Newmarket July meeting

Euronymous said:
I'm interested in your view of the Summer Mile. Particularly the claims of the two Beckett's who are rated almost the same but come from radically different race types.
Click to expand...

Written earlier today:

[TABLE="width: 470"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jimi Hendrix
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]11/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Aldaary
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]9/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mighty Ulysses
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+
120?
[/TD]
[TD]11/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Angel Bleu
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]6/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Master Of The Seas
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]10/3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Regal Reality
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]+
{120?}
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Classic Causeway
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]28/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] New Kingdom
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]18/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dashing Roger
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]o
[/TD]
[TD]100/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is a bit substandard. Over the last few years the ‘card RPR’ of the winner has been 130-134 so the ceiling here of 128 is a bit low. I thought Jimi Hendrix’s run in the Hunt Cup was a proper eye-opener. He was fully nine lengths clear over on the far side. I had him down as a soft ground horse until then and Ascot looks like getting enough rain over the next day or so help ease the ground. I think he’s the one to beat here. Interestingly, his stablemate Sonny Liston, for the same owners, won the near-side race that day and could well land the John Smith’s Cup today too. That’s a double worth considering.
 
Nice to see Nashwa bounce back today. Optimum is probably over 9 but was far to good today.

Was in the 2nd camp until the winner entered the picture. Left alone thankfully.
 
Weird race, that Summer Mile. Slow by 6.34s. Ground must be softer on the round track. I'm not convinced JH got a good ride. I'd have preferred to see Costello let him find his rhythm rather than force him to try and go the gallop.
 
I'm also on Littel Big Bear who MIGHT not have been 100% last time.

He look special to me last season so fingers crossed he can get back to winning ways.

Forever the pessimist these days I took 2.44 on the Machine to finish top 2.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Weird race, that Summer Mile. Slow by 6.34s. Ground must be softer on the round track. I'm not convinced JH got a good ride. I'd have preferred to see Costello let him find his rhythm rather than force him to try and go the gallop.
Click to expand...

I thought he completely lost the plot on Jimi Hendrix when making up ground so fast he must have thought the 2f marker was the winning line. Wouldn't have won but thought he cost the horse 2nd.
 
Quantum Impact, for sure the NAP of the day beaten by some Godolphin cnut that had no worthwhile form this year. I really hate Appleby
 
Bunbury Cup.

I've edited my original post for non-runners. Always good to see the figures doing well. I felt I couldn't back both Biggles and Awaal at short odds so let both go but sneaked a wee ew on Accidental Agent at 40s down at the start. Didn't come close to covering my other bets on the race but ate into the deficit a bit.



[TABLE="width: 515"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]MON
123+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Awaal
[/TD]
[TD]P Mulrennan
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Shining Blue
[/TD]
[TD]Rob Hornby
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bless Him
[/TD]
[TD]C Shepherd
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]4[SUP]th[/SUP]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Biggles
[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Moore
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Probe
[/TD]
[TD]T Whelan
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ropey Guest
[/TD]
[TD]Sean Levey
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2[SUP]nd[/SUP]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gorak
[/TD]
[TD]K Shoemark
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Streets Of Gold
[/TD]
[TD]C Bishop
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Gatekeeper
[/TD]
[TD]Joe Fanning
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Montassib
[/TD]
[TD]William Buick
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rainbow Fire
[/TD]
[TD]Neil Callan
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Popmaster
[/TD]
[TD]Marco Ghiani
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]133 t
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Star Of Orion
[/TD]
[TD]Rossa Ryan
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+
128
[/TD]
[TD]
6[SUP]th[/SUP]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cruyff Turn
[/TD]
[TD]David Allan
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Accidental Agent
[/TD]
[TD]Mia Nicholls 7
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]127d
131
[/TD]
[TD]5[SUP]th[/SUP]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

As always, I’m focusing on the handful that look likely to at least hit the target figure for the race so Awaal, Biggles and The Gatekeeper immediately spring to mind. Then I want to consider the ‘sleepers’ who are well in on historical figures but for one reason or another haven’t yet shown their true ability, if they still retain it. That would bring in Popmaster, Star Of Orion and Accidental Agent.
 
Yes. A freak in the nicest possible way.

Run To Freedom has run a stormer at a huge price. I fancied him a bit for Royal Ascot but anyway...that's racing...he's bumped into the freak of nature today.
 
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Truncheon said:
Super Champion!

Miss the break again and then proceeded to annihilate them

Horse of the year nqat
Click to expand...
Well done T.
For me,it was a sprint turned into a dash,with most of the field tanking, and the winner remains an enigma.
He'll probably win in France with their similar style of racing suiting,and receive even higher accolades, but there'll always be a doubt in my mind about his real ability.
 
Anyone know what the sectional pars are for the July Course? Am I right in thinking the finishing par is around 102/103%?

If so, it would make the July Cup evenly/truly run:

Screenshot (21).png
 
Andrew Beyer, probably the father of sectionals as we know them, eventually realised that the formulaic appproach didn't cut the mustard altogether and he and recognised that trip handicapping saw things that weren't obvious from the figures (race reading,if you like).
SR etc have failed to take this on board, and it's obvious many of his disciples have followed the same path.
Even a cursory glance at the RP anaysis will illustrate my view is a fairly accurate summary of how the race turned out.
The figure chasers can stew in their own juice.:lol:
 
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Yes, I read the Andrew Beyer book and binned it. It never made sense to me. His idea of class pars read like nonsense.

However, the idea of sectionals, as I've argued repeatedly, are more akin to athletics performance analysis and the idea of optimum expending of energy is entirely plausible.

I like to think that my reading of form, which I express as ratings, takes on board how races are run but I am open to the idea of sectional timing backing up - or even setting me right on - that reading.

The chances are that they will almost invariably back up your own expert visual reading.

I saw straight away at York that runners weren't making ground from the back. In fact, I said to the brother in a morning phone call that we needed whatever we were backing to race prominently. Turd Chapman had mentioned the strong tailwind up the straight at York, which already largely favours front runners [so long as they don't go too fast], and that was always going to reinforce it.

The sectionals will further reinforce it.

Just as your own expert reading would too, almost certainly.
 
Another thing...

I'm not great at reading the race as it unfolds but like to think I'm getting better at it, with the help of the on-screen timings.

But take yesterday's opener at Ascot.

As soon as the race finished and I realised that most of the principals had raced prominently, I concluded that the early pace was highly likely to have been slow, in much the same way as if the prominent runners had finished down the park the pace would have been too fast.

The ATR sectional analysis of the race backs that up. I think [because it's net uphill at Ascot] the par at Ascot is around 100% so the finishing par points to the winner being quicker in the final part of the race than elsewhere. Note the comment about the early pace in the picture.

View attachment 3031
 
It looked like a sound enough race won by a totally unexposed and well handicapped filly to me. All the prominent runners didn't fill the top places by any means.

Bar the winner, and third horse Vintage Clarets, who were ridden prominently, Badri in second came from midfield, Raasel and Existent, 4th and 5th were held up in rear, Kings Lynn in 6th was midfield, Rohaan in 7th held up in rear, as was Harry Brown in 8th.

Spoof who led folded tamely in 9th, Arecibo was prominent but then faded into 10th, while Whenthedealinsdone was also prominent but faded into 12th.

I think all of the above generally disproves the notion that the race was solely dominated by a few prominent runners who dictated a slow pace from the front. Yes the first and third were prominent, but not all the prominent runners saw out their races.

I think time could well show The Big Board to be a listed or group filly. I have said what I think about Badri on the anti post thread.
 
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Marb said:
It looked like a sound enough race won by a totally unexposed and well handicapped filly to me. All the prominent runners didn't fill the top by places by any means.

Bar the winner, and third horse Vintage Clarets, who were ridden prominently, Badri in second came from midfield, Raasel and Existent, 4th and 5th were held up rear, Kings Lynn in 6th was midfield, Rohaan in 7th held up in rear, as was Harry Brown in 8th.

Spoof who led folded tamely in 9th, Arecibo was prominent but then faded into 10th, while Whenthedealinsdone was also prominent but faded into 12th.

I think all of the above generally disproves the notion that the race was solely dominated by a few prominent runners who dictated a slow pace from the front. Yes the first and third were prominent, but not all the prominent runners saw out their races.

I think time could well show The Big Board to be a listed or Group filly, and I have said what I think about Badri on the anti post thread.
Click to expand...

I didn't say all of the principals, I said 'most'. But as it turns out..

ATR results comments:

1st - soon led
2nd - chased leaders
3rd - chased leaders

Maybe we have a different idea of 'racing prominently'?

The winner, a 22/1 shot, got an easy lead and took full advantage of it. She's on a curve.

This is the kind of race that interests me. Two of my three bets didn't run and the other wasn't off so I was watching the race for its own sake. I was keen to check the sectional analysis to see if it backed up the visual. It does. The race is of interest because of the beaten horses. Raasel in fourth came from the back and can be marked up so I'll be writing off this run but keeping the horse in mind going forward.

King's Lynn, the favourite, got a strange ride:

[FONT=&quot]raced near side, raced keenly, led briefly, chased leaders, steadied off heels lost place and towards rear 3f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders[/FONT]
Click to expand...

Chasing the leaders should have been an advantage on the day, so why was he steadied off heels to end up in a poor tactical position before staying on when the race was beyond him? Another run to write off but all the hallmarks of another day being in mind despite market strength.
 
Ah ok. Well my post was based on the Racing Post comments in running, DO.

I'll watch it again. Badri from memory was indeed nearer first than last for most of the race. Having watched it again he was a cross between chasing leaders (ATR comments) and technically being midfield (RP comments) until the final furlong or two.

I definately agree the winner is on a progressive curve. She'll be rated in the high 90's after that. At her young age she could be in listed races soon enough. If not this year then next year.

The form has every chance of working out.
 
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