King George (flat version)

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,069
Location
Leyland
I like the betting shape of this race at present. Golden Horn takes an awful lot out of the market and it's a good each way event.

I'm torn between Flintshire who will relish the likely ground (most will though) and his master trainer has said he's better going right handed.

I think there's a big recency bias about Telescope's price. He was second in this last year and if we ignore his last run 12/1 is tidy.
 
postponed likely to run?

telescope's a weird one. everyone think he's a dog who should be avoided at all costs but for every dodgy run he puts in he's had an impressive one.
 
Gutting, I'd really started to fancy him.

I think a turn of foot merchant can do Golden Horn in this, it took him a while to get on top of TGG at Sandown and the short straight is not ideal.
 
Have to disagree there Euro
Even with Telescope I think we could see a demolition a'la Montjeu, Snow Sky for the forecast
Hopefully the forum picks up by the weekend, it's been eerily quiet since Saturday.
 
Wouldn't bank on that, Euro. It's 2f further, and GH has already shown he can take it up at any stage he chooses, so it's unlikely to be tactical.
His current price is probably an accurate reflection of his chance, over this c/d.
 
Got the end of John Gosden interview on RUK.
He is happy his horse did not have too tough an Eclipse having set his own fractions.
Having won with Nathaniel a few years ago will have Golden Horn in the right place mentally as well as everything else .
 
fonz said:
Hopefully the forum picks up by the weekend, it's been eerily quiet since Saturday.
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Very quiet.

I might be done with this race as none of the oppo have the credentials I'm looking for.

Actually Prince Gibraltar is entered in the York Stakes (and is a ridiculously big price considering the field he might face) and I would consider him for Ascot if his trainer was slightly more ambitious.
 
Euronymous said:
I might be done with this race as none of the oppo have the credentials I'm looking for.
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There's possible heavy rain forcast for the area Friday, which would go against the fav. There'd be worse ew bets than 50's Clever Cookie, on the chance of that premise being realised.
 
fonz said:
Hopefully the forum picks up by the weekend, it's been eerily quiet since Saturday.
Click to expand...

Its always quiet this time of year, July & August tend to be around 50% quieter than normal, I do find that with most forums though. Thats been the same in the 15 years the forum has been going!
Better weather (apparently), lighter nights, school holidays, people going on holiday, very little jumps racing all contribute. Its also the reason tv is light on decent stuff, all the big programmes tend to run in the September - April period for the same reason.
 
It's deeper than that, though, Col. A quick search shows the KG thread has been in decline for the past 5 years - from a high of 344 replies down to 193 last year (15, currently). Other racing forums show a similar downturn.
Don't have any answers (wish to God I did), but if all the onlookers would post a few words on just 10% of the occasions they looked in, the forum would be a better place - for them, as well as us.
 
I'd side with Postponed as I think he'll handle rainy conditions better than the others.
I don't believe he has much soft or heavy ground form, but he was beaten for a lack of turn of foot at Ascot, and so maybe rain softened ground will help. His sire Dubawi won the Jacques le Marois on Gd-St and I remember his grandsire Dubai Destination beating the Rock Of Gilbraltor or similar going as a two year old.

Purely from a betting point of view I'd back Postponed, but that's not to rubbish or detract from how good Golden Horn is.
 
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marble said:
I'd side with Postponed as I think he'll handle rainy conditions better than the others.
I don't believe he has much soft or heavy ground form, but he was beaten for a lack of turn of foot at Ascot, and so maybe rain softened ground will help. His sire Dubawi won the Jacques le Marois on Gd-St and I remember his grandsire Dubai Destination beating the Rock Of Gilbraltor or similar going as a two year old.

Purely from a betting point of view I'd back Postponed, but that's not to rubbish or detract from hoHw good Golden Horn is.
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I'm sure Cumani is of the opinion he's a top of the ground horse - it's been mentioned before (perhaps before Tattersalls Gold Cup?). His breeding suggests otherwise to me but they don't all run as the genetics say they should!
 
Kirby has been exposed as not top class this season . Atzeni is no doubt well paid but the Fahad stable is under performing and he is worthy of a better job.
 
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If the rain gets into the ground like they're suggesting it may then Madame Chiang (G1 filly & mares winner over C/D on Heavy), Clever Cookie (Soft ground lover who's stamina would come into play) & Dylan Mouth (9/9 in Italy, inc soft ground win who failed to settle at Royal Ascot in his only defeat) would be ahead of those above them in the market on my list.

Especially as Johnny G has said he'll walk the course beforehand. Because this morning the jolly is taking out c. 60% of the book and firms still offering ante price odds make any of the above three great e/w value at around the 33/1 - 50/1 mark best price. Fantastic value if he comes out and even more so if the race cuts up drastically due to extreme going change.
 
i'd be quite happy to bet a decent sum that Golden Horn will be a non runner.

First race time today points to G/S now ...and its going to rain for 24 hours so the forecast says. Heavy ground tomorrow or meeting abandoned.
 
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