Kempton boxing day

wilsonl said:
To quote Kevin Blake on this week's TFF podcast; "Ante post betting is dead in the water".
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The opposite imo. I think bookies are so lazy pricing up horses beyond the fancies ones and are horrendous recency merchants that there is always value out there.
 
When you factor in all the variants you aren't privy to there is little to no value in the ante post markets.

I'd rather take a shorter price when i know the going, the opponents, current form, yard form and whether that race is definitely the target.

We discuss a number of big races throughout the season trying to factor in all of the above yet when it comes to Cheltenham this all gets thrown out of the window, simply because the markets are available. I'll never understand it.


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Check the Ante Post thread for the past flat season. A number of members got some rampant value bets in there.

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Euronymous said:
Anibale Fly 8/1 for the Feltham. Looking for a catch, maybe not that likely to come over?
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Have finals declarations been made for this race?

I really like Virgilio, certainly hinted at coming back to some decent form last time, after a disappointing pulled-up effort at Wincanton before. He was giving away lumps of weight the last day as well.
 
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I don't do a lot of a/p betting but when I do it's usually because I have strong grounds for believing the one(s) I'm interested in is/are overpriced, regardless of the opposition.

To get back to the Mullins thing and the comments by Aughex, I stand by what I said regarding not caring how forthcoming or otherwise he is. I can watch and appreciate a race without having a bet as several people on here already know. It's actually because I'm not that bothered about the betting side in certain races that I can do this.
 
Therefore you won't miss a class horse from a G1 race and you aren't a bit bothered why the best in the division is missing from a race that he won twice before? You ain't bovered at all from the fact that no info is known why that horse is missing? Not bovered at all that the trainer treats the public like crap(including you) by only giving information to his betting mob, and not to racing fans that await news of their favourite horse? Then you are a betting man with no emotions. I am a racing fan and betting comes second, I care to know what happens with the top horses in each division, they don't hold much value anyways in the betting but its the main reason I'm watching the sport. I care for handicap horses for my betting, I care for graded horse for my pleasure. If I'm alone in this then so be it but I wish the good ones weren't with WPM.

I gave examples of CC/TC, Coneygree, Don, Altior, trainers that are updating the fans every step of the way and they don't always mention specific targets just that they'll run or not, they're healthy or not, why are they missing, when they'll be back, and very rarely what they say turns out to be false and when that happens we know why, its not a secret. WPM may be a mad genius with communication problems(outside of his inner circle) but has plenty of people around that instead of passing inside info they should treat the fans with more respect.
 
Aughex said:
Therefore you won't miss a class horse from a G1 race and you aren't a bit bothered why the best in the division is missing from a race that he won twice before?
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It depends on the horse and maybe the race. Some G1 races are so in name only and some are little more than a lap of honour for a hot favourite. It's nice to see them out there running and jumping, of course it is, but it's often little more than a public gallop and not particularly informative.

Aughex said:
... and you aren't a bit bothered why the best in the division is missing from a race that he won twice before?
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Why should I be bothered? Life holds many more challenges about which I should be bothered. This is a hobby to me, a distraction. I'm maybe jumping to the wrong conclusion here, Aughex, but I suspect I'm a lot older than you so have a more phlegmatic view of certain aspects of life. (And I don't mean that to be in the least bit patronising, honestly.)


Aughex said:
Not bovered at all that the trainer treats the public like crap(including you) by only giving information to his betting mob, and not to racing fans that await news of their favourite horse? Then you are a betting man with no emotions. I am a racing fan and betting comes second, I care to know what happens with the top horses in each division, they don't hold much value anyways in the betting but its the main reason I'm watching the sport. I care for handicap horses for my betting, I care for graded horse for my pleasure. If I'm alone in this then so be it but I wish the good ones weren't with WPM.
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Like you, the vast majority of my betting is in handicaps but I do tend to get involved in the G1s if the betting allows and especially at the festival meetings. Whether I'm bothered by his [lack of] sharing information with the public probably varies with the horse(s) involved and the race(s) but I certainly don't see that getting emotional about it will help me cope with other aspects of my life. I admit I often watch winning bets without celebrating a great deal and sometimes not at all.

To come back to a football analogy, if I'm watching my team on TV and they get an early lead I probably won't celebrate unless it's a big European match ('cos it doesn't happen too often!) and we're the underdog, but I can content myself with watching the action unfold, the goals going in and have a relaxing beer. But anyone who knows me personally will know that I am actually a very emotional person. But sport is sport. It's a distraction. I honestly don't care that others might think that Mullins is treating me with disdain. I don't believe there's anything personal on his part towards me. I don't care what he does, really, any more than he cares what I do.

I don't have favourite horses as such. I do have ones that I appear to following over cliffs but I wouldn't say they are favourites any more than I have favourite football players and I might be very curious when a player I rate very highly can't get a game for the team but that's up to the manager.

Mullins's team is a bit like Barcelona or Real Madrid. They have so many very good players they can't all get a game. It's up to the managers to decide who gets game time when. That's really all Mullins is doing. If he and his "betting mob" are profiting from that, that's their business, literally. The big banks have been screwing us by a billion times whatever the Mullins operation amounts to for years and people should maybe be getting emotional about that.

Aughex said:
I gave examples of CC/TC, Coneygree, Don, Altior, trainers that are updating the fans every step of the way and they don't always mention specific targets just that they'll run or not, they're healthy or not, why are they missing, when they'll be back, and very rarely what they say turns out to be false and when that happens we know why, its not a secret. WPM may be a mad genius with communication problems(outside of his inner circle) but has plenty of people around that instead of passing inside info they should treat the fans with more respect.
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I agree that it's good when trainers keep the public informed but the cynic in me believes that they only release what they want to and for every 'informative' release they make they're just as likely to be holding back on other stuff. I stopped reading Nicholls's Betfair blog a long time ago because it's really just a lot of meaningless pish and there is no sincerity in what he says in them. It and so many of these things is part of their advertising programme.
 
Good post DO.

Back to the Kempton action, yes Anibale Fly clear fav now at c. 3/1. Hope some of you got some of the 8s. I certainly didn't.
 
Getting 8/1 Anibale Fly was a good bit of business.

I've taken Frodon (9/2). I think that's huge value given the advantage he has on ORs (5lbs) and RPRs (8lbs), not to mention my own figures (7lbs). He really should be favourite, about half his current price.

Like Marble, I also think Virgilio is over-priced. I was hoping he'll be a wee bit longer than 14/1 on Monday morning but I've had a rethink and taken a saver at the price.
 
I'm surprised that there have been no comments on Jacob's performance on Might Bite yesterday (unless I've missed them, of course). I'm talking through my pocket but I thought it was appalling. The horse's jumping throughout the final circuit was impeccable, popping away beautifully until the final fence into which Jacob rode him as if he was a length down rather than fifteen clear. If I owned the horse he'd never ride him again.
 
gus said:
I'm surprised that there have been no comments on Jacob's performance on Might Bite yesterday (unless I've missed them, of course). I'm talking through my pocket but I thought it was appalling. The horse's jumping throughout the final circuit was impeccable, popping away beautifully until the final fence into which Jacob rode him as if he was a length down rather than fifteen clear. If I owned the horse he'd never ride him again.
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I'd be with you, gus, it was a completely avoidable situation.
 
Jacobs has been riding better than ever but I honestly thought as he approached the fence......wtf is he doing..........Jacobs was showboating and deserves your criticism
 
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