Master Minded

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
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Jan 24, 2008
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Looking at today's race, I think there are serious grounds for laying master minded at 1/3;
- namely the trip, which should be exacerbated by a strong pace from Tamarinbleu
- the closeness in terms of time between Cheltenham & Aintree this year (even though this applies to all horses, some don't handle it as well as others)
- the ground is probably a shade quicker than it was at Cheltenham.
- returning to the trip - can a horse who went so quick last home over an extra half a mile, bearing in mind that this extra distance should suit both his nearest challengers?

Any thoughts? I agree his Cheltenham performance was incredible, but that's not to say he can't be opposed today at the price.
 
I wouldn't see 2 and a half being a problem at all at Aintree, quite the reverse. I can't see the ground as an issue either.

It had to have taken one hell of an effort for a five year old to put in that level of performance, that would be the only reason for opposing him IMO. Paul Nicholls has been known to get them ready for one peak performance. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world if he only put in a run equivelent to what he did at Newbury, which still gives him a fair shot at winning.

1/3 looks fair enough to me - I don't back at those prices, and even if I did I wouldn't see value in it, looks just about a fair reflection of his chances.
 
I would imagine they will be keener than ever to get Tamerinbleu in front straight away after his sulking effort at Cheltenham last time. This is his trip and the going should suit so he might have a chance if the favourite does not run to form. If he does run to form its as good as over already.
 
Wasnt the key to Tamarinbleu his freshness. Even after the effort at Chelt, I dont think he will be back to his best.

But as said, if all run to their best, MM wins.
 
Went to the bank this morning and have spread a few quid around on VPU at 5s.He certainly has a chance of winning.Cant have Tamarinbleu -could see Newmill running a big race.
 
Stopped very quickly but I thought Voy Por travelled far better today than at Cheltenham. Interesting to see if the King George is in line for VPU next year.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 4 2008, 03:28 PM
Stopped very quickly but I thought Voy Por travelled far better today than at Cheltenham. Interesting to see if the King George is in line for VPU next year.
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There would have been little between them if today was a 2 mile race.
 
Just looking at it again, the ground looked significantly quicker today than it did in the Queen Mother. Might have had alot of barely on both results.
 
My first reaction was that MM hurt himself when he did a Kauto at the final ditch (maybe KS did too). Richard Pitman has opined that MM probably winded himself the way he landed. I could buy that.

Also some fascinating insight from AP. He was apparently saying during the race he felt Ruby wasn't happy on MM throughout and was keeping close tabs on the leaders because he didn't think he could pick them up from the rear.
 
He stopped very quickly after he ploughed that fence. :suspect:



* Got in to late. Seriously looked to me as if the jump took it out of him in a very similar fashion to Kauto yesterday. Two shockers in two days for Ruby.
 
It looked like a combination of everything Andrew Hurley wrote on the initial post on this thread - well done that man.
 
I cant remember the last time I went to the bank for a horse-possibly Nashwan in the Derby when I was a student trying to pay for a big night out at the end of exams.Its harder to put cash over the counter as opposed to pressing buttons on the machine but the reverse is its nice to see notes being counted out.
Great ride by Choc.
 
Be interesting to see what time based going is ( officially Good) , but for those interested in such things - VPE has recorded best time of last Ten Years in race today



Probably explains why Andrews suspect stayer Master Minded and pacesetter Tamarinbleu were stuffed out of sight today
 
Good call those men! My only bet in the race was a Place on Tamarinbleu but I think the ground is much faster than yesterday and he wasn't good enough anyway for a back-to-his-best VPU

The King horses are flying right now and I'm more than ever convinced there was a bug in the yard [or parts of it at least] earlier in the season. Great to see this horse come really good again; tho MM didn't look the same horse to me.

Maybe the sticky ground at Cheltenham took an awful lot out of the winners? - form is carrying through even less than other years

I don't think Ruby is to blame for either KS yesterday or MM today ploughing through the fences - both horses were at the end of their tether at the time, and it can be better to leave them be in those circumstances
 
Cheers all. Strange race and one that maybe needs some thinking before deciding what to make of it. I did feel that Master Minded wasn't travelling as well from very early on.

Voy Por Ustedes ran very well and very much appreciated the step up. Wonder will he be aimed at the Ryanair now next year, especially considering there doesn't seem to be a plethora of 2m5 specialists around, and with Our Vic turning 11?

Well done Luke on VPU.
 
Master Minded had already shown that he didn't stay 2 1/2 miles, it was a question of whether his class would get him through.

There's nothing in his pedigree to suggest he'd be suited by the trip. His sire, Nikos, was best at 7 to 8f. His half-brother Hautclan is by a stallion bred to stay almost any distance.
 
Yes, great calls form Andrew and Luke. Do I recall Paul Nicholls saying straight after Cheltenham that MM is so fast he would stay at 2m for forseeable future (and why not aim for 3 or 4 Champion chases and a string of Tingle Creeks) but I suppose he's not the first to succumb to the lure of the Melling Chase.

MM was tried over today's trip last summer, indeed Ruby held him up in the Ferdinand Dufaure at Auteuil but was outpaced by Remember Rose whereas VPU was today going 2 fur further than any previous effort.

Consensus seems to be that VPU was back to his best today. I go back to my point on another thread yesterday about all these horse being rated so highly. The handicapper obviously thought VPU ran to his best at Cheltenham because he then put MM on 186 thinking that VPU had run to 168. So where will they be after today? It will be interesting to see how the top 10 chasers of the season are rated come the end of the season.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Apr 4 2008, 05:48 PM
The King horses are flying right now and I'm more than ever convinced there was a bug in the yard [or parts of it at least] earlier in the season. Great to see this horse come really good again; tho MM didn't look the same horse to me.

Maybe the sticky ground at Cheltenham took an awful lot out of the winners? - form is carrying through even less than other years

I don't think Ruby is to blame for either KS yesterday or MM today ploughing through the fences - both horses were at the end of their tether at the time, and it can be better to leave them be in those circumstances
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This would be the virus that was used selectively during the months of December and January to explain away a few poor performances even though December was very productive for King, and the two months combined gave him 44 winners at a strike rate of 20% for a LSP of 55.91 :what: If King ever finds this virus, can I suggest he bottles it, patents it, and sells it to a few other trainers who could only dream of such chronic under performance.

The explanation for VPU is pretty straight forward imo. I'm sure I must be on record on this forum somewhere, (I certainly am elsewhere) as suggesting that King has had his 2 milers the wrong way round all season. MWDS should have been his 2 miler, and VPU his 2 and half miler.

In the World Hurdle we saw MWDS travel well until he hit that 19.75F to 21F area where he goes out like a light under a strong gallop. In the Champion Chase we saw VPU taken off his feet (but in fairness I can't think of any horse in training who wouldn't have been). But when he's stepped up, he wins. At least my hypothesis is increasingly capable of being supported by factual evidence as things have unfolded, rather than speculation which had little grounding in facts then, and none more now.

As regards Ruby not being at fault;

I thought both Nicholls's and Walsh's revisions of yesterdays events with 24 hours to consider it were most illuminating. Walsh conceeded that it was the jump at the second last that cost Kauto the race, not the tactics, though obviously stopped short of blaming himself, other than to say that it's his job to deliver the horse. Nicholls basically said the horse didn't jump well enough, (though stopped short of saying that the jockey let him go from too far back). If the horses were at the end of their tethers (something I doubt given that both had just hit the front and were starting to assert). Then surely the jockey, if he were going to do anything, should get in closer and at least ensure a safe passage, with a slow jump?. By standing so far off the fence and asking for a big one which is going to require even more energy, makes it even more of Ruby's fault (if the horses were emptying).

Your explanations might hold some water Headstrong, but I think there are increasingly more convincing ones.
 
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