Nervous Chase Thread

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Henderson is a pain in the arse with his novice chasers. Withdrawn because of unsuitable ground yet the ground is officially Good and the race was run in something like 12 seconds slower than standard, albeit the winner wasn't fully extended.

Thomas Campbell's best form has come on ground with Good in the description and his worst when the going was testing. I'm not quite sure what Nicky wanted, yet he's always moaning about lack of opportunity for his novice chasers.

Still, R4 worked to the advantage of backers of the winner as his SP was 1/16.
 
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wilsonl said:
Henderson is a pain in the arse with his novice chasers. Withdrawn because of unsuitable ground yet the ground is officially Good and the race was run in something like 12 seconds slower than standard, albeit the winner wasn't fully extended.

Thomas Campbell's best form has come on ground with Good in the description and his worst when the going was testing. I'm not quite sure what Nicky wanted, yet he's always moaning about lack of opportunity for his novice chasers.

Still, R4 worked to the advantage of backers of the winner as his SP was 1/16.
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I bet it on Matchbook for 1k at 2.252. My winnings were €10 minus 0.08c commission. Borderline fraud how they calculate deductions.
 
Wetherby 1.55

Rocky's Treasure has to concede a double penalty but at 4.3 on the exchanges I'm happy to be on. I'm not sure what to make of Poetic Rhythm. He's built for chasing but I reckon he's a long term prospect rather than one to be taking 11/10 about. Crucial Role is probably the right price. He is similarly rated to Rocky Treasure over hurdles but what he lacks in experience is made up with getting 12lb off RT. My angle is more taking on the favourite who is awfully short based on his Challow Hurdle win.
 
I see it as a no bet race but if forced to choose I'd probably side with Crucial Role.

I agree with your reservations about the fav, and his form since Newbury has not been sparkling.

I'd be worried that Rocky's Treasure is having his third run in a month, it looks like they want to get him out again before the ground changes, and his jumping has been slightly ropy. His tendency to jump out to the right won't help his task of conceding 12 lbs.
 
Grey said:
I see it as a no bet race but if forced to choose I'd probably side with Crucial Role.

I agree with your reservations about the fav, and his form since Newbury has not been sparkling.

I'd be worried that Rocky's Treasure is having his third run in a month, it looks like they want to get him out again before the ground changes, and his jumping has been slightly ropy. His tendency to jump out to the right won't help his task of conceding 12 lbs.
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Can't really disagree with any of that only to say that the fav is such a bad price you could make a fair case for either. I just rather the experience of Rocky Treasure over the weight concession to Crucial Role.
 
The Rocky Treasure price has fallen apart with the fav getting bigger and bigger. Not surprising.
 
Straight match now with Crucial Role a NR. All in Rocky Treasure. Use a 12 Inch nail.
 
Poetic Rhythm is one absolute fraud of a horse. Take out the Challow hurdle fluke and you're left with nothing.
 
Huntington 3.25

Thomas Campbell is entered again over 2m 4f, trip which is short of his best form over hurdles. Le Breuil will not be going off the 15/8 generally available. I'd take 7/4 and 13/8 too. He can go off around 11/8 or 5/4.
 
SlimChance said:
Huntington 3.25

Thomas Campbell is entered again over 2m 4f, trip which is short of his best form over hurdles. Le Breuil will not be going off the 15/8 generally available. I'd take 7/4 and 13/8 too. He can go off around 11/8 or 5/4.
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Thomas Campbell withdrawn again.
 
Fontwell 1.50

A mares Beginners Chase. I'll be backing Jet Set 3/1. Molly Childers sets a fair standard on the recent Bengor 2nd but it's completely factored into the price. Graceful Legend is the obvious angle being the best of these over hurdles but Jet Set only had 5 runs over hurdles and is completely unexposed.
 
Taunton 3.40
Full

Night of Sin is probably the better long term prospect than Full but given tomorrows race will be run on Good to Firm I'd make Full odds on. There was nothing really between them on their respective starts over fences although Full was pitched in the deep end of a Grade 2 where he was outclassed.
 
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