Newmarket July meeting

There is nothing in that article that I haven't been saying all this time, for crying out loud.

How many times have I put forward the idea of horses losing about two lengths per circuit per horse-width wide they have had to run the bends?

How many times have I stated that allowances needed to be made for certain horses being stopped when making their run, etc etc?

The Beyer article - which, incidentally, I read about 30 years ago - talks about pace collapse, which I've mentioned more times than I care to remember. This is exactly what Simon Rowlands measures via sectional timing.

You might not have been a member on here when I talked about watching VHS videos - that's how long ago it was and I also had an article about it published in The Raceform Update some time before that - as it was around the late '90s. I urged people to watch videos of race on Fast Forward [so long as there was no visual noise on the playback] because it highlighted which horses had made their move too soo or too late, etc. That was years and years before sectional timing had been heard of over here. What I was effectively touching on back then was one aspect of what you are referring to as 'trip handicapping'.

I have also propounded the idea of allowing horses more lbs per length than the accepted scales for ground lost through interference in a race. There must be dozens of forumites who will support that assertion.

I think it was maybe Maxbet or Beef Or Salmon and I who had such a discussion just last week or the week before about allowing for ground lost by going wide and how to allow for it.

It give me no pleaseure to say it, reet, but your post above just blasts your interpretation of how I operate to smithereens and, frankly, makes you come across as a complete and utter fanny.

I will not be engaging with you on these matters again.
 
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Strange that;you've spent much of this thread arguing against it?:lol:
It's exactly how I've viewed racing for a number of years, and said many times on this forum.the eyes often see more than than the clock tells, period.
I might also remind you of the 2019 Oaks,when I pointed out that Ryan Moore's mount suffered a bad trip which (in your standard slag RM mode) proceeded to rubbish,not even considering that I did have a point.
You see,I've viewed racing thus for a long,long time before I ever came on this forum,and though it's been torrid lately with all the abuse thrown my way, I'm not here to big myself up,(don't feel the need to), but to discuss and analyse horse racing,and speak out when others spout opinions on subjects they clearly haven't comprehended fully - trip handicapping the latest example.
 
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simmo said:
Unless you're carrying a grudge from a perceived slight 4 years ago, in which case every word becomes something to be attacked.
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That was in response to DO's claim to understand the subject fully.
Much of the unpeasantness came from your direction; do you really need to continue it?
 
reet hard said:
That was in response to DO's claim to understand the subject fully.
Much of the unpeasantness came from your direction; do you really need to continue it?
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For someone who has been sniping at DO for years (let's be honest here), this is rich. Get your own house in order and let me worry about mine.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Anyone know what the sectional pars are for the July Course? Am I right in thinking the finishing par is around 102/103%?

If so, it would make the July Cup evenly/truly run:

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Just as a matter of interest I have recast the sectional timings on a cumulative basis so as to indicate where horses were at the end of each furlong. I've tried to use colour coding to indicate positions but my excel skills aren’t up to much, nor can I get the interactive version copied so you can click along at each furlong.

So far a the table is concerned you wouldn’t know Shaquille had blown the start, only that he was seventh at the end of the first furlong. You would, however, see that something dramatic happened to Little Big Bear in the fourth furlong. All in all I think it gives a fair summation of how the race unfolded - albeit with unanswered questions within it - to confirm (or not) what you saw (or thought you saw).

IMG_1769.jpeg

Ps: actually it not wholly accurate - I cocked up where Vadream was second furlong for example, but you get the idea, I hope:whistle:
 
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barjon said:
Just as a matter of interest I have recast the sectional timings on a cumulative basis so as to indicate where horses were at the end of each furlong. I've tried to use colour coding to indicate positions but my excel skills aren’t up to much, nor can I get the interactive version copied so you can click along at each furlong.

So far a the table is concerned you wouldn’t know Shaquille had blown the start, only that he was seventh at the end of the first furlong. You would, however, see that something dramatic happened to Little Big Bear in the fourth furlong. All in all I think it gives a fair summation of how the race unfolded - albeit with unanswered questions within it - to confirm (or not) what you saw (or thought you saw).

View attachment 3034

Ps: actually it not wholly accurate - I cocked up where Vadream was second furlong for example, but you get the idea, I hope:whistle:
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Surprised to see AOB state that Moore was about to launch Little Big Bear when he was the meat in a sandwich. Little Big Bear was going backwards and Moore started pushing hard and the gap, he was falling back in, closed. I'd expect an imminent retirement message. The horse has lost interest in racing.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
Surprised to see AOB state that Moore was about to launch Little Big Bear when he was the meat in a sandwich. Little Big Bear was going backwards and Moore started pushing hard and the gap, he was falling back in, closed. I'd expect an imminent retirement message. The horse has lost interest in racing.
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Surely one bad run won't be enough to get him retired?? 2 of his 4 runs this season have been decent enough. Maybe he just needs a short break.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
Surprised to see AOB state that Moore was about to launch Little Big Bear when he was the meat in a sandwich. Little Big Bear was going backwards and Moore started pushing hard and the gap, he was falling back in, closed. I'd expect an imminent retirement message. The horse has lost interest in racing.
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Imo, he was little outpaced, rather than going backwards, but was badly baulked and RM eased him down after.
 
I think you’re forgetting that Coolmore are all about making stallions so they have to have valid excuses why their odds-on favourite gets beaten in a race where they thought he was a stone cold certainty. Likewise AOB talks up every horse as the second coming because those quotes will potentially be used later in marketing the horse.
 
jinnyj said:
I think you’re forgetting that Coolmore are all about making stallions so they have to have valid excuses why their odds-on favourite gets beaten in a race where they thought he was a stone cold certainty. Likewise AOB talks up every horse as the second coming because those quotes will potentially be used later in marketing the horse.
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yes
it's damage limitation
 
jinnyj said:
I think you’re forgetting that Coolmore are all about making stallions so they have to have valid excuses why their odds-on favourite gets beaten in a race where they thought he was a stone cold certainty. Likewise AOB talks up every horse as the second coming because those quotes will potentially be used later in marketing the horse.
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I hear what you're saying Jinny, and am aware of AOB's propensity for bigging up his colts, but LBB gas only under-performed twice in his life,imo.
First time in the Guineas,off an uneven pace and again in the July Cup, again off an uneven pace (which there's plenty of evidence it was,despite the maths saying differently)
I still maintain he was outpaced in both races, I thought and said so after the Guineas (Chaldean's chickens have come home to roost since) and also after Saturday' race, which I reckon will be justified in the fulness of time.
 
If he was outpaced, surely by definition other horses were going faster than him at that stage of the race, which to me looked a pretty crucial part of the race. The usual remedy for that is to put them over further. Doubt they'd do that.

I was underwhelmed with his Haydock win. In fact he was outpaced that day too, but what I didn't like was the way he carried his head. To me he looks like a colt getting his own ideas about racing.

As you say, in the fulness of time we'll see.
 
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