King George VI Chase

Yes, of course, GH.

I just meant that I would question whether he specifically has to lead.

He could tuck in behind Ahoy Senor and not harry him or he could race wider so as not to get involved in any eyeballing at an early stage. I imagine Nicholls will have mapped out several tactical plans to Frost and trust her to use the most appropriate one on the day.

And there has to be the chance that LHP will be too fast up front for any of them.
 
If the ground comes up proper soft, I wouldn't think Frodon would be making the pace, nor featuring in the finish.
He blew out last year on sft,and again at Haydock this.
One who would appreciate plenty of cut is Envoi Allen, and has every chance of turning around the form with BMG in those circumstances,imo.
20/1 currently,but I'll hang fire untll we get a better fix on the situation.
Of course, I'll be shouting home Ahoy Senor, who has a chance of reversing festival form with L'Homme Presse (BMG withdrawn owing to soft gound) around this less exacting track.
I live in hope.:D
 
Ahoy Senor? I can see it now! Him stopping like shot as they turn into the straight..I used to honestly think anything could happen with him and he had a screw lose but now I am just convinced he has gone at the game and it will be downhill from here on in.
16/1 ? I wouldn't back him at 116/1

I still think Envoi Allen will run a big race but can't see L'Homme being beaten. He gave away a lot of weight to trees last time which he did very easily and it will have set him spot on for this. Merry Xmas all.
 
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I managed to spend some time looking at the race last night. These are the thoughts I've committed to 'paper':

[TABLE="width: 422"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] L'Homme Presse
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royale Pagaille
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Frodon
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ahoy Senor
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]? nov
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bravemansgame
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Eldorado Allen
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Envoi Allen
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hitman
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]nov
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Millers Bank
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I haven’t been paying much attention to the lead up to this race and, to be honest, it isn’t looking much of a renewal. Last year’s race was unsatisfactory and this might end up not too different but I hope I’m wrong. Taking them in market order, L’Homme Pressé (2/1) is a worthy favourite but I don’t need to back him as I’m on at 10/1 for the Gold Cup. Bravemansgame (9/4) is entitled to improve a fair bit and rightly commands respect. Envoi Allen (7/1) looked okay last time but there’s nothing in his profile to suggest he has a mid-170s performance in him. I suspect he’s here to weigh up the opposition for better stablemates. Hitman (15/2) comes into the same category as stablemate Bravemansgame but he looked to me to be happy to let Riders Onthe Storm run away from him at Aintree and I’d want to see him prove he isn’t soft before backing him at this level. I’m no longer sure what to make of Royale Pagaille (16/1). I did read earlier in the year that he was thought to have improved a lot so it’s possible he might give his stablemate most to think about although I’m not sure this is his track. He didn’t jump well on his CD win. Ahoy Señor (20/1) has disappointed both times this season but is potentially a contender at his best. I took 33/1 about him for this after his seasonal debut as he’d been less than half that price and I can always forgive one bad run. Eldorado Allen (25/1) has a reasonable rating but isn’t entitled to improve as much as the second-season novices. Frodon (25/1) is also vulnerable to those types. Millers Bank (66/1) looks outclassed unless the headgear has a dramatic effect.

(I don't plan to get involved any further.)
 
Bravemansgame out to 3/1 after a deluge (Biblical according to the Racing Post). Can see him being pulled in the morning if it comes up heavy!
 
I will bow to the knowledge on here. But I have a few observations about the field, just looking at the form of the field.

Bravemansgame

Why do people think he won't want soft ground? His record in November and December since going over jumps reads 11111 and has won on soft ground at G1 level.

Lhomme Presse

Whole career has been on stiff tracks, only time on a flat track at Aintree, got well beat. Can't fancy it.

Hitman

Will it stay?

Envoi Allen

Quiet liking this. Form in November + December is 11111011. Likes flat tracks or slightly undulating, on those tracks is 6/6, 8/13 on undulating.

Ahoy Senor

Better on quicker ground? Only won left handed?

Frodon

Looks like will be challenged for the lead and surely prefers faster ground than soft?


At the prices I like ENVOI ALLEN, which means the other one I can't knock, Bravemansgame, will win at the shorter price.
 
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I'm sticking to mu guns with Envoi Allen and and L'Homme Presse to fight this out but I can't wait
to see what the bookies do to prices tomorrow.

As usual they will do everthing they can to rip off EW punters not that they haven't done already.

Why anyone would back Hitman 7/1 EW with passy Power when you can get as much as you like on with no limits, hassle
or refusals on the exchange at 10/1 and 7/4 or better for a place beats the hell out of me.

However there'sa nutty bet today where you can back and lay using the bookie V exchange where you simply can't lose.

Less profitable for me to do than UK based punters as we pay a massive 6.5% commission nowbut on 2% it's a real winner if your good at maths

Take Epatante for example 8.5 with the bookmakers 11.5 on the exchange

So easy to cancel out on the exchange market for zero profit zero loss on the win part

But for a place 2.88 with the bookie but 1.64 on 2 places market with the exchange

There is enough difference to make a guranteed good profit if she finishes 2nd

and if loses you can still make the same margin but there's abit more commision to pay as you have more lay bets

You can get away with these type of bets playing A against B for so long then they will suspend your account but there's a lot of bookies out there.
 
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Met office showing no sign of rain for boxing day, and with a g/s reading of 5.5 wouldn't be as testing as once feared?
 
Gone with Bravemansgame, this is his Cup Final and Nicholls knows it, he's never winning at the festival and has been hammered at Aintree last 2 seasons

Don't think the ground is gonna be that soft if it was i'd be dutching on Venetia's 2 horses

Gelino Bello in the Novice chase as well
 
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reet hard said:
Met office showing no sign of rain for boxing day, and with a g/s reading of 5.5 wouldn't be as testing as once feared?
Click to expand...

Ground was officially reported yesterday as "Soft, though parts of it do walk better than that".

They seemingly swerved heavy the rain yesterday, and expect to miss it again today. No official call yet, but expect them to give it Soft, G-to-S in places........which would be pretty-much an even playing-field from a Going perspective.
 
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Something tells me that Hitman holds more improvement than the others and can win a weakish race. I'm going in.
 
I just don’t get the love for Hitman myself.

There’s a chance he’ll improve for the trip, but he’s already had 11 chase starts. I think they know he’s not a G1 horse at intermediate trips, and they’re rolling the dice here, in the hope that Clan Des Obeaux lightning will strike twice.
 
The support for Ahoy Senor is interesting.

I was in his fan club especially after Aintree last season.

I have wondered has he gone backwards this season. But then he is still young enough to turn it around, so at the prices I will have a sporting each way bet on him and follow Reet. No surprise to me if L Homme Presse wins though.
 
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Either it shows what a good trainer is Gordon Elliot that he could run up a sequence with Envoi Allen or the horse really does have some high class which can appear again. Maybe today.
 
Grasshopper said:
I just don’t get the love for Hitman myself.

There’s a chance he’ll improve for the trip, but he’s already had 11 chase starts. I think they know he’s not a G1 horse at intermediate trips, and they’re rolling the dice here, in the hope that Clan Des Obeaux lightning will strike twice.
Click to expand...
Dunno, Grass. He's young enough to improve. I wrote this on the pace thread:
Hitman's another stepping up in trip, and probably ran his best race over 2.4m at Aintree, at a good pace where he looked to need further. Looks sure to make first 3,imo.
Click to expand...
and what PN reckons:
"Hitman's in great shape. I'm sure he'll get the trip, and it could bring out improvement in him. I don't think we've seen the best of him yet."
Click to expand...
 
Grasshopper said:
Ground was officially reported yesterday as "Soft, though parts of it do walk better than that".

They seemingly swerved heavy the rain yesterday, and expect to miss it again today. No official call yet, but expect them to give it Soft, G-to-S in places........which would be pretty-much an even playing-field from a Going perspective.
Click to expand...


Watching the last two races, stamina would certainly appear to be a prerequisite!
 
What a horse he is! Didn't think he was going that smoothly at times during that race, and was probably a little 'aware' of L'Homme Presse's jumping.

Not sure what you do with Envoi Allen, something definitely not right there and has been that way for some while.

Cracking horse is the winner, fair play to him.
 
Well done Bravemansgame and connections

Quite something to pull off a long term plan I think PFN was talking about the 2022 KG in early 2020

I’d hoped Down Royal was a signal that Envoi Allen would rediscover his mojo but back to square one with him


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Enjoyable race despite Eldorado Allen finishing 4th and just outside the ew money. The pundit driven narrative that BMG is a bridal merchant with nothing much under the bonnet has been dispelled and he was impressive. As a Gold Cup backer of l'Homme Presse I was pleased enough with that, he clearly wasn't totally at home at the track and ran well enough until the unseat.
 
I couldn't have got it more wrong. What a trainer Paul Nichols is he even got Frodon placed. He has now won the race an amazing 13 times.

However where does Bravemansgame go from here? 11/1 for the Gold Cup? I was quite impressed that could be a good EW bet.

Could he live with GDC? doubt that very much but I can\t see why L.Homme Presse is only 7/1 ahead of him in the market
 
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