Newmarket July Meeting

R

reet hard

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Surprised we haven't a thread for this already? Come on you guys, let's have your thoughts on one of the better meetings of the whole Flat season.

In the 3.15 the fav needs taking on, imo. Unproven at either class or distance, his price is based more on potential than actual substance. My own view is that he's unlikely to find the anticipated for the step up in trip, and (granted a decent pace) he'll be found out against proper 12f horses.
I'll oppose him with Gospel Choir. Still improving last season, and SMS wouldn't house a 6yo gelding unless he thought there was more to come this. His seasonal debut was nothing but a warm up and he now goes for a race his trainer has absolutely farmed in the past. 7/2 looks more than fair - he'd probably be a 6/4 shot without the Gosden moke.
 
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Already backed Gospel Choir before I came on here........Great Minds:lol:

Mahsoob is hard to assess as he never wins by far but he's out to do today (win a Group race) what Gospel Choir has already proved he can do.

Later in the day I am having a few bob on Bartel ew in the 5.30pm who could go very close at a big price
 
July Stakes

i liked Elronaq's attitude when winning last time but have to row in with Eltezam to confirm the Haydock form..big figure horse. Sixth Sense is another decent figure horse but has a had a few runs now.
 
Was interested to see how the winner got on as liked Nisser who ran behind him on debut.
He's back out at Ascot tomorrow.
 
EC1 said:
still think Resonant has a few lbs in hand on that Newmarket maiden form..tough ask last time
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when i got a 100 figure for this horse when it won at Newmarket... i thought it might be over generous..nice to see it was realistic..as i said at the time..i'd have kept this one for the cambridgeshire..blown its mark now
 
Duly hosed in. Good shout.

The Falmouth looks an interesting race tomorrow. Looks a tricky one to call.
Cherry Hinton too. The Albany winner and Easton Angel going up to 6.
 
The Falmouth is tricky but the market looks wrong.

Lucida is probably the price she should be but Avenir Certain I can't have one bit on the ground, she has a high action. I think similar ground concerns surround Fintry and Integral whom Moore said didn't let herself down on fast ground at Ascot.

Bawina is tempting but I've gone with Amazing Maria who is (or was) too big at 12s. There's a concern her win last time out stands out like a sore thumb a bit but her trainer is very shrewd and I'm prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt.

I've backed tracker horse Express Himself in the last. He won for me at Haydock where he must have lost at least four lengths at the start and a 5lb hike in the ratings doesn't look enough.
 
Can't recall the full interview, but the Cheveley Park MD gave the distinct impression that Integral wouldn't run on the likely ground?
 
Lucida is the bet of the week tomorrow/today. With a better start and passage in the 1000, and ridden closer to the pace the last day, this is a dual group 1 winner this season. Lump job for me.
 
Illuminate must be a certainty Hannon has only got one runner in the race:)

Tried and tested at 6f against a colt who would have ran at 6f by now if they thought that was his trip she rates a 3 star bet for me.
 
Really can't agree with you chaps regarding the Falmouth stakes, in my opinion last years 3 yos were better than this years and i'll be very dissapointed if Avenir Certain doesn't win this well. Pulled the jockeys arms out behind Fintry as was heavily restrained at the rear lto and gave her too much to do. Won the french 1000gs and Diane with a tremendous turn of foot, just sorry that Integral is out as have lost nearly a point of her price.
 
I tend to take the view that if they haven't run on a certain ground, ie) GF then you really can't say they wont act on it, and the ground is watered, as you say if they were unduly concerned about the ground then she probably wouldn't run.
 
Avenir Certain has won on a G1 fast ground though. 15 june 2014...Chantilly. ground description was a nonsense thatt day..unusual for France:)

that day she won in 125.37..2.63 seconds faster than RP standard..

even if you ignore standard..to cover 10.5f in that time alone shows the surface was quick. when you consider that Golden Horn ran York 10.4f in 128.74..track is similar test to Chantilly...on proper good ground..then to run further 3 seconds faster tells you its fast ground at Chantilly

on the same card even an amateur race ran faster than RP standard
 
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Simpson Jersey said:
Thanks for that EC1, makes me feel better, which horse do you fancy in this race?
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in a true run race..Lucida..on my calcs she won the Coronation by 1lb..closing against a pace that suited those near it..so a massive effort there to come from where she did.

If Erveyda was in the race..what price would she be?..imo Lucida is as good if not better than her.

no real guaranteed pace here though for her...Euro Charline?...Fintry?

I'll wait until i see the early pace before having a go..AC would need a good pace too with being a winner at 10f

Without knowing the pace..no one can be confident imo...a slow pace won't suit the frst two in the market..so its russian roulette betting beforehand imo
 
Arabian Queen will make it.

Regards Lucida at Ascot. Could easily make a case for her winning last time. She was though right behind the French filly and made her move first. The French filly kicked after her and took 2 lengths. She closed late on. Unlucky possibly. Pace would be key to her reversing the form with her next time.

As for today I hope she wins, deserves one. For sure though she will be sat a bit handier.
 
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