Kempton boxing day

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Absurdistan

At the Start
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Oct 7, 2013
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Will Faugheen run in the xmas hurdle?
5/2 seems a grand price if running.
Papers say the new one will dodge Faugheen for Haydock.
Yanworth current fav at 6/4, which I assume is due to assumption Faugheen won't run.
 
When we're talking about top horses, everyone gives the public a serious consideration except Mullins who constantly keeps us uninformed. Coneygree is not working well, we find out with a week to go he's nto going KG. Thistlecrack owner decided to go for the KG, we find out with a week to go. The New One wins the International, trainer changes plans in front of cameras and is targeting the Christmas Hurdle. Yanworth's owner finds another horse for the WH, we find out with 4 months ahead that Yanworth will be going CH and is targeting the Christmas Hurdle. Altior has first start over fences, the target for the rest of the season is known. We know Buveur D'air is running in the JLT after first run. We knew with 6 months ahead that Don will have a run in February if he's going well up until then, followed by the GC. Everyone does his best to inform the public as soon as a decision was taken.

In contrast, look at the shambles Mullins is doing with his top ones. He says NC is going for the staying trips at the end of last season, he runs him in 2 miles Morgiana at the start of this season with talks of continuing the staying route initial plan. He has Douvan AP fav for the CC, he says in the early part of the season that he might target the KG and/or GC. He plays around with Yorkhill, hurdling/chasing 2m/2and half/3. He plays with VVM, hurdling/chasing 2-3. Its almost Christmas and no word of Faugheen except for a small mention by Chapman on his show. He has Djak for the GC but no one will be surprised if he sends him for the Ryanair instead. Said he's going to keep UDS in France this season, he ends up in Tingle C with no re-assurance he'll take part in the CC. Not saying he should make a decision so far out, but the fact that after he takes the decision he delays the announcement until his boys profit from the unsuspecting. Of course no investigations from BHA - and the existing Faugheen case forgotten.
 
It's pretty hard to make a decision, when both Faugheen and Annie haven't seen a racetrack yet this season because of setbacks. They won't be racing until they're right. Of the others he has a battalion of top class prospects, so surely it's better to see how the season works through before deciding where they are targeted at the Festivals. I don't see much wrong with that to be honest.

With regards the other trainers you mention, I'm sure they'd love to be in the position to have the same 'problem'. If they had perhaps they'd be more cautious too.

On the wider point I agree Willie is a ditherer, but only in the respect he wants to get it right. He's not making the decisions in the way he does to deliberately put anyone away. He has no reason too. Essentially he will make a decision based on the horse and owner first, which is quite normal.

The final point I'd make is stop obsessing! :whistle::lol:
 
Aughex said:
In contrast, look at the shambles Mullins is doing with his top ones. He says NC is going for the staying trips at the end of last season, he runs him in 2 miles Morgiana at the start of this season with talks of continuing the staying route initial plan. He has Douvan AP fav for the CC, he says in the early part of the season that he might target the KG and/or GC. He plays around with Yorkhill, hurdling/chasing 2m/2and half/3. He plays with VVM, hurdling/chasing 2-3. Its almost Christmas and no word of Faugheen except for a small mention by Chapman on his show. He has Djak for the GC but no one will be surprised if he sends him for the Ryanair instead. Said he's going to keep UDS in France this season, he ends up in Tingle C with no re-assurance he'll take part in the CC. Not saying he should make a decision so far out, but the fact that after he takes the decision he delays the announcement until his boys profit from the unsuspecting. Of course no investigations from BHA - and the existing Faugheen case forgotten.
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I couldn't really have told you any of that, so little attention do I pay to what Mullins's plans might [not] be.

I only get involved in a/p markets when I don't feel the need to take the opposition too much into account.
 
Looking forward to seeing the 2017 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Jenkins out for a trot in the first race. ;)


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Desert Orchid said:
I couldn't really have told you any of that, so little attention do I pay to what Mullins's plans might [not] be.

I only get involved in a/p markets when I don't feel the need to take the opposition too much into account.
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its not only about A/P markets is it? and I'm not talking only about targets but how most of the trainers that have high interest horses, choose to treat the racing fans. How is it possible that instead of making a public announcement about Faugheen running at Christmas, we find via an out of the blue mention from Chappers show? If anyone views that as fair then you're watching racing in thick fog and you trick yourself into thinking that its no one's fault. Well its the racetrack fault for not doing anything about the transmitted images, so that the commentator can at least tell us the winner. It was a farce what happened couple of days ago in that last race of Haydock card and its a total shambles for a trainer to keep us in the dark until his gang profits financially before he makes a public announcement.

P.S. look here how its done: http://www.roadtocheltenham.com/tent-pitch-christmas-hurdle
 
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Anybody coming to Kempton Boxing Day?. I`ll be there as usual in the normal place. Glad to buy you a festive drink.Got a lovely mare shaping up well over the gallops to look forward to
 
A lot of them went away up the sky Granger but Istabraq is still with us :0)

The problem is we lost 2 season of crop you could say . Peace and Co never trained on, Douvan and Altior both went chasing then Faugheen gets injured and supersub Annie is left to take the spoils by beating MTOY on a comeback mission.

Now people are trying to wind the clock back and are talking The New One while others are trying to make Yanworth into a 2 miler.

I thought it was dreadful last year but this year is twice as bad. Whatever wins the Supreme or maybe even the Triumph this season will win the Champion Hurdle next...you read it here first lol
 
granger said:
xmas hurdle entries reopened

Where have all the good hurdlers gone
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I thought it was a bit strange 3:30 and no declarations. The best information I can find is that there are 5 currently declared runners, but which ones those are remains a mystery.

Do we get to find out what has actually been declared today? Hope so...
 
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The race will be re-opened until tomorrow; the deadline for entries being extended by 24hrs, when less than 10 entries are received

Should know this time tomorrow who the intended (and speculative) runners are.
 
I fancy Ch'tibello, depends what turns up to some extent though.
 
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Aughex said:
its not only about A/P markets is it? and I'm not talking only about targets but how most of the trainers that have high interest horses, choose to treat the racing fans. How is it possible that instead of making a public announcement about Faugheen running at Christmas, we find via an out of the blue mention from Chappers show? If anyone views that as fair then you're watching racing in thick fog and you trick yourself into thinking that its no one's fault. Well its the racetrack fault for not doing anything about the transmitted images, so that the commentator can at least tell us the winner. It was a farce what happened couple of days ago in that last race of Haydock card and its a total shambles for a trainer to keep us in the dark until his gang profits financially before he makes a public announcement.
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It strikes me that it's irrelevant unless you're interested in the ante-post markets.

Arsene Wenger isn't going to tell you who is going to line up now for Arsenal in the Cup Final should they get there.

I'm happy to wait until closer to the day before finding out what's going to run. It doesn't bother me in the least if Mullins chooses not to tell us what is or isn't running.

I think it's great that other trainers are happy to share information but sometimes they change their plans at the last minute, at which point there's no shortage of whingeing about that so they might actually be putting themselves in a no-win situation by releasing information that might change. Nicholls, for example, is getting notorious for changing plans and damaging his reputation as a caring-sharing operator.

Nah, I don't feel I'm watching in the fog. It's no big deal to me. I've no idea what's likely to run in the Gold Cup at this stage and am not bothered about that either, regardless of who trains what. If, though, for example, something comes out and I find myself rating it 180 I wouldn't feel disadvantaged in betting it now at 25/1 for the Gold Cup or Champion Chase just because I don't know what Mullins might run. If it can run to 180 it wouldn't matter to me what took it on come the day. It would have a far better chance than 25/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It strikes me that it's irrelevant unless you're interested in the ante-post markets.

Arsene Wenger isn't going to tell you who is going to line up now for Arsenal in the Cup Final should they get there.

I'm happy to wait until closer to the day before finding out what's going to run. It doesn't bother me in the least if Mullins chooses not to tell us what is or isn't running.

I think it's great that other trainers are happy to share information but sometimes they change their plans at the last minute, at which point there's no shortage of whingeing about that so they might actually be putting themselves in a no-win situation by releasing information that might change. Nicholls, for example, is getting notorious for changing plans and damaging his reputation as a caring-sharing operator.

Nah, I don't feel I'm watching in the fog. It's no big deal to me. I've no idea what's likely to run in the Gold Cup at this stage and am not bothered about that either, regardless of who trains what. If, though, for example, something comes out and I find myself rating it 180 I wouldn't feel disadvantaged in betting it now at 25/1 for the Gold Cup or Champion Chase just because I don't know what Mullins might run. If it can run to 180 it wouldn't matter to me what took it on come the day. It would have a far better chance than 25/1.
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What about race goers?
I've been disappointed many times by draw horses not running in the end.
 
At what point do racegoers decide they're actually going?

To continue the football analogy, if I book a trip abroad to catch Barcelona-Real Madrid, I'm going to be disappointed if Messi and/or Ronaldo end up not playing but it isn't going to spoil the whole thing for me otherwise I wouldn't even bother booking.

Plus, how many times do racegoers know for sure what's running anywhere when they plan their days at the races?

What's worse, knowing there's uncertainty about the final card or being told something will definitely run only for the plan to change overnight?
 
Desert Orchid said:
It strikes me that it's irrelevant unless you're interested in the ante-post markets.

Arsene Wenger isn't going to tell you who is going to line up now for Arsenal in the Cup Final should they get there.

I'm happy to wait until closer to the day before finding out what's going to run. It doesn't bother me in the least if Mullins chooses not to tell us what is or isn't running.

I think it's great that other trainers are happy to share information but sometimes they change their plans at the last minute, at which point there's no shortage of whingeing about that so they might actually be putting themselves in a no-win situation by releasing information that might change. Nicholls, for example, is getting notorious for changing plans and damaging his reputation as a caring-sharing operator.

Nah, I don't feel I'm watching in the fog. It's no big deal to me. I've no idea what's likely to run in the Gold Cup at this stage and am not bothered about that either, regardless of who trains what. If, though, for example, something comes out and I find myself rating it 180 I wouldn't feel disadvantaged in betting it now at 25/1 for the Gold Cup or Champion Chase just because I don't know what Mullins might run. If it can run to 180 it wouldn't matter to me what took it on come the day. It would have a far better chance than 25/1.
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This isn't their ******* backyard they're running they horses. Also, you'll notice I only talk about the TOP ones in their yard. If I was talking about what race a novice is going to run or a handicapper then you might accuse me of going after AP markets. But I'm talking about his best horse who's nearly a year off the track and is short odds in 2 big championships. The only update he gave was just a day before the Morgiana saying he picked up a bruise or something, which didn't happen overnight, they knew about it for days.

Again, they're closeness to public is damn insulting to racing fans. And if you don't feel insulted then you're only into it for betting purposes, not for love of racing. Arsene Wenger isn't going to tell you who's going to line up because he probably would release vital information to the other side, but you do know he's running and when and who the trainer of his team is, and if a player is injured, etc. They make public announcements as soon as they have it, not with 24h before a match begins. In every sport we get treated like part of the team, with many horse racing trainers we also get treated like we're part of a family when we cheer for a horse. But with Mullins we feel on the outs and no matter how much we like the horse if he wins you always feels like its Mullins victory, not yours. Look how Elliot took Don to the streets after he won the GC, people know him he's honest and is open to public and they love a champion. With Mullins its always his gang that knows stuff and they usually go after the financial profit.
 
To quote Kevin Blake on this week's TFF podcast; "Ante post betting is dead in the water".

Mullins is a **** when it comes to giving information away and I tend to agree with Aughex in that the lack of information re Faugheen and Annie has been diabolical. True the owner and trainer have no mandatory need to update us but it's a spectator sport and we've heard fook all.

On the other hand, it does only matter if you're trying to bet ante post but then why would you when you consider a) the Mullins factor and b) the fact that bookies are nowadays shortening horses for future championship races as soon as they're entered for a two bob race 6 months prior that MAY indicate where their end of season of targets are.

There will always be exceptions where there'll be decent opportunities but like anything in life the only way to speak up is to take your money elsewhere.
 
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