King George VI And QE Stakes

Use RPR if you want

According to them he ran 13lb below his best RPR yesterday, that is 8.66 lengths
 
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But only a small portion of that was the result of the interference. He had his head up in the air and wasn`t enjoying the ground way before that. Even without getting caught in a pocket he`d have run pounds below his best.
 
Yes CharlieD - I get it. You're quite adept at manipulating figures to prove to yourself that a horse that was beaten 9 1/2l would have won the race if he hadn't run into some interference.

I get it just fine :rolleyes:
 
Youmzain ran a stone below his best yesterday, that stone puts him right there at winning line, now whether he would have won no one knows, but...

Thats how much the interference cost the horse

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that statement charlie is as daft as claiming the world is flat or elvis is alive and kicking and lives in basildon

14lbs, approximately! How did you figure that out?
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he took a sniff of crack waved his index finger around and came up with the first figure he could think of

The interference Youmzain received yesterday in no way cost him the race. He was a long way from winnning it.
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in reality it didnt even cost him 2nd place

get a grip on reality
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Charlie D said:
Use RPR if you want

According to them he ran 13lb below his best RPR yesterday, that is 8.66 lengths
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I do not think Youmzain ran right up to his very best...but equally I do not think he would have been good enough anyway and that his "poor" run cannot be put down to interference alone.

I personally think his run at Saint Cloud probably flattered him (you know what my views are regarding SOF) and a top class colt like Dylan Thomas hammered him on a similar surface last year.
 
a top class colt like Dylan Thomas hammered him on a similar surface last year.
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i think he was certainly flattered to finsish so close to dt in the arc a suspicion that he just ran through beaten horses and a below form dt
 
OK

But you'll put down say Dylan Thomas getting beat 12.66 on soft ground alone


Same thing happening, but caused by a different variable
 
prince regent said:
Youmzain ran a stone below his best yesterday, that stone puts him right there at winning line, now whether he would have won no one knows, but...

Thats how much the interference cost the horse

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that statement charlie is as daft as claiming the world is flat or elvis is alive and kicking and lives in basildon



he took a sniff of crack waved his index finger around and came up with the first figure he could think of



in reality it didnt even cost him 2nd place

get a grip on reality
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Don't do drugs mate, nor do i have my head up my own arse like some
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sorry

are you trying to be serious then??

i thought the youzmain was unlucky and he lost 9l in the race was some sort of joke/wind up
 
Are you trying to be serious when you state

thats as good as he is
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His runs in Coronation, Arc, Grand Prix De Saint Cloud etc tell you that statement is false.
 
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My initial reaction was that, that didn't look like a 9L piece of interference and duly stated so. I too thought that those people who sought to attribute Ask carving Youmzain up were slightly barking, but then having looked at own my own figures I've got a problem!!! I could easily draw the same conclusion. I think we need to understand the issue of cause and effect here.

I'm no paddock judge but every now and then a horse looks so good that even I can't fail to notice it. Duke of Marmalade was superb and looked by far and away the most composed horse, shiny in his coat and muscled up to the point that he looked like a miler or even a sprinter.

If this thing stays the extra 2 furlongs I thought he just might be in a different league . It wasn't that disimilar to the first time I saw Denman in the SAC. Having been sceptical about the horse I suddenly had a Damascus moment as all the fog of confusion and doubts were suddenly blown away in an instant.

The last time I saw Aiden O'Brien was a few years ago and he was all nerves and phones. Yesterday he just strutted in like an emperor peacock at the head of the Ballydoyle entourage and just seemed to radiate an aura that he knew the result was a foregone conclusion. Youmzain also looked fit (indeed he got saddled with the curse of best turned out) but he was sweating slightly and a little bit fractious. It wouldn't have been enough to necessarily worry you too much normally, but compared to the way Duke of Marmalade was holding it together, the difference was marked. They paraded and went down in a similar fashion. If a horse can be 'professional', then Duke of Marmalade was, where as Youmzain was showing a few signs of distress, and Lucarno looked decidely uninterested. Youmzain jumped off the worst of the lot (I don't believe you can call that unlucky, that's just poor on either horse or jockeys part) and didn't real seem to settle for the first three quarters of a mile.

All of this rambling leads me to conclude that I'd be more inclined to look for explanations elsewhere rather than the idea that Youmzain lost 9L's due to interference. His recent good performances have been faster than Duke of Marmalades I don't doubt that, and the O'Brien horse still remains something of an enigma with me. There's mor ethan one way to win a race though. Duke of Marmalade has never really run a good Group 1 time with me, but that's not unheard of. If I were to take their fastest reliable times from the last 9 months (I'm not certain that St Cloud wasn't disrupted by a host of suspiciously slow races, dovetailing with one exceptionally fast one which can bugger up the variance calculation) then I'd have Youmzain between 13 and 7.25L's faster. If I split the four races involved it works out as shade over 10L's, which is pretty well where EC is. I think we differ however, regarding how we attribute this drop in performance. At 12F's 1L = 1.5Ibs, so my 10L projection suggests Youmzain was 15Ibs below recent performances yesterday (even more shocking and one which surprised me having originally poured cold water on the idea). I just can't accept though that this was down to the interference he met, I think there's a combination of other explanations, and it's probably just a bit too simplistic (or even optimistic) to point to thsi one incident and then try and say that's where it all went wrong.

I'm not sure that evidence of bad luck, any more than I think he was flattered to get so close to Dylan Thomas in the Arc. Indeed, on the day in question, I think it would much easier to defend the notion that Dylan Thomas was the lucky horse, and if I remember rightly, there were more than just a few on here who thought he'd lose the race whilst the stewards deliberated.
 
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Warbler said:
and it's probably just a bit too simplistic (or even optimistic) to point to thsi one incident and then try and say that's where it all went wrong.

I'm not sure that evidence of bad luck, any more than I think he was flattered to get so close to Dylan Thomas in the Arc. Indeed, on the day in question, I think it would much easier to defend the notion that Dylan Thomas was the lucky horse, and if I remember rightly, there were more than just a few on here who thought he'd lose the race whilst the stewards deliberated.
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He didn`t have his ground yesterday simple as that. Conversely he did in Paris and DT didn`t, that was why he got so close.
 
IF the ground was the same today as yesterday..big if knowing how they like watering..then using todays 2.15.. 12f handicap it makes DOM running to a speed figure of 117 by how I calculate them.

not too scientific I know..any views on a speed figure Warbler?
 
I might need to re-check as the initial evidence looked good, it's just that when I put it through it came out surprisingly slow again. In essence Duke of Marmalde has raced Youmzain on his terms rather than on Youmzain's. I felt the ground yesterday was borderline Firm. I'd probably call it Good to Firm, Firm in places, Youmzains better performances have come on ground riding on the quick side of Good or Good, Good to Firm in places. I made the Arc +1.97 for instance, where Dylan Thomas's better performances tended to be on ground riding in excess of +3.00 (ironically, I don't think last years King George was that different to last years Arc)
 
Warbler said:
I might need to re-check as the initial evidence looked good, it's just that when I put it through it came out surprisingly slow again. In essence Duke of Marmalde has raced Youmzain on his terms rather than on Youmzain's. I felt the ground yesterday was borderline Firm. I'd probably call it Good to Firm, Firm in places, Youmzains better performances have come on ground riding on the quick side of Good or Good, Good to Firm in places. I made the Arc +1.97 for instance, where Dylan Thomas's better performances tended to be on ground riding in excess of +3.00 (ironically, I don't think last years King George was that different to last years Arc)
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more a speed test than a stamina one I would agree..if the times can be trusted

could also explain a little of why Youmzain was not suited too well..PB & DOM basically sprinted away from them..pace not hard enough to bring the others into it...guessing a bit :eek:
 
Two horses of similar abitly, one gets a clear run the other does not

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sS6q36Xqcps

horse that didn't get the clear run was beaten 8 lengths by the horse who got the clear run


Here, those same two horses have a clean trip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjt4SiRatB0&NR=1


No 8 length beating here


An excellent example of one horse running below his best because of a troubled trip, but bouncing back to his best when he does not meet trouble
 
An excellent example of one horse running below his best because of a troubled trip, but bouncing back to his best when he does not meet trouble
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but of no relevence to saturday im sure if one could be bothered plenty of video clips could be found of both unlucky losers overturning the form and unlucky losers not over turning the form

but there again youzmain wasnt unlucky he never gave any indication he was going to win the race a fact that both the jockey and if u read the owners agent bruce raymond in the rp acknowledge

nadooh in the 1000 gns was supposed to be unlucky in running at newmarket fav for the irish 1000 gns and what happened
 
Youmzain
very slowly away, held up in rear, headway 5f out, ridden and not clear run and switched left 2f out, soon squeezed out and lost place, rallied to go modest 3rd inside final furlong, no chance with leading pair
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Youmzain had no chance because of what happened to him, just like Curlin had no chance because of what happened him

Talk about banging head against wall
 
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