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Melbourne Cup

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
12,108
Location
Bangkok Thailand
Am I alone in thinking Vauban 2/1 is a shockingly bad price for this?

It is one very tough race to win and more often than not the Aussies have one or two that's been trained for this and this only.

On the negative side Vauban has never run over 2 miles.

I don't believe it was WPM to send the horse for this. I recall Rich Ricci saying he wanted the horse to run because he's always wanted to win the race.

2 mile flat horses rarely make Triumph Hurdle winners or high class 2 mile hurdlers like he has. Most are 1m2f to 1m6f winners

Maybe he would stay further over hurdles and WPM has kept him at 2 miles to pick up good prize money.

If they try and make all and there is the least little glitch in his armour I could see them running him down. on this course which is ideal for those coming from behind.


Good news for Vauban and Gold Trip is they have the best draw in stalls 3 and 2...Absurde is not too bad from stall 8 but Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight has drawn from barrier 16
 
Vauban's two Flat wins this season were at 14f and 12f respectively so I son't think the trip will be an issue.

Is he well enough handicapped? That's harder to say. He won at Ascot off 101 but probably needed to in order to get high enough up to make the cut in Australia but he went up to 114. He's 160 over hurdles, which on my figures equates to about 118 on the Flat but you probably need to be 10lbs well in to win the Melbourne Cup.

When I look at the card via adjusted RPRs (at the RP site) he's 6lbs off the top.
 
I have never even backed a horse in this race but Vaubans participation has made me have a look. Needless to say I will be hoping for beginners luck.

I'm really considering a wild stab at Alenquer. I liked him a couple years ago, when trained over here by William Haggas.

He never really delivered on that promise, and/or form from 2021. It's possible and probably likely I actually overrated his form from 2021, but anyway, my gut is telling me he's a backable each way price.

Clearly he needs to turn around some really poor runs in Australia this year.

But that's why he is available at 50s or thereabout.

Will pay my money and take my chance nearer the time. I want to wait to see if someone like Skybet goes 6 places.
 
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I doubt the UK bookies will be generous but the thousands of small on course punters won't be smashing a shortie from overseas. If you want to back Vauban, I'd do it over there. You might get 4/1 which, for me, is about right.

Probably won't have a bet but my each way 2 against the field in a private competition would probably be Absurde and Future History. Top jockeys on both.
 
This was posted a few hours ago, Marb...

"when inspected today the Mike Moroney-trained Alenquer continued to show signs of soreness in the near fore foot as a result of the stone bruise reported yesterday.


"The horse will be re-examined by RV veterinarians tomorrow morning prior to final scratching time (7.30am) to determine its suitability to race. "
 
Cheers Chaum. I have 35 quid each on with Hills at 33s going 6 places.

It's a wild stab, it really is. But if he is withdrawn, then so be it. Should get my stake back.
 
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The rest of the article is the trainers rep saying he might still make it, so it appears to be not a forgone conclusion. If you don't get a run, and as long as they've had a bit of rain (ie it's not a road), consider a quid of it on Virtuous Circle for the first 6, Hills were 66 a few days ago but might be 100s now.
 
archie said:
I doubt the UK bookies will be generous but the thousands of small on course punters won't be smashing a shortie from overseas. If you want to back Vauban, I'd do it over there. You might get 4/1 which, for me, is about right.

Probably won't have a bet but my each way 2 against the field in a private competition would probably be Absurde and Future History. Top jockeys on both.
Click to expand...

My choice without a flight hasn't got the greatest of draws 8 while Gold Trip and Vauban have prime draws......best price in Aus for Vauban at the moment is $4.60
 
chaumi said:
The rest of the article is the trainers rep saying he might still make it, so it appears to be not a forgone conclusion. If you don't get a run, and as long as they've had a bit of rain (ie it's not a road), consider a quid of it on Virtuous Circle for the first 6, Hills were 66 a few days ago but might be 100s now.
Click to expand...

My phone is saying that it’s 18 now and when they start racing at around 10.30 it’s going to be 24 - at 3.30 it’s going to be around 30 degrees and there’s no sign of rain - we had a thunderstorm last night but barely any rain, It won’t have been too different in the city I don’t think ( I’m about 70 miles away at the mo,the other side of the bay)

Hot hot hot!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is a screenshot of the top-rated in order on RPRs along with the best odds. I've taken 125/1 Virtuous Circle and 50/1 Kalapour, both 5 places and BOG, to appropriately small stakes.

No real interest in the race, to be honest, so any return will be a pleasant surprise.

Screenshot (53).png
 
My selectioon pissed up delighted with that

As suspected that extra 2 furlongs was a bridge too far for Vauban and he went out like a light. lesson to be learned 2 mile hurdlers are not 2 mile flat horse
 
Seemed to be no let up on early pace, all the front runners burnt out.
Some winner though and Moreira must be cursing his luck in the race after Heartbreak City a few years ago and tough passage today.
Was there 25 years ago, where did that time go ?
 
Just looked at my paddy power account and before I got here I’d backed without a fight, ashrun and soulcombe - go me !!

Didn’t couple them up of course, but I’ll take it [emoji23]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tanlic said:
My selectioon pissed up delighted with that

As suspected that extra 2 furlongs was a bridge too far for Vauban and he went out like a light. lesson to be learned 2 mile hurdlers are not 2 mile flat horse
Click to expand...

Great shout tan, won easy.

Can't agree about Vauban, though. The principals have come from the back and the leaders have bombed late. This all points to the pace being too fast and Vauban was never far off it. Backers of Absurde can probably count themselves unlucky not to get a place since he was also in the front third and hit the front too early in the straight.

It looks like adrenaline has had a major say in the race with too many jockeys getting the fractions wrong.

Just my initial take.
 
trudij said:
Just looked at my paddy power account and before I got here I’d backed without a fight, ashrun and soulcombe - go me !!

Didn’t couple them up of course, but I’ll take it [emoji23]
Click to expand...

Soulcombe also lost ground out of the gates but I don't suppose it really matters to you, trudij :D

Great punting! :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Soulcombe would have pissed up in the Ebor off 97 if they'd kept him here.
 

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