King George VI And QE Stakes
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
EC1
On a break
neither the jockey or the owners rep seems to be backing up your daft theories
I have a question - why is it that when anyone suggests something on here...if about 5 or 6 people disagree with it it is deemed "daft" "simplistic" or some other suggestion pointing to the originator of the suggestion being some kind of soft sod etc
I'm not being funny here but there are some real dyed in the wool views passed regularly on here...which even when proven to be just that...are still stuck by using a multitude of excuses before or after the event.
this is just my observation after reading numerous threads over the last few months.
i'm not having a go..just interested
I have a question - why is it that when anyone suggests something on here...if about 5 or 6 people disagree with it it is deemed "daft" "simplistic" or some other suggestion pointing to the originator of the suggestion being some kind of soft sod etc
I'm not being funny here but there are some real dyed in the wool views passed regularly on here...which even when proven to be just that...are still stuck by using a multitude of excuses before or after the event.
this is just my observation after reading numerous threads over the last few months.
i'm not having a go..just interested
davidjohnson
At the Start
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- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Interesting stuff EC and Warbler. A pity this thread has developed as it has.
The ground was nowhere near being on the slow side at St Cloud. You really must learn to take a more sceptical view of clerks declarations, as it can seriously mislead you into some completely false angles. You need to be particularly careful about French going descriptions, they'd calll wet grass soft ground!!!
It's one of the beauties of calculating your own variance figures as it gives me a much more reliable (although not infallible) idea of what the horse has truly performed on, although this has been negated by Dave Edwards introduction of a 'time based going' in the results summary now.
Youmzain was +3.40 secs faster than standard,
you simply can not record that kind of time on slow ground. He has blasted standard away (as indeed will most of those who followed him home). Let me give you some context at 12F's. Authorized beat standard in winning a Derby by 1.23 secs, and New Approach failed to beat it by 0.70 secs.Treat Gently in the 12F fillies Gp2 race for 3yo's also beat standard on the same card, and the 2yo was only 1.30 seconds away for the unraced horses race. My own figure for the day was +2.38 which is pretty close to Good to Firm. I wouldn't take one iota of notice of the Good to Soft declared. You don't beat standard (all things being equal) on soft or slow ground, and certainly not by those kind of margins. You don't need to compile ratings or going variance to spot the anomoly here. A simple look at the race times should be enough to alert you to the fact that something doesn't add up, and the likelihood is that the French have given out yet another misleading going correction (It occurs about 66% of the time)
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Warbler and EC post some interesting thoughts DJ and your right, it is a pity
Simple analysis seems hard for some people to comprehend
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See what i mean
Horse ran 127 last out, today it runs 114, almost a stone below previous
Ground was not a problem, track not a problem, so what cause it to run almost stone below it's previous run
Lack of a clear run as the video and in running comments will show
Simple analysis, nothing complicated
Horse ran 127 last out, today it runs 114, almost a stone below previous
Ground was not a problem, track not a problem, so what cause it to run almost stone below it's previous run
Lack of a clear run as the video and in running comments will show
Simple analysis, nothing complicated
Granted DOM would all but certainly have won the race anyway, all of them being given a clear run. However, some on here are still refusing to accept what should be obvious to anyone who actually watches the race!
Youmzain was very slow out of the stalls, he was then interfered with twice in running - firstly by Ask, the second and more serious time by Papal Bull, who knocked him right off balance c1.5 furlongs from home. He had to be snatched up. He also at one point round the back got boxed in by DOM - quite unaccountably.
Whether he or the jockey was under par or half-asleep, or both, who knows? - but it's senseless to judge the horse on this run. Some people are talking as if he ever had a chance to win! For much of the race he was barely being ridden; in fact I'd go so far as to say he was never really put in the race at all, except to snatch third place a the last gasp
So many people on here, and we've seen it with other big races, just decide what they think before the race and don't seem to actually WATCH the thing objectively at all
Youmzain was very slow out of the stalls, he was then interfered with twice in running - firstly by Ask, the second and more serious time by Papal Bull, who knocked him right off balance c1.5 furlongs from home. He had to be snatched up. He also at one point round the back got boxed in by DOM - quite unaccountably.
Whether he or the jockey was under par or half-asleep, or both, who knows? - but it's senseless to judge the horse on this run. Some people are talking as if he ever had a chance to win! For much of the race he was barely being ridden; in fact I'd go so far as to say he was never really put in the race at all, except to snatch third place a the last gasp
So many people on here, and we've seen it with other big races, just decide what they think before the race and don't seem to actually WATCH the thing objectively at all
Shadow Leader
At the Start
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- Messages
- 9,884
How can you say no-one has watched the race objectively at all when you yourself appear to be claiming that Youmazin was unlucky not to have won the race, due to the interference? I'd suggest that those who are claiming such are not watching the race objectively.
For whatever reason, Youmzain didn't look at any point like he was going to win this race. That has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not he was capable of winning it on past form, Charlie - on this occasion he didn't ever look like a threat. Has Hughes not said he didn't think the horse felt right throughout the race? It was not the interference that beat Youmzain since he wasn't in a position to run the leaders close enough anyway.
Even the connections have said the same, with Bruce Raymond stating
...which is about right, I'd say. However, not by any stretch of the imagination could you claim that it cost him the race.
For whatever reason, Youmzain didn't look at any point like he was going to win this race. That has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not he was capable of winning it on past form, Charlie - on this occasion he didn't ever look like a threat. Has Hughes not said he didn't think the horse felt right throughout the race? It was not the interference that beat Youmzain since he wasn't in a position to run the leaders close enough anyway.
Even the connections have said the same, with Bruce Raymond stating
...which is about right, I'd say. However, not by any stretch of the imagination could you claim that it cost him the race.
A horse can't look a threat when it not getting a clear run
Was Curlin a threat to Street Sense? NO, Street Sense had flown the coop
just going round in circles here, so no point carrying on.
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EC1
On a break
comments like that are easy to pen, they mean nothing and don't make anyone look smart, informed or shrewd...in fact to me...they give off exactly the opposite impression of those three things.
why don't you contribute something more positive?...are you a naturally negative bod in life?
you know..agreeing with someone..or posting something positive about a person who appears to be one of the boards kicking dogs...which EW ceratinly seems to be treated...although his knowledge is way beyond most on here...isn't against the rules...even giving that person a respectful answer isn't..would it hurt?
I think sometimes messageboards really imitate the schoolyard..there was always one or two at school who the rest used as kicking dogs. To try and earn "respect"... those just below the worthies... had to kick the dog to earn respect from the worthies...it can be so similar on messagebboards...so similar.
I don't care how clever anyone thinks they are...respecting someone else's view should always be important...if you don't agree..then say why..any fool can post throwaway one liners.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Of course arguing on a forum is in essence no different than in real life, I have some really heated ones about football at work. But these posts are in black and white so seem more personal somehow. Maybe the fact that these heated discussions are between people who don`t really know each other make them seem worse than they really are as well.
EC1
On a break
For anyone interested in the sectional times of the KG compared to the handicap won by Pippa Green..these are taken not from the start because ATR don't have full races...I picked a point very shortly after the start where I knew I could compare like with like. I have used points at the start of the two bends for easy reference...these are the leader's times
KG
28.4
90.1
138.1
Handicap
27.7
89.8
138.9
It's fair to say that they didn't go overly fast early in the handicap as Luberon was still there until the very last strides..it's important to know that the handicap was a fair one..pace looked pretty even...which it very much looks likely..the other handicap run on Sunday was run decidely slower...so we can very much benchmark the handicap as a pretty fairly run race...seemed to suit all styles of running...which is a clear indicator they didn't tear off...OR go too slow early.
It's fair to say that they did not really go that hard early in the KG in comparison...the first split shows they went slow enough to help DOM get the trip..if the handicap is a benchmark it would be fair to expect the KG to have been run a full second quicker...at that point
the second point of reading shows the KG was still slower than you would expect..a Group 1 race should have been probably again been run a bit quicker than the handicap at this point..it was still slightly slower
it's not hard to see how staying types struggled late on...the speed horses still had petrol left and were not going to be sitting ducks to be outstayed...the first two..have simply sprinted away from horses that needed that bit of extra pace early on.
the injection of pace 3 out also caused problems with jockeys looking for position.
I'm sure someone else may read more into these times..but that is my quick analysis
KG
28.4
90.1
138.1
Handicap
27.7
89.8
138.9
It's fair to say that they didn't go overly fast early in the handicap as Luberon was still there until the very last strides..it's important to know that the handicap was a fair one..pace looked pretty even...which it very much looks likely..the other handicap run on Sunday was run decidely slower...so we can very much benchmark the handicap as a pretty fairly run race...seemed to suit all styles of running...which is a clear indicator they didn't tear off...OR go too slow early.
It's fair to say that they did not really go that hard early in the KG in comparison...the first split shows they went slow enough to help DOM get the trip..if the handicap is a benchmark it would be fair to expect the KG to have been run a full second quicker...at that point
the second point of reading shows the KG was still slower than you would expect..a Group 1 race should have been probably again been run a bit quicker than the handicap at this point..it was still slightly slower
it's not hard to see how staying types struggled late on...the speed horses still had petrol left and were not going to be sitting ducks to be outstayed...the first two..have simply sprinted away from horses that needed that bit of extra pace early on.
the injection of pace 3 out also caused problems with jockeys looking for position.
I'm sure someone else may read more into these times..but that is my quick analysis
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EC1
On a break
duplicated
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What's your analysis Luke?
EC1
On a break
at the last bend reading RRC was leading at 90.1 seconds...DOM was approx 5 lengths behind with PB approx 7 lengths behind
it would be fair to say that PB has run exceptionally well as DOM was accelerating with petrol left and PB pulled those 2 lengths back and went probably half up..no mean feat
it could be fair to say that PB may have been a little too far back to actually win this race because the exertion of quickening faster than a horse that had petrol left...has emptied out PB.
it would also dispel the idea that PB should have come later...he needed to be closer to DOM when they came into the straight to have a chance of winning...so the jock [OP] did the the best thing in trying to eat into POB's lead at that point
his only error may have been being too far back as they turned into the straight..but generally he has given PB a good ride imho...pains me to say it like :growl:
it would be fair to say that PB has run exceptionally well as DOM was accelerating with petrol left and PB pulled those 2 lengths back and went probably half up..no mean feat
it could be fair to say that PB may have been a little too far back to actually win this race because the exertion of quickening faster than a horse that had petrol left...has emptied out PB.
it would also dispel the idea that PB should have come later...he needed to be closer to DOM when they came into the straight to have a chance of winning...so the jock [OP] did the the best thing in trying to eat into POB's lead at that point
his only error may have been being too far back as they turned into the straight..but generally he has given PB a good ride imho...pains me to say it like :growl:
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EC1
On a break
It would also be fair to say that Luberon as the leader in the handicap ...had he run in the KG...would have finished 5 lengths behind DOM looking at the split times.
the importance of pace in a race..can help horses that shouldn't be able to win to run way above their level...if they get the run of the race
the luberon issue shows that the pace in the KG just was not near what it should have been
the importance of pace in a race..can help horses that shouldn't be able to win to run way above their level...if they get the run of the race
the luberon issue shows that the pace in the KG just was not near what it should have been
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Despite one or two straying off topic I have enjoyed this thread. Interesting timings from the two races EC.
A race like this sets the season up nicely...a) looking forward to seeing if DOM can be as good as I think he is b) Can Stoute get a Group 1 out of Papal Bull and c) are the likes of Charlie and co right about Youmzain- I do not think so but it should make for an interesting build up to the Arc!
A race like this sets the season up nicely...a) looking forward to seeing if DOM can be as good as I think he is b) Can Stoute get a Group 1 out of Papal Bull and c) are the likes of Charlie and co right about Youmzain- I do not think so but it should make for an interesting build up to the Arc!
EC1
On a break
I think Youmzain will be a different horse when not asked to quicken like that...needs others to come back from a crippling pace...didn't get that here.
Youmzain will be disregarded by many punters after this run...but add in the going...pace negative...interference ...and you can hardly expect the horse to have done much better.
Youmzain will be disregarded by many punters after this run...but add in the going...pace negative...interference ...and you can hardly expect the horse to have done much better.