Naaqoos

gus said:
What makes her a "hype horse"?
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The fact Stan doesn't fancy her, and therefore chooses to ignore her outstanding form credentials. Never let it be said Stan allows facts and statistics to get in the way of ill informed opinion.
 
numbersix said:
The fact Stan doesn't fancy her, and therefore chooses to ignore her outstanding form credentials. Never let it be said Stan allows facts and statistics to get in the way of ill informed opinion.
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I'm getting pretty sick of this now, to the point where I'm not even going to post on threads on here. I think Rainbow View is massively overhyped due to her visually impressive wins but she deserves to be favourite for the 1000 Guineas, there is no doubt about that.

What facts and statistics have I ignored here? It is simply childish and devalues the forum to bring differences of opinion on other racing topics into this thread and turn your posts into a personal vendettas against other posters who hold different opinions to yourself.

I started this thread about Naaqoos and Euro simply commented on how the 1000 Guineas is an easy race to punt on, I merely agreed and stated how there is better value than Rainbow View.
 
Of the past 40 runnings of the Grand Criterium, only 7 individual Classic winners have emerged – 5 French Guineas (Blushing Groom, Irish River, Kendor and Hector Protector); 1 English and 1 Irish Guineas (Rock of Gibraltar winning both); and a French Derby (Hard To Beat).

So, although the race is billed as France's Top 2 year old event, it evidently has little bearing on the following years’ classics. St Jovite, (Irish Derby) and Kingmambo (French Guineas) were subsequent classic winners who finished unplaced in the Grand Criterium so it is not inconceivable that Mastercraftsman could emerge as a Classic victor next term.

I tend to agree that Mastercraftsman did run below form at Longchamp given his earlier defeats of Intense Focus. Also Naaqoos could not live with Bushranger in the Morny, and yet Mastercraftsman beat Wachman’s subsequent dual Group 1 winner 5 lengths in the Phoenix Stakes.

I think a poster on here (possibly Colin Phillips) suggested Mastercraftsman had a hard race in the National Stakes, and although I didn’t agree at the time, Sunday’s result does seem to imply his hard fought victory over Shaweel may have left its mark.

The form of Naaqoos in relation to Milanais was very close on Morny running and although Milanais was beaten this time by Naaqoos, the reversal was not significant. If anything Naaqoos’ neck decision over Milanais casts some doubt over the value of the form given the latter’s failure to win the Group 3 Prix La Rochette from the decent, but no world beater, Soul City.

The time of Naaqoos’ race is impressive on face value. It compares most favourably with Paco Boy's victory over the same course 24 hours earlier. Nevertheless that race was run over slightly further as the rails were kept wide to keep a fresh strip of ground for Arc day, plus the Grand Criterium was only the 2nd race on Arc day to be contested on the fresh ground.

It is dangerous to focus solely on a fast time in estimating a juvenile’s classic credentials. More importantly this was only the 7th renewal of the Grand Criterium to be contested over 7 furlongs (France Galop reduced the race distance from a mile in 2001) so we don’t have a reasonable sample with which to make a fair comparison. In addition to this, French races are frequently run in slow times due to their style of racing, with the early gallop usually very slow. So using time as a sole measure of ability for French races is extremely dangerous.

Of the five fastest Grand Criterium times clocked between 1970-2000 (when the race was contested over 1m) only one of those horses went onto Classic victory the following season, Irish River winning the 1978 French Guineas. Incidentally Tout Seul, by way of comparison, clocked the 3rd fastest time since 1970 for the 2002 Dewhurst (only half a second slower than the times trecorded by Dr Devious and Zafonic). This shows that only average 2 year olds are as capable of clocking impressive times as exceptional ones.

In conclusion I think Naaqoos is anything but a value bet for the Newmarket Guineas. I think there is every chance Mastercraftsman can reverse Grand Criterium form should they meet again. Also on breeding you would have to have reservations about Naaqoos seeing out a truly run 8 furlongs on the Rowley Mile, being by Oasis Dream out of a Machiavelian mare.

Unless the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy throws up something special, I suspect next year’s Guineas could well turn out to be not unlike 1989, 1996, 1997 and 2001 when the winner spends the preceding winter a well kept secret.


 
numbersix said:
The fact Stan doesn't fancy her, and therefore chooses to ignore her outstanding form credentials. Never let it be said Stan allows facts and statistics to get in the way of ill informed opinion.
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Numbersix - please keep it on topic and leave other issues out of the debate; Gamla stan is more than entitled to his opinion.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I've not waged a vendetta against anyone, I hold an opinion than Jamie Spencer is a very over rated jockey. You've not listed any perfectly good rides, I've cited examples of poor rides which plenty have people have commented on in the past.

I'm not the only one who's sick of perfectly decent threads turning into personal attacks. I was going to discuss the Grand Criterium with you about Naaqoos but I can't be arsed now as it seems you'd rather make things personal.
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Gamla most on here will see this for what it is....no worries on that score! Keep posting away!
 
Numbersix,

I've pm'd you asking to leave it aside, and get back on topic.

Now, did Freddie Head give any indication as to Naaqoos' likely target next May?
 
Hype is definied as "excessive publicity."

At the prices, I'd rather be on the 2 winners of the Group Ones on Sunday, yes. If they were trained by O'Brien or Stoute they'd be half the prices at least. There is always value in backing foreign trained runners for big British races.

I only bet on my speed ratings and the horses which achieve good figures on my system which has proved profitable for me. Naaqoos and Proportional are 2 of the fastest 2 year olds I've recorded this year and as such I think they are decent bets for the Guineas. I also think both have considerable scope to improve on their Group One wins. I've lost the motivation to post much more.
 
I was thinking that too Galileo but how many recent Sheikh Hamdan horses have been moved at 2? I get the impression he's pretty loyal to his trainers and jockeys.

Your question could also include a possible move for Tamayuz.
 
A couple of points, numbersix.

First of all, an obvious one:

Of the five fastest Grand Criterium times clocked between 1970-2000 (when the race was contested over 1m) only one of those horses went onto Classic victory the following season, IrishRiver winning the 1978 French Guineas. Incidentally Tout Seul, by way of comparison, clocked the 3rd fastest time since 1970 for the 2002 Dewhurst (only half a second slower than the times trecorded by Dr Devious and Zafonic). This shows that only average 2 year olds are as capable of clocking impressive times as exceptional ones.
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Using raw times as a measure of a horse's ability, unadjusted for the conditions on the day, is an utterly flawed methodology.

Second, on the subject of the Grand Criterum/Lagardere:

You noted that the race was reduced in distance from 1m to 7f back in 2001. What you fail to mention is that this was part of a restructuring of the calendar by France Galop that involved the removal of the 7f Prix Salamandre that was run in mid-September. The new (7f version of the) Grand Criterium/Lagardere therefore effectively replaced the Prix Salamandre.

A look through the last few winners of the Salamandre tells a very different story to the one you told about the Grand Criterum:

Tobougg - won the Dewhurst, 2nd in Champion Stakes and Hong Kong Cup, 3rd in Derby,
Giant's Causeway - won the St James's Palace, Eclipse, Sussex, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion, 2nd in Guineas and Irish Guineas, QEII and Breeders' Cup Classic
Aljabr - won the Sussex and Lockinge, 2nd in the St James's Palace
Xaar - won the Dewhurst, Eclipse 2nd, Irish Champion 3rd
Revoque - won the Grand Criterium, Guineas 2nd
Lord Of Men - spent 18 months out injured, won some minor Group races
Pennekamp - won the Dewhurst & Guineas
Coup de Genie - 1000 Guineas 3rd
Zafonic - won the Dewhurst & Guineas
Arazi - won the Grand Criteriu & Breeder's Cup Juvenile
Hector Protector - won the Grand Criterium, French Guineas & Jacques le Marois
Machiavellian - Guineas 2nd.
Oczy Czarnie - nowt
Common Grounds - nowt
Miesque - won the Boussac, 1000 Guineas, French 1000 Guineas, Jacques le Marois (twice!), Moulin, Breeders' Cup Mile (twice!), d'Ispahan; 2nd French Oaks, QEII, Moulin

Add to this those who have won the Grand Criterium since the restructure:

Rock of Gibraltar - won the 2000 Guineas, Irish 2000 Guineas, St James's Palace, Sussex, Moulin and 2nd in Breeders Cup Mile
Hold That Tiger - Woodward Stakes 2nd, Breeders Cup Juvenile 3rd
American Post - won Racing Post Trophy & French Guineas
Oratorio - won Eclipse & Irish Champion, 2nd in Dewhurst & Irish 2000 Guineas, 3rd in St James's Palace
Horatio Nelson - Dewhurst 2nd, died during Derby
Holy Roman Emperor - Dewhurst 2nd, retired afterwards
Rio De La Plata - 2nd in French Guineas, 3rd in Jean Prat

That's pretty exalted company that Naaqoos has found himself in.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
A couple of points, numbersix.

First of all, an obvious one:

Using raw times as a measure of a horse's ability, unadjusted for the conditions on the day, is an utterly flawed methodology.
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I am rushing off to Towcester now so I will pick up on the main points later.

I don't disagree with the comments above, however it was not my intention to provide a details anaylsis of the race times, simply to take a cursory look at the fastest times (in repsonse to the posters pointing to Naaqoos' "significantly fast time") to see if any of the horses posting fast times for the race had gone on to classic success (the posters' Classic hopes for Naaqoos seem to hinge on his time). As a way of dispelling the apparent theory of the poster that a fast time warrants an ante-post Classic punt, I think this has been a fair measure.
 
Yes, but I'm confident that Gamla Stan is basing his opinion on more than just the raw time - he'll have done the necessary adjustments.
 
Wow, really? Assuming he's still entered, and he's not running at Dundalk (!)...

Nice pedigree!
 
Unless I'm mistaking, excluding the Keddy horse, and if it's not a Tregoning animal, and it's a colt, sure it's not the Godolphin animal in the first at Lingfield?!

The mystery continues...
 
if anyone has gone back and looked at my original edited message which was done this morning, the guessing game may have not taking so long on the wrong road.
 
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