John Wainwright is without a winner in the sphere and has gone over a thousand days since a jumps winner of any description.

Midnights Legacy bc A King f6-3-0 (89) 94
Midnight Legend (Generous){8-i}(0.47) 2/2 Katchit 1st Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham 2008
Hurdling was the plan for Midnights Legacy before he even set foot on a racecourse with connections hoping that he might one day emulate his sire by achieving success as an entire over hurdles before replacing him as a stallion. His pedigree screams juvenile hurdler as it was in this sphere that his full sister Midnight's Gift, and half-sisters Giving Glances and Forgiving Glance, both picked up black type. Another full sister Giving Back and half-sister Giveaway Glance were also winners as juveniles. Furthermore, Midnights Legacy's dam Giving is a half-sister to Miracle - the dam of Katchit who won seven times as a juvenile, including the Triumph and Anniversary Hurdles, before winning the Champion Hurdle the following season. Even the best laid plans in the breeding sheds rarely play out in reality, and ones as rare and specific as those for Midnights Legacy would seemingly require some metaphysical intervention. Nevertheless, after a fairly uninspiring debut at 33/1 in a Bath novice last September, this scion went on to win his next three starts over ten and twelve furlongs on ground from soft to good while showing a willing attitude. The hype train was rather derailed in the Melrose Handicap in late August but while he was beaten seventh of eight at Haydock last time, it was a more respectable showing. Alan King is the winningmost trainer in the UK or Ireland in this division and is first or second across all metrics in this field.

New Zealander bg Graeme McPherson f1-0-0 (-) 33
Australia (Marju){13-c}(0.54) 2/1 Dalaram 1st Free Handicap Hurdle (131), Chepstow 2004
New Zealander was well beaten at Kempton on his sole flat start for Charles Hills and was sold for 4,000gns at the Tattersalls July sale. There is encouragement on breeding as Australia had three winners from his first crop of juveniles and New Zealander's dam is a half-sister to Free Handicap winner Dalaram. Daraydan (3/1), Darialann (3/1) and Der Spieler (3/2) are other useful types on the damline. However, the new trainer has had just one winner in forty-two juvenile hurdles and this is a very warm contest.

Lightning Blue bf Tom Gretton f9-0-0 (46) 47
Harbour Watch (Fantastic Light){16}(2.50) 2/1 Blue Leader 1st Selling Hurdle, Hereford 2005
Lightning Blue finished no better than sixth in eight flat starts for Mick Channon and was beaten nearly nine lengths on her stable debut in a Lingfield handicap off just 47. Harbour Watch has a respectable record of four winners from thirteen juvenile hurdlers and the dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler. However, Tom Gretton is without a winner from thirty-six attempts in the sphere.

Silver Desert grf Micky Hammond f5-0-0 (46) 51
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){4-n}(0.66) 2/1 Descaro 1st Selling Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2013
Silver Desert has shown nothing more than a modicum of flat ability for either David Lanigan or Michael Appleby in five outings. Micky Hammond does have an above average record in this sphere however and won this race in 2016 with 20/1 shot Canford Thompson. Furthermore, Mastercraftsman is the joint leading sire in the division and Galileo has a solid record as a damsire. Nevertheless, Silver Desert is still several stones behind the leading contenders here.

Strong prospects
1. Midnights Legacy
2. First Impression
Reasonable prospects
3. Historic Heart
4. Lustleigh
Feasible prospects
5. Camahawk
6. Clay Regazzoni
Moderate prospects
7. Fast Deal
8. Silver Desert
Negligible prospects
9. Mesmeric
10. New Zealander
11. Lightning Blue
 
Preview review
The entire field finished precisely as they were listed on the prospects list.

Race review
The race revolved around the well touted Quilixios and he ran out a commanding winner. Taking the winner out of the race, it would have been a reasonable contest without being up to the standard of a typical winners of two. After a slow start, they ended up going a decent gallop and the winning time was almost equal to that set by A Wave Of The Sea when he won the contest last season. The jumping on show was not brilliant but the field finished as anticipated so the form ought to be reliable.

Quilixios came into the race near the top of the Triumph markets and came out of it the clear favourite. A big horse who is impressive on the eye, he did not look the finished article which was emphasised by his greenness. He got in very close to the first and after wandering at the paddock turn, was big and slow over the second. However, his jumping improved dramatically as the pace increased. While he wandered again when left in the lead approaching two out, he was still good over it and his stuttering slightly on landing at the last does not raise any concerns. Quilixios did not win on the bridle as he was shaken up three furlongs out and kept up to his work on the run-in, but he never really left second gear and this will have shaken off the cobwebs. Given his breeding, extensive scope and the fact that he was not fancied prior to his debut in France, there is a suspicion that he could be better next season. Nevertheless, he is clearly a serious horse with a good engine and would still be entitled to take a place within the upper echelons of the division. 128

Scholastic had improved on each of her four outings to date over hurdles and was immaculate with her jumping when winning here on her latest start. However, while her jumping was still decent in the main, there were still a few errors, particularly at the second, which were absent on her last two outings. While she likely ran close to her best again here, she is largely exposed as being little better than average. Nevertheless, this was still a solid effort and she might be able to collect some black type in a weak enough mares' contest. 108

Battle Of Benburb only made his racecourse debut in early September but had shown enough in three starts to suggest that he could do well over hurdles. Particularly as he represents a yard which does well in the division. However, he made mistakes at most of his hurdles which ranged getting in close to skewing and jumping right. He was also keen early and looked very vulnerable when being pressed for third during the concluding few furlongs. Nevertheless, much to his credit, he was able to maintain his superiority over the fourth and while there is plenty to improve upon, this was not a hurdling debut without promise. 97

Lucky Fella made a respectable debut here a fortnight ago behind Scholastic and essentially matched that effort this afternoon. His jumping lacked fluency at most of his early jumps and he never looked like threatening the leaders but he ran an honest enough race and should be competitive in ordinary company. 97

Capel At Dawn had previously been with Joseph O'Brien but left that yard before jumping a hurdle in public. As such, her hurdles debut was made under the care of David Harry Kelly and while she was well beaten, she put in the cleanest round of jumping before almost unseating at the last. These opponents were too much for her today but there was enough here to command interest in a weaker event. 64

Poets Touch was keen early on and pulled himself to the front after the third. His jumping rather fell apart midway through the race and he was already weakening when slipping badly after the seventh. He was then allowed to come home in his own time. Poets Touch has shown more than this in the past but is looking prone to inconsistency. 42

Corn On The Cob Horse was always in the rear but while he was hesitant and blundered at the first, his jumping improved form there. However, he was already getting reminders after the fifth and finished a tired horse. Corn On The Cob Horse had demonstrated some potential earlier this season on the flat and could end up being fairly well handicapped but he needs to break out of this lull before he would be able to take advantage. 37

Complete Fantasy was unfancied prior to the off and was pulled up after his saddle slipped when tripping over the first. 0

Along with Midnights Legacy tomorrow, other upcoming entries include

Friday - Uttoxeter - Overpriced Mixer
Saturday - Ballinrobe - Zanahiyr and Dark Voyager
Sunday - Kempton - Overpriced Mixer and Viroflay
Sunday - Auteuil - Baladin de Mesc, Heros d'Ainay, Raffles Face, Bannister
 
The review for yesterday's race at Wetherby should hopefully be done by this afternoon. In the meantime, here is the preview for tomorrow's race.

Uttoxeter hosts its second juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow and despite a small field, it features a few interesting runners. Naizagai returns after his impressive win at Cartmel two months ago while Magna Moralia bids to build on his promising debut at Sedgefield. There is also a pair of flat recruits with fair form and agreeable pedigrees. This race has been hosted every season since 2008/09 but is generally not of the highest standard with Herod The Great being the most prestigious name on the roll-call. When that horse is taken out, the average seasonal RPR of the winner is just 103.5 median, 100 mean. Uttoxeter's time per furlong figure is fairly standard and the winning DIs of 1.15 median and 1.51 mean (slightly lower than the average runner) suggest that the course offers a fair test of stamina. The course's clear round rate of 96.99% is also one of the kinder in the country. However, the completion rate of 82.33% is one of the lowest which ties into the notion that Uttoxeter can become exponentially testing in softer conditions. The going is currently soft although there is little rain forecast in the meantime.

Naizagai bg Fergal O'Brien f5-0-4 (76) 78 j1-1-0 (-) 114 120
Dark Angel (Galileo){9-b}(0.90) 3/1 Oxymeron 1st Handicap Hurdle, Lingfield 1990
After leaving Roger Varian's yard for 40,000guineas, Naizagai made an impressive start to his hurdling career at Cartmel in early August. Sent to the front from the outset, he was able to burn off the early challengers for his lead with little fuss. While he was not foot perfect, he was clever enough to mitigate his misjudgements without losing momentum. Behind Hiconic, it was the best performance seen up to that point although the race rather fell perfectly for him and the form does not look the most reliable. The runner-up has gone really sour in two subsequent runs and while the third, fourth and sixth have all done well since, there were reasons for their underperformance at Cartmel. Furthermore, Naizagai did tire in the closing stages and the subsequent wind operation and two month absence raise concerns. Nonetheless, he already has the proven aptitude and although the penalty will make things more difficult, he sets a good standard.

Bentley Wood bg Dai Burchell f6-0-1 (65) 76
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){10}(0.71) 3/2 Argentino 1st Handicap Hurdle (126), Killarney 2015
Bentley Wood showed reasonable form on his first two starts as a two-year-old for Mick Channon, but that form dipped afterwards and has been seen only once since the first of February. His latest outing came in June when beating one home in a Wolverhampton handicap off a mark of 70 and has since moved to Dai Burchell's yard. Ex-inmates of Mick Channon's yard have a solid winners to runners rate of 25.26% in the sphere but that drops to 18.18% when the charges do not move to Sheena West. Dai Burchell's record in the division since 2008/09 is poor as he has has failed to saddle a winner from thirty-seven starts and his clear round rate is a low 86.49%. The sirelines are much more encouraging and the best of his flat form is respectable at this level.

Cabot Cliffs chg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (66) 68
Gleneagles (Halling){9-f}(0.71) 2/1 Rougham 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2010
Dan Skelton and Charles Hills each have good records in this division as both a trainer and a source respectively. The former has a winners to runners rate of 39.06%, the latter is at 43.75%, and both have improvement rates exceeding 50%. Following a four race flat career which ended, for now, with an official mark of 66, Cabot Cliffs was transferred between the aforementioned stables after fetching 18,000guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. His last flat outing was probably his best and it came in a Windsor handicap over an extended mile and three furlongs. He was beaten just under five lengths but other than the fourth winning next time, the form looks average at best. Furthermore, Cabot Cliffs was hanging all over the place in the straight and despite being gelded earlier in the year. This was not the first time he had shown a questionable attitude and he has since had a wind operation. Gleneagles is having his first juvenile crop this year and though neither have achieved much, his horses have shown to act on softer ground. Damsire Halling's record is solid and the dam is a half-sister to winning juvenile Rougham. Cabot Cliffs' profile is decent enough but there are considerable concerns over his mentality at this stage.

Jan Wellens chg Olly Murphy f6-1-0 (63) 67 j1-0-0 (-) 83 83
Dutch Art (Pivotal){6-e}(1.80) 4/2 Elusive Dream 1st Mersey Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2008
Prior to Dutch Admiral winning at Huntingdon, Dutch Art's record in the division had been woeful. It is still not good and despite winning on the flat for Ger Lyons, Jan Wellens did nothing to enhance the reputation of his sire on his hurdling debut at Perth. Despite having the assistance of Richard Johnson, he looking anything but a natural jumper in what was a moderate race. Trainer Olly Murphy has a fair record in the division but is currently on an eighteen race losing streak. Jan Wellens can improve for the experience and could benefit from the more testing conditions but he has plenty to prove at this juncture.

Magna Moralia grg John Quinn f10-2-3 (74) 81 j1-0-1 (-) 105 108
Gregorian (Singspiel){1-h}(0.87) 0.5 Speed Company 1st Handicap Hurdle (119), Chepstow 2019
John Quinn's record with juvenile hurdlers is the strongest of all trainers represented in this race and he introduced another nice prospect at Wetherby in First Impression. Magna Moralia brings the strongest flat form into this race and made a compelling, if somewhat dubious, impression on his jumps debut at Sedgefield seventeen days ago. His hurdling was not particularly fluent but he was swinging away on the bridle approaching the last. However, he jumped it awkwardly and lost his stride on landing which cost him valuable momentum and though he was able to rally, he was always held in any case. Magna Moralia has winning form on soft ground, is capable of ample improvement and receives a useful seven pounds from Naizagai. However, unless the race is handed to him, he might need a crafty ride in order to get his head in front.

You Owe Me chg Sarah-Jayne Davies f6-0-1 (60) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 68 68
Champs Elysees (Giant's Causeway){10-a}(1.50) no jumps relatives
Third in a Kempton maiden last year for Mark Johnson, You Owe Me had become disappointing in three starts during the summer and was sold for £19,000 at the Goffs UK summer Sale. He made his hurdling debut at the end of last month for his new yard but jumped poorly throughout and finished a tailed off last.

Strong prospects
1. Naizagai
Reasonable prospects
2. Magna Moralia
Feasible prospects
3. Cabot Cliffs
4. Bentley Wood
Moderate prospects
5. Jan Wellens
Negligible prospects
6. You Owe Me
 
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