Main Festival Hope

Montbazon and Medermit would make it very profitable for me. I've got good positions on Big Bucks, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Sprinter Sacre, and Long Run too but can't see them all winning.

Got to make up some ground after Captain Chris (I nearly always back the Arkle winner for the following year's QM)/Spirit Son/Fingal Bay disasters :(
 
I cant believe it, it seems as if 90% of you lot are favourite backing none thinkers, come on put some effort in at least. 1/2 to 3/4 of these so called good things will go down no doubt.

Im going for value, here they are.

MENORAH and KID CASSIDY in the ARKLE

BOBS WORTH in the RSA

KAUTO STONE ew CHAMPION CHASE

MONTBAZON NOVICE HURDLE

SIZING AUSTRALIA in the CROSS COUNTRY

you will be there till the cows come home backing these favourites unless you get a treble or fourfold up.

Anyway good luck everyone, each to there own method:)
 
I've a few horses on my radar but my main hope is that Time For Rupert does run in the Speciality Chase as I honestly think he is about 7 pound well in (especially on a line through The Giant Bolster who is now a 160+ plus horse), but he's drifted badly on the machine which suggests to me something might be amiss again with him.
 
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Couldn't have Bobs Worth with counterfeit but I can see the argument. I have backed Kauto Stone EW at 33s for the Champion Chase. Think he can run a place behind Sizing Europe who is my banker of the meeting.

My main Festival hope is Simonsig for the Neptune. I have had my maximum antepost bet on him for the Neptune at 14/1. This gives me room to cover on Boston Bob should he run.

Peddlers Cross would go down nicely but it appears I am more optimistic than the trainer! :lol:
 
handsofstone said:
I cant believe it, it seems as if 90% of you lot are favourite backing none thinkers, come on put some effort in at least. 1/2 to 3/4 of these so called good things will go down no doubt.

Im going for value, here they are.

MENORAH and KID CASSIDY in the ARKLE

BOBS WORTH in the RSA

KAUTO STONE ew CHAMPION CHASE

MONTBAZON NOVICE HURDLE

SIZING AUSTRALIA in the CROSS COUNTRY

you will be there till the cows come home backing these favourites unless you get a treble or fourfold up.

Anyway good luck everyone, each to there own method:)
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If you look back you'll see that most of the "favourite backing none thinkers" are on at far bigger prices than said horses will return and most weren't favourites when they were backed by Forum members.

Welcome Aboard the Talking Horses Ship btw :)

Martin
 
clivex said:
Not had a bet either. Why is that luke? Is it because that in reality the ante post markets dont really offer the value that some assume and that its simply best to wait til the fog clears about running plans, stable form etc?

Ive had some fair ante posts over the years but so often the price isnt much different on the day. And weve all had the non runners of course

Then again i probably dont do more than 10-15 bets all festival anyway
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I remember my first ante post bet -a pound double See You Then and Dawn Run.Ante post betting always had an aura about it and the thrills associated were unbelieveable.In 1992 I backed Cherrykino at 100/1 for the Gold Cup and on the day I stood to win the price of a modest house if he won(unfortunately he was killed early in the race).
In recent years the bookies seem reluctant to offer really big prices and seem to be very enthusiastic about cutting prices.This combined with the fact that the day of race markets for the big meetings are electric means ante post betting is a thing of the past for me.
 
I've already lost 3 AP bets however the remaining horses are all priced substantially below those I have taken.
Al Ferof (average approx 10/1)would be a decent winner for me and as smart as SS has looked I haven't given up hope. Another Al, Weird Al (around 27/1) would show a similar profit, has a chance and would make a worthwhile contribution if he just placed.

Surprisingly perhaps, my biggest winner would be a horse beaten on his last 2 appearances at Cheltenham, Hollow Tree (roughly 29/1), in the Triumph. He was only beaten 3.5l when 3rd to Grumeti, the current favourite, giving 3lbs in a slowly run race. I feel that he will benefit from the fast pace that is highly likely in the Triumph and will stay up the hill when others start slowing down to a greater extent.

Given the original prices, were the above all to win, the added impact of some low cost multiples, which I always do for the Festival on the basis that if I fancy several horses -why not, would be a return in 6 figures.

I probably have too much on Champagne Fever (20/1) for the Bumper and will most likely trade some out even though due diligence encourages me.My remaining AP position is Moon Dice (mainly 12/1) for the County.
 
I have quite a large bet on Sprinter Sacre, but will cover with Paddy Power with Al Ferof and Cue Card - each way 1/4 odds first 3 ensuring you have outstanding value on the place side, and if Peddlers Cross doesn't turn up, you will make decent money if any of the first three win, and quite a lot should Sprinter Sacre win and the 2 others place.

Finian's Rainbow is reported to have turned the corner by Geraghty (the only jockey worth listening to, imho), and as he was value at 5s previously, I'm starting to get a little excited.

Binocular is one of the bets of the festival at 5s e/w, and I think he'd still be value at 3s.

An each way double with the latter two.
 
If he's value at 3's then surely at 11/4 W/O Hurrican Fly is a mortgage job???

Not saying I agree, but it would be a more sensible bet.
 
Hamm? If Barry Geraghty is worth listening to - and given his knowledge of the Henderson yard - what do you say about his assertion that Hurricane Fly is a bombproof winner of the Champion?
 
granger said:
You are considering this?
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No, I'm teasing. I do think there's actually a decent chance he will bomb out. I fancy Binocular quite strongly, but if Hurricane fly runs his race he should be second as there's little else in behind.
 
Bobbyjo said:
Hamm? If Barry Geraghty is worth listening to - and given his knowledge of the Henderson yard - what do you say about his assertion that Hurricane Fly is a bombproof winner of the Champion?
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He's very much entitled to his opinion, and he isn't far off. I think he deserves to be favourite, of course, but I myself fancy Binocular after the last day at the prices (an each way bet to nothing). Hurricane Fly does have the best chance of winning, as he has put up a higher level of performance more often than Binocular has, but on their respective best performances, there is little in it, and with the prices, you'd have to side with Binocular.

To make it clear - I don't in any way disagree that Hurricane Fly is a top, top horse, but for me this is a price-related opinion.
 
Bobbyjo said:
Hamm? If Barry Geraghty is worth listening to - and given his knowledge of the Henderson yard - what do you say about his assertion that Hurricane Fly is a bombproof winner of the Champion?
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When you start listening to what jockeys think, even assuming you believe them to be telling the truth, it's time to give up punting.
 
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