The same was being said last year Warbler...they won the Guineas, Irish Derby etc.
You think Mastercraftman ran to form in France when he lost to Intense Focus for the first time in 4 encounters...I do not (nor does the formbook).
I think Rip Van Winkle was given alot to do today in a race where those handy did best...you obviously don't.
I'm not sure the same was being said last year. My recollection was that most of the talk centred on New Approach being very good, unless you're interpreting lack of comment about the Ballydoyle horses as tantamount to them being poor my omission?
As I've said before I keep private speed rating figures and for the most part (although they're hardly infallible) they tend to serve quite well in highlighting emerging top class 2yo's and after a bit of time, I've come to learn what sort of figure a top class prospect is capabel of registering.
To a large extent a good figure can only be acheived by running a strong pace throughout he race, and the log is full of visually impressive winners who've triumphed off a moderate pace, who then get taken off their feet in a true test (which is much more likely to be the type of race that these prospects will face in a Guineas).
The four figures i have for Mastercraftsman are as follows;
(The figure in brackets is the going correction)
Railway Stakes - 88.31 (+1.78 - fast side of good)
Phoenix Stakes - 88.95 (+1.53 - good)
National Stakes - 94.13 (-12.48 - very heavy)
Prix Lagadere - 96.20 (+3.65 - Firm G/F in places)
It's a progressive profile, and is just about on the edge of what would be considered notable in a normal year. Anything above 95 as a rule of thumb is notable, and a horse that beats 100 is very noteworthy (you get about 2 or 3 in a year normally that beat 100, although this year I haven't found a single one). On this figure he's run to form and pretty well to expectation, as a 2yo normally improves about 2.5pts with each race in group company, which means he'd have been expected to get about 98 by Longchamp using the Railways stakes as a baseline. If you use the national stakes as a baseline then he'd have been expected to reach 96.63 in France, and hasn't missed out on that projection by more than half a length. The Lagadere was by far the fastest race he'd been pitched into to date, and it is worth considering (imho) that the first time he was asked to do this, he was found wanting.
Rip Van Winkle I'll need to adjust later this evening when the full Newmarket results are in, but to date he's coming from a lower base having won moderately paced races in;
83.05 - (+0.88 good)
83.82 - (-1.19 good)
I'd expect him to hit a figure of about 90 on a normally progressive curve, but could be up at 95+ if Intense Focus is allowed to set the projection. It might transpire again, that the Dewhurst has been quick, and that this is the first time that RVW has been pitched into such a race, and again he's been found out slightly as he hasn't placed.
The Bolger colt is the interesting one as his graph is much more of roller coaster (which is unusual, though not unheard of). Most aspiring 2yo champions have a line of constant linear progression closer to that of Mastercraftsman.
maiden - 84.70 (+1.67 - good)
Coventry - 91.69 (+3.31 G/F F in places)
Railway Stakes - 88.06 (+1.78 fast side of Good)
Angelsey - 85.58 (+0.68 good)
National Stakes - 79.23 (-12.48 swamp)
Goffs Million - 88.02 (-0.24 good)
Lagadere - 96.70 (+3.65 Firm G/F in places)
His two quickest (best?) runs have come on a firm surface with a going correction above +3.50 I don't know how significant this is, but I'm sure you were pointing this out last year in defence of Henrythenavigator whose form dipped mid season in line with the amount of hideous rain we had. He's also put up modest figures on ground that was good, and his worst result occurred on heavy ground, which at -12.48, which is borderline raceable on the flat. His modest mid season figures have also come in moderately paced races too, and his profile is very similar to that of Henry's 2yo career. When he's faced a more punishing pace he's improved for it. It remains to be seen whether the Dewhurst is going to yield such a figure or whether he gets a going correction in excess of +3.50 again
In short I don't believe there are many good candidates this year, and I'd normally have about 7 or 8 who've run in excess of 97. To date I've got just one colt, and at 98.70 he's not exactly bomb proof.
Rip Van Winkle might have been given a lot to do, but the simple fact is, he couldn't do it when he was asked to. In a funny way it reminds me of Zarkava's win in the Bousacc. She was given even more to do, in a race that subsequently threw up quite a few winners. I didn't believe I was going to record a quicker 2yo filly last term than I had for Natagora, who'd put in a couple of 100+ performances and a whole host of 95 and above runs. Zarkava not only eclipsed Natagora in the Bousacc, she also came from out of the clouds to do it. The explanatiopn for this I reasoned was because she was a bit special. She turned out to be more special than I realised, but I was never able to get a price on her after this win, though did consider 11/1 for the Arc at the start of the season, and even 8's after her Pouliches. RVW might have been set a task today, but he wasn't up to it. That's not to say he can't win a Guineas, as I believe this is a poor year. Right now though Freddie Head holds the trump card I believe
: Time (s)
