Nicholls in Ireland

Grey

Grey

Senior Jockey
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Paul Nicholls is 11/4 with William Hill to pull off his stated aim of winning the Irish trainers' championship this season. Do these odds represent value?

In recent seasons, the winning total in the Irish title race has been about £1.5m. Last year Nicholls won £3.6m in the UK alone, so of course he could win the Irish title if throwing enough resources at it. Presumably, however, his number one objective is to retain his UK title? Last year second-placed David Pipe had around £2.5m in prize money, so Nicholls will have to plan to exceed at least that amount.

A total of £4m, however, would give him a reasonable shot at both titles. He might get away with a lower target than £1.5m in Ireland because his arrival on the scene will presumably depress the earnings of his Irish rivals. This would leave him some additional scope to see off his UK competitors as well.

Last year Nicholls won £400k in Ireland, so a repeat of last year's total (£3.6m in the UK plus £0.4m in Ireland) should be enough. The current odds therefore seem generous.
 
Good thread and an interesting one to follow. Prize money is so good in Ireland for the non-Grade 1s it will be very difficult for Nicholls in my opinion to fend off the likes of Mullins and Meade if it is just the Grade 1s he aims at.

As far as I can see from last season it was:

Mullins - 1,132,665.00
Meade - 1,122,363.00
Paul Nicholls - 601,250.00

How many more Grade 1s could he win in Ireland than he did last season? Big big ask.
 
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For instance, despite not having a Grade 1 winner over Christmas and despite going through a very lean spell until the turn of the new year - Mullins still won more money over the Christmas period than Nicholls's sole Lexus win....it was 126,000,00 to 134,160,00.

Nicholls had a barn storming Punchestown, but Mullins still came out with nearly 200,000 more than Nicholls in prize money from that 4 days alone.
 
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Agreed it's a big ask, Gal, but he's got the firepower to have a proper run at it, imo.

Nicholls has only ever really looked at the Lexus, The Irish Hennessy and Punchestown seriously before, and he hasn't exactly been short of success.

He's never seriously looked beyond the above meetings, to the series of valuable 2-2.5m chases like the Fortria, Normans Grove, Dial-A-Bet, Hilly Way, Durkan etc) and there are plenty of Graded novices chases (Durkan New Homes, Moriarty, Arkle etc) that he can also target.

Given the ammunition at his disposal, and the fact that the established chasing order in Ireland is - how can I put this politely - relatively shite, I can see him seriously threatening to win the Trainers Championship over there, without even needing to have a proper bash in the hurdles events.
 
Agree the Irish chasing scene is pretty weak....but ignoring the high class novice events and handicaps let alone the run of the mill meetings in Ireland will leave him with a mountain to climb.

Mullins and an extremely quiet time before Christmas, while Meade had an awful time after Christmas. That is the pattern of both yards but they are unlikely to be as extreme this year. Like I said, Nicholls had a great Punchestown but still came up 200,000 short against Mullins. It is very different to what O'Brien has done in the flat season, which Nicholls himself admitted to sparking his interest in trying it himself. The Graded races will not be enough.

Ireland will become more important to him, but it wont be the priority and I personally think the novice chasers and hurdlers over here are more than capable of holding their own against his best or more likely his second or third strings that he will be sending over.



Grasshopper said:
Agreed it's a big ask, Gal, but he's got the firepower to have a proper run at it, imo.

Nicholls has only ever really looked at the Lexus, The Irish Hennessy and Punchestown seriously before, and he hasn't exactly been short of success.

He's never seriously looked beyond the above meetings, to the series of valuable 2-2.5m chases like the Fortria, Normans Grove, Dial-A-Bet, Hilly Way, Durkan etc) and there are plenty of Graded novices chases (Durkan New Homes, Moriarty, Arkle etc) that he can also target.

Given the ammunition at his disposal, and the fact that the established chasing order in Ireland is - how can I put this politely - relatively shite, I can see him seriously threatening to win the Trainers Championship over there, without even needing to have a proper bash in the hurdles events.
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I think it is unfair that a country with 4x the horse population of Ireland can come here and plunder our prizes with impunity.

I think HRI should implement a limit on the number of British raiders to Ireland.
 
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You'll be much more familiar with the scene over there than me, Gal, but I'm not convinced that Nicholls is going to ignore the major novice races or the major handicaps. I think he's got more than enough horses to cover these disciplines in both countries.

I'm not suggesting that PFN just needs to show up in Ireland with his horses, and these events are his for the taking either. But he has stacks and stacks of very good animals at his disposal and even his apparent second-stringers (say something like Forest Pennant) are probably capable of making an impact at Graded level in novice chases.

Where is Nicholls in the Irish Trainers championship at present anyway?

I'm assuming he trousered a few Yoyo's for winning the Galway Plate, and expect he wouldn't be hopelessly off at the moment?
 
If he's to take it seriously it will mean sending over a dozen or so horses and blitzing Saturday\Sunday maybe even taking in Thursday as well. I'm not sure whether that is feasible from an organisational point of view, but I don't disagree with Grey, he has the horse power to do it.
 
I would imagine he is leading the prize money at this stage, given his Munster National win as well as the Galway Plate.

Certainly has the horses to do it, and it will certainly make for fascinating viewing....but I would not be taking 11/4 or calling them generous.
 
I think if he makes a serious effort to land the Irish championship he may well jeopardise his chances of winning the GB championshio as well. He may have a lot of decent horses, but not so many that he can lift every grade one in the UK and Ireland!
 
I was under the impression that his stable is pretty well lob sided in terms of talent on the side of chasers, I'd be surprised if he could sustain a challenge on both fronts in the hurdling division
 
This is driven by prizemoney as much as trying to win the championship. A €20k novice hurdle was worth only £14k last year but is worth £16k this year. So it is looking a better proposition, the same as it was beneficial for irish horses to travel to the UK and win sterling. I can see Nicholls being given ammunition by his owners and targeting a few decent novice hurdlers and chases. He may even send one over for two races at a time, if he can find a satellite stable. Who is it going to be?

I think it is interesting and if he takes a few novice hurdles away from Meade and Mullins, it will take a lot of bumpers and maiden hurdles to pull it back.
 
He can sustain it if he has horses good enough and a bit of luck. It is a difficult organisational task and he will need a base in Ireland. If his owners are behind him he can split it out and if push comes to shove with either country he will have the numbers probably to hold the UK, so he can dedicate a few more to Ireland. It will be interesting what type of horses he brings over.
 
The thing is that he can only "hold" the UK in terms of championships if he is consistently winning grade ones and the valuable handicap hurdles/chases over here. If he is having to use those horses that would be winning grade ones over here in order to win races in Ireland, he'll lose out here. Strong as the yard is, every horse is not a Gold Cup winner and numbers will soon run out. I really think he'll struggle to win both championships. It's not as easy as some seem to think it is, even for Nicholls!

Not that I especially think it would be a bad thing for British racing to have a champion outside Pipe or Nicholls.
 
granger said:
I personally don't think he can sustain a concerted effort in both countries. Fair play to him for having the balls to try it though
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Sums it up nicely....never have a go at a British jumps trainer targetting his horses over here. Lord knows valuable events went unchallenged over here.
 
granger said:
What does it cost roughly speaking to get a horse from the UK to Ireland and back?
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A few grand. Inca used to go to Cheltenham on the Sunday night. Overnight trip and be there early monday morning. Race Tuesday and back Thursday although he could have come back Wednesday. So three to four nights, one lad, one lorry driver, a lorry and a driver. The expensive bit is getting the trainer and/or jockey over. Colm used to go in the lorry so that was cheap but I once saw a bill for Mark Prescott and George Duffield to the Curragh. The limo from the airport for Prescott alone was about £200 in old Irish money!! By the time the expenses were paid there was nothing left for the owner.
 
davidjohnson said:
Pipe's figures are swayed by a Grand National. Be doubtful that he'd win another next season.
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This is an important enough point. If neither Pipe nor King win the National then Nicholls might be able to retain his UK title with quite a bit less than 2.5m, which would give him even more scope to target the Irish title as well.
 
Having thought about it, I say fair enough, have ago. For crying out loud Robert Alner has done. It can only add to the spectacle
 
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