King George V1 Chase Kempton Thurs 26 Dec 2019

Race of the season if they all turn up.

Think some will stay in Ireland and rest be saved.
 
Since I watched Lostintranslation win at Aintree in the spring, I've been sweet on him winning the King George. Having secured ante post at 12's, 10's and now 7's, I am hoping that he stays injury - free til Boxing Day.

I do think he's special although would need convincing that he'd get 3m2f up the Cheltenham hill.

However, Kempton's flat circuit with tricky fences will suit him just right imo.

Please stay fit.
 
Double J said:
Footpad
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I pondered the 20/1 about Footpad for so long last week and didn't pull the trigger. 12/1 shot now, so not at that price for me now. Think there's too many variables. Mainly, does he show up and how does he finish ahead of both Cryname and Lostintranslation. Not to mention the reigning champ.... At 20/1 I did think he was a great value EW play, but right now I don't believe he's a bet at current prices.
 
you'd think one of the mullins lot comes over. won't be douvan so i'd imagine footpad gets the nod over al boum or kemboy.

after some thought i think the front two in the market are pretty solid. id lean toward LIT at the prices and will probably be on him come the day.
 
Double Handful said:
So...... After today. Who wins the King George. Cyrname or Lostintranslation??
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It still has to be LIT for me. I'm not really convinced that 3m is what Cyrname needs. I'd be looking at Clan Des Obeaux for the danger to mine.

Mind you, I keep saying even getting to the post in one piece is a massive challenge. I keep expecting to see the RP headline: 'Lostintranslation setback puts Tizzard star out for season".

I really do think that LIT is almost the best jumper of a fence I've seen, He goes long, short, whatever and seems to have the quality of being able to instinctively decide which type of jump each fence needs. Most of his jumps yesterday were just plain efficient and economic, not spectacular at all. Just occasionally he'll decide that a huge leap is necessary and takes off from outside the wings but is never exuberant all the way round.

He's a joy and I just think he'll take all the beating if he makes it to post.
 
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It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts on Tuesday. Small fields and early season makes me think that he'll leave Cyrname and Altior unchanged and Lostintranslation will go up to somewhere in the range 169-172.
 
After the scratchings yesterday, 19 remain.

Altior Aso Bristol de Mai Clan des Obeaux Cyrname Defi du Seuil Duc des Genievres Enjeu d'Arthel Footpad Lostintranslation Might Bite Min Monalee Real Steel Road To Respect Thistlecrack Vinndication Voix du Reve La Bague Au Roi
 
Diamond Geezer said:
After the scratchings yesterday, 19 remain.

Altior Aso Bristol de Mai Clan des Obeaux Cyrname Defi du Seuil Duc des Genievres Enjeu d'Arthel Footpad Lostintranslation Might Bite Min Monalee Real Steel Road To Respect Thistlecrack Vinndication Voix du Reve La Bague Au Roi
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4 left in for WPM, but no Douvan (As I expected really). Footpad looking more and more likely to run here!(The only one of WPM in KG & not in the John Durkan this weekend).

Assuming Min takes up his place at the head of the John Durkan Market this weekned, he'll be gone from KG too.
Both Sullivan horses also still entered in the John Durkin (Duc De Genievres & Real Steel) - very interested to see what happens here.
I think if Duc De Genievres is to actually take his place in either race, the John Durkan has to be the most likely.

I'm on record as saying Real Steel is a very underrated horse and he interests me wherever he rocks up, including the KG if that transpires.
Fully accept Real Steel winning the KG is highly unlikely, but he'll be a huge price for a potential sneaky place I think.
I've long thought he's much the better of the 2 of him and Duc De Genievres - despite the latter's festival victory.
 
I was going to say race of the year if half of them turn up!
Clan des Obeaux would be my thought of winner at this stage, and hope Thistlecrack runs a blinder.
 
Have a nice possie on Lostintranslation from before he ran at Carlisle.

Will likely cover on Footpad and I'll consider a back to lay on Cyrname.
 
My usual mo is to put a lay in at say evs or 1.8 before the race with a front runner. It's usually matched.

If it works you can get mega prices (I backed Black Op last Friday at 7/2, he drifted to 5 on Betfair before the off. I kept piling on and I had IR lays in at 2/1 6/4 evs 1.8 1.7) I ended up with an average price of 8/1 I think. You can get stung though, Apples Jade in the Champion was painful
 
Euronymous said:
My usual mo is to put a lay in at say evs or 1.8 before the race with a front runner. It's usually matched.

If it works you can get mega prices (I backed Black Op last Friday at 7/2, he drifted to 5 on Betfair before the off. I kept piling on and I had IR lays in at 2/1 6/4 evs 1.8 1.7) I ended up with an average price of 8/1 I think. You can get stung though, Apples Jade in the Champion was painful
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Luke was smart on this kind of fun from memory

With the step up to 3m, I hope they do front run him

I hate seeing horses stepped up who like to front run who are help up

I still have a weekly nightmare of Flemenstar in the Lexus having the neck pulled off him by Lynch
 
I've been all over Cyrname for this from a long way out but I'm having genuine doubts. Given the way the race is likely to be run it feels as though something might win it ridden with restraint picking up the pieces. Cyrname has got to to keep that gallop up for another three furlongs against what is going to be the classiest field he's faced, and given just how exuberant he is there has to be a chance that he could fold. He's definitely going into the unknown and not bred for the job, although neither was Kauto and I reckon he wasn't too shabby around Kempton for the same trainer!!

I do think the pace will find Lostintranslation out, and if anything I prefer the chances of Thistlecrack of the Tizzard pair. I don't see the former placing, but I do think Thistlecrack can. His record round here is excellent and plays to his strengths. He's won a King George, finished second last year, and fourth the year inbetween, only four lengths behind Mite Bight, when that one was at his very best, and did so after making a really bad mistake two out that knocked him out of contention. 20/1 each way is a must for a horse that could do this on autopilot. He won't be that price on the day. Talking of Might Bite he's likely to rock up again but he's got too much to prove now. Back to his best he'd make a mockery of his 40/1 odds, but when his own trainer doesn't know what to expect now he's unbackable.

I also suspect that Bristol de Mai could turn the tables on Lostintranslation. At the difference in price I would much prefer 33/1 each way than 9/4 win, although I won't be backing either. One I like at long odds though is La Bague Au Roi. She won the Kauto Star Novices over course and distance beating Topofthegame in the process, which is a big tick in the box, and you'd have to think that this is her one big target for the season given her preferences. They'll have left nothing to work on and she'll be hard fit. Also given the likely fierce pace her 7lb sex allowance could come in very handy. Given the hype around others she's not an obvious choice with nobody talking about her, but 25/1 each way will do me.

Willie potentially sends two with both Footpad and Reel Steel entered. Reel Steel (25/1) isn't without a chance of a place if ridden to pick up the pieces, and you can't ignore the chances of Footpad if he jumps like he did last time, which to my eye was back to his best. I'm not sure the likely brutal pace will help him see it out though, given his best chance is to make the best of his jumping and he'll need to be up there close to the pace. I see him more of a Ryanair horse later in the season I think, and I'm not convinced he'll want this fast run three miles. You're also taking a chance that Willie sends them over anyway, although he does have a bit of a problem splitting his horses up over Christmas, so you'd think Footpad to be a likely runner.

On to my next selection, and I never though I'd say this having been against the step up in trip all along, but the one that stands out at the price is Altior at 8/1. He's an each way bet to nothing. He wasn't stopping against Cyrname, and the consensus was that Cyrname looked pretty fit, and Nicky had left a fair bit to work on with Altior. This will surely be his main target, not the Gold Cup in March. That really is a step in to the unknown, and if anything he may end up in the Ryanair or even back in the Champion Chase. Either way there won't be any 'what ifs' after this race and he'll be as ready as he has been for any race in his life. I've a nagging doubt that Ascot in the ground may have left a mark on him, but 8/1 is still too big to turn down and I have to back him each relative to Cyrname's price.

Cyrname's stablemate Clan des Obeaux has been there and done that, but I reckon he won a soft King George last year and it was run to suit. This race is much deeper and he'll struggle to see it out. I've no doubt Cobden will choose Cyrname which will tell us all we need to know about how Nicholls sees the race. You can't argue that Nicholls knows how to win it though, and you have to respect the reigning champs credentials. At the price, the depth of opposition, and the likely end to end fierce gallop I can't give him a second glance this year though.

In summary I'm already on Cyrname antepost, and have some multiples running on to him, and also out of him to the Festival. I intend to lay my win bets as free bets on some each way plays, and I may cash out one or two multiples too as I'm probably a shade too deep in. He's profitable for me now whatever and pays for a few more plays on the race, so I want to get into the race each way.

Altior at 8/1, Thistlecrack at 20/1, and La Bague Au Roi at 25/1 are my plays all each way, and in my opinion all with the win part of the bet in play.
 
I'd be happy with your position Paul

If Thistlecrack comes near winning this, it's not a great sign for the hottest gold cup in years

He'll run a brave race for sure but if LIT cannot pick him off, i'd be amazed
 
Maruco said:
I've been all over Cyrname for this from a long way out but I'm having genuine doubts. Given the way the race is likely to be run it feels as though something might win it ridden with restraint picking up the pieces. Cyrname has got to to keep that gallop up for another three furlongs against what is going to be the classiest field he's faced, and given just how exuberant he is there has to be a chance that he could fold. He's definitely going into the unknown and not bred for the job, although neither was Kauto and I reckon he wasn't too shabby around Kempton for the same trainer!!

I do think the pace will find Lostintranslation out, and if anything I prefer the chances of Thistlecrack of the Tizzard pair. I don't see the former placing, but I do think Thistlecrack can. His record round here is excellent and plays to his strengths. He's won a King George, finished second last year, and fourth the year inbetween, only four lengths behind Mite Bight, when that one was at his very best, and did so after making a really bad mistake two out that knocked him out of contention. 20/1 each way is a must for a horse that could do this on autopilot. He won't be that price on the day. Talking of Might Bite he's likely to rock up again but he's got too much to prove now. Back to his best he'd make a mockery of his 40/1 odds, but when his own trainer doesn't know what to expect now he's unbackable.

I also suspect that Bristol de Mai could turn the tables on Lostintranslation. At the difference in price I would much prefer 33/1 each way than 9/4 win, although I won't be backing either. One I like at long odds though is La Bague Au Roi. She won the Kauto Star Novices over course and distance beating Topofthegame in the process, which is a big tick in the box, and you'd have to think that this is her one big target for the season given her preferences. They'll have left nothing to work on and she'll be hard fit. Also given the likely fierce pace her 7lb sex allowance could come in very handy. Given the hype around others she's not an obvious choice with nobody talking about her, but 25/1 each way will do me.

Willie potentially sends two with both Footpad and Reel Steel entered. Reel Steel (25/1) isn't without a chance of a place if ridden to pick up the pieces, and you can't ignore the chances of Footpad if he jumps like he did last time, which to my eye was back to his best. I'm not sure the likely brutal pace will help him see it out though, given his best chance is to make the best of his jumping and he'll need to be up there close to the pace. I see him more of a Ryanair horse later in the season I think, and I'm not convinced he'll want this fast run three miles. You're also taking a chance that Willie sends them over anyway, although he does have a bit of a problem splitting his horses up over Christmas, so you'd think Footpad to be a likely runner.

On to my next selection, and I never though I'd say this having been against the step up in trip all along, but the one that stands out at the price is Altior at 8/1. He's an each way bet to nothing. He wasn't stopping against Cyrname, and the consensus was that Cyrname looked pretty fit, and Nicky had left a fair bit to work on with Altior. This will surely be his main target, not the Gold Cup in March. That really is a step in to the unknown, and if anything he may end up in the Ryanair or even back in the Champion Chase. Either way there won't be any 'what ifs' after this race and he'll be as ready as he has been for any race in his life. I've a nagging doubt that Ascot in the ground may have left a mark on him, but 8/1 is still too big to turn down and I have to back him each relative to Cyrname's price.

Cyrname's stablemate Clan des Obeaux has been there and done that, but I reckon he won a soft King George last year and it was run to suit. This race is much deeper and he'll struggle to see it out. I've no doubt Cobden will choose Cyrname which will tell us all we need to know about how Nicholls sees the race. You can't argue that Nicholls knows how to win it though, and you have to respect the reigning champs credentials. At the price, the depth of opposition, and the likely end to end fierce gallop I can't give him a second glance this year though.

In summary I'm already on Cyrname antepost, and have some multiples running on to him, and also out of him to the Festival. I intend to lay my win bets as free bets on some each way plays, and I may cash out one or two multiples too as I'm probably a shade too deep in. He's profitable for me now whatever and pays for a few more plays on the race, so I want to get into the race each way.

Altior at 8/1, Thistlecrack at 20/1, and La Bague Au Roi at 25/1 are my plays all each way, and in my opinion all with the win part of the bet in play.
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good post but there's a slight contradiction in there by putting up thistlecrack, in part due to his 2nd last year, when you go on to somewhat dismiss Clan due to winning a bad race last year. i guess there's a price differential but i'd be massively disappointed in LIT if his stablemate crosses the line before him.

if the mare wins well on sunday without too much of a hard race she'll be interesting.
 
I'm not sure about LIT seeing out a fast run three miles PJ. The race at Haydock was pretty slow and he was just quicker than BDM. My feeling is this race may well find him out. One run in open company out sprinting BDM is enough for me to want to take him on at 5/2 anyway. This race is more likely to be run to suit BDM of the two, and BDM's record isn't great around Kempton. That said I think Twiston-Davies might have held something back this time rather than leave his race behind at Haydock.
 
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