Leopardstown Christmas

Identity thief a massively overrated horse imo. And there are plenty of form lines to back this up. Henry's other horse, Three stars, ties the UK & Irish form lines together nicely. Attribution, Le Prezien, top notch, Charbel all the way through to Altior really. IT was 9L behind top notch when it mattered at festival last year. Now novice chasing, and while IT jumped nicely on debut, next time out in the fog he only beat attribution 4L , who in turn, subsequently only beat Three stars by 1L. That's 5L - Le Prezien beat Three stars by 14L. And LP has been beaten by Charbel, who in turn ate Altiors dust.... If Min is half the horse he is supposed to be, then I believe he has way too much for the thief. If not, then 7/4 Altior for the Arkle could be an unbelievable price!!!

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You can get lost/tunnel vision in taking form lines in such a strict manner - do you think IT was all out to beat Attribution in the fog or had Henry had him anywhere near fully wound up? He probably under performed but won with ease

He was 158 over hurdles and will almost certainly be a better chaser, based on looks, trainer and breeding

If he only found 5lbs improvement, am sure he will find more, it will take a good horse to beat him
 
Those form lines are very misleading DH in that Firstly IT was running in extremely dense fog which naturally jumping fences is a huge disadvantage and secondly he was eased right down by Cooper on the run in once he put the race to bed in the race with Attribution. Then you must factor in ground conditions, track etc too.

I would be definitely in the Identity Thief camp also and I'd have Min as the over hyped horse here. Min, to me anyway, seemed to do something funny with his back end at many of the fences on debut. He didn't look a complete natural. No doubt he has an engine but so has IT who'll be well able to keep tabs on him and he's looked the better jumper so far.


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Min doesn't appear to have an Irish handicap mark, presumably because he's only raced twice over hurdles there.

Going by UK marks, he was 5lbs behind Identity Thief (154 versus 159) over hurdles, but those marks were achieved in 5 starts (Min) and 9 starts (IT) respectively. I've no reason to believe that Min would not at least have equalled IT's mark of 159, had he been kept over smaller obstacles.

That said, IT hasn't put a foot wrong over fences yet, and he would be the logical bet, at the odds posted by Granger earlier. If it was 10/11 the pair though? I'd side with Min.
 
Both fair responses granger and Kauto, and I take your point regarding the strict reading of those form lines. To maybe go back a step, I just don't like Identify Thief and I am of the opinion he is massively overrated. Instead of saying it that bluntly above, I was adding substance of form lines to my opinion. I think his hurdle rating of 159 was generous, I think the form of his fighting fifth win was very average, at best. I was dead against him in CH last year and laid him in place markets. And while I agree he jumped nicely on debut, I just do not think he is as fast as many seem to think. I won't get involved financially at Christmas because I agree Min still has questions to answer. Hence why above I said if Min is as good as he is supposed to be.... However, come the Arkle, on current evidence and at this stage, I'll be happy to take Identity Thief on. if he proves me wrong, then so be it.
 
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I think Min is far from a a dog - he has a hell of a lot of scope but he has never come across as being thought about as highly as those who came before him and he might even be the 2nd best 2 miler in the yard

IT may have burnt a few fingers at Cheltenham last year but I am not one to hold grudges, bar a few outlined below

(Stephen Curran ruining flemenstar, GIGI butchering Road to Ritches, any bast*rd showing gross ignorance to Hurricane Fly, the flat)

In time, i think both IT and Min will need 2m+ trips for what its worth - I have IT backed at big prices for decent returns so maybe i'm a tad blinkered on him but liked him since his bumper win and think 7/4 is a great price
 
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Grasshopper said:
That said, IT hasn't put a foot wrong over fences yet, and he would be the logical bet, at the odds posted by Granger earlier. If it was 10/11 the pair though? I'd side with Min.
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I would be in the Min camp too.

Altior won't lose much sleep mind.
 
I never thought for a minute Identity Thief was a Champion Hurdle horse but he was certainly good enough to be running in one.

However he could not have been more impressive over fences first time up and the way everything else was closing rapidly at the finish of his latest win it looked like Cooper was playing a game of cat and mouse with his stable companion and could have gone past a lot sooner if he had wanted to

As for Min it was hard not be be impressed when he won over hurdles but when it came to the crunch Altior stuffed him good and proper and the 3rd would have been as well staying in his box.

Min is above average but I will be surprised if he can handle a good horse like Identity Thief who looks a natural at the game.

Min is big and shiny but IT is a proper race horse
 
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I'd say at this stage you wouldn't expect there to be too much between them. Min is the more unexposed of the two and may improve past Identity Thief, but Identity Thief's jumping has been more impressive than Min's sole outing. Based on that alone I'd side with Identity Thief right now, on the basis that if there isn't much between them coming to the last you'd take him to carry more momentum.

The truth is I'm not invested in either in any way, and probably won't over Christmas. I will watch with interest though for future reference.
 
Maruco said:
I'd say at this stage you wouldn't expect there to be too much between them. Min is the more unexposed of the two and may improve past Identity Thief, but Identity Thief's jumping has been more impressive than Min's sole outing. Based on that alone I'd side with Identity Thief right now, on the basis that if there isn't much between them coming to the last you'd take him to carry more momentum.

The truth is I'm not invested in either in any way, and probably won't over Christmas. I will watch with interest though for future reference.
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I'm in the same camp. I like both horses....but I've not been sitting waiting for either to come again....hopefully they will change my view with this race.
 
I hope IT edges this as it will make Min a decent price in March where I'd have him to reverse the form every day of the week.


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Great racing for the four days.
i shall be present with Grey , Paddy and crew Tues to Thursday.
Anyone racing see us at end of paddock where horses exit.
Good honest wholesome food with a racing crowd in Madigan's morehampton Road after racing
A great way to end the year; looking forward to meeting all and sundry there.
 
Sizing John will have his first run for the yard at Christmas

Jessica Harrington hopes to be busy over the festive period and with plenty of interest in the Grade One events at Leopardstown, led by Sunni May.

The five-year-old is unbeaten in two starts since going over obstacles and is set to put his credentials on the line in the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle on Tuesday.

Harrington said: "Sunni May will go for the Grade One at Leopardstown. He won well at Punchestown and may be better going left-handed."

Stablemate Our Duke made the ideal start to life over fences at Navan earlier this month and is in line for an appearance at Leopardstown on the 29th.

Harrington said: "Our Duke will go for the three-mile Neville Hotels Novice Chase over Christmas."

She added: "Sizing John is in good form and will take on Douvan again in the two-mile Grade One (Paddy Power Cashcard Chase) at Leopardstown.

"I'm planning to start Supasundae off over two and a half miles at Punchestown on New Year's Eve. We'll start him off over two and a half miles and see how we go from there.

"Forge Meadow will probably go for a mares' race at Fairyhouse. She was badly hampered in the Royal Bond, and I think she definitely would have finished at least third only for that."


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Interesting the big money Henderson/JP horse Kotikova currently only has two entries, both over 3 miles in the Christmas Hurdle & Lexus. I assume the plans is to run over there?
 
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