King George VI Chase

Ardross said:
SteveM said:
EC1 said:
the thing is though..if you don't look at races like Ardross has laid out...you see races through rose tinted specatacles

With respect, I have not made a false over-simplification . Henderson was plain that Riverside Theatre would not be suited by soft ground , albeit rory is quite right to point out that his particular concern was heavy ground . The second element that appears not to have been considered is that there are grounds for arguing that RT did not stay . He was backpedalling and a struggling Kauto had gone past him before the terrible mistake. Moreover, Henderson is plain he won't be supplemented for the GC and is going for the Ryanair .

As for having a string of injured and sick horses strung out behind him - so what . That means sod all .
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Again with respect, he has won on at least a couple of occasions on going on the soft side. He handled that going well enough (...I was watching him). Any softer and he wouldn't have been seen at his best I'd agree.
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Bar the Bull said:
RT could be anything. He could be a 168 rated top notcher. He could be a donkey.

Or he could be a decent horse in the mid 150's.
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He couldn't be a donkey... He's proved he is not. He has run above mid-150s in his last four completed starts. Therefore while he could go on to be even better, he is already confirmed as decent and not below that threshold.
 
Hamm said:
Ardross, why don't you analyse Kauto's last King George win in the same vein and then you will have to come to the conclusion horses behind him didn't run their race as he has done nothing since to justify that preposterous rating?
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The likes of Madison Du Berlais and Barber Shop had done far more to justify their ratings prior to their King George runs than Riverside Theatre. That is not to suggest that they are far superior animals or that the form is far superior, but merely that it was a lot easier to attach a figure to the run.

Kauto Star fully justified a rating of 190+ that day imo. Unless Riverside Theatre turns out to be something special (which he may well do, but which I would personally) Long Run wouldn't get within 10lbs of that performance.
 
This is what gets me - people make their entire assumptions of what the form consitutes based on what a trainer says! Best not analyse anything using this as a tool - just read Nicholls' and Henderson's columns in the RP for the past couple of seasons to see what an authority they are on their respective horses.
 
Hamm said:
This is what gets me - people make their entire assumptions of what the form consitutes based on what a trainer says! Best not analyse anything using this as a tool - just read Nicholls' and Henderson's columns in the RP for the past couple of seasons to see what an authority they are on their respective horses.
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You have assumed Pandorama wants testing ground based on what his trainer said?
 
trackside528 said:
The likes of Madison Du Berlais and Barber Shop had done far more to justify their ratings prior to their King George runs than Riverside Theatre. That is not to suggest that they are far superior animals or that the form is far superior, but merely that it was a lot easier to attach a figure to the run.

Kauto Star fully justified a rating of 190+ that day imo. Unless Riverside Theatre turns out to be something special (which he may well do, but which I would personally) Long Run wouldn't get within 10lbs of that performance.
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MdB was the epitome of a horse running past beaten ones.
 
Galileo said:
You have assumed Pandorama wants testing ground based on what his trainer said?
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Jockey, not trainer, who can feel how the horse is running on any particular ground. That, and from what I can see visually in terms of running style, and also his race record.
 
Hamm said:
Jockey, not trainer, who can feel how the horse is running on any particular ground. That, and from what I can see visually in terms of running style, and also his race record.
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My bad - you mentioned "connections" so assumed that included the trainer as I have never read quotes from the owners.
 
For the record I agree when it comes to going - unless the horse has a physical issue that connections know about you are best off giving them the benefit of the doubt. Remember Mikael D going to Cheltenham and simply because he has raced on soft ground his whole career it was thought that faster ground would not suit - he handled it fine.
 
Galileo said:
My bad - you mentioned "connections" so assumed that included the trainer as I have never read quotes from the owners.
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Sorry, maybe I did - I remember my idea coming from what Carberry said. I should add there are some jockeys invaluable in terms of what they can tell you (Geraghty I like here as well) and some you'd probably be better off not listening to.
 
Ardross said:
The second element that appears not to have been considered is that there are grounds for arguing that RT did not stay . He was backpedalling and a struggling Kauto had gone past him before the terrible mistake.
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I happen to think the opposite, actually. If you watch the race again you'll see that yes, Riverside Theatre looks to be back pedalling for a while but then stays on again well over the last two fences to take second.
 
Hamm said:
Ardross, why don't you analyse Kauto's last King George win in the same vein and then you will have to come to the conclusion horses behind him didn't run their race as he has done nothing since to justify that preposterous rating?
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I think PN has already explained convincingly why he won so easily that day . Nacarat went like a bat out of hell all the way round and Kauto Star was by far the best stayer in that field.

It was still a superb performance as he picked up between the second last and the last rather than just plugging on
 
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Shadow Leader said:
I happen to think the opposite, actually. If you watch the race again you'll see that yes, Riverside Theatre looks to be back pedalling for a while but then stays on again well over the last two fences to take second.
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But that is because Kauto comes to a complete halt at the second last !
 
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