King George VI Chase

EC1 said:
i'll say again..it may be hard task only if you aren't built for it..a great big horse carrying weight is less difficult than a smaller horse doing it..to award both horses the same poundage added back to their rating isn't accurate at all
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As Rory has kept saying, how do you know that for sure? Yes, it's going to be easier for a larger horse than a smaller one to carry weight but being larger doesn't nullify the weight difference and it has to be folly to write off the massive amount of weight being given away simply because Denman is a big horse. Similarly, doubts have been raised by others about my little mare's capability to carry 11st7lbs in a point to point, yet I know the mare well and I don't hold the same worries on that score; she's a little terrier, deceptively tough for her size and you just can't seem to bottom her.
 
Shadow Leader said:
As Rory has kept saying, how do you know that for sure? Yes, it's going to be easier for a larger horse than a smaller one to carry weight but being larger doesn't nullify the weight difference and it has to be folly to write off the massive amount of weight being given away simply because Denman is a big horse. Similarly, doubts have been raised by others about my little mare's capability to carry 11st7lbs in a point to point, yet I know the mare well and I don't hold the same worries on that score; she's a little terrier, deceptively tough for her size and you just can't seem to bottom her.
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the same way you know for sure that taking 26lb off will put him 26 lengths faster

i'd say its more of a sure thing that a bigger animal can carry weight easier..than whippin 26 off and expecting the 26 lengths to be pulled back

you seem to think its an automatic gimme..which puzzles me
 
Shadow Leader said:
Hang on, off levels he'd only have to be 16 lengths faster, not 26!! That's a fair bit to play around with....
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sorry - thought we were talking about the general effect of weight in regard to ratings.

in regard to beaten horses being viewed as the "best" horse in the race - yes i can buy it if the horse takes a big part in the finish...not when a horse shows no finish in him like in this instance.

its a bit like a team being 3rd in the league..but has 4 games in hand of the leader...I always favour the team in the lead..they've already got the points:)
 
I know Timeform have now changed KS's rating to 165 - what do they have Denman on still?

if its still 180ish...does anyone think Denman can beat KS by 15 lengths?
 
EC1 said:
I know Timeform have now changed KS's rating to 165 - what do they have Denman on still?

if its still 180ish...does anyone think Denman can beat KS by 15 lengths?
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Denman currently on 181 from last year's GC. Hennessy rating was 177.

That's not what the ratings suggest EC1 - they're not meant to be a prediction of future performance, for all that they are often considered just that.
 
rorydelargy said:
Denman currently on 181 from last year's GC. Hennessy rating was 177.

That's not what the ratings suggest EC1 - they're not meant to be a prediction of future performance, for all that they are often considered just that.
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but they are surely for future reference - if i use their ratings in future they will tell me that Denman is far superior to KS at the time i use them.
 
EC1 said:
but they are surely for future reference - if i use their ratings in future they will tell me that Denman is far superior to KS at the time i use them.
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It will tell you that Kauto Star could be better than his rating too. Better than fudging a rating that puts him on a v similar mark. Not their job to guess.
 
EC1 said:
I know Timeform have now changed KS's rating to 165 - what do they have Denman on still?

if its still 180ish...does anyone think Denman can beat KS by 15 lengths?
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Denman had an OR of 182 before the Hennessy and was deemed to run exactly to that mark... as I might have mentioned about half a dozen times.:rolleyes:

I wouldn't have any trouble in thinking Denman can beat Kauto Star's performance in the KG by 15 lengths, especially at Cheltenham where he has already beaten Kauto twice.
 
Grasshopper said:
To be fair, Steve - you probably also believe that Denman shites gold nuggets. :)
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I'm trying to be as honest and dispassionate as I can about this. I'm not saying he'll definitely win, but unless IC beats him I can't see who that might be. I don't think Long Run will be quite up to it and I can't have Kauto (as I couldn't last time). Punchestowns, Pandorama, Diamond Harry?... no not really... who else is there?... Pride Of Dulcote??

In a one off big race such as the Gold Cup I believe Denman is the most certain of these to run close to his best... a mark that will be very difficult if not impossible for any of these (with the possible exception of IC) to beat.
 
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The form of the KG is just very dubious . Long run beat a stablemate that prefers better ground, a horse that bled and has an infection, a horse that has had to have a wind op , a horse with a fibrillating heart and a horse that hates soft ground .
 
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Ardross said:
The form of the KG is just very dubious . Long run beat a stablemate that prefers better ground, a horse that bled and has an infection, a horse that has had to have a wind op , a horse with a fibrillating heart and a horse that hates soft ground .
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But when all's said and done Long Run clearly put in a terrific performance over and above what he has done before. Whatever way you look at it he has excelled. Riverside Theatre fans will also know that he ran the race of his life. He was primed to do just that. They were brimming with confidence about him and he was backed in from 16s to 10s on the day despite the going not being ideal for him.

Whatever way you look at it the first two have run to a high standard.
 
SteveM said:
Whatever way you look at it the first two have run to a high standard.
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Not if you look at it the way Ardross looks at it. Because if you look at it the way Ardross looks at it, you will see it that he "beat a stablemate that prefers better ground, a horse that bled and has an infection, a horse that has had to have a wind op, a horse with a fibrillating heart and a horse that hates soft ground "
 
Ardross said:
Long run beat a stablemate that prefers better ground
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Is there any formbook evidence for this? Riverside Theatre's 2 previous chase wins were also on good to soft. His best run as a noice hurdler was gained in even more testing conditions. I don't necessarily disagree with your point that the King George form isn't solid, but I think it's way off the mark to suggest Riverside Theatre was running on unsuitable ground.
 
I was persuaded to chance Riverside Theatre in a forecast with Kauto Star because he was an improver who likes the track. I think he would have preferred less holding ground, but the same goes for most, if not all, of them.
 
Ardross said:
Henderson said in the week that soft ground would not suit RT
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He said before the Fighting Fifth Binocular was fit.

Ground preference is one of the biggest red herrings in racing, particularly when based on what trainers say rather than on what actually happens during a race.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Not if you look at it the way Ardross looks at it. Because if you look at it the way Ardross looks at it, you will see it that he "beat a stablemate that prefers better ground, a horse that bled and has an infection, a horse that has had to have a wind op, a horse with a fibrillating heart and a horse that hates soft ground "
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:) you do have a point... Ardross does have another way of looking at it. I don't like that way though.
 
SteveM said:
It may not have been ideal, but he was okay on it. They also said they wouldn't take part if it was too bad for him.
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Worth reiterating that they were expecting a deluge before the race which never materialised, and talk of soft ground fears were more about not wanting a slog through a swamp.
 
rorydelargy said:
Worth reiterating that they were expecting a deluge before the race which never materialised, and talk of soft ground fears were more about not wanting a slog through a swamp.
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Yes indeed. As it turned out the going wasn't too bad for him... he's won on similar.
 
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