Lockinge Stakes

A

Ardross

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 8, 2007
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Although it will be interesting to see what Lord Shanakill can do in HRAC's care and how Zacinto has come on from 3 to 4 - surely this race is Paco Boy's for the taking .
 
Paco Boy. I have a love hate relationship. I'm standing by my opinion that he won't win a 8f G1 against top class opposition. Whether he'll face that in the Lockinge is another matter.
 
At 3/1 there won't be much damage done by backing Zaccinto e/w, can't find 3 that will finish in front of him.
 
Zacinto , has been working with Kingsgate Native, and only 2lbs behind Paco Boy on Official Ratings. Should be interesting. Paco Boy has the better turn of foot and Zacinto can pull hard if there is no pace in the race.
 
Ardross said:
Although it will be interesting to see what Lord Shanakill can do in HRAC's care and how Zacinto has come on from 3 to 4 - surely this race is Paco Boy's for the taking .
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Paco Boy was very pleasing on his reappearance and obviously sets a very good standard here, in perhaps the form of his life. However, there is nothing between him and Zacinto at their best and I wouldn't be at all surprised if either one were to beat the other. At respective prices I'd probably go with Zacinto, but as I want then both to win for my Ten To Follow, I'll probably leave it.
 
Paco Boy should be favorite but I want to see if Cecil is able to improve Lord Shanakil.
It does not look a strong edition.
 
Paco as short as 8/11 now, but as big as 5/6 in places. Ladbrokes go 4/1 Zacinto, plenty of 7/2 about also.
 
I agree that it doesn't look a great race and if Zacinto's run behind RVW can be taken at face value then Paco Boy should never be odds-on to beat him.
 
I think it will be really disappointing if Paco Boy cannot win this. Zacinto was flattered to get so close to Rip last season at Ascot in a strange race to watch and a performance from Rip that probably suggested he had just about enough of it at the end of a long season.

Interesting one for me is Pipedreamer - absolutely mental that this horse is only now stepping back to this sort of trip. Gosden was simply too stubborn to drop him back in trip after appearing not to get home time after time over 10 furlongs against the very best. Obviously the change of stable and another year behind him is a worry but 16/1 in places is a fair price in an open race.
 
Galileo said:
Zacinto was flattered to get so close to Rip last season at Ascot in a strange race to watch and a performance from Rip that probably suggested he had just about enough of it at the end of a long season.
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According to Rip's essay in Racehorses it took longer for him to run the last three furlongs of that race than it took the winners of the three other races on the Round course that day. I don't think Zacinto is any better than Lord Shanakill or Pipedreamer and as the latter goes well fresh he appeals for a place at around 5/2 or 11/4. Can't see Paco Boy not winning this though.
 
Euronymous said:
According to Rip's essay in Racehorses it took longer for him to run the last three furlongs of that race than it took the winners of the three other races on the Round course that day.
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I think it could be dangerous to take that kind of information in isolation. Maybe RVW ran the first five furlongs of that race at a ridiculously fast pace. Without other information to put the original assertion into context it's all pretty meaningless.

My stance is that, at its best, Paco Boy is a very solid 126/127 horse, which should be good enough to win this but he was good enough before and didn't. Zacinto is relatively dark and is with a master at bringing them on. If that run against RVW can (and I accept it might be dangerous to do so) be taken at face value, he's almost the same level as Paco Boy.

On the other hand, I've long thought most 126+ horses tend to struggle to hit that level first time out, which would compromise Zacinto's chances while Paco Boy has had a run.

There's nothing to say you must have a bet in this race. I certainly wouldn't be interested in the fav at odds-on. Would I back Zacinto to beat it? Not first time out. I'd rather just watch the race.
 
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What we are now seeing from Paco Boy is a horse at the height of his powers. Any horse in this sort of form, whatever they have achieved in the past will prove extraordinarily difficult to beat. If he doesn’t win he must surely be placed.
However Zacinto screams class. He probably needs a fast pace to prove it (which he got at Ascot). He wasn’t flattered at all at Ascot (where he had Delegator and Aqlaam behind him), but simply showing us what he is capable of. Probably more to come too. He may rule the roost this season of the older milers.
At the odds it has to be Zacinto, although it also won’t be a great surprise if Paco Boy wins (with a run already under his belt).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I think it could be dangerous to take that kind of information in isolation. Maybe RVW ran the first five furlongs of that race at a ridiculously fast pace. Without other information to put the original assertion into context it's all pretty meaningless.
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I think that is the point the essay is making. Rip Van Winkle and Aqlaam took each other on and went too fast early on, hence why he was finishing slower than the other races over course and distance that day that were run at a more even tempo. If Rip Van Winkle and Aqlaam went too fast, then there is a strong chance Zacinto was at an advantage by being held up off that overly-strong pace. Timeform didn't take the QEII result literally, having Rip Van Winkle 5 lb below his best. Zacinto's figure of 126 is some 9 lb higher than he recorded in the Celebration Mile whereas Paco Boy has 5 125+ performances already in the bag.
 
davidjohnson said:
I think that is the point the essay is making. Rip Van Winkle and Aqlaam took each other on and went too fast early on, hence why he was finishing slower than the other races over course and distance that day that were run at a more even tempo. If Rip Van Winkle and Aqlaam went too fast, then there is a strong chance Zacinto was at an advantage by being held up off that overly-strong pace. Timeform didn't take the QEII result literally, having Rip Van Winkle 5 lb below his best. Zacinto's figure of 126 is some 9 lb higher than he recorded in the Celebration Mile whereas Paco Boy has 5 125+ performances already in the bag.
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Zacinto was pace favoured for sure in that race..first two were coming back to him..possibly flattered

Cecil is 4 wins from last 9..think Lord Shanakil win bet + place to cover + a bit:)
 
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That was very smart indeed....

Thought hughes had lost it there for a moment but this is one special horse....probably improving too
 
Brilliant from Paco Boy. Won like on odds-on chance should. Surely his best performance to date.

Worried about Zacinto though. Hope he finds a way back from this.
 
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