King George VI And QE Stakes

Stoute has always had a reputation for improving his older horses and it could just be that Papal Bull is as talented as the form suggests but it has taken a new jockey [Peslier] to coax him into showing it. It might just as easily go belly-up next time.

either that...or Timeform haven't used their loaf or all the race evidence when coming up with a rating

so we are saying that a jockey has improved PB by nearly 10lbs

it's odd that...because when 99% of punters are asked what are the most relevant factors affecting the outcome of a race the jock usually comes bottom
 
In general I agree with you EC, but I would say very few would have described Papal Bull as pacey beforehand...1m4f is his bare minimum. So a slow pace(which I assume your pointing to) hard suited him and does not explain him running the race he did particularly from where he came from (out the back).
 
tend to agree that at first glance PB doesn't look speed...but if you look at past wins/good runs they have tended to come in slowish run affairs where speed is a handy tool to have.

I would not say he cries out speed for sure,,but off a steady...he is always going to out-run the confirmed stayers
 
Hmmm I do not agree, I think your trying to fit it in nicely to the slow pace theory but the truth is there is little to suggest based on his breeding, running style or past performances that suggest he is well suited to coming from last to first off a slow run race. His run in a strong run Geoffrey Free over a 1m5f where he did was stay on strong backs that. This horse could be a Cup horse is connections wanted him to be.
 
that geoffrey freer was a really poor race though and didn't really prove much ...except that PB could beat a poor field over that distance

there is no way the KG was a true test over the trip...if it had been...there would not have been 9 lengths back..and no 132 rating

timeform look to have come to a lazy conclusion to me...scared to downrate DOM even though it was clear before the race that this was a below standard KG

making PB a 132 horse to somehow rate DOM high looks silly to me

i'm looking forward to seeing the "new" galvanised 132 rated PB run again now he looks a better horse than many Arc winners:eek:
 
Interesting. Slow paces usually cause finishing distances to be compressed, rather than exaggerated. Also, Papal Bull was coming out of a race where he was unable to use his speed to catch a Leger winner who was giving him 5lbs - the same horse being one of those stayers inconvenienced by the slow pace of the King George.
 
EC1 said:
timeform look to have come to a lazy conclusion to me...scared to downrate DOM even though it was clear before the race that this was a below standard KG

i'm looking forward to seeing the "new" galvanised 132 rated PB run again now he looks a better horse than many Arc winners:eek:
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I don`t they`re scared to downrate DoM. He`s a 130+ animal over 10f and 128/9 over 12. Nothing wrong with that.
If Papal Bull was a 132 animal i`m faaaairly sure he wouldn`t be available at 27 for the Arc.
 
This rating rather reminds me of a theory put forward by Swirly Chaser some time ago, namely that it is entirely feasible for a horse to run well above itself in defeat. There are innumerable examples of such runs in the form book, runs which had never been achieved previously and, history has proven were never achieved again.
 
This is true of speed ratings as well. Often a horse's fastest run comes in defeat when trying to keep up with others who are better.

Handicap and speed ratings based on winning form are generally a safer indicator of a horse's achievements.
 
This is true of speed ratings as well. Often a horse's fastest run comes in defeat when trying to keep up with others who are better
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Yara placed 2nd 14 times, including 2nd in the phoenix stakes Grp 1 and other pattern races, never won a race, didn't want to, just didn't want to be embarassed by the winner :eek:

Doing the business as a mare now though.
 
simmo said:
This rating rather reminds me of a theory put forward by Swirly Chaser some time ago, namely that it is entirely feasible for a horse to run well above itself in defeat. There are innumerable examples of such runs in the form book, runs which had never been achieved previously and, history has proven were never achieved again.
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And usually those runs are accompanied by an iffy time. I tend to ignore those runs.
 
If the KG had been a listed race...what would the winner have been rated?

imo the race has been rated instead of the form

thats ok as long as the race is an average renewal...it wasn't.. but has been rated as though it was

how can a race be deemed below average before a race...by most people...but then be alloted a rating totally in contrast to that view?

the form itself is worth nowt...but the second is now rated as one of the best horses in Europe by timeform :confused:
 
how can a race be deemed below average before a race...by most people...but then be alloted a rating totally in contrast to that view?
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Didn't that happen last year? Some of the OTT posts in various places before that race were ridiculous.
 
Papal Bull was coming out of a race where he was unable to use his speed to catch a Leger winner who was giving him 5lbs - the same horse being one of those stayers inconvenienced by the slow pace of the King George.

but that race was on slow ground..PB needs fast ground to show his best..which was my reason for backing him in the KG...he had every right to finish in the first 3 in the KG..his form over 12f on fast ground was actually the best in the race..check it out.
 
I know it's the King George and Duke of Marmalade etc., but 22 pages?!

Fuck me, I think that might even kick the national into touch! :p

Seriously though, a good thread.
 
David Conolly-Smith​




Cologne: Rheinland-Pokal der Sparkasse KolnBonn (Group 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

PAPAL BULL, who gave Duke of Marmalade such a fright at Ascot three weeks ago, faces much weaker competition in the Rheinland-Pokal der Sparkasse KolnBonn at Cologne on Sunday.

However this is still a Group 1 race - something which is missing from Papal Bull's CV - and could be important for his pending stud career due to start next year.

Sir Michael Stoute's colt is at least 10lb superior to his five rivals on official ratings and in theory has a simple task, but he has a notoriously unreliable character and it remains to be seen which Papal Bull will turn up.

David Stack of owners the Papal Bull syndicate said: "Ryan Moore has been booked to ride and Michael reports him to be well and good. All we can do is hope for the best."

The Deutsches Derby winner Kamsin is much the best of the Germans.
"We're giving a lot of weight to this year's German Derby winner," Stack added. In the ratings they rate us 126, him 116 and that would be giving 10lb.

“But if he runs like he did at Ascot and proves that he's rated 132 then he would show his Timeform rating wasn't a fluke. He is a very talented horse and it's all credit to Michael."
Kamsin's trainer Peter Schiergen trains on this course and, speaking from Deauville Sales on Friday, said: “He's in very good form and I'm looking forward to taking on Papal Bull.”

The field could be cut to five as First Stream may miss the race. Her intended rider, Andreas Helfenbein, was injured when his mount played up down at the stalls before a race at Deauville on Thursday.

He was released from hospital there on Friday morning and was driven home to Cologne.

Arm or hand injuries were originally suspected but Helfenbein thinks he may have damaged his neck and was planning to see his doctor.

Mario Hofer, who trains the four-year-old, said he was uncertain about First Stream's participation and would discuss it with the owner.

The headstrong Oriental Tiger made all to win a Group 2 over course and distance in April and looks best of the others.
 
Any ideas if RUK or (more likely) ATR will show this? Or SIS for that matter. I'd even be prepared to go into a betting shop to see this race!
 
No mention in the RP whether either of the channels will be showing it, I daresay one or other will, though maybe not live


4:15 RHEINLAND-POKAL DER SPARKASSE KOLNBONN (GROUP 1) (3YO+) (3yo+) Winner £73,529.00 1m4f GOOD
6 run

No. Form Horse Trainer RTF %
Wgt Jockey
1(5) -658 First Stream 34 Mario Hofer 4 9-6 A Helfenbein
120 -

2(1) -115 Oriental Tiger 84
course_distance_winner.gif
beaten_favourite.gif
U Ostmann 5 9-6b T Hellier
119 -

3(4) -422 Papal Bull 22
distance_winner.gif
Sir Michael Stoute 5 9-6 Ryan Moore
135 -

4(3) 62-8 Prinz 49 A Wohler 4 9-6 E Pedroza
103 -

5(2) 3130 Akiem 42 Andreas Lowe 3 8-8 A Suborics
106 -

6(6) 1141 Kamsin 42
distance_winner.gif
P Schiergen 3 8-8 A Starke
 
Oriental Tiger must now be a 140+ horse :p

PB - 132 horse..I don't think so

now check out PB's rating either side of the KG...and then put a correct rating on that race :cool:
 
he has run rpr of 120 before on Good ground..twice..his best RPR's..I would guess there is no reason he hasn't run similarily today

one thing is certain..check out his form and tell me that KG doesn't stick out like a sore thumb..terrible overrating..particularly when you see it sandwiched with todays race..a race in which he had lbs in hand according to his "new" rating...so..to be fair the fact he didn't have fast ground should not matter...he had lengths in hand of these...or did he...imo he didn't..because I did not believe the latest rating

that KG rating has been inflated to make DOM look really good at 12f..it's a nonsense
 
the fact is that in the KG..he had the best ratings going into the race..if you just used the race conditions that day...he didn't need to improve a jot to place in what was a poor KG
 
Todays run obviously casts a shadow on the King George form, I would definitely agree with you. I do think that the horse's temperament as well as the reliability of the 132 rating is a contributory factor to todays performance. Even if 132 is as much as 5/6 lb too high, he still should have won today without too much fuss.
 
got to say I am a little confused over the 132...I assume that is on a different scale to the RPR and OHR scale

as far as I know though..RPR and Timeform are the same??

not sure...can someone explain the scales for all 3

as far as I know..timeform 0-140..same as RPR

confused
 
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