King George Vl chase

WPM has indicated Ballyburn is “likely” to come over for the Wayward Lad according to the RP.
Cue Nervous Nicky swerving the race with Sir Gino
 
barjon said:
Maybe, If he can clamber over the fences without losing too much, tan
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Imperial commander was fav and hit one early back in the day and never got into the race after that. Kempton fences are among the stiffest on the country and you can't clamber over them..but horses just need to go through the top of one and they soon get the message..he has had some trouble free rounds so I'll take my chances
 
Don't see a thread for this and not sure it's worth a thread of its own anyway but this race on Boxing Day hasn't had a mention so far but it does look a very interesting contest for a very nice pot:

1:05 Aintree | Standard Racecard | 26 December 2024 | Racing Post

William Hill Formby Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race), 26th December 2024. 1:05 at Aintree, standard racecard from Racing Post.
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com
 
I'm looking forward to the Novices Chase at Kempton.

White Rhino may just out run the odds. If he handles Kempton that is.

I think we need a Boxing Day thread.
 
The Wayward Lad is an interesting match
like Lossiemouth Ballyburn has been beating trees...Sir Gino gets the age allowance is all class and my money is on him
 
It's a bit of a glorified handicap this year if ORs are anything to go by with a bunch of them rated within 3lbs of each other and the top only on 167.

It will probably be an exciting enough race and I'll be happy for it to be run on good ground as I don't think good-ground horses are well enough catered for,

I did take big odds about GEC for this before the Hennessy just in case but I'll be very surprised if he's good enough for a top six finish.

If they all ran to the very bet of their ability I reckon Bravemansgame would win easily.
 
Truncheon said:
Looking like good ground

The French horse wins
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Looking at him win the Kauto Star last Christmas was just awesome. He jumped so well; brilliantly. Yes, he made a mistake but showed straight after at the next fence that he'd learned the lesson and jumped it superbly.

He's a young horse, who's had just six chases in his career.

Of course, the worry will centre around the two no-shows of late. However, I'll believe that Noel George wouldn't send him to the race unless he was certain the horse was up and ready. Given that IEF is a year on from last year's win (recorded in a proper time indeed to prove his staying credentials) I would expect to see natural improvement for one that was still growing into himself at that stage.

I never forget it when I've been taken with a horse's performance and last year's win was the most I was impressed by any chaser last season. Win or lose, there's only one horse I'll be backing.
 
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If you look at the runners in the King George VI and which races they ran in since the last King George VI, then note how they subsequently performed.
Then doing that year by year, since the start of the century, and aggregating the data you then get the following view of which races act as trials for the King George in terms of hard numbers and no anecdotal musings.


For example, out of this year’s runners only Spillane’s Tower ran in the last Punchestown John Durkan Memorial Chase Stakes and it was 2nd (see last column). Since the start of the century 10 horses have run in the John Durkan and gone on to run in the following King George VI, of those 3 have won (30% strike) and 2 have placed (ew strike of 50%). Out of those 10 runners, 3 of them were winners of the John Durkan and 2 won (66.7% strike).

Obviously this is just one angle to consider, whether the conditions and whatever else suit the individual runners in this year's King George are to be considered to form a view.
 

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