Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (Kempton)

I basically can't have Iroko beat in this, not because of what I've seen from him over fences, but because of what I think is potentially still to come, partly based on his hurdles form.

But I wouldn't rule Heltenham out of this either.

They could have aimed Flegmatic at this, his claims would have been strong, as well documented by others, yet they have left in Heltenham instead.

Heltenham's now back down to 136, his last winning mark, he's by Masked Marvel, a Jumps sire I like, and he's totally unexposed at 3m.

"Totally unexposed" could instead be labelled "totally unproven," of course 😂 - BUT, there's just a chance this could be yet another big Saturday handicap project from a yard renowned for them.

I regard Iroko as the most likely winner, but I wouldn't put anyone off Heltenham if he's declared on Thursday.
 
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Iroko was a non jigger last time out. Now the national weights are out I'd expect to see him put his best foot forward and probably be a short price fav for the National after this. I haven't looked through the rest of the field but this feel like one of those where you don't have to.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I basically can't have Iroko beat in this, not because of what I've seen from him over fences, but because of what I think is potentially still to come, partly based on his hurdles form.

But I wouldn't rule Heltenham out of this either.

They could have aimed Flegmatic at this, his claims would have been strong, as well documented by others, yet they have left in Heltenham instead.

Heltenham's now back down to 136, his last winning mark, he's by Masked Marvel, a Jumps sire I like, and he's totally unexposed at 3m.

"Totally unexposed" could instead be labelled "totally unproven," of course 😂 - BUT, there's just a chance this could be yet another big Saturday handicap project from a yard renowned for them.

I regard Iroko as the most likely winner, but I wouldn't put anyone off Heltenham if he's declared on Thursday.
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Iroko and Heltenham are both in my alerts Ian.
 
I've never seen any of his previous Robi only seen his last run. Tbf you've made a good case for that one of yours (as I've noticed you do with all your selections). I might try and have a proper look at the race this week some point as its a race I have fond memories of.
 
Robicheaux said:
He's never won going right handed + it's fair to say, he's promised more than he's delivered. I'll be taking him on.
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Tbf he’s only run right handed twice. Once at Kempton in the Adonis (a bit early in his career to be judging IMO) and when brought down (although given as a fall in the formbook). He’s a skinny enough price for one who’s been a little disappointing really after I thought he’d be a very smart chaser after his debut. But it was an extremely unfortunate injury that meant he missed most of his novice season, only running at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals (stood on a nail I think)
 
Iroko on the slide out to 6/1 after it was revealed he is far from certain to run.

Sporting Life: "Co-trainer Josh Guerriero has warned Iroko is far from certain to run in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton on Saturday.

The seven-year-old was expected to complete his Grand National preparations at the weekend but with little rain forecast, connections have worries over the going.

“He’s very well, we’re ready to rock and roll but the only reservation is the ground is drying up pretty quickly there and it’s good to soft, good in places,” Guerriero said.

“Unfortunately, we’re not a definite runner and might have to go to Kelso the week after for the Listed chase there as there’s some rain about. It’s very annoying, we’d love to run at Kempton but with the ground the way it is it probably isn’t ideal.

“We need rain. If it was good to soft we’d probably give it a go but any quicker than that we’ll have to look after him. He’s a big horse, a real galloper and he needs some soft ground really.”

Connections are confident that there’s more to come from Iroko as his stamina is stretched out further.

“We’ve always felt that. His run at Aintree over three miles he was doing his best work at the end, the other day at Cheltenham was a great run, we were keeping him sharp and he ran very well, he had 12 stone on his back and he’s learning plenty.

“We’re just trying to get some good experience of fast-run handicaps into him. He hasn’t had much of that over fences, and I was very happy with the run and he finished very well.”

Guerriero is also confident that their stable star has many of the qualities required to shine at Aintree in April.

“He’s so sure-footed with his jumping, he’s been unbelievable from day one. He's very, very, accurate, he has a great mind, he’s very relaxed and races very relaxed and stays very, very well. When he won the Martin Pipe he looked beat coming down the hill then his stamina has come into play and he stayed on up the hill,” he added.

“He stays very well, jumps very well and has a very good mind.”
 
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Robicheaux said:
I maybe interested in Golden Son, if he lines up. Beat Heltenhen at this meeting last year + is a few lbs better off. Iroko beat him an easy 3 lengths as novices, but there's an 18lb pull now. 20s bet365, but I'll hold off till Thursday.
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9/1. Bit skinny. I may back it on the day, like I did with Famous Bridge, last Saturday, when I missed 20s on that.
 
viking said:
I’m liking the look of Charlie Uberalles at 16/1. His defeat of DocPickedme at Doncaster before Xmas looks like decent form given what that one did in the Great Yorkshire Chase
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Hands up, I thought that race fell into CU's hands at the time but the subsequent form of DPM has made me go back and give my figures a hike.

(It might still be that CU seems to take to Doncaster better than elsewhere but not sure why. It doesn't seem that different from other relatively flat LH tracks. Is it that the ground is usually faster there? I remember Mr Frisk fairly zipping along there back in the day.
 
Clear to me that Skelton has been jobbing Heltenham

Question is, is it for this or something at Cheltenham?

Edit

I just looked and he isn't in anything at Cheltenham

This is it then;)
 
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Ian_Davies said:
I wouldn't rule Heltenham out of this either.

They could have aimed Flegmatic at this, his claims would have been strong, as well documented by others, yet they have left in Heltenham instead.

Heltenham's now back down to 136, his last winning mark, he's by Masked Marvel, a Jumps sire I like, and he's totally unexposed at 3m.

"Totally unexposed" could instead be labelled "totally unproven," of course 😂 - BUT, there's just a chance this could be yet another big Saturday handicap project from a yard renowned for them.
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Heltenham smashed - 10/1 best now.
 
It's not beyond Skelton to organise a gamble on one of his only to run it down the park ahead of another target. I'll probably need some sickness insurance on it but I suspect 3m might not suit and there's a big race at Newbury over 2m4f coming up soon. That would be my idea of the aim.
 
Skelton has said for ages that Heltenham needs 3 mile but why people think he's laid it out for this race is beyond me the horse has ran like crap this season even at his beloved Newbury. Not saying he couldn't bounce back to form and run a big race but if he ran badly I wouldn't be presuming that he's being laid out for future targets if he dropped any lower he wouldn't get into a decent race. Sometimes horses are out of form and believe it or not even Skelton horses get older (albeit 8 isn't that old) and deteriorate not everything is a job.

I've had a bit of a look at the race and nothing really stands out if I think the Nicholls second string looks a bit of value and I think Deeper Blue is very interesting has bits and bobs of some real decent form has gone well enough fresh in the past and is tried in a first time tongue tie on his first run from Pipe. The fact he's put him into a big valuable handicap first time up suggests that he's not just looking to get a run into him.
 
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