Kauto Star & Denman

I would add that the BHB handicapper is probably being quite kind to Denman in terms of actual ratable form at this stage. Kauto Star probably deserves to be about 7lb clear of him imo. There is plenty of room for improvement for Denman though....
 
To call that "average" form is just laughable
Click to expand...

Average being in the context of the over all debate. I find it hard to believe he his form with 4lbs within Kauto Star at this stage. Just crazy.
 
Originally posted by firstpastthepost@Dec 30 2007, 04:02 PM
sam Thomas didnt do a bad job of judging how to set the pace in the Hennessey,kauto will out pace him after the last
Click to expand...
Different altogether case! That was a big field of handicappers in which he was indisputably on the best horse, this might be a very small field in *the* Championship Staying Chase
 
The two Irish horses In Compliance and Mossbank seem to be going the Ryanair route anyway. If Kicking King does not return its possible there might be no Irish runners in the Gold Cup.
 
Will it be Sam pressing the button though? Got an intriguing call from a Mr Findlay earlier. He's not really one for small talk when he's in punting mode and I don't tend to talk horses with him unless he wants to go there but he made a point of asking me if I would put A P McCoy up if I owned Denman. I don't think Harry was making idle chat as it's not his style (hyperbole, yes, but not idle chat) and it would be intriguing if a jockey change was under consideration. I can't see it getting the green light from P F Nicholls in a hurry but McCoy isn't strictly claimed to ride Exotic Dancer so could make the switch.
 
One things to be sure if that happened - Merrigan's recent toys out of pram [and baby out with bathwater] might look insignificant beside young Sam's likely reaction :P

I don't think AP's life would be any easier either if deserted ED - and I don't believe he would
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy@Dec 30 2007, 03:26 PM
Will it be Sam pressing the button though? Got an intriguing call from a Mr Findlay earlier. He's not really one for small talk when he's in punting mode and I don't tend to talk horses with him unless he wants to go there but he made a point of asking me if I would put A P McCoy up if I owned Denman. I don't think Harry was making idle chat as it's not his style (hyperbole, yes, but not idle chat) and it would be intriguing if a jockey change was under consideration. I can't see it getting the green light from P F Nicholls in a hurry but McCoy isn't strictly claimed to ride Exotic Dancer so could make the switch.
Click to expand...
Very interesting indeed. I'm not always AP's biggest fan, particularly on inexperienced chasers, but I think he could be just the ticket for an attacking ride on an accomplished jumper like Denman. The main positive would be that it would mean literally EVERYTHING to AP to win this race.


BTW Rory - is Findlay on Facebook? Get him in my group - I'm guessing from the 50k queuing up on Betfair's Ante Post market that he fancies this beast for the Gold Cup? :laughing:
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Dec 30 2007, 05:05 PM
To call that "average" form is just laughable
Click to expand...

Average being in the context of the over all debate. I find it hard to believe he his form with 4lbs within Kauto Star at this stage. Just crazy.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone appeared to claim that Denman's form can be said to be within 4lbs of that of Kauto Star in the first place - and it doesn't have to be in order to believe that he can win a specific race.

However, Denman's form so far, although not in the same league as KS's best form yet - that's not to say that he can't achieve or surpass it at some point in the future - really can't be described as average, not even in the context of this debate.

Apart from anything else, Denman has yet to meet the horses of the calibre that Kauto Star has been beating - that isn't to say that he cannot beat them. He is certainly going the right way and you really couldn't expect a lot more than that which he has served up already.
 
Ok Bar, you got me there - I thought Gal was talking about people on here.

FWIW I don't give a monkeys what the horse is rated, don't know, don't feel the need to follow numbers to work out whether a horse is decent or not.
 
..and before you lot lamp into me, I genuinely couldn't tell you what either horse is rated without looking it up, nor do I feel the need or desire to find out. Nor do I care what anyone thinks of that!
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Dec 30 2007, 04:22 PM
The two Irish horses In Compliance and Mossbank seem to be going the Ryanair route anyway. If Kicking King does not return its possible there might be no Irish runners in the Gold Cup.
Click to expand...
Have to hope KK has some of the spark of old. Taafe when interviewed on Rte over christmas was confident of KK lining up on Gold Cup day
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy@Dec 30 2007, 06:26 PM
Got an intriguing call from a Mr Findlay earlier.
Click to expand...

Is this a late bid for the Talkinghorses Forum Name-dropper of the Year Award 2007?

Tone it down a bit Rory, I'm on Headstrong at 1.01!

Basically, I am in complete agreement with tdk on this one so I don't feel the need to repeat his posts in full.

However, I am genuinely amazed to read the word "average" applied to Denman. His Hennessy win was simply superb and has not "fallen apart" just because Dream Alliance ran a stinker in The Welsh National. What about Madison Du Berlais? That's before we even mention The Lexus.

Just to re-iterate, I am not knocking Kauto Star in any way or saying he won't stay in The Gold Cup. It is merely my opinion that, if the race becomes a slug-fest (which is quite likely), that will suit Denman better.
 
Why is a slug fest likely? Good ground, more than likely a smaller field than we have had the past two years. No Irish runners perhaps. I think it could be a three horse race from the top of the hill, and possibly before.
 
Beef or Salmon led til halfway last year. Think the same assumption re the champion hurdle for years as well. And the Hennessey also.
 
I tend to agree fwiw.

Denman has the capacity to take Kauto into territory he's never been before. He might very well be able to respond, but it remains an unknown factor. If he can turn it into a long distance trial of accurate jumping at speed by cranking it up from some way out, and then hammering through the sections? then we'll see. If there's any chincks in Kauto it's likely to come from getting his jumping under pressure, and then out staying on hill for the extras 2.5 furlongs.

Last years was a slow pace, Denman's going to have to stretch them and see where that takes things. If waits 'til the end kauto will power past him. In other words the jockey's judgement becomes of paramount importance, but I think he's got to be prepared to commit Denman early and give the horse the chance to lose the race on his own terms, rather than sit around compliantly and play into kauto's hands.
 
Would like to see whether Denman is even in Kauto's ballpark.

If you take Kauto Star out of last weeks King George there'd be a lot of people saying it was a good race, Our Vic got what he wanted - 3m on a flat track which is what people have been saying he needs for a while and Exotic Dancer was just nudged out of it in the last few years.

Could it be possible that Kauto is just so much better than the others?
 
"If you take Kauto Star out of last weeks King George there'd be a lot of people saying it was a good race, Our Vic got what he wanted - 3m on a flat track which is what people have been saying he needs for a while and Exotic Dancer was just nudged out of it in the last few years."


Do you think so, Martin?

They experimented with Exotic Dancer and it appeared to fail, so if you ignore him, you have Our Vic (163) beating Racing Demon (166).
 
Would you say it had failed had Kauto not been 13+ lengths clear though Colin?

Nobody would be able to tell - we'd just see Our Vic fulfilling his undoubted potential.
 
Back
Top