Kauto Star & Denman

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If Paul Nicholls didn't train both of the top two how likely is it they would have clashed by now?

No harm having this thread as a build up to the clash....otherwise there will be postings on 5-6 threads regarding their achievements and warm ups at Newbury and Ascot.
 
I think they are doing the correct with Denman, the problem will be if they do it in March with the bonus in mind.
 
They have hardly done anything wrong with Denman, the Hennessy is hardly a "weak option" but with another trainer it must have been very likely to see Denman running at Haydock..a track that would have suited him.
 
Presumably you can lay him for a place on Betfair? - if you wish to be so bold :P

In discussion of Denman/KS, and incidentally of MWDS on another thread, the chat goes on as if these horses belong to the trianer. They don't. The first two are different ownership, both owners having more than one in training in the yard; and in the case of MWDS of four guys own him who may have their own ideas about where they wants this horse to run.

Obviously all these guys will take advice; but talk of the trainer dictating at this level where people run their horses so that one guy can win a million is far off the mark.

On the other hand Smith and the Findlays will have agreed with Nicholls to keep the horses apart for as long as possible, not just to maximise their potential prizewinnings, but also to avoid them 'bottoming' one another which will happen when they do meet imo. I think it will be a right old scrap, esp as they are neighbours and eyeball each other every day :rolleyes:
 
The Lexus run wasn't impressive, but only because Ruby didn't want it to be. He is a horse who needs to stretch the field from 2 miles out to be seen at his best, rather than 2 furlongs out.

He had a tough race in the Hennessy, followed by a "coughing incident". I'd say Ruby wanted to win giving the horse as easy a race as possible which he managed handily enough.

My arse is firmly on the fence when it comes to what will win the Gold Cup. I would much prefer to see pure stamina laden galloping ability overcome class and this will probably cloud my judgement if I'm still sitting on the fence when preparations are complete.
 
Originally posted by firstpastthepost@Dec 30 2007, 02:29 AM
didn't think the Lexus run was that great,the press have hyped that performance up to much.
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In fairness, they probably have but a horse that is essentially a thorough stayer is never going to be seen to best advantage in a muddling affair.

Kauto Star probably would have had the speed to dance clear off that slow pace and would, imo, have looked more visually impressive (had he run in that race) but, for me, Denman was always in control but just didn't have the raw speed to put any real distance between himself and the others.

I don't have any strong views about which of Kauto and Denman is the better horse but The Cheltenham Gold Cup is likely to be a much more strongly run affair and, imo, that will suit Denman better. I love Kauto, but reckon he could be out-slogged.

nb - Before anyone reminds me that Kauto has already won a Gold Cup, I should point-out that te 2007 renewal was very unusual in that it was slowly run. IMO, this played very much into Kauto's hands.
 
nb - Before anyone reminds me that Kauto has already won a Gold Cup, I should point-out that te 2007 renewal was very unusual in that it was slowly run. IMO, this played very much into Kauto's hands.
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The proximity of the rest to KS that day suggests he was not suited to it.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Dec 30 2007, 02:45 PM
The proximity of the rest to KS that day suggests he was not suited to it.
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I don't really know what you mean by that. Surely it's logical that a field finishes closer together if a race is slowly run.

Suffice it to say that if I owned a horse that had won a Grade 1 over 2 miles that was running in a 3m2f race, I wouldn't be that bothered it they dawdled for the first mile and a half.
 
Agree with relkeel - KS was definitely suited by the way the Gold Cup was run last year. Of course he is a much better horse than the result suggests (with things like Turpin Green beaten 5l), but the field going slow early played right into his hands in terms of winning the race, if not running to a high mark.

This year could be different. I would expect to see Sam Thomas pour on the pressure on Denman from the start and I don't think we will see Kauto make his usual race winning move at around 2.5 miles. In fact I don't think he will get to Denman at all and will be outjumped and outstayed, whatever the ground.
 
The slow pace of the Gold Cup only suited Kauto if you consider him to have any stamina doubts.

I'm not sure what more he could have done at this stage to dispel such doubts.
 
GF - the horse couldn't have done any more as he can only run in and win the races he has done, but the fact remains his stamina is unproven over the Gold Cup trip in a strongly run race.

That would definitely be a concern for me, given that a) he is so effective over much shorter and b) when he has had quite a test (e.g Haydock) he has hardly been galloping away from them at the death.

Although he hacked up in the KG, he still wasnt really doing his best work at the finish - he put the field to bed but then didnt really extend his advantage.
 
Kauto Star runs this year more like a stayer than last season, but cheltneham is not ideal for him and has not tested the gold cup distance against a real top class stayer like denman is , just remember how One Man run in the King George and what happened to him in true run race at Cheltenham in the Gold Cups.


What is sure is that Ruby rides Kauto because of the bonus but at the moment I can not split them for the Gold Cup.
 
but the fact remains his stamina is unproven over the Gold Cup trip in a strongly run race.
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Same applies to Denman yes he looks like he will get it fine but in my opinion (and that of the trainer and jockey) the trip should be fine for Kauto Star too.

when he has had quite a test (e.g Haydock) he has hardly been galloping away from them at the death.
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Was this when he won there first time doing hand stands or when he stayed on ahead of Exotic Dancer when looking like he might get caught close home.

There are only two way Denman will beat a peak form Kauto Star....a) if KS falls b) if Denman is simply a better horse. It wont be for lack of stamina.
 
Obviously im referring to the second time he ran at Haydock - on soft ground (as opposed to GS) in a stronger run race than the previous year.

The trip is definitely relevant - you say Denman will only beat a standing up KS "if he is the better horse". I strongly fancy Denman to beat him in the Gold Cup, but wouldn't fancy the same horse were they to meet in the King George or in the Tingle Creek. It is all about which horse is better under the conditions on the day.
 
Denman is going to have to do alot of donkey work in the Gold Cup. If the only way he can beat KS is to serve it up 2 miles out it is going to have to be judged to perfection otherwise he'll fall in a hole.

I'd be amazed if KS failed for stamina but if he did the nature of the race Denman will have to make will suit Exotic Dancer perfectly. Not as "sexy" a horse as Denman but one who has proved to have the form in the book rather than one that has so much hype about some average form. His Hennessy win has fallen apart.
 
I refer back to Nicholls' remarks after KS got beat - that he'd mistakenly been training him with the two milers and the horse was doing much better since he'd been training him as / with the stayers. I'm sure he'll get the trip too. I think these two with their reliable jumping are going to put the rest of the field under a lot of pressure.

The big question for me for Denman fans is, will Sam be able to judge the pace correctly if he does make it?
Will Nicholls run another one as a pacemaker?
 
Let's get things into perspective - the only horse Kauto wasn't running away from at Haydock is the only other horse in training with a higher official rating than Denman.
 
By the very way ratings are calculated, it is nigh on impossible that Denman could be rated higher than KS at this stage. He is an unbeaten, second season chaser, who can (and imo will) only scale the heights in terms of ratings when he meets the likes of Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.

The Hennessy wasnt a strong renewal, but he still hacked up off 161 and then followed up with a never-in-doubt win in open G1 company in a race that probably wasnt run to suit. To call that "average" form is just laughable - it isn't as good as Kauto Star's best form, but he it isn't all that far off (the BHB handicapper only has him 4lbs behind) and he won in the style of a horse who can go on to better things.
 
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