NH sectional times

As a point of reference these are the splits from last year..this would be what you would expect.

cumulative sectionals:

1212.7
26.627.3
67.868.6
80.180.9
102103.2
115.4116.6
155.2156.1
168.9170.5
180.5182.5
192194
208.2210.8
222.3225.4
241.2244.9
261.1264.2
291.1294.9
303.4306.8
324.2324.8

<colgroup><col width="86"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]indian castle[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]wishful thinking[/TD]

</tbody>

As with this years races the lower class race is at one point is 3.8 seconds faster than the G3..but the see saw kicks in late on when the G3 is faster..this is what you would expect

Indian Castle time to 2 out/finish = 291.1/33.1
Wishful Thinking time to 2 out/finish = 294.9/29.9

makes this years look rather interesting..and hopefully profit worthy
 
The two races may have appeared to be similar but the similarity stopped at 2m class 4. Both races were run over the same distance but the two individuals ran completely different races. Firstly Diamond Tammy hugged the inside throughout and drafted at the back of a tightly knit peloton, in contrast Henri De Boistron ran around the perimeter and was totally exposed in a strung out field, both jumping opposite sides of each fence throughout. Henri De Boistron must have ran at least 20 lengths further.

Take the two videos back to where Henri’s top speed starts and Henri has run approx 1L per furlong faster because his race is getting away from him against lighter weighted individuals. Put both videos side by side as they jump 5 out and they run all the way to the line together, Tammy does appear to run the same period on the bridal but Henri has surely run further, also Tammy is taking on horses carrying much more weight. Put another way, stick Henri in Tammy’s race, let him draft at the back skirting the rail (less distance) and he surely would have been able to delay his top speed run, thus run faster especially as he would have got into that race carrying 10-03 as opposed to the 10-10.

I am not saying you are wrong Alan but there are too many imponderables not considered in your calculations.
 
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I also think from a visual perspective the handicapper will give Diamond Tammy at least a 10Lb penalty and Henri not much more than 3Lb, which doesn't augur well for the future.
 
Maxbet said:
The two races may have appeared to be similar but the similarity stopped at 2m class 4. Both races were run over the same distance but the two individuals ran completely different races. Firstly Diamond Tammy hugged the inside throughout and drafted at the back of a tightly knit peloton, in contrast Henri De Boistron ran around the perimeter and was totally exposed in a strung out field, both jumping opposite sides of each fence throughout. Henri De Boistron must have ran at least 20 lengths further.

Take the two videos back to where Henri’s top speed starts and Henri has run approx 1L per furlong faster because his race is getting away from him against lighter weighted individuals. Put both videos side by side as they jump 5 out and they run all the way to the line together, Tammy does appear to run the same period on the bridal but Henri has surely run further, also Tammy is taking on horses carrying much more weight. Put another way, stick Henri in Tammy’s race, let him draft at the back skirting the rail (less distance) and he surely would have been able to delay his top speed run, thus run faster especially as he would have got into that race carrying 10-03 as opposed to the 10-10.

I am not saying you are wrong Alan but there are too many imponderables not considered in your calculations.
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thats great input

Henri did run further.. but at Leicester i think the better ground is on the outside..as you tend to find at most courses...that could even that up to a degree

We know from you video comparison and the sectionals that they ran the last few fences in a similar time

It could well be a dud and i think that any reason for a difference between races has to be looked at or we are going to get false assumptions.

I'd like to see how the 3rd horse runs next time..hopefully before the other two run..like that will happen :)

This thread is to look into relevance of these comparisons..your point is one to bear in mind certainly

The more you try and reduce factors ,,,you tend to find others don't you?

You start off with overall time..the big problem with that..even with the new timing is you can still get dawdle at the start..to overcome that you time from first obstacle..or time from the start when they are actually moving.

You then split the race up..and you can have the inside course /outside course scenario that we have here..how much quicker is the outside etc?..how many lengths lost /won by going outside or inside.?

The Cheltenham race is another strange one. Or is it a good pointer for the fast race?
 
Maxbet said:
The two races may have appeared to be similar but the similarity stopped at 2m class 4. Both races were run over the same distance but the two individuals ran completely different races. Firstly Diamond Tammy hugged the inside throughout and drafted at the back of a tightly knit peloton, in contrast Henri De Boistron ran around the perimeter and was totally exposed in a strung out field, both jumping opposite sides of each fence throughout. Henri De Boistron must have ran at least 20 lengths further.

Take the two videos back to where Henri’s top speed starts and Henri has run approx 1L per furlong faster because his race is getting away from him against lighter weighted individuals. Put both videos side by side as they jump 5 out and they run all the way to the line together, Tammy does appear to run the same period on the bridal but Henri has surely run further, also Tammy is taking on horses carrying much more weight. Put another way, stick Henri in Tammy’s race, let him draft at the back skirting the rail (less distance) and he surely would have been able to delay his top speed run, thus run faster especially as he would have got into that race carrying 10-03 as opposed to the 10-10.

I am not saying you are wrong Alan but there are too many imponderables not considered in your calculations.
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You're a lazy, selfish b*stard Paul. You disappear for 11 months of the year and then drop in with some gems! :cool:
 
ok

i've had a look at both races again..I'm not completely convinced that Henri did travel a lot further in distance..he was 4 wide on the bends but those bends are narrow and they give the impression of horses being further out imo..i also think looking along the back straight..its quite an advantage to race wide..that is a steep bank when you look at the angle of teh fences..it has to be slower on the inside.

But..lets say Henri has run further..then he must be above his mark as well you could assume?

The answer to me was re time the race again..but using the horse who finished 2nd btn nk..Take The Crown..as the marker

Take The Crown
F1-F8 = 129.1
F8-FIN = 103.1

Diamond Tammy
F1-F8 = 126.2
F8-FIN = 102.3

overall times: DT =228.5 .........TTC = 232.4

so after going 3 seconds faster early...DT also took 1 second off later..no see saw there

TTC = carried 11.4 rated 97
DT = carried 10.8 rated 96

to make it a level playing field TTC should have only carried 10.9 ,,which means he could have run faster obviously..9 lb less would affect the overall time by what?...9 lengths?

making the new overall times
DT = 228.5
TTC = 230.4

its about 4f from the 8th fence..so 9 lbs overall less to carry would be 3 lengths slower in that section..6 lengths earlier

TTC new splits to equal up weight difference =

F1-F8 = 127.9
F8-FIN = 102.5

so that makes Diamond Tammy still faster in both sections and 2 seconds quicker overall..which makes him 15 lb better than his current mark..but did win easily..worth 5 more for ease?

the second horse Yabadabadoo could have finished within 4 lengths had he not been eased when DT breezed past him..so he is probably 8lb in front of that mark.

Winnable marks for both horses

Diamond Tammy 111+
Yabadabadoo 121

The official ratings were updated yesterday....Yabadabadoo is still rated 113 ...Diamond Tammy now 106

so both worth following possibly:)



Horses To Follow

Diamond Tammy 111+
Yabadabado 121
Generous Ransom 142
Astigos 131
Irish Cavalier 146
 
Diamond Tammy and Henri De Boistron Raised 10Lb & 5Lb (106 & 96) respectively by the handicapper for future races , how are we looking Alun if they race each other with Henri in receipt of 10Lb
 
DT would win imo..not convinced about the wide running versus the quicker ground job..i think Henry is on his correct mark..DT is in hand

i was going to mention the 3rd horse in DT's race yesterday..until i saw it was running over 2.5m..ran wellish even at that trip
 
I have Astigos 8lbs ahead of its mark. I haven't done the rest of the field but I think straight off the top of my head I'd want it a bit better in than that before I rushed to take even money. That's no to say it won't win easily. Just not the type to carry my cash at that price.
 
montoya's son a non runner..odds on now

DO ..when a horse has an 8 lengths advantage over a field with only 4 opponents..originally..what price would you expect it to be?...surely a horse with that in hand would be odds on do you not think?

a 6k handicap with just 4 runners..its shabby really isn't it?...cheltenhamitis strikes again
 
We obviously approach handicaps from different angles, EC1.

Just because Astigos (in this instance) is 8lbs well in doesn't mean it is 8lbs better in than others. It is 8lbs better than its mark. What if the others in the race are also 8lbs better than their mark?

It may well be that none of them has 8lbs in hand but a couple might have 7 or 6, so a mistake or a wrong move by the jockey can wipe that out, or the race might not be run to suit, or the horse might have another day in mind.

As I said, I didn't look at the others so can't say for certain, just offering a starting-point regarding my thinking.

A £6k handicap? The warning bells are already ringing :)
 
Astigos is entered up in 3 races at Cheltenham and in order to even have a sniff of qualification for any of them, he would need to perform to a level that will give rise to the handicapper penalising him at least 14Lb. Therefore connections must have felt the horse good enough to perform well at Cheltenham or they wouldn't have wasted time and money entering.
Therefore I would envisage this horse barring an accident today surely performing to its very best, and even out performing the mark Alun attributes it. There is after all Aintree to think about should the Cheltenham plan go awry, and his present mark wouldn't make qualification there either.
 
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EC1 said:
when a horse has an 8 lengths advantage over a field with only 4 opponents..originally..what price would you expect it to be?...surely a horse with that in hand would be odds on do you not think?
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Under them circumstances the answer is yes, but remember you have unearthed the mark in a manner not freely available to everyone, so with this special insight we have the opportunity to get in as early as connections and take a bit of value.
 
It appears that weights are already allocated for the Festival handicaps, and - even with a penalty - Astigos likely wouldn't get a run in even the most modest of them.
 
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I know the handicap for the Grand national is fixed but I didn't realise the Cheltenham ones were, wasn't First Avenue given a 5Lb rise for winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown before he ran behind Salubrious In the Conditional 6 days later.

Gaspara was given 4Lb rise for doing a similar thing in 2007
 
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reet hard said:
It appears that weights are already allocated for the Festival handicaps, and - even with a penalty - Astigos likely wouldn't get a run in even the most modest of them.
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I did say - "to even have a sniff" - the point I was making was, he wouldn't be reined back today. I'd have thought
 
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Desert Orchid said:
We obviously approach handicaps from different angles, EC1.

Just because Astigos (in this instance) is 8lbs well in doesn't mean it is 8lbs better in than others. It is 8lbs better than its mark. What if the others in the race are also 8lbs better than their mark?

It may well be that none of them has 8lbs in hand but a couple might have 7 or 6, so a mistake or a wrong move by the jockey can wipe that out, or the race might not be run to suit, or the horse might have another day in mind.

As I said, I didn't look at the others so can't say for certain, just offering a starting-point regarding my thinking.

A £6k handicap? The warning bells are already ringing :)
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No...I don't have a different approach DO...do you think it might have crossed my mind that other horses might be well in if looked at from an ordinary handicap ratings perspective?

Firstly I check the handicap ratings to see if any others are well in..using two different sets of ratings that i have not had to compile..which is what i do on the AW. If I don't see any other horse in the race thats well in then i assume i have an edge. Takes a few minutes.

Where this differs from your method is..i don't have to speed rate every race to have a figure for every horse..whereas someone who handicaps usually has to put a lot of work in rating every race. Its a lazier way...but then again timing races then finding out they are no good takes time..and many people handicap races traditionally..we have ratings that already cover that in the RP

All i have to do with this is spot a suitable opportunity and then wait for the horse to appear. Its not a method that throws up lots of examples but in reality i'd rather have 5 bets a month with 3 winning than loads of bets that don't.

At no point on the thread have i said this is definitely a winner or some revolutionary way of finding winners..its an interesting angle..to me any way..and if it shows a profit..jobs a good un.

Todays is a bit disappointing ..but fields are small at this time of year ahead of the festival

Why would you not bet in a 6k handicap?..its no different to a 20k one really...its just horses running round at end of day

The AW has paltry prize money but has decent betting opportunities same as a Grade 1 race does
 
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I wouldn't want to bet in a £6k race for six thousand reasons.

It's different for people in the know, targeting a £6k race, maybe even knowing the opposition are backing your horse too...

But if I had anything to do with Astigos and thought he was only 8lbs ahead of his mark I'd be trying to get him 12lbs ahead of his mark before targeting a £20k+ race.

That isn't easy, though, when you're down in the 120s as it's much harder to get into a valuable race off that mark.

Astigos might win but I don't imagine it will be because he's 8lbs ahead of his mark. It will be because he's considered a lot better than that at home, but in the absence of that knowledge, I wouldn't consider getting involved at short odds.

I honestly think - based on painful personal betting experience - betting in low-class races is much more fraught with danger than better class.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't want to bet in a £6k race for six thousand reasons.

It's different for people in the know, targeting a £6k race, maybe even knowing the opposition are backing your horse too...

But if I had anything to do with Astigos and thought he was only 8lbs ahead of his mark I'd be trying to get him 12lbs ahead of his mark before targeting a £20k+ race.

That isn't easy, though, when you're down in the 120s as it's much harder to get into a valuable race off that mark.

Astigos might win but I don't imagine it will be because he's 8lbs ahead of his mark. It will be because he's considered a lot better than that at home, but in the absence of that knowledge, I wouldn't consider getting involved at short odds.

I honestly think - based on painful personal betting experience - betting in low-class races is much more fraught with danger than better class.
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tbh..i'm not following much of that..you say..only 8lb above its mark..like its nothing..thats an 8 length edge...do you only bet horses that have 12lb or 16 or 20 in hand?

you say if it wins it won't be because its 8lb in hand..but it will be because at home it might be 14

how on earth do you ever have a bet thinking like that?

how do you know how much a trainer thinks his horse has in hand in any race..how is it even relevant if we cannot measure it?

to be honest here..i'm reading that bit about if it wins it won't be the 8 in hand..and i'm worryingly getting the feeling you are trying to make a reason for it winning that takes any credit away from it being spotted here on this thread..i hope thats not the case

its no skin off my nose whether these win or not..its just an area of interest to me tbh
 
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